Len Friedman weighs in on CA Chrome

[classhandicapper]

http://www.americasbestracing.net/en/the-latest/blogs/2014/5/8/california-chrome-vs-speed-figure-gurus/

[DJofSD]

Remind me again, what's the highest rating they've given a 3 year old, 2, 3, 4?

[cj]

Pretty sure they Chrome's fastest race as a 2yo still. Personally, I find that very hard to take seriously.

[RunForTheRoses]

The analysis/number seems what one would expect from them as they are purists who don't think track speed doesn't change much race to race. It is hard to prove but I think CJs and others explanation about the watering and wing, etc seem warranted but...Thorograph, which does believe in sudden changes in track speed gave a much faster number to CC, I believe I read a -3 which compares with a 2 on the Sheets (at least 5 points used to be a good way to even the difference out, not sure if it still is)

[classhandicapper]

Pretty sure they Chrome's fastest race as a 2yo still. Personally, I find that very hard to take seriously.

I like Len. He's been nice to me on his board even though I only purchase his product a few times a year and I've disagreed with him on some things. I understand some of his arguments about splitting variants and breaking races out, but I think his method also has downsides. This is one example. I think CC is better than he is giving him credit for, but I more or less agree with him that someone is going to run faster than this group is now at some point this year.

[BettinBilly]

Thanks for posting, OP.

Len's point of view is common. So many speed Cappers are saying the Beyers are too low for a superstar to shine with a Crown win this year. Yet Chrome wins Jewel 1. So, if Len is right and this is a "Terrible Crop", then you believe that he will inevitably fail when running against a truly faster horse. Or, you think he simply runs "fast enough" to win regardless of speed figures.

We'll know soon.

[Mad Scientist]

I am sure that Chrome will be dialed down in the Preakness just like he has been in his five previous wins , so the critics will probably complain again that his time was not elite enough, and that's the smart thing to do . The horse has been heavily raced when compared to most of the other horses and that was before the triple crown races even started and now they are asking chrome to dance all the dances something that no other horse is going to have to do unless they decide to run back roc or arod in the Belmont.

But I have a feeling they are going to let this horse hit all gears in the Belmont and put on a real show for the fans. I think his Belmont win is going to be spectacular. I don't think Victor is going to let up on him at all. I expect a 10 length win at minimum ...

[Hank]

I am sure that Chrome will be dialed down in the Preakness just like he has been in his five previous wins , so the critics will probably complain again that his time was not elite enough, and that's the smart thing to do . The horse has been heavily raced when compared to most of the other horses and that was before the triple crown races even started and now they are asking chrome to dance all the dances something that no other horse is going to have to do unless they decide to run back roc or arod in the Belmont.

But I have a feeling they are going to let this horse hit all gears in the Belmont and put on a real show for the fans. I think his Belmont win is going to be spectacular. I don't think Victor is going to let up on him at all. I expect a 10 length win at minimum ...

Your handle is perfect.

[Sinner369]

Pretty sure they Chrome's fastest race as a 2yo still. Personally, I find that very hard to take seriously.

Everyone is criticizing the slow time of the Kentucky Derby.......I find that it is a blessing..........Chrome only had to go as fast as he had to........the horse has not bottom out and he has two more races to go.

I would be more concerned if he set a track record; he might have peaked too soon..........so he still has a lot left for the next two races.

[Edward DeVere]

There is a giant hole in this story, which is that Beyer's figures are NOT uniformly poor for CC. Ragozin's figures ARE uniformly poor for CC, but Beyer gives CC very nice figures for races previous to the Derby.

If you read this story, and only this story, you would think that Beyer and Ragozin are in agreement as to this horse's overall ability - but they AREN'T.

Members of the press drive me absolutely crazy with their incompetence. . . .

[lamboguy]

doe Len Freedman make figures for Sha Tin?

[SandyW]

I am sure that Chrome will be dialed down in the Preakness just like he has been in his five previous wins , so the critics will probably complain again that his time was not elite enough, and that's the smart thing to do . The horse has been heavily raced when compared to most of the other horses and that was before the triple crown races even started and now they are asking chrome to dance all the dances something that no other horse is going to have to do unless they decide to run back roc or arod in the Belmont.

But I have a feeling they are going to let this horse hit all gears in the Belmont and put on a real show for the fans. I think his Belmont win is going to be spectacular. I don't think Victor is going to let up on him at all. I expect a 10 length win at minimum ...

He sure looks like he hardly broke a sweat in his wins, should have plenty left in the tank.
This is a real special horse.

[PICSIX]

Everyone is criticizing the slow time of the Kentucky Derby.......I find that it is a blessing..........Chrome only had to go as fast as he had to........the horse has not bottom out and he has two more races to go.

I would be more concerned if he set a track record; he might have peaked too soon..........so he still has a lot left for the next two races.

On either TVG or HRTV it was reported that past Derby winners that ran a Beyer speed figure less than or equal to their prep race figures won the Preakness, with one exception and he ran 2nd.

[NY BRED]

Winning in a slow time may be a great story about CC having enough
fuel in the tank to be in the right spot to win the Preakness against
some of the slow opponents he trounced in the Derby, But...

looking at his early career in 2013 he had 7 starts and 3 wins on synthetic,
at distances of 4 1/2 fg,5 1/2 and 7fg.

He then was switched in 2014 to dirt, winning at 1 1/16, 1 1/16, 1 1/8 ,
and the Derby @ 1 1/4 all races previous to the Derby
took place in California.

So, he has now won 4 straight , and is pointed to a shorter distance,
tighter turns, and at this point a smaller field than the Derby. To the
general public and press, CC appears to be a lock.

While I still believe this is a great story to the general public who
think CC may finally be The Triple Crown winner, I simply
can't imagine CC to be an "iron" horse able to withstand heavy pace
pressure which he will face in the Preakness AND Belmont all within
a relatively short time span.

If, in fact he succeeds, this is a story that will turn the Breeding
industry stats and experts upside down, and maybe racing will
gain some new fans and owners..

[classhandicapper]

There is a giant hole in this story, which is that Beyer's figures are NOT uniformly poor for CC. Ragozin's figures ARE uniformly poor for CC, but Beyer gives CC very nice figures for races previous to the Derby.



That's a good point.

In other threads I argued that this group looks just fine on the Beyer figures they earned in the major preps leading up to the Derby.

CC was above PAR.

Wicked Strong and Danza were around PAR.

Wildcat Red and General A Rod ran triple digit Beyers a race earlier.

The field looked just fine going into the race based on Beyers. It's just this controversial low figure under windy and other difficult to discern conditions that is causing the conversation.

[Bullet Plane]

The Performance figures of Steve Roman indicate that the Derby of 2014 was the fastest since Big Browns Derby.

Thoro-Graph figures indicate a new top for California Chrome in the Derby (and a pair up for Danza)

The Sheets and Beyer both indicate a race that was in the slowest since the 1970's.

TimeformUS figures put the race somewhere in between.

This Derby is a very hard one to figure.....

[quickster]

TG does not have Chrome with a new top.

[Bullet Plane]

Well, someone else said he did on this forum. So I took their word for it.

I just now consulted their redboard and see a 0 which is faster than anything else on the sheet.

So, it looks like the poster was correct.

Are you talking about some other product?

[luisbe]

Invasor did not care for speed figures, he only refused to lose no matter how the raced was developing.

[quickster]

Chrome ran a previous 0 in the San Felipe, for him to have run a new top in the Derby he would have had to have run a -1 in the Derby. TG has his Derby race as a Pair.