Handicapping Turf Races: Books?

[bigbrown]

Are there any books where one can learn about specifically Handicapping Turf Races?

[thaskalos]

There is a lot of misinformation about handicapping turf races out there, IMO.

If this last-quarter fixation was as good as advertised...then I would be a millionaire by now.

[classhandicapper]

If this last-quarter fixation was as good as advertised...then I would be a millionaire by now.

I'm coming around to that view also.

Having a horse with some late brilliance is probably a small advantage. So many turf races have slow paces, it's tough for a more even paced horse to get up under those conditions. But other than that and helping to recognize the really slow paces that may have impacted the final time and result, IMO the last quarter is largely the result of the fractions and not hugely powerful most of the time.

I mostly "class" the races and look at the probable setup. I just glance at the speed figures and closing times. Doesn't mean I am right though. Turf is not my strong suit unless I find a real hidden class standout.

[bigbrown]

There is a lot of misinformation about handicapping turf races out there, IMO.

If this last-quarter fixation was as good as advertised...then I would be a millionaire by now.


Did you find any (at least somewhat) reliable source of information about Turf handicapping? Not necessarily books, anything...

[Saratoga_Mike]

Did you find any (at least somewhat) reliable source of information about Turf handicapping? Not necessarily books, anything...

Beyer on Speed has a great chapter on turf handicapping - it doesn't contain a ton of info, but it's very useful for turf routes.

[jk3521]

Beyer on Speed has a great chapter on turf handicapping - it doesn't contain a ton of info, but it's very useful for turf routes.
http://books.google.com/books?id=rztm-KHHBt4C&pg=PA160&lpg=PA160&dq=beyer+on+speed+/turf+horses&source=bl&ots=NsE_3FJaE9&sig=-7_LwN

[RaceBookJoe]

Beyer on Speed has a great chapter on turf handicapping - it doesn't contain a ton of info, but it's very useful for turf routes.

That chapter was a turning point for me. It made MPH more clear to me. I had always avoided turf races..wasn't as widespread when I learned to handicap in the 70's. I tweaked his chart a bit, just for simplicity and then added my own tweaks...now turf races are my favorite to play. Jim Quinn had a video on youtube at one time about turf racing, not sure its still there, but was ok.

[Saratoga_Mike]

That chapter was a turning point for me. It made MPH more clear to me. I had always avoided turf races..wasn't as widespread when I learned to handicap in the 70's. I tweaked his chart a bit, just for simplicity and then added my own tweaks...now turf races are my favorite to play. Jim Quinn had a video on youtube at one time about turf racing, not sure its still there, but was ok.

I still use the chart - it's terrific in its simplicity.

[thaskalos]

Beyer on Speed has a great chapter on turf handicapping - it doesn't contain a ton of info, but it's very useful for turf routes.
I enjoyed this chapter too...and I found the "combination" method that Beyer suggested -- where the last furlong adjustment was added to the Beyer figure -- to be very enlightening. I would have liked the method even more if it actually worked as well in practice as it did in theory.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I enjoyed this chapter too...and I found the "combination" method that Beyer suggested -- where the last furlong adjustment was added to the Beyer figure -- to be very enlightening. I would have liked the method even more if it actually worked as well in practice as it did in theory.

It doesn't work well, imo, at B and C-level tracks. I've had good luck with it at NYRA.

[thaskalos]

Did you find any (at least somewhat) reliable source of information about Turf handicapping? Not necessarily books, anything...
In my opinion...the speed horses are not as disadvantaged on the turf as many players think...nor are the last fractions that reliable when it comes to identifying the best closers. I would say more...but it aggravates me to use this damned phone to type lengthy posts. I will go into more detail tonight, when I get to my computer.

[thaskalos]

-- where the last furlong adjustment was added to the Beyer figure --

Sorry...I meant to say "last fraction adjustment"...

[fmolf]

Sorry...I meant to say "last fraction adjustment"...
I agree a lot of times a sharp horse can get to the front and never look back ...because noone else wants to go with him....I look forthis play all the time.Favorite play that garners some good prices is the frontrunner first on turf.These horses can sometimes get loose on the lead and go all the way!

[RaceBookJoe]

I still use the chart - it's terrific in its simplicity.

Same here, helps me eliminate horses sometimes and gives me a general idea of who MIGHT be able to make a move late. I don't bet based off that chart directly, but its a tool to use for me. Also, i cant find the Quinn video on youtube anymore, must have been taken down. I took some notes on it though so if i can actually find said notes and then find something worthwhile in them i will write here with any info. I don't remember anything earth shaking though.

[AndyC]

Beyer on Speed has a great chapter on turf handicapping - it doesn't contain a ton of info, but it's very useful for turf routes.

I had the pleasure of spending a great deal of time with Beyer just prior to him writing the book. He was kind enough to mention our discussions regarding turf racing on pages 162 and 163 of the book.

[Tom]

I use the method Quin outlined in Figure Handicapping. Instead of using the Clf Alw pars, I use simply 24-30-36 seconds for the par, RAW times. I assign a Beyer-type figure for the third fractions from the attached chart. More credit is given to the longer distance, rewarding a sustained late move. This is the exact same chart I have used or years at Bel, Sar, AP, WO, and I have hit a lot of good winners at 5-1 to 10-1.

I am currently checking this out with TFUS adjusted times, but not a lot of races yet.

[JohnGalt1]

Are there any books where one can learn about specifically Handicapping Turf Races?

In Michael Pizzola's book Handicapping Magic, he advocates using all turf races in the pp's in evaluating each runner.

Doing that has improved my hit rate and more important, prices.

I find the best/fastest turf race and second best--to see if the best is not an aberration--and if the horse is fit and is competitive class wise, it's a bet.

[Some_One]

In Michael Pizzola's book Handicapping Magic, he advocates using all turf races in the pp's in evaluating each runner.

Doing that has improved my hit rate and more important, prices.



In P&P 2012, that was also shown to be true on dirt races