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PaceAdvantage
05-14-2014, 12:34 PM
Finally it hit 12, I should say...

Those who have read my posts on the VIX these past few months know I've been eyeing a pattern since December 2012 I believe...where the VIX has been stuck in a bit of a sideways rut...and every time it hits 12, it tends to turn around...

I was thinking it wouldn't get to 12 this time around, and we'd finally see the big drop in the market everyone has been expecting...but it did get to 12, and now I'm thinking we will only see another semi-normal correction....

So I would not be a buyer at this point, with the VIX hovering around 12...and I would expect the VIX to turn around and head back up (and the thus the market will be heading DOWN) to around 21.5 to 22.5 before I would think about buying again...it will be interesting to see how the market reacts if the VIX gets to the 23 mark.

RaceBookJoe
05-14-2014, 01:09 PM
I saw that and immediately thought of your previous posts. nice

donmat
05-14-2014, 02:41 PM
The mid-term inverse vix etf ZIV broke out a few days ago. I'm thinking this is bullish for the S+P 500 http://tos.mx/dms/configShare/itemData/k/l/kl1M0b.png

PaceAdvantage
05-14-2014, 03:15 PM
That would be a break in the pattern also (dropping under 12)...and it's possible of course, but I don't see the market as a whole going all that far past where it is now...it should turn back down shortly if the VIX pattern holds.

PaceAdvantage
05-14-2014, 04:39 PM
Interesting and weak double top in the S&P daily chart yesterday...

If my VIX pattern holds, I doubt yesterday's high is broken anytime soon.

Saratoga_Mike
05-14-2014, 04:44 PM
good call

PaceAdvantage
05-14-2014, 04:46 PM
Well, not taking any credit yet...I posted at 11:30 and the market started tanking 3 hours later, so in that sense, a good call...but this is nothing. Talk to me when we retest 1820 and then 1740 on the S&P... ;)

Saratoga_Mike
05-15-2014, 12:39 PM
David Tepper agrees with you on the mkt.

jms62
05-15-2014, 04:07 PM
Russell 2000 is below 200 Day, the Nasdaq below both 20 and 50 day. SPX below 20 and right on the 50 day. For the first time in awhile it is underperforming the Russell and Nasdaq. It seems there is too much damage to both Nasdaq and Russell to turn it around so I think the path of least resistance is down for the SPX.. Be careful buying into the inevitable violent short covering rallies.

badcompany
05-15-2014, 06:18 PM
Russell 2000 is below 200 Day, the Nasdaq below both 20 and 50 day. SPX below 20 and right on the 50 day. For the first time in awhile it is underperforming the Russell and Nasdaq. It seems there is too much damage to both Nasdaq and Russell to turn it around so I think the path of least resistance is down for the SPX.. Be careful buying into the inevitable violent short covering rallies.

I was thinking this same thing when Apple tanked in 2013, and thought the rest of the market would eventually follow. Didn't happen.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/68a36180792575ab71aaa71e91f46266_zps3b0eee95.jpg

badcompany
05-15-2014, 06:22 PM
David Tepper agrees with you on the mkt.

You mean this? I take it to mean he's buying ;)

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/b578ebde227137653e6352cd2e39b679_zps09462d09.jpg

Saratoga_Mike
05-15-2014, 06:35 PM
Yes, that's the article. I think he was being genuine.

lamboguy
05-15-2014, 07:35 PM
great call with the vix. the confirmation came in today with the volume off the top in the S+P. that says to me that every bounce in the market is a short.

_______
05-15-2014, 09:50 PM
Yes, that's the article. I think he was being genuine.

I don't doubt he's being genuine now. I seriously question that he'll be as public when his opinion changes.

whodoyoulike
05-16-2014, 04:05 PM
You mean this? I take it to mean he's buying ;)



Are you implying you think he does the opposite of his announcements?

I don't know anything about Tepper but happened across this article.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/05/16/the-rise-of-david-tepper/

I found this interesting:

...“We know there are a million reasons to sell but only one reason to buy. Markets were modestly overbought by early Wednesday as the SPX SPX +0.16% reached the 1900 milestone for the first time ever. With no buyers left, why not take some money off the table? Did we really need to hear from Mr. Tepper to make that happen? Of course not.”

... Still, investors should always treat pronouncements by market gurus carefully. It may be better to treat their opinions as valuable data points, but not as triggers to blindly buy or sell. Here’s options strategist Bob Lang, writing at Trader Planet:

Kinda reminds me of a horse racing saying: there are a million reasons to lose a race but only one reason to win.

badcompany
05-16-2014, 05:05 PM
Are you implying you think he does the opposite of his announcements?

I don't know anything about Tepper but happened across this article.

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/05/16/the-rise-of-david-tepper/

I found this interesting:




Kinda reminds me of a horse racing saying: there are a million reasons to lose a race but only one reason to win.

His job is to make money for his clients. I don't see how tipping his hand accomplishes this task.

His pronouncement is just a bunch of nothing, anyway.

An investor should always be cautious.

highnote
05-17-2014, 05:27 PM
On March, 15 2013 the VIX was at 11.3. Three months later on June 20 it hit 20.49. That was the high until February 3, 2014 when it reached a new high of 21.44.

It closed Friday at a relatively low 12.44. The S&P closed within 4 points of its all time weekly high closing price of 1881 and had reached an all time high closing price earlier in the week of 1897.

I am not getting any signals that the market is going to have a dramatic fall. It may fall gradually or stay flat.

As long as interest rates are low people are going to keep putting their 401k and IRA money into stocks.

It's hard to find a lot of good value stocks right now because prices are high. However, here is one...

NPK is a good stock based on Benjamin Graham's criteria. It has annual sales of $423 million. It's current ratio is 4.77 which means it is financially secure and defensive. It has zero long term debt and current assets of $176 million. It has grown 186% over the past 10 years and has not had a negative year in the last 5. Its P/E ratio is a relatively low 12.26 and the Price/Book 1.58.

There are not many stocks that have these characteristics. In fact, this is the only one I could find. There are a lot of good companies, but too many of them have high P/E ratios which makes them overvalued in my opinion.

PaceAdvantage
05-18-2014, 02:35 AM
No dramatic fall predicted by me either. If it HADN'T worked its way down to 12 again, I would be thinking we're in for a major fall.

But now I see just a normal pullback coming...which is what I think I posted earlier this week.

whodoyoulike
05-18-2014, 03:46 PM
His job is to make money for his clients. I don't see how tipping his hand accomplishes this task.

His pronouncement is just a bunch of nothing, anyway.

An investor should always be cautious.

I know what you're saying. Again, I don't know anything about Tepper but someone referenced he's already a billionaire. I think it's part EGO and since he's been correct before, he figures people will be flocking to his hedge fund with all their money (and no questions asked).

I never understood why so many people are willing blindly trust other people's judgement. Hell, I can lose money as well as the best of them.

whodoyoulike
05-18-2014, 03:54 PM
... However, here is one...

NPK is a good stock based on Benjamin Graham's criteria. It has annual sales of $423 million. It's current ratio is 4.77 which means it is financially secure and defensive. It has zero long term debt and current assets of $176 million. It has grown 186% over the past 10 years and has not had a negative year in the last 5. Its P/E ratio is a relatively low 12.26 and the Price/Book 1.58.

There are not many stocks that have these characteristics. In fact, this is the only one I could find. There are a lot of good companies, but too many of them have high P/E ratios which makes them overvalued in my opinion.

Thanks, I just looked this stock up because of your comments. Interesting,... $5.00 dividend for a $70 stock. Why?? A number of other ?? I remember their products.

badcompany
05-18-2014, 04:09 PM
I wouldn't touch that stock. If history repeats itself, you'll be holding the bag for a long time. For the stock to take 50% hit like that, obviously something is very wrong.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/0DD16A14-C0DB-43D8-B924-F00FC63AD12A-3284-0000052E4F7D162E_zps611f330e.jpg

whodoyoulike
05-18-2014, 07:03 PM
I just read this article and found the VIX / S&P chart interesting. Every time there is a significant spike in the VIX the S&P dips (or vice versa). But, it may just be the nature of their relationship.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/only-a-black-swan-will-bring-back-stock-volatility-2014-05-18?pagenumber=1

The article is also kinda interesting.

whodoyoulike
05-18-2014, 08:06 PM
I wouldn't touch that stock. If history repeats itself, you'll be holding the bag for a long time. For the stock to take 50% hit like that, obviously something is very wrong.


But, they've branched out into consumer appliances, ammunition and adult incontinence products. Strange mix of revenue sources.

badcompany
05-18-2014, 08:32 PM
But, they've branched out into consumer appliances, ammunition and adult incontinence products. Strange mix of revenue sources.

Oh, Brother. When companies talk about "Diversifying" I run for the door. Sure, there are some successes, but they're more the exception.

Usually, what happens is that the company is second rate at the new businesses they're getting into and end up getting their asses handed to them by the leaders in those businesses.

I like companies that do one thing really really well.

whodoyoulike
05-19-2014, 03:49 PM
Again, I follow what you are saying but, I actually like their businesses. Just uncertain if they will mesh well. Unless, company management envisions a potentially large and growing market of old people who like to cook and shoot guns.

I don't want to discourage Highnote because actually, this is a trend I can see actually occurring. And, as an investor that $5.00 dividend looks really nice if they can sustain it.

highnote
05-19-2014, 04:00 PM
Again, I follow what you are saying but, I actually like their businesses. Just uncertain if they will mesh well. Unless, company management envisions a potentially large and growing market of old people who like to cook and shoot guns.

I don't want to discourage Highnote because actually, this is a trend I can see actually occurring. And, as an investor that $5.00 dividend looks really nice if they can sustain it.

I bought at 72, not at 135. It seems undervalued at 72, but at 135!

badcompany
05-19-2014, 07:30 PM
Again, I follow what you are saying but, I actually like their businesses. Just uncertain if they will mesh well. Unless, company management envisions a potentially large and growing market of old people who like to cook and shoot guns.

I don't want to discourage Highnote because actually, this is a trend I can see actually occurring. And, as an investor that $5.00 dividend looks really nice if they can sustain it.

That $5.00 div can also be bait that can subsequently be cut once enough stock has been unloaded on yield seeking investors.

It has happened many many times.

highnote
05-20-2014, 08:32 AM
Here is a look at how National Presto Industries, Inc. (NPK) fares in ModernGraham's opinion, based on an updated and modernized version of Benjamin Graham's requirements of defensive and enterprising investors from The Intelligent Investor:

Defensive and Enterprising Investor Tests (What is the significance of these tests, and what is PEmg ratio?):

Defensive Investor - must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 6/7

1.Adequate Size of Enterprise - market capitalization of at least $2 billion - FAIL (I disagree. This company is of adequate size)

2.Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition - current ratio greater than 2 - PASS

3.Earnings Stability - positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years - PASS

4.Dividend Record - has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years - PASS

5.Earnings Growth - earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3-year averages at beginning and end of period - PASS

6.Moderate PEmg ratio - PEmg is less than 20 - PASS

7.Moderate Price to Assets - PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 - PASS

Enterprising Investor - must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 4/5

1.Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 - current ratio greater than 1.5 - PASS

2.Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 - Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 - PASS

3.Earnings Stability - positive earnings per share for at least 5 years - PASS

4.Dividend Record - currently pays a dividend - PASS

5.Earnings growth - EPSmg greater than 5 years ago - FAIL

RaceBookJoe
05-20-2014, 10:58 AM
Oh, Brother. When companies talk about "Diversifying" I run for the door. Sure, there are some successes, but they're more the exception.

Usually, what happens is that the company is second rate at the new businesses they're getting into and end up getting their asses handed to them by the leaders in those businesses.

I like companies that do one thing really really well.

Agreed, and I don't touch stocks with rotten volume. Ugly downtrend at the moment also. Also agree that when I hear the word "diversify" from anyone, the caution flag comes out.

Saratoga_Mike
05-20-2014, 01:39 PM
Anyone have a current technical opinion of the S&P?

PaceAdvantage
05-20-2014, 01:52 PM
Mine hasn't changed....next stop, 1820.

Then I will reevaluate.

lamboguy
05-20-2014, 01:54 PM
volume off the top, every bounce is a short if you are a day player

highnote
05-20-2014, 02:55 PM
Anyone have a current technical opinion of the S&P?


My model says it will continue to go up or at least stay flat.

Unless interest rates rise or there is some unexpected event there is no reason to see why it should go down.

The prime rate has been flat.

The discount rate has been unchanged since February 2010.

The reserve requirement has been unchanged since December 2011.

Non-seasonally adjusted installment debt is under 9% and was falling from 2011 to 2013. I have not updated it for this year, but given that it was at 1.87% last year I don't see it going to 9% this year. However, it could be rising which would be worth noting.

Back in February of this year the 10 day average ratio of up volume to down volume on the NYSE was 1.97. 2.00 is a very strong positive sign. 1.97 is damn close to 2.00 so I took that as a buy signal and have been long and will stay long until I get a sell signal from this indicator or another.

badcompany
05-20-2014, 05:49 PM
Anyone have a current technical opinion of the S&P?

Short and Intermediate: Sideways

Long Term: Bullish uptrend except for tech.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/FCA90FAE-5D10-4CB2-9C4D-2437590E0188-3655-00000629B44D970B_zps3e49ec4c.jpg


http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/020F9708-5922-4D8A-995D-4CB2F00C1A25-3655-000006297C10A972_zps7cbcdec0.jpg

highnote
05-23-2014, 11:52 AM
S&P testing 1900. Maybe there is a holiday weekend effect at play?

I'm still long and will stay long until one of my indicators says sell.

I was going to sell a week ago at the high because I knew my portfolio was going to take a short term hit. But when I started adding up what the brokerage fees were going to be for round trip commissions I decided to hold. Glad I did. I'm almost back to where I was a week ago and might be a little behind had I sold and rebought. Plus the time it takes to sell and buy and it seems like I never get the best price when I buy or sell. Always seem to get skimmed.

It's tough to time the market.

Tape Reader
05-23-2014, 08:35 PM
Anyone have a current technical opinion of the S&P?

Looks like a tsunami coming. I would rather be sitting in an out-house than long this market.

highnote
05-23-2014, 10:47 PM
Looks like a tsunami coming. I would rather be sitting in an out-house than long this market.


Why do you think a tsunami is coming?

The market could go higher before it goes lower.

Eventually, it will go down, but when -- next week, next month, next year?

In the long run, say the next 25 years, I am betting it will be higher than today.

A world war may change that, or a plague or some natural disaster. If that happens then the backup and contingency plans will kick in. Own real estate in a safe country, own precious metals, etc.

I'm covered in the event of a black swan, but I want to know when this tsunami you're talking about is going to hit.

highnote
05-23-2014, 11:46 PM
Mine hasn't changed....next stop, 1820.

Then I will reevaluate.


One sell signal for me would be if the S&P hit 1824.51. This would represent a 4% drop from today's high -- assuming the S&P goes no higher.

If the S&P closes higher then the sell signal is 4% from the new high.

Tape Reader
05-24-2014, 11:23 AM
Why do you think a tsunami is coming?

The market could go higher before it goes lower.

Eventually, it will go down, but when -- next week, next month, next year?

In the long run, say the next 25 years, I am betting it will be higher than today.

A world war may change that, or a plague or some natural disaster. If that happens then the backup and contingency plans will kick in. Own real estate in a safe country, own precious metals, etc.

I'm covered in the event of a black swan, but I want to know when this tsunami you're talking about is going to hit.

Obviously, we are on different time frames. I’m long Friday SPY puts.

badcompany
05-24-2014, 04:16 PM
If you're gonna give a prediction or an idea, how about giving a time frame and a point where you admit it was wrong?

We don't know your timeframe if you don't tell us.

Saratoga_Mike
05-24-2014, 04:47 PM
Looks like a tsunami coming. I would rather be sitting in an out-house than long this market.

Please elaborate. I know basic technical analysis. I believe it's your forte - love to hear your thinking. Thx

highnote
05-24-2014, 05:01 PM
Can you define tsunami in terms if the S&P?

Tape Reader
05-24-2014, 08:43 PM
If you're gonna give a prediction or an idea, how about giving a time frame and a point where you admit it was wrong?

We don't know your timeframe if you don't tell us.

OK. Sorry. I am long Friday SPY puts. If the market is higher next Friday than it is now, I am wrong.

I am a short term trader, hours to days.

highnote
05-24-2014, 09:00 PM
OK. Sorry. I am long Friday SPY puts. If the market is higher next Friday than it is now, I am wrong.

I am a short term trader, hours to days.


Given my tools that would be a tricky trade for me to execute because the best I can say is that there is a 50% chance the S&P will be higher next Friday than last Friday's close.

In order for me to make a bet on the SPY I'd have to look at the amount invested versus the payoff.

If the market goes higher how much can you lose? Do you lose everything?

If it goes lower how much can you make?

Tape Reader
05-25-2014, 11:18 AM
Given my tools that would be a tricky trade for me to execute because the best I can say is that there is a 50% chance the S&P will be higher next Friday than last Friday's close.

In order for me to make a bet on the SPY I'd have to look at the amount invested versus the payoff.

If the market goes higher how much can you lose? Do you lose everything?

If it goes lower how much can you make?

If the market is higher next Friday than it is today, I lose my entire “bet” assuming I do not exit earlier. How much I can make on my “bet” depends on how low the market goes.

I am emphasizing “bet” so that no one confuses my option trade as an “investment.” For a better understanding of option trading, it would help to Google puts and calls.

highnote
05-25-2014, 11:36 AM
If the market is higher next Friday than it is today, I lose my entire “bet” assuming I do not exit earlier. How much I can make on my “bet” depends on how low the market goes.

I am emphasizing “bet” so that no one confuses my option trade as an “investment.” For a better understanding of option trading, it would help to Google puts and calls.


I understand what you're doing now. I was just curious if you had some sort of indicator that told you that a tsunami is coming. It sounds like you are basing your bet on "feeling" or your own sentiment -- both of which are perfectly valid, by the way.

I can often tell if the S&P will go up or down the following day by what happens at the end of trading day with the up and down volume, up and down shares and the VIX. I haven't developed a system, yet, to trade the S&P based on these indicators, but it is something I want to do.

PaceAdvantage
05-27-2014, 11:26 AM
Interesting and weak double top in the S&P daily chart yesterday...

If my VIX pattern holds, I doubt yesterday's high is broken anytime soon.Well, I was wrong about this...

highnote
05-27-2014, 11:43 AM
My model says it will continue to go up or at least stay flat.

Unless interest rates rise or there is some unexpected event there is no reason to see why it should go down.

The prime rate has been flat.

The discount rate has been unchanged since February 2010.

The reserve requirement has been unchanged since December 2011.

Non-seasonally adjusted installment debt is under 9% and was falling from 2011 to 2013. I have not updated it for this year, but given that it was at 1.87% last year I don't see it going to 9% this year. However, it could be rising which would be worth noting.

Back in February of this year the 10 day average ratio of up volume to down volume on the NYSE was 1.97. 2.00 is a very strong positive sign. 1.97 is damn close to 2.00 so I took that as a buy signal and have been long and will stay long until I get a sell signal from this indicator or another.

Based on the above I am still long and will stay long until some of these factors change.

badcompany
05-27-2014, 03:56 PM
Well, I was wrong about this...

But you admitted it, quickly. That's the key

This isn't a game where anyone bats a thousand.

In fact, guys with super high IQs are known for being bad traders as they are so used to getting every answer right that they hold on to losing trades way too long.

"B" students like me see a trade going the wrong way and say, "uh oh."

whodoyoulike
05-27-2014, 04:00 PM
... In fact, guys with super high IQs are known for being bad traders as they are so used to getting every answer right that they hold on to losing trades way too long...

I wonder if this has been my problem?

badcompany
05-27-2014, 04:35 PM
I wonder if this has been my problem?

If your GPA was over 3.75, it could be.

whodoyoulike
05-27-2014, 06:15 PM
If your GPA was over 3.75, it could be.

What's GPA?

highnote
05-29-2014, 12:02 PM
Looks like a tsunami coming. I would rather be sitting in an out-house than long this market.


http://www.cnbc.com/id/101706823?__source=yahoo%257cfinance%257cheadline% 257cheadline%257cstory&par=yahoo&doc=101706823%257cLow+market+volatility-a+p

badcompany
05-29-2014, 05:42 PM
We should start hearing S&P 2000 talk very soon.

highnote
05-29-2014, 05:54 PM
We should start hearing S&P 2000 talk very soon.


When you do it will be time to sell. ;)

badcompany
05-29-2014, 07:41 PM
When you do it will be time to sell. ;)


The corrections have been coming when S&P is ~10% above the 200sma, which is at 1800.

highnote
05-30-2014, 07:25 PM
It is very rare for the market to have a 2-1 Advance/Decline ratio over a 10 day period. It only happened 11 times from 1953 to 1991, but on those 11 occasions, on average, the S&P was up 15% after 6 months. There was never a 6 month period after the 2-1 ratio was hit that the S&P was down.

From Feb 4 to Feb 18, 2014 -- 10 trading days -- the up stocks to down stocks ratio was 1.97. That is damn close to 2-1.

The S&P closed at 1840.76 on Feb 18. A 15% gain from there would bring the S&P to 2116.87 by mid-August.

I'm going to be long until then.

highnote
06-04-2014, 02:36 PM
It is very rare for the market to have a 2-1 Advance/Decline ratio over a 10 day period. It only happened 11 times from 1953 to 1991, but on those 11 occasions, on average, the S&P was up 15% after 6 months. There was never a 6 month period after the 2-1 ratio was hit that the S&P was down.

From Feb 4 to Feb 18, 2014 -- 10 trading days -- the up stocks to down stocks ratio was 1.97. That is damn close to 2-1.

The S&P closed at 1840.76 on Feb 18. A 15% gain from there would bring the S&P to 2116.87 by mid-August.

I'm going to be long until then.


So far, this momentum factor is bearing fruit.

tucker6
06-04-2014, 05:02 PM
So far, this momentum factor is bearing fruit.
If I may ask, what happened in the six month period following those six months?

highnote
06-04-2014, 05:12 PM
If I may ask, what happened in the six month period following those six months?

I would have to look it up, but am not sure if I have the data. Got this factor from Martin Zweig's classic stock market book, "Winning on Wall Street".

tucker6
06-04-2014, 06:23 PM
thank you

badcompany
06-04-2014, 07:31 PM
It is very rare for the market to have a 2-1 Advance/Decline ratio over a 10 day period. It only happened 11 times from 1953 to 1991, but on those 11 occasions, on average, the S&P was up 15% after 6 months. There was never a 6 month period after the 2-1 ratio was hit that the S&P was down.

From Feb 4 to Feb 18, 2014 -- 10 trading days -- the up stocks to down stocks ratio was 1.97. That is damn close to 2-1.

The S&P closed at 1840.76 on Feb 18. A 15% gain from there would bring the S&P to 2116.87 by mid-August.

I'm going to be long until then.

It you noticed, that period was immediately following a sharp shake out, after which stocks tend to rise sharply. I explained this last August.

So, from a technical standpoint, that stat makes sense.

Pretty typical shake out. Prices come back to former highs, quickly, forcing those who were shaken out to buy back at higher prices.

The thing is that most people don't buy back for fear of being burned again. This allows insiders to take prices even higher.

highnote
06-05-2014, 02:44 PM
S&P rolls on...

highnote
06-06-2014, 12:27 PM
VIX is at 11.19 as I write this on Friday, June 6, 2014 at about 11:30am. This is the lowest I've seen the VIX since I started tracking it a little over a year ago. S&P currently at 1947 and is up over 7 points from yesterday's record high.

Trading volume has been a little on the light side lately, but not terribly low. It almost seems too calm.

On March, 15 2013 the VIX was at 11.3. Three months later on June 20 it hit 20.49. That was the high until February 3, 2014 when it reached a new high of 21.44.

It closed Friday at a relatively low 12.44. The S&P closed within 4 points of its all time weekly high closing price of 1881 and had reached an all time high closing price earlier in the week of 1897.

I am not getting any signals that the market is going to have a dramatic fall. It may fall gradually or stay flat.

As long as interest rates are low people are going to keep putting their 401k and IRA money into stocks.

badcompany
06-09-2014, 02:36 PM
We should start hearing S&P 2000 talk very soon.

There ya go.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/7EC85AD2-E7B7-4839-A98B-3A76D75B34A4-1748-000001B3D54EC44F_zpsb8ab9cd1.jpg

highnote
06-09-2014, 02:54 PM
S&P at 2116 is my target.

February 4th through 18th up stocks to down stocks ratio marked the second leg of the bull market that began in 2009.

Caveat... this being the second leg it might not make it to 2116. So I'll be watching for signs of a retreat.

highnote
07-01-2014, 10:54 AM
It took 2 months, but the stock is finally above where I bought it. I paid 72.38. It is at 72.93 today.


I wouldn't touch that stock. If history repeats itself, you'll be holding the bag for a long time. For the stock to take 50% hit like that, obviously something is very wrong.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/0DD16A14-C0DB-43D8-B924-F00FC63AD12A-3284-0000052E4F7D162E_zps611f330e.jpg

badcompany
07-01-2014, 05:58 PM
The stock could go on a run, but, from a long term standpoint, I don't like it.

It's 40% off its all time high at a time when the market as a whole is at an all time high.

It strikes me as a stock that had its own bubble and now the circus has packed up a moved to another town.

highnote
07-02-2014, 10:25 AM
The stock could go on a run, but, from a long term standpoint, I don't like it.

It's 40% off its all time high at a time when the market as a whole is at an all time high.

It strikes me as a stock that had its own bubble and now the circus has packed up a moved to another town.


I only like it as long as the fundamentals are good. That could be until the next reporting period or for many years. As Buffett says, "Price is what you pay. Value is what you get." According to the metrics I use it is undervalued.

Here are some of the easiest metrics to understand:

It's an adequately sized company with over 400 million in sales.

It has zero long term debt.

It has grown 168 percent over the past 10 years.

The PE ratio is about 13. As long as it is under 15 I will hold. If it gets too expensive I will probably sell and take the profits.

lamboguy
07-02-2014, 10:37 AM
gold mining stocks look like they have some oxygen in them. time to lock in and load up.

highnote
07-02-2014, 02:39 PM
gold mining stocks look like they have some oxygen in them. time to lock in and load up.


I agree. They got beat down pretty badly. Could be time to buy.

badcompany
07-02-2014, 06:31 PM
I agree. They got beat down pretty badly. Could be time to buy.


Or, it could be a short squeeze or yet another trap to rope in the Goldbugs.

highnote
07-02-2014, 09:29 PM
Or, it could be a short squeeze or yet another trap to rope in the Goldbugs.


Definitely! Kind of like putting in a claim on a horse -- is the horse solid or damaged goods. Buyer beware.

Here are 5 year charts for Hecla and BVN -- they have gotten beaten down badly. They could go lower, but then again, maybe the worst is over?

highnote
02-20-2015, 05:05 PM
Back in June of 2014 I made 2116 my target for the S&P. It's almost there.


S&P at 2116 is my target.

February 4th through 18th up stocks to down stocks ratio marked the second leg of the bull market that began in 2009.

Caveat... this being the second leg it might not make it to 2116. So I'll be watching for signs of a retreat.

Tape Reader
02-20-2015, 08:01 PM
Back in June of 2014 I made 2116 my target for the S&P. It's almost there.

Good stuff. Could you please elaborate more on your prediction?

highnote
02-25-2015, 01:17 AM
Good stuff. Could you please elaborate more on your prediction?


I talked about the method in an earlier post in this same thread. It's a "momentum" indicator.

Basically, you find the advancing stock to declining stock ratio over a 10 day period. When it is 2 to 1 over a 10 day period that is a very bullish sign. It is a rare event. When it happens the market goes up, on average, 15% over the next 6 months.

It took 12 months to hit my projected target, but the direction was correct. I have been trading on the long side since that indicator appeared in February of 2014.

highnote
02-25-2015, 02:25 PM
Back in June of 2014 I made 2116 my target for the S&P. It's almost there.

Today's intra-day high is 2119. I predicted the direction of the S&P correctly, but not the time it would take to hit the target.

It took 12 months for the S&P to hit 2116 from the level it was at last February. I predicted it would take 6 months.

But maybe that's a good thing... maybe it shows that this is a long, slow, protracted bull market, rather than a volatile market that will end with the bubble bursting?

Tape Reader
03-08-2015, 08:23 PM
Today's intra-day high is 2119. I predicted the direction of the S&P correctly, but not the time it would take to hit the target.

It took 12 months for the S&P to hit 2116 from the level it was at last February. I predicted it would take 6 months.

But maybe that's a good thing... maybe it shows that this is a long, slow, protracted bull market, rather than a volatile market that will end with the bubble bursting?

Congrats and good work. Any more predictions?

highnote
03-09-2015, 02:09 AM
Congrats and good work. Any more predictions?

I'm still long for the time being. As Martin Zweig said, "Don't fight the fed."

So until interest rates start to rise I'll be in equities.

The Zweig model still points to being long.

highnote
05-14-2015, 09:32 PM
S&P closed at 2121 today. It's been kind of flat since I posted about this back on March 8. VIX is around 12.

With interest rates low and negative interest rates on bonds in Europe, besides real estate, equities seem like a good place to invest -- especially dividend paying stocks.

I'm still long, although, the old saying is "sell in May and go away."

So I've got some cash sitting on the sidelines in case some bargains appear.



Today's intra-day high is 2119. I predicted the direction of the S&P correctly, but not the time it would take to hit the target.

It took 12 months for the S&P to hit 2116 from the level it was at last February. I predicted it would take 6 months.

But maybe that's a good thing... maybe it shows that this is a long, slow, protracted bull market, rather than a volatile market that will end with the bubble bursting?

badcompany
05-14-2015, 10:02 PM
My high water mark was on March 18 and I haven't hit it since. This happened on the same day that Yellen opened her mouth about interest rates. This was also the day oil bottomed. Coincidence?

The stocks which pulled back were easily outperforming the market (see below). Hopefully, these stocks were just refueling for a further rise.

I'm still Bullish and fully invested. My guess is that the big rise in European stocks early in the year caused a flood of hot money into those markets, paving the way for insiders to run up U.S stocks without excessive outsider participation.

barn32
05-16-2015, 01:13 PM
When the markets go up the VIX goes down. Why? When the markets go down the VIX goes up. Why is it that only down marks contribute to volatility?

highnote
05-16-2015, 01:40 PM
When the markets go up the VIX goes down. Why? When the markets go down the VIX goes up. Why is it that only down marks contribute to volatility?


The VIX: (from Wikipedia) represents one measure of the market's expectation of stock market volatility over the next 30 day period.

There are other measures. The VIX is just one indicator.

I have seen days when the S&P goes up and so does the VIX and vice versa -- S&P down and VIX down. So there is not always an inverse relationship.

badcompany
05-16-2015, 06:42 PM
When the markets go up the VIX goes down. Why? When the markets go down the VIX goes up. Why is it that only down marks contribute to volatility?


Down markets are more dangerous than up.

reckless
05-17-2015, 08:33 AM
Down markets are more dangerous than up.

Isn't the VIX trade no different than any trade in the market?

I admit that the VIX volatility gets the girls and boys on CNBC, Fox and Bloomberg all in a thither now and again and I always ask myself why?

Every stock I ever bought or sold was not made because of how the VIX was reacting. I could be totally wrong in ignoring this, I'll admit, but just like a lot of stuff we're bombarded with on a daily basis in the financial 'media', this is an overdone and a primarily useless metric, imo.

badcompany
05-17-2015, 10:58 AM
Isn't the VIX trade no different than any trade in the market?

I admit that the VIX volatility gets the girls and boys on CNBC, Fox and Bloomberg all in a thither now and again and I always ask myself why?

Every stock I ever bought or sold was not made because of how the VIX was reacting. I could be totally wrong in ignoring this, I'll admit, but just like a lot of stuff we're bombarded with on a daily basis in the financial 'media', this is an overdone and a primarily useless metric, imo.

I haven't found that the VIX has any predictive power. It's more of an indicator of what's happening in the present, and, if the The current state of the VIX does correlate with what occurs in the future, it's simply a matter of the current trend continuing.

At the end of the day, it's it's just another way to bet the market.

If applied to racing, it would be akin to a bet on the percentage of favorites that win in a day, with a below average percentage being a "High Volatility" day.