Overlay's Sin

[ultracapper]

9th race yesterday at Santa Anita, Avila's It Is Living Water, $2.90 to win at post, figured huge and probably should have won the race. However, Mullins's Pressure Time, $7.90 to win at post, also figured off the freshening. IILW gets blocked straightening for home, PT rolls by and wins clear. It's a drag when a $17 horse you saw clearly had a big shot beats your damn- good-thing 5/2.

I think it was Thaskalos that said if you don't bet your price horses, you don't deserve to win at this game...........and you won't.

Buggered again.

[Overlay]

From the thread title, I thought that you were going to post something incriminating about me. :)

You have my sympathy, but that outcome is an example of why I base my handicapping on compartmentalized statistics rather than intuition or qualitative judgment (because I then have greater confidence in my wagering decisions, since I know exactly why I assigned a particular odds figure to each horse), and also why I look at the chances of each horse in the field in comparison to its odds, rather than eliminating horses one-by-one until I'm left with only the horse that I consider the most likely winner as a possible play.

[LottaKash]

From the thread title, I thought that you were going to post something incriminating about me. :)

.

Haha, that was the first thing that came to my mind, as well...:D

[ultracapper]

From the thread title, I thought that you were going to post something incriminating about me. :)

You have my sympathy, but that outcome is an example of why I base my handicapping on compartmentalized statistics rather than intuition or qualitative judgment (because I then have greater confidence in my wagering decisions, since I know exactly why I assigned a particular odds figure to each horse), and also why I look at the chances of each horse in the field in comparison to its odds, rather than eliminating horses one-by-one until I'm left with only the horse that I consider the most likely winner as a possible play.

Knew it would grab your attention because you and I had a short trade off on this about 2 weeks ago. When MGarcia went by, I thought of you. Right away. Then I swore for about 5 minutes. That's my M.O.

[Overlay]

I clarified with ultracapper that the "sin" being referenced was basing wagering decisions on winning probability at the expense of betting value, which is something that I have tried to caution against, rather than something that I was viewed as practicing. :)

The previous "short trade-off" involving ultracapper and me that ultracapper mentioned pertained to our respective posts in this recent prior thread on "How People Bet":

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=112869

[plainolebill]

Garcia was my only reservation about that horse, fortunately it was a smallish field and he had a pretty good post.

[ultracapper]

Yes, I committed what would be the sin in Overlay's philosophy, and paid the exact penalty he articulated in the post he referenced.

[ultracapper]

Garcia was my only reservation about that horse, fortunately it was a smallish field and he had a pretty good post.

Garcia gave me no hesitation as he had been on the horse for all it's previous races, and after the freshening, received, and accepted the call to ride him back. I actually had no reservations about this horse at all. I just loved Avila's though. Closed like a rocket two back, ran forward and through the finish at a mile in his last, and cutting back in a field he could stay in contact with the early pace. Avila's was a no brainer.

[plainolebill]

Garcia has trouble on the turf and more so in sprints - thus the concern.