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View Full Version : Any chance the Preakness pace melts down?


JustRalph
05-14-2014, 10:49 PM
Any chance the pace takes its toll and the race melts down?


I am very interested to hear from our resident sharpies...........

Rex Phinney
05-14-2014, 11:33 PM
I voted no chance, IMO the class of the field are all speed or close stalker types, on a track that should be pretty friendly to them. Just don't see the quality of closer in here.

taxicab
05-15-2014, 12:52 AM
Yes.
There are four horses that want to go in here.
General a Rod/Bayern/Social Inclusion/Pablo Del Monte all prefer the front end when racing this far.
Plus you can make a case that all four of the above mentioned could be counterfeit at any distance farther than 8.5 furlongs.
The pace should be hot Saturday.

burnsy
05-15-2014, 07:06 AM
Slight chance but I think people are over estimating the fact. General A Rod was no where in the derby and really never gets the lead. Bayern is removing blinkers and stretching out. The fractions Bayern sets are usually really moderate with the blinkers on. and Pablo Del Monte may be sent but his previous races pretty much give him little hope of holding on. So Pablo may be winging it on a hope and a prayer. This could make a fast pace but he's probably a target for better horses. Social Inclusion is the fastest, rate able horse in here besides Chrome.........on this surface its looking like a two horse race. Running in the derby is usually a good indicator for this race so General A Rod may improve but he's no speed freak and Ride on Curlin is coming back but it looks like Chrome vs. SI. The other new shooters really offer no proof to like them. Meltdown is questionable to me but possible if the others feel its their only hope to beat Chrome. Slight chance.

Mad Scientist
05-15-2014, 07:38 AM
Understatement of the year alert !!!!!

" arod / Pablo / SI / bayern may prove to be counterfeit at anything longer than 8.5 furlongs "

You think ? LOL

Mad Scientist
05-15-2014, 07:40 AM
So your saying the fact they are taking blinkers off bayern means they are going to rate him ????

burnsy
05-15-2014, 07:46 AM
So your saying the fact they are taking blinkers off bayern means they are going to rate him ????

Possibly, but he didn't exactly set the world on fire with them on. 46 3 going a mile in a stakes race and the Ark derby he got a fair pace. The only true speedball is probably Pablo and what are his chances? Not much......

Mad Scientist
05-15-2014, 08:19 AM
You don't have to sell me on the fact that Pablo has no chance or that bayern got a fair pace and still folded in Arkansas. You are preaching to the choir. I am just saying that you get add in SI to that group of speed horses that has no shot.

BlueChip@DRF
05-15-2014, 10:50 AM
You don't have to sell me on the fact that Pablo has no chance or that bayern got a fair pace and still folded in Arkansas. You are preaching to the choir. I am just saying that you get add in SI to that group of speed horses that has no shot.

He might outlast all the front-runners for a piece of the pie.

Bill Cullen
05-15-2014, 12:28 PM
Three "E" type horses with 21 Quirin speed points among them plus the 3/5 M/L Chrome who willl quite near them suggests Ride On Curlin to me for a small wager on the win end.

That said, I won't mind losing five bucks if Chrome can take the Triple Crown.
What a shot in the arm that would be for the sport!

Best,

Bill C

lamboguy
05-15-2014, 12:49 PM
Three "E" type horses with 21 Quirin speed points among them plus the 3/5 M/L Chrome who willl quite near them suggests Ride On Curlin to me for a small wager on the win end.

That said, I won't mind losing five bucks if Chrome can take the Triple Crown.
What a shot in the arm that would be for the sport!

Best,

Bill C
i am betting $25 to win on him with TVG giving me 3/2 odds. i might make a big show bet on him too if the track is right.

that's all TVG is taking per person.

JustRalph
05-15-2014, 12:57 PM
22.7

46.1

110.5

?

?

Anybody care to guess?

BlinkersOn
05-15-2014, 01:04 PM
i am betting $25 to win on him with TVG giving me 3/2 odds. i might make a big show bet on him too if the track is right.

that's all TVG is taking per person.

I won't bet CC to win at 3/5. TVG gave 4/1 for the Derby, so that was fine, but 3/5 sucks. I'd rather put together a tri. on my own with CC on top.

PICSIX
05-15-2014, 09:56 PM
22.7

46.1

110.5

?

?

Anybody care to guess?

1:35.00

1:53.60

JustRalph
05-15-2014, 10:26 PM
looks like interesting opinions

this should be fun to watch anyway

tucker6
05-15-2014, 10:37 PM
1:35.00

1:53.60
you really think this group can get 1:53.6?? I think they'll be lucky to see 1:55.0 with binoculars. I see a tactical race with a slower than normal pace as I don't see wire to wire speed.

NY BRED
05-16-2014, 07:15 AM
Based upon heavy rain forecasts for Parx today and Saturday, and
IF MD is also hit by heavy rain ,I'll be strongly looking at BAYERN
as a huge force in a heavy pace scenario with CC.

Bayern catches my attention due to breeding and the ability to
run uncontested on a sloppy/muddy track.I believe this horse will
be about 8-1 due to Rosie ,so there will be some value.


My tri box will include SI, Ria Antonia, and Ride on Curlin, and
should the track be sloppy, I'll use CC to beat these 4, and use CC underneath Bayern with RA and ROC.

Good luck to All!

onefast99
05-16-2014, 08:59 AM
Based upon heavy rain forecasts for Parx today and Saturday, and
IF MD is also hit by heavy rain ,I'll be strongly looking at BAYERN
as a huge force in a heavy pace scenario with CC.

Bayern catches my attention due to breeding and the ability to
run uncontested on a sloppy/muddy track.I believe this horse will
be about 8-1 due to Rosie ,so there will be some value.


My tri box will include SI, Ria Antonia, and Ride on Curlin, and
should the track be sloppy, I'll use CC to beat these 4, and use CC underneath Bayern with RA and ROC.

Good luck to All!
Pimlico will be lightning fast by post time for the Preakness. This will be a very good race with an honest pace. Good luck.

NY BRED
05-16-2014, 07:03 PM
[QUOTE=onefast99]Pimlico will be lightning fast by post time for the Preakness. This will be a very good race with an honest pace. Good luck

If you are correct, all my bets get cut down to .20 supers.


Good luck to you a well

JustRalph
05-16-2014, 09:57 PM
such emphatic opinions via this poll

Robert Fischer
05-16-2014, 10:23 PM
If Social Inclusion and Bayern both go it's possible we could get a start similar to the 2010 Preakness. Still seems a little faster than what I expect, but it maybe gives some ideas.

Here :11: FIRST DUDE has a similar outside early pace role to SOCIAL INCLUSION tomorrow. :8: SUPER SAVER is similar to BAYERN.

ck--Bz3DB5A[/QUOTE]

big frank
05-16-2014, 10:41 PM
Social Inclusion ----- Wire to Wire , California Chrome up for 2nd

appistappis
05-16-2014, 10:54 PM
Social Inclusion ----- Wire to Wire , California Chrome up for 2nd


100% agree....S.I. is the speed of the speed.

PICSIX
05-16-2014, 11:08 PM
you really think this group can get 1:53.6?? I think they'll be lucky to see 1:55.0 with binoculars. I see a tactical race with a slower than normal pace as I don't see wire to wire speed.

You might be right. After serious analysis, here's how I see the first quarter mile.......

5 BAYERN 23.03
3 CALIFORNIA CHROME 23.14
9 PABLO DEL MONTE 23.38
8 SOCIAL INCLUSION 23.59
1 DYNAMIC IMPACT 24.01

wreckless
05-17-2014, 04:26 PM
If Social Inclusion and Bayern both go it's possible we could get a start similar to the 2010 Preakness. Still seems a little faster than what I expect, but it maybe gives some ideas.

Here :11: FIRST DUDE has a similar outside early pace role to SOCIAL INCLUSION tomorrow. :8: SUPER SAVER is similar to BAYERN.

i could see that as well.

tucker6
05-17-2014, 06:25 PM
You might be right. After serious analysis, here's how I see the first quarter mile.......

5 BAYERN 23.03
3 CALIFORNIA CHROME 23.14
9 PABLO DEL MONTE 23.38
8 SOCIAL INCLUSION 23.59
1 DYNAMIC IMPACT 24.01
I bow to your excellence. 1:54.84. You were more correct than I was. :ThmbUp:

Robert Fischer
05-17-2014, 06:38 PM
i could see that as well.

Wow Pablo Del Monte did that cross-over the field move instead.

Social Inclusion ran OK for going wide, and Bayern got crunched early and I don't think I noticed him all race.