I will try to beat him again...

[DeltaLover]

Chrome justified his backers winning the Derby with a dominant performance.

At this moment he is the best horse of his age and a potential super star! He is closer to a TC triumph than any of the recent KD winners and the odds against should be less than 5-1 at this point.

Personally, I belong in the 'NY' skeptics who thought that the horse was a false favorite. This opinion cost me a few hundred and certainly this is not the first time something like this is happening ( I think I am used to it LOL)..

Setting aside the great performance he delivered, opening up in the middle of the stretch like a great horse and winning with authority (and no, I do not agree with Andy Beyer and his comments about this been an illusion, but this is another story), I also like his connections and how sporty they seem to be! I have heard they turned down a six million offer to sell their colt, sending the right message to those thinking about horse racing as pure business.

I also think, the humble origins both CC and his Derby runner up (another CC) can only help horse racing, asserting the view that a great thoroughbred is not necessarily correlated with deep pockets and huge auction prices.

Betting-wise though I will have to say that for the Preakness, I will try again to beat him besides the fact that for the moment he is the best of his generation!

[horses4courses]

Chrome justified his backers winning the Derby with a dominant performance.

At this moment he is the best horse of his age and a potential super star! He is closer to a TC triumph than any of the recent KD winners and the odds against should be less than 5-1 at this point.

Personally, I belong in the 'NY' skeptics who thought that the horse was a false favorite. This opinion cost me a few hundred and certainly this is not the first time something like this is happening ( I think I am used to it LOL)..

Setting aside the great performance he delivered, opening up in the middle of the stretch like a great horse and winning with authority (and no, I do not agree with Andy Beyer and his comments about this been an illusion, but this is another story), I also like his connections and how sporty they seem to be! I have heard they turned down a six million offer to sell their colt, sending the right message to those thinking about horse racing as pure business.

I also think, the humble origins both CC and his Derby runner up (another CC) can only help horse racing, asserting the view that a great thoroughbred is not necessarily correlated with deep pockets and huge auction prices.

Betting-wise though I will have to say that for the Preakness, I will try again to beat him besides the fact that for the moment he is the best of his generation!

Be sure and put plenty into the trifecta pool, okay?
If CC appears well in himself going to post, I'll be keying him on top.
I will also key on one, or maybe two, horses for place and show.
Three, or four, horses at a price will fill the tickets.
Looking for anything between 2-1 to 4-1 on my wager.
Easy money..... :lol:

I believe that Pimlico is made to order for CC.
It's Belmont that concerns me.

[PaceAdvantage]

Be sure and put plenty into the trifecta pool, okay?What exactly was the point of writing something like this to Delta?

He started a thread devoid of personal bullshit and your first line to him is basically an insult.

Enough already.

[horses4courses]

What exactly was the point of writing something like this to Delta?

He started a thread devoid of personal bullshit and your first line to him is basically an insult.

Enough already.

He says he's going against him.
No reason why. Just is.

It wasn't meant as an insult, but seeing how some people are so touchy on the subject right now,
anything can be construed as such.

A difference of opinion, along with an attempt at humor, is now seen as an insult.
He's going to bet what he's going to bet. Same goes for me.

Lighten up, already.

[PaceAdvantage]

"Be sure and put plenty into the trifecta pool, okay?"

As in, "you're a dumbass and I hope you bet a lot of money so I can take it with my superior handicapping acumen."

That's what "I'm sure glad you're in the pools" means and all of its derivatives. Don't try and pass it off as some sort of light-hearted attempt at humor.

And please don't tell me to lighten up. I'm light as a feather...and I'll continue running my website as I see fit. Thanks!

[Smarty Cide]

for 60 bucks you can bet the super single Chrome on top and box 5 horses under him

[horses4courses]

"Be sure and put plenty into the trifecta pool, okay?"

As in, "you're a dumbass and I hope you bet a lot of money so I can take it with my superior handicapping acumen."

That's what "I'm sure glad you're in the pools" means and all of its derivatives. Don't try and pass it off as some sort of light-hearted attempt at humor.

And please don't tell me to lighten up. I'm light as a feather...and I'll continue running my website as I see fit. Thanks!

My handicapping acumen is far from superior - to Delta's and many others who frequent this forum.
My early thoughts on the Preakness are based solely on this premise -
a healthy CC is currently the best 3yo colt in the nation.

His win odds at Pimlico, as they were at CD, are not attractive to bet.
So I may play a few tricks - that's all.

[Smarty Cide]

My early thoughts on the Preakness are based solely on this premise - a healthy CC is currently the best 3yo colt in the nation.

His win odds at Pimlico, as they were at CD, are not attractive to bet.
So I may play a few tricks - that's all.


i couldnt agree more, but man, how are you gonna bet this. Gonna have to single him in pick 3's and 4's... or hit the super. I dont think that the exacta, or tri will even pay...


what you thinking? to me betting the preakness on a favorite like this is more math then handicapping...

[lamboguy]

because i am anything but a superior handicapper, i am going to bet CALIFORNIA CHROME to show. Pimlico is a good rebate track for me, and i don't expect a negative pool. i will take the profits and invest in the rainbow 2 weeks later.

[horses4courses]

i couldnt agree more, but man, how are you gonna bet this. Gonna have to single him in pick 3's and 4's... or hit the super. I dont think that the exacta, or tri will even pay...


what you thinking? to me betting the preakness on a favorite like this is more math then handicapping...

For me, it's going to depend on at least a couple of things.

CC will have to appear happy going to post.
Also, I will have to have a key horse to finish on the board below him.

That key horse is hopefully not the second favorite, otherwise I'll probably pass.
Then, depending on field size, I will have 3 or 4 horses to fill the other trifecta slots - CC on top, key horse place/show with the others.
That will give me 6 or 8 combinations.

Not looking to get rich, just better than 2-1 to my money.

[depalma113]

It might be a six horse field in the Preakness. May not be worth betting at all.

[horses4courses]

It might be a six horse field in the Preakness. May not be worth betting at all.

You're right.
Sit back and watch time.

[Smarty Cide]

You're right.
Sit back and watch time.


or just single him and hit the pick 4

[goatchaser]

Just bet the Pik 3 that leads up to the race. Pik 4 could pay less than the Pik 3..lol

[mostpost]

What exactly was the point of writing something like this to Delta?

He started a thread devoid of personal bullshit and your first line to him is basically an insult.

Enough already.
Why don't we let DeltaLover himself decide if he is being insulted? As I write this his button is green which means he is online here and has probably read what horses4courses wrote. Personally, I didn't read horses4courses comments as demeaning to anyone.

[Smarty Cide]

me neither, i think a few people on here are a little overly sensitive right now

[PaceAdvantage]

It's unnecessary inflammatory rhetoric in a place where it absolutely does not belong based on what Delta wrote. Of course he can answer for himself. That doesn't mean I can't offer up an opinion.

Same goes for those who call others HATERS just because they feel a horse is a bad bet value-wise, which is all I ever said about CC.

[PaceAdvantage]

me neither, i think a few people on here are a little overly sensitive right nowYou got that right. Don't forget about pre-Derby, when anyone who said CC was a bad value bet was labeled a HATER...those folks were overly sensitive as well, wouldn't you agree?

[mostpost]

He says he's going against him.
No reason why. Just is.

It wasn't meant as an insult, but seeing how some people are so touchy on the subject right now,
anything can be construed as such.

A difference of opinion, along with an attempt at humor, is now seen as an insult.
He's going to bet what he's going to bet. Same goes for me.

Lighten up, already.
By no stretch of the imagination is what you said an insult. PA is being passive aggressive to throw you off your game.

[PaceAdvantage]

By no stretch of the imagination is what you said an insult. PA is being passive aggressive to throw you off your game.How is telling someone straight up to their face (or as close as you can come in this medium), that what they wrote was insulting...how exactly is that being passive aggressive?

:lol:

[DeltaLover]

One of the most common fallacies among horse bettor is the deterministic view of outcome of a race.

This approach is very common among chalk players who constantly are trying to discover betting value among the obvious picks of a race.

These people constantly overestimate their abilities thinking that they now more than the average player while indeed they are not any better than him.

I do not have much respect for people who are bragging about their abilities although I can certainly understand this behavior as the result of insecurity and other related physiological reasons.

I always try to keep personal conflicts and comments out of my postings and would like the others to do the same.

[thaskalos]

One of the most common fallacies among horse bettor is the deterministic view of outcome of a race.

This approach is very common among chalk players who constantly are trying to discover betting value among the obvious picks of a race.

These people constantly overestimate their abilities thinking that they now more than the average player while indeed they are not any better than him.

I do not have much respect for people who are bragging about their abilities although I can certainly understand this behavior as the result of insecurity and other related physiological reasons.

I always try to keep personal conflicts and comments out of my postings and would like the others to do the same.

I too believe that comments which instigate personal arguments should be kept out of our postings, but, given the argumentative nature of handicapping discussions, this is not always possible.

I would like to ask though, Delta:

If you thought that CC's Derby performance was as "dominant" as you say...and given the probable size of the field in the Preakness...how do you plan to beat California Chrome in Baltimore?

Wouldn't it make more sense to hope for a similar CC performance in the Preakness...and then try to take your chances at beating him in the Belmont? Shouldn't there be some vulnerability shown by the favorite...before an attempt is made to beat him?

A dominant CC + the short field + the shortening distance adds up to 3/5 odds on my betting line for the Preakness...and it leaves practically no room for a value play of any sort.

[PaceAdvantage]

Before deciding on whether he is beatable or not, we should first see who else is going to be in the race.

I may very well decide CC is the best horse in the race. I won't know until I see who else is entered.

[Smarty Cide]

You got that right. Don't forget about pre-Derby, when anyone who said CC was a bad value bet was labeled a HATER...those folks were overly sensitive as well, wouldn't you agree?

no actually i would disagree, people where over the top, kinda even looking down on the people betting california chrome. like they knew better...

apparently they didnt, just a bunch of over thinkers... it was simple to see what was going to happen... Just Saying :cool:

[PaceAdvantage]

no actually i would disagree, people where over the top, kinda even looking down on the people betting california chrome. like they knew better...

apparently they didnt, just a bunch of over thinkers... it was simple to see what was going to happen... Just Saying :cool:Well then, we agree to disagree.

[TheGarMan]

Guys,

I remember betting the Preakness a few years back, and having maybe a dozen or so exotic bets, with each one keying the previously dominate derby winner in the first position.

I had various Tri's and Supers, placed four and five horses deep.

I was poor back then, so my total investment on the whole race was probably under a couple hundred bucks...

Then Barbaro took a bad step in the lane, and it was all over. :(

Nearly every ticket I had went up in smoke.

I would NEVER wish a bad step on CC or any other horse.

My only point is be careful, as anything can happen & there is no such thing as a "guarantee" in this game.

Gar

[luvalab]

It is always funny to me that people get so upset or very strongly criticize others selections when the very nature of making money thru parimutuel wagering is based on disagreement. Personally, I like it when people disagree with me as it is a chance to make some money in a tough game that I love. Not saying this based on anything that was said about selections in this thread, but just a general observation thru the years.

As for the Preakness, field size will dictate a lot for me along with who enters. I'll never criticize anyone for taking a stand against a favorite, but I think CC will finish in the Trifecta for sure (assuming no major issues) and there are some strong stats that point to him as the likely winner (not to mention basic handicapping). As always, the top 3 betting choices will be heavily boxed, as well as the top 2 betting choices with the 4th choice. My goal will be to see if I can get "any two" of the 2nd, 3rd or 4th betting choices out of the Trifecta, so we'll need a decent field size to make this happen. Depending on who enters, I'd like to see at least 9 or 10 horses in the field.

In 2008, Big Brown won at odds of 1/5. There were 12 horses that ran in the Preakness that year. Because the 2nd and 3rd betting choices ran 6th and 11th, the $2 Trifecta paid $336.80 and a $1 Superfecta paid $1192.30. Smaller than you would like, but not bad for a 1/5 winning. Certainly, had Gayego (2nd betting choice) finished in the exotics as well it would have paid a lot less.

If I don't think it is possible to get two of these guys out of the Trifecta, then I will create a smaller combination ticket and punch it several times like I did in 2012. Just some preliminary thoughts.

[burnsy]

Guys,




My only point is be careful, as anything can happen & there is no such thing as a "guarantee" in this game.

Gar

Truer words can not be spoken. If you don't understand this....well.... I don't want to get in trouble for a "being in the pool comment ;) ". I'm never touchy when a 7 dollar derby horse beats me. I get pissed when the 10-1 shot beats me like Moonshine Mullin did to Golden Ticket at 5-1 on Oaks day because these are the tickets I need to cash. I'm betting races through out the year. I can't survive on chalk. After seeing the derby, of course, I won't leave this horse out. But I know that quote and its wisdom to a horse player. I will have at least one other on my pic tickets and double. These kind of plays have led to my best scores. Why get touchy when people hit a single? Burnsy looks for home runs. I'll be happy if I cash on him now, I'll be even happier if I have to sign for cashing on someone else....and believe me I've seen this song and dance before and have taken advantage. That quote should be the "first commandment" in this gig. These are the situations I love because once one horse gets overbet, anything can still happen.

[DeltaLover]

I too believe that comments which instigate personal arguments should be kept out of our postings, but, given the argumentative nature of handicapping discussions, this is not always possible.

I would like to ask though, Delta:

If you thought that CC's Derby performance was as "dominant" as you say...and given the probable size of the field in the Preakness...how do you plan to beat California Chrome in Baltimore?

Wouldn't it make more sense to hope for a similar CC performance in the Preakness...and then try to take your chances at beating him in the Belmont? Shouldn't there be some vulnerability shown by the favorite...before an attempt is made to beat him?

A dominant CC + the short field + the shortening distance adds up to 3/5 odds on my betting line for the Preakness...and it leaves practically no room for a value play of any sort.
The cornerstones of my handicapping philosophy are:

- The purpose of my handicapping is not to reveal the most frequent winner (something that can rephrases as the best horse of the race) but to identify the systematic crowd's mistakes both in overestimating the chances of the favorite and symmetrically, underestimating the longer shots of the race

- Axiomatically, I accept that any horse can loose and any other can win.

- Axiomatically, I accept that betting the favorite is never the best action. It should either be a pass or a bet into a higher odds animal.

Based on these principles, it becomes obvious that a horse looking so superior to his rivals, can either be a pass if it is found in relative high odds (in the case of CC this could had been something around 7-5) or if it can be found in very low odds there is always the possibility to be a good bet against. I know that what I say here, might create a lot of controversy but before you start thinking that Delta is loosing it, try to think a bit deeper about what I am saying here...

A horse as obvious as CC appears to be, is natural to create loads of bets that will suppress his odds to the point of creating positive expected value to some of his rivals who although they will be capable of beating him relatively few times, we might manage to come ahead by an occasional big score.

For a horse like CC going to Preakness, what counts are only his negative angles while you should pay absolutely no attention to any related positives.

In contrary, for his rivals you should consider only their strong sides, trying to magnifying them, selecting the most under looked of them, always in conjunction with their possible improvement of course.

My betting strategy for the Preakness is pretty straight forward and I have applied it numerous times in the past. The most important horse will not be CC of course, but the immediately next obvious horses. If I decide that they are vulnerable by the longer shots of the race I will intensify my handicapping trying to isolate which one is the most possible horse to improve showing a life time best among the starters that the vast majority of the players will toss at first glance! Note that I write which one and not which ones, because if I am betting the race, I will only bet a single horse as my base.

Of course I know that I am going to loose a little less than then half of my bets when CC will be winning (this is approximate his winning probability).. I do not really care about these times though... What I will be trying to do, is to win with a real long shot just a few of the times CC he will be loosing and this is why I care about the second choices in this particular situation. I do not like to beat CC and still end up with a 3-1 shot, this is not what I am shooting for as I want to make at least 7-1 to my total investment having some open windows for a really big score in the range of 15 or more times my total..

If the presence of CC will be proven so intimidating for his rivals to the extend of converting the race to a walkover, ending up with a very small and weak field, chances are that I will not bet any serious money in the race. Ideally in this situation I would like to completely pass the race, although for addiction reasons, I will probably donate a few bucks to the pool and the 'expert' handicappers who will try to capitalize on their odds-on cinch! In this case I will know for sure, that I am going to take my money back very soon , with a few hundred points of interest as a bonus!

[goatchaser]

I don't think I could ever cap a race thinking well...If the #1 horse breaks down.....I got it. I think I would loose many many races before that ever happened.

[depalma113]

One of the most common fallacies among horse bettor is the deterministic view of outcome of a race.

This approach is very common among chalk players who constantly are trying to discover betting value among the obvious picks of a race.

These people constantly overestimate their abilities thinking that they now more than the average player while indeed they are not any better than him.

I do not have much respect for people who are bragging about their abilities although I can certainly understand this behavior as the result of insecurity and other related physiological reasons.

I always try to keep personal conflicts and comments out of my postings and would like the others to do the same.


So you insult a bunch of people with this post, but you always "try to keep personal conflicts and comments" out of your posts? I guess by not naming names, you get a pass?

[BettinBilly]

Chrome justified his backers winning the Derby with a dominant performance.....
That he did.

At this moment he is the best horse of his age and a potential super star!....
I hope so.

Personally, I belong in the 'NY' skeptics who thought that the horse was a false favorite. This opinion cost me a few hundred and certainly this is not the first time something like this is happening ( I think I am used to it LOL)...
Join the club. If it weren't for that 4/1 guarantee from TVG, I would not have bet him straight up. My money was on Wicked for the win and for many exotics. Other than my $25 (max bet) 4/1 on Chrome, I had one Box Trifecta with Chrome that I hit. All the rest ended up on the floor. Well, that's why they call it gambling. It certainly could have been worse, and, I'm used to it as well. ;)


Betting-wise though, I will have to say that for the Preakness, I will try again to beat him besides the fact that for the moment he is the best of his generation!
I may as well. Too early for me to make this determination.

[BlueChip@DRF]

California Chrome over Kid Cruz straight heavy exacta. I hope California Chrome wins The Preakness, it would make The Belmont so much more interesting.

[Smarty Cide]

California Chrome over Kid Cruz straight heavy exacta. I hope California Chrome wins The Preakness, it would make The Belmont so much more interesting.


ICE COLD

[Saratoga_Mike]

ICE COLD

Shouldn't you be somewhat more measured in your enthusiasm? Remember Orb?

[senortout]

look up 'some-timey' in the dictionary.

Orb's picture is listed there!

[luisbe]

I think an interesting way to bet this race is using CC in exactas, tris and supers
but not on top then, as an insurance, betting all pick 3s that include the Preakness in the sequence isolating CC to win the Preakness.

[PaceAdvantage]

ICE COLDWhat race is that in your signature? I just noticed the winner is ahead way more than 1.75 lengths.... :lol:

[PhantomOnTour]

What race is that in your signature? I just noticed the winner is ahead way more than 1.75 lengths.... :lol:
Looks like the 1/8 pole or the 1/16 pole to me

[PaceAdvantage]

Looks like the 1/8 pole or the 1/16 pole to meYeah...just wondering why he didn't use the actual finish...I mean, if he's that good, why go through the trouble of manufacturing something greater than it was... :lol:

[Smarty Cide]

Yeah...just wondering why he didn't use the actual finish...I mean, if he's that good, why go through the trouble of manufacturing something greater than it was... :lol:

actually didnt pay that much attention to it pulled the picture off espn.com and took me less then 5 mins to make that...


anyway I think the Preakness may be harder then the Derby for him to win. Social Inclusion is a good damn horse and there are a bunch of fresh horses entering this one. I like a CC, SI, KC tri box.. although every other bet i make I will be singling CC on top. my triple crown season was already made in the Derby (thanks to all you ignoramuses in denial of the obvious) and most of that money is staying in my pocket so im playing with house money anyway. I just want to see the triple crown more than anything born in 79 has not happened in my lifetime. enough is enough already

[PaceAdvantage]

I haven't missed going live to the Belmont Stakes in 26 years. You don't think i would like to see a Triple Crown too? :lol:

I think CC will be going for the crown in June. But then again, the way I've been picking horses lately, I've become the ultimate kiss of death.... :lol: :lol:


Oh, and PS....Ignoramus? Really dude?

[Smarty Cide]

Oh, and PS....Ignoramus? Really dude?


yeah that was fn great, right... i laughed to myself for a good 5 mins after writing that


yeah thanks for the kiss of death can you just pick social inclusion.... hes fresh and primed for a big race

[lamboguy]

before post position draw i have true odds on CALIFORNIA CHROME at 4/5. more than likely the horse will get bet down further unless they find another guy from The Ilse of Mann to come in at the last minute with $1million bet on another horse in the race.

the thing i like about this horse is that he has more races than anyone else in this group this year. to me that means that he probably isn't loaded up with race prep drugs and that he hasn't trained on anti-inflamatory medication, and likely not to have clen in his system either.

if this horse gets the Preakness win and doesn't have an injury, sickness or a crazy work, he is likely to run just as well in the Belmont.

[DeltaLover]

I haven't missed going live to the Belmont Stakes in 26 years.

After nearly 20 consecutive live Belmont Stakes attendances, my last was Ruler on Ice's. The new OTB room at Aqueduct is very nice to allow me go to Long Island, at least not to watch horses like CC and the like (especially if they are chasing the crown!)

[BlueChip@DRF]

I haven't missed going live to the Belmont Stakes in 26 years. You don't think i would like to see a Triple Crown too? :lol:

I think CC will be going for the crown in June. But then again, the way I've been picking horses lately, I've become the ultimate kiss of death.... :lol: :lol:


Oh, and PS....Ignoramus? Really dude?

I've gone to the last TC Belmont in 1978. I was seated right across from the 1/8th pole. The crowd was deafening. I'm glad I saw that one. It was like a match race when they entered the far turn.

I started going to The Belmont Stakes again in 2001 and then only the years when the Crown was on the line.

[PaceAdvantage]

yeah that was fn great, right... i laughed to myself for a good 5 mins after writing that


yeah thanks for the kiss of death can you just pick social inclusion.... hes fresh and primed for a big raceYou know what would be even more fn great?