Tioga Downs

[traynor]

I know that most readers would not wager on (or at least admit to wagering on) races at Tioga Downs. However, for those who may have nothing better to do, or who have OCD about analyzing horse races, it might be useful to give a bit of extra consideration to horses that were third or better at the stretch call in their last race and are driven today by one of the top 4 or 5 drivers.

The same thing applies to a horse trained by one of the top 4 or 5 trainers.

It is the stretch call that is most advantageous. Return falls off considerably when the finish is factored in. That position is best ignored. It seems that bettors tend to be unduly impressed by close finishes, and unduly dismissive of entries that seem to have "quit in the stretch."

[LottaKash]

I know that most readers would not wager on (or at least admit to wagering on) races at Tioga Downs. However, for those who may have nothing better to do, or who have OCD about analyzing horse races, it might be useful to give a bit of extra consideration to horses that were third or better at the stretch call in their last race and are driven today by one of the top 4 or 5 drivers.

The same thing applies to a horse trained by one of the top 4 or 5 trainers.

It is the stretch call that is most advantageous. Return falls off considerably when the finish is factored in. That position is best ignored. It seems that bettors tend to be unduly impressed by close finishes, and unduly dismissive of entries that seem to have "quit in the stretch."

Nice insight Traynor, thanks...

I play that place regularly when in season....I use "guerilla tactics" there, patiently wait for the crowd's mistakes, and have been rewarded with some obscene prices at times....:jump:

[traynor]

Nice insight Traynor, thanks...

I play that place regularly when in season....I use "guerilla tactics" there, patiently wait for the crowd's mistakes, and have been rewarded with some obscene prices at times....:jump:

Obscene prices are good.

[cmp92]

I know that most readers would not wager on (or at least admit to wagering on) races at Tioga Downs. However, for those who may have nothing better to do, or who have OCD about analyzing horse races, it might be useful to give a bit of extra consideration to horses that were third or better at the stretch call in their last race and are driven today by one of the top 4 or 5 drivers.

The same thing applies to a horse trained by one of the top 4 or 5 trainers.

It is the stretch call that is most advantageous. Return falls off considerably when the finish is factored in. That position is best ignored. It seems that bettors tend to be unduly impressed by close finishes, and unduly dismissive of entries that seem to have "quit in the stretch."
I don't wager on Tioga frequently, not because I don't like the place, but because I'm comfortable with where I bet right now. Outside of the Grand Circuit stuff and NYSS, I maybe wager on a few cards. However, I'll keep this in mind when I do play there.

[grant miller]

last sat ,15,000 people 98,000 total handle last sun bout 580 fans over 125,000 handle:confused:

[traynor]

last sat ,15,000 people 98,000 total handle last sun bout 580 fans over 125,000 handle:confused:

Are those the figures for ontrack wagers only? The numbers look whacky.

[traynor]

http://owegopennysaver.com/index.php/2014/05/04/photos-derby-day-at-tioga-downs-may-3-2014/

[grant miller]

I got the numbers off the tioga downs results web- I was down there today , great crowd , but little betting- a big complant was 0 minites to post and the start was 3-5 min. to start.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

I got the numbers off the tioga downs results web- I was down there today , great crowd , but little betting- a big complant was 0 minites to post and the start was 3-5 min. to start.

The old Northfield drag. I really don't understand how that spread out through the sport. Northfield was the first to drag out the post parade usually bringing the horse out of the race paddock with one minute to post. I guess their thinking is centered on simulcast money. Betting multiple tracks, some players tend to bet numbers on tracks using the minutes to post as the next track to play. Makes no sense to me but I know some of these guys personally.

I guess being bored one might be watching the board with respect to the probables or odds and may bet some back up wagers. The delay is intended to increase the handle but it in-alienated me to the point I went to the dogs (literally) in 2013 doing just Greyhound bets. Post time should mean time to get them in line to start the race. Woodbine/Mohawk know the meaning of Post time.

[traynor]

I got the numbers off the tioga downs results web- I was down there today , great crowd , but little betting- a big complant was 0 minites to post and the start was 3-5 min. to start.

Expect that to grow in popularity--at least among those who use "computer-assisted wagering," spread bets over a period of time, then have the option to either load up or cancel bets at the last minute.

The trick is not so much in picking the winners as it is leveraging those winners in a manner that maximizes profit.

[cmp92]

Just played the 9th race today at Tioga. Aaron Byron had the favorite. He gets the lead and then lets the eventual 5th place horse take the lead going past the stands. Rather than reclaim, Byron sits second, climbing all over the horse in front of him. The leading horse eventually gets swallowed up as they hit the head of the stretch as Byron is having fits trying to find room for his horse. He flies home for second. Bad drive, should have been an easy winner.

[badcompany]

I've always found that to be suspicious.

What were the odds on the horse that took the lead?

[cmp92]

I've always found that to be suspicious.

What were the odds on the horse that took the lead?
7-2 I believe. Praire Jaguar was the horse's name.

[badcompany]

7-2 I believe. Praire Jaguar was the horse's name.

It's more suspicious when it's a longshot in front. There was a driver named David Ingraham whom I noticed would often give up the lead on a favorite to a longshot and not take it back.

He was subsequently charged with race fixing.

[LottaKash]

7-2 I believe. Praire Jaguar was the horse's name.

Yes it was Prairie Jaguar....

I didn't see anything out of the ordinary in this race....

I didn't yesterday after reviewing that race, and again, after reviewing the same race again today...

Prairie Jaguar is easily the quickest and swiftest to the 3/4's than any of these...So, imo, #4 , the fave, Fireyouguns, was wise to let the #9 clear rather than duke it out with him....The 2-hole was the right place for #4, as imo, he isn't really that handy a horse...He needs needs to be forwardly placed each time out, and he was in the 2-hole sitting behind a horse that can take them most of the way, and it was a good spot to be in, imo...Fireyourguns was certainly good enough to win, but as luck would have it, not yesterday, is all I see here...

Besides the winner #7 Eastend Eddie had, numbers-wise, a clear late speed advantage, plus he was shipping out of PcD with a drop in class to boot...

I thought the race was as honest as can be....Just good competitive hoss'-racin"....:lol:

[cmp92]

Yes it was Prairie Jaguar....

I didn't see anything out of the ordinary in this race....

I didn't yesterday after reviewing that race, and again, after reviewing the same race again today...

Prairie Jaguar is easily the quickest and swiftest to the 3/4's than any of these...So, imo, #4 , the fave, Fireyouguns, was wise to let the #9 clear rather than duke it out with him....The 2-hole was the right place for #4, as imo, he isn't really that handy a horse...He needs needs to be forwardly placed each time out, and he was in the 2-hole sitting behind a horse that can take them most of the way, and it was a good spot to be in, imo...Fireyourguns was certainly good enough to win, but as luck would have it, not yesterday, is all I see here...

Besides the winner #7 Eastend Eddie had, numbers-wise, a clear late speed advantage, plus he was shipping out of PcD with a drop in class to boot...

I thought the race was as honest as can be....Just good competitive hoss'-racin"....:lol:
I'm still convinced it was a poor drive. Prairie Jaguar was parked out for a long way there and you could see Marohn getting after him as they went around the turn into the backstretch. Byron's horse (Fireyourguns) is clearly loaded but he waits for the passing lane. He had the opportunity to pull out down the backstretch. That's a somewhat unorthodox move but not totally unheard of. I really think a reclaim was a prudent move. Like I said, Prairie Jaguar was parked a long way and I think he would have been content with a pocket trip.

I am not alleging that this race was fixed by any means, I just think Byron gave a bad drive. I appreciate the opinion and a friendly difference of opinion.

[LottaKash]

I am not alleging that this race was fixed by any means, I just think Byron gave a bad drive. I appreciate the opinion and a friendly difference of opinion.

As it turned out, Byron could have and maybe should have done it differently, and I will bet you after the race was over, he thought about it more than you or I...haha...

Still, no harm or foul here imo...That's why I love this game so much....Another day and Byron doesn't yield, and maybe wins it, or, maybe not.... It is a driver's call, and the fave, as good as he was on form, still has this ability limit, and perhaps Byron drove accordingly after all, given that he knew his horse's ability-limit(s)....

[mrroyboy]

I bet this horse before. Don't trust it at all.

[cmp92]

As it turned out, Byron could have and maybe should have done it differently, and I will bet you after the race was over, he thought about it more than you or I...haha...

Still, no harm or foul here imo...That's why I love this game so much....Another day and Byron doesn't yield, and maybe wins it, or, maybe not.... It is a driver's call, and the fave, as good as he was on form, still has this ability limit, and perhaps Byron drove accordingly after all, given that he knew his horse's ability-limit(s)....
Oh I agree, I'm sure he thought about it after the race. He closed very well and had lots of pace late, which is what really bugs me about him not taking the lead back. Sometimes what the bettors see on TV or in the grandstand isn't as obvious when you're in the bike.

By the way, I had him to place anyway so I still cashed. I do have some success betting him, but I noticed he does bounce around the New York tracks. He races at Buffalo, Vernon, and Tioga. I guess that's what he needs to do for a living and maybe catch on with a good trainer.

[cmp92]

I bet this horse before. Don't trust it at all.
I have bet on Fireyourguns before and have had success using him in my wagers. I actually remember this horse racing on the Buffalo/Batavia circuit and being very competitive and successful in the upper ranks (Open Pace). The horse's body language suggests that he had tons. Like I said in the previous post, I still had a winning ticket. I figured this might be a decent topic for discussion and see if anyone else had thoughts.

[BettinBilly]

Good point Traynor.

I'm a very infrequent Harness player. However, I have played Tioga. I went to college not too far from there and I am glad the place is finally open and a going concern.

[badcompany]

Obscene prices are good.

Unfortunately the obscenities work both ways, as with most small handle tracks, the odds you see when your bet is placed often has little relation to the final odds.

[LottaKash]

Unfortunately the obscenities work both ways, as with most small handle tracks, the odds you see when your bet is placed often has little relation to the final odds.

Quite true Bad, but sometimes, I would just love a certain horse's chances, only to see him hanging around 4/5 or Even, so I would back off, and not make the play only to find that the odds on my little goodie went up to 3 or 4 to 1, just as they gave the word "go"......haha...

It does get a bit frustrating at times, about the late odds changes, so nowadays when I have a serious contender for the win, I will try to stay focused and ready for bargaintime right up to the bell....Usually I will que-in the play and just wait as long as possible for the overlay to pop up, and then push the button....

[cmp92]

FYI

Fireyourguns set the track record at Vernon Downs today. He did it on the front end.

1:48.0

[willphorse]

As many know Tioga is my home track! This place needs to do SOMETHING! It was growing in popularity, until Gural focused everything on The Big M AND is trying to save every penny to push for table games. They abandoned Friday night Dollar-Draft (which attracted many casual bettors), Sunday (Family Day) is getting worse with this past Sunday not even having the kids "bouncy houses" open. Usually, after the horse play (a big attraction) people clear right out! I highly suggest some MAJOR marketing strategies to take place or this will become a farm field!

As for the racing, some of the worst. Look at the results. Horses that are going 1:58, move up in class to face 1:55 horses, and BLOWS THEM AWAY?! Drivers not urging in the stretch after pulling the pocket with the 3/5 favorite. I love this track, and continue to go on a daily basis, but when a 15-1 over 5-1 exacta pays $30... Is it worth it?!

[cmp92]

As many know Tioga is my home track! This place needs to do SOMETHING! It was growing in popularity, until Gural focused everything on The Big M AND is trying to save every penny to push for table games. They abandoned Friday night Dollar-Draft (which attracted many casual bettors), Sunday (Family Day) is getting worse with this past Sunday not even having the kids "bouncy houses" open. Usually, after the horse play (a big attraction) people clear right out! I highly suggest some MAJOR marketing strategies to take place or this will become a farm field!

As for the racing, some of the worst. Look at the results. Horses that are going 1:58, move up in class to face 1:55 horses, and BLOWS THEM AWAY?! Drivers not urging in the stretch after pulling the pocket with the 3/5 favorite. I love this track, and continue to go on a daily basis, but when a 15-1 over 5-1 exacta pays $30... Is it worth it?!
Interesting take. I had a good time last year when I went for the Cane Pace. That exacta sounds typical of small tracks, where the win bet and exacta pay almost the same :bang:

[willphorse]

Big race days, such as Cane Pace, Roll with Joe, etc., attract a good crowd and good pools, but typical race days are not anywhere near as good as it used to be!

[cmp92]

Big race days, such as Cane Pace, Roll with Joe, etc., attract a good crowd and good pools, but typical race days are not anywhere near as good as it used to be!
That's a shame. The place is a nice venue.