Did California Chrome bounce?

[TheEdge07]

And win anyway?

And if he did is it a sign of his form tailing off?

Before the onslaught im not a Chrome hater just asking..

[goatchaser]

Had the same spurt turning for home ..opened up 4 or 5 like he did in other races. Victor kept to the task as It was the Derby. Let up on him inside the 1/16 pole so he could pose for the snap shot. Watched him right after the finish as his ears were still pricked. I don't think so.

[Fingal]

One of the first books I ever read on horse racing had a great tagline. It's been close to 35 years, & that book is long gone, but I've never forgotten it.

"Horses are not motorcycles. They're made made of muscles, bones, tendons....and heart."

Much has been made of the figure of 97 he earned in the Derby. But put it in context- Did he really regress ? Or did he just do what he had to ?

I look several races back to the Cal Cup Derby against state bred competition, & in that race his final fig also "regressed." But what figure(s) did he earn in open graded competition in the following races ?

[PaceAdvantage]

Much has been made of the figure of 97 he earned in the Derby. But put it in context- Did he really regress ? Or did he just do what he had to ?If he only did what he had to, he wouldn't have opened up by 5 and won by almost two...

That seems to be not very efficient or "only what he had to do."

[goatchaser]

It seems to be his signature move with this horse Pace. For whatever reason...All or most of his wins have been in the same Manner. The 17 had a great kick and that's with being wide from where I picked him up on the far turn . But I watched the gallop out and the 17 didn't go by him in the run out after the race. I think there's still something left in the tank.

[dasch]

Not 70% not 90% not even 99%

100% NO he did NOT bounce

[Valuist]

I don't think he bounced. If the race was 9 furlongs instead of 10, maybe he runs the same fig as he did last time. Maybe he wasn't suited for 1 1/4 miles but he was so much better, he overcame his distance limitations.

[TheEdge07]

I don't think he bounced. If the race was 9 furlongs instead of 10, maybe he runs the same fig as he did last time. Maybe he wasn't suited for 1 1/4 miles but he was so much better, he overcame his distance limitations.

Agree.

[goatchaser]

I will say this..The owner was a little overboard declaring that Chrome was going in all 3 Trple Crown Races before knowing how he came out of the race. I hope Sheman doesn't get caught up all the Hoopla and does what's best for the Horse.

[goatchaser]

Just found this article in USA. Seemed to come out of the race well

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/horseracing/2014/05/04/kentucky-derby-california-chrome-art-sherman/8689597/

[cosmicway]

He did not accelerate in the last stages and the second horse was a sort of a dim threat. In the other two legs more stayer qualities are needed plus he has to remain fit.

[chadk66]

he got hit like twice just to keep his mind off the grandstand. could have won by many more. he did it very easily. the overall time doesn't mean anything to me because they backed the pace up so much early on that it would have been tough to finish in a blazing time. and when there are no challengers down the lane what's the sense. faster time wouldn't have increased the purse any.

[Stillriledup]

Keep in mind that a "bounce" is essentially a 'sheet' theory that just says the horse ran slower numerically than his previous race, it has nothing to do with how good the horse looked or even if he appeared to regress visually. If his number is slower, he bounced.

[cosmicway]

Speaking of speed figures, see Eimy Dorit, the unbeaten in Greece English mare for 21 sorties defeating Giving Orders by handsome margin:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8K1a_crHjSQ

Eimy Dorit's speed figures looked pitiful compared to those of Giving Orders but there was the strong suspicion she did not have to produce herself in older races, whereas her opponent had to do so against strong companies.
In the end she makes a demolition job.

[chadk66]

obviously I'm not up to speed on all this handicapping jargon ;)

[goatchaser]

Keep in mind that a "bounce" is essentially a 'sheet' theory that just says the horse ran slower numerically than his previous race, it has nothing to do with how good the horse looked or even if he appeared to regress visually. If his number is slower, he bounced.
When you look for a BOUNCE Horse.....Your looking for him to throw in a Clunker and beat him. Not have him win the race.

[burnsy]

He did not accelerate in the last stages and the second horse was a sort of a dim threat. In the other two legs more stayer qualities are needed plus he has to remain fit.

I agree. He ran like he had to. But he will need more than that to pull it off. I suspect someone will send their horse(s) and push the pace. If he makes it to the Belmont its inevitable. Several times horses have been in for the Triple Crown and 3 or so without much of a chance go at them and it gets the best of them. That last 1/16 on the sand is a killer. That's why its been so long. the low number means he better have saved something...that's why its a tough, 5 weeks, 3 races. The trainer already knows its tough to come back in two weeks and has said that much. Forget what the owners said, give those guys a break. They had just hit the "dream" of a lifetime. What would you say?

[goatchaser]

I agree. He ran like he had to. But he will need more than that to pull it off. I suspect someone will send their horse(s) and push the pace. If he makes it to the Belmont its inevitable. Several times horses have been in for the Triple Crown and 3 or so without much of a chance go at them and it gets the best of them. That last 1/16 on the sand is a killer. That's why its been so long. the low number means he better have saved something...that's why its a tough, 5 weeks, 3 races. The trainer already knows its tough to come back in two weeks and has said that much. Forget what the owners said, give those guys a break. They had just hit the "dream" of a lifetime. What would you say?
My first thought would have been for the horse and said if he comes out of this race in good shape....and the trainer gives the ok then we will run. If not...Were headed back to California. You don't ruin a horse chase your dream. And I would have no problem if they did.

[Stillriledup]

When you look for a BOUNCE Horse.....Your looking for him to throw in a Clunker and beat him. Not have him win the race.

I get that part of it, bettors are not thinking that a horse can bounce and still win, they are using the bounce term to bet against, but technically, a horse can still bounce and win.

[goatchaser]

Must be a very good horse to do that

[cosmicway]

Looked like a miler to me, with an edge over his rivals.

[Track Phantom]

I don't believe in the "bounce" theory...at all. I've always felt it is a way horse players bridge the gap between good and bad races. I believe there is often more likely reasoning for a bad performance.

Having said that, California Chrome ran slower than normal because he was beating a inferior and suspect field. If you had all the defectors in the race, it could have been one of the great Derby fields. What was left was below par and California Chrome had the race put away with a furlong to go.

Had he needed 10 more Beyer points, he'd have found them.

[iceknight]

And win anyway?

And if he did is it a sign of his form tailing off?

Before the onslaught im not a Chrome hater just asking.. Yes. Actually Commanding Curve won the derby but due to some optical illusion Chrome was decided to be first at the wire.. :bang:


Oh this is a beauty: "Looked like a miler to me, with an edge over his rivals."

[iceknight]

I don't believe in the "bounce" theory...at all. I've always felt it is a way horse players bridge the gap between good and bad races. I believe there is often more likely reasoning for a bad performance.

Having said that, California Chrome ran slower than normal because he was beating a inferior and suspect field. If you had all the defectors in the race, it could have been one of the great Derby fields. What was left was below par and California Chrome had the race put away with a furlong to go.

Had he needed 10 more Beyer points, he'd have found them. You mean the unsound horses that actually could not make it to the starting gate? The only time such excuses are valid is when you have genuinely classy horses but ones that happen to be injury prone, e.g. a ghostzapper type. When the Uncle Mo types do not show up, that does not make the competition inferior. "great" is still a little too much to talk about at this time. Unless you have a genuine stretch duel or a genuine early pace duel and some horses surviving to still stay in the victory lane, it cannot be called a great derby field. A strong field perhaps, but words like great need to be used wisely.

[taxicab]

And win anyway?

And if he did is it a sign of his form tailing off?

Before the onslaught im not a Chrome hater just asking..

Yeah.....
Horses always open up 5 lengths at the 1/8th pole and gallop home wrapped while winning the Kentucky Derby.......that's a bounce alright. :D

[letswastemoney]

I don't care if he bounced or not, but he's probably better than all the Derby horses so it doesn't matter.

Maybe boxing the newcomers would be a good idea in the Preakness.

[Track Phantom]

You mean the unsound horses that actually could not make it to the starting gate? The only time such excuses are valid is when you have genuinely classy horses but ones that happen to be injury prone, e.g. a ghostzapper type. When the Uncle Mo types do not show up, that does not make the competition inferior. "great" is still a little too much to talk about at this time. Unless you have a genuine stretch duel or a genuine early pace duel and some horses surviving to still stay in the victory lane, it cannot be called a great derby field. A strong field perhaps, but words like great need to be used wisely.

Not sure the need to correct me here...but...ok.

I believe a healthy Shared Belief, Constituion, Honor Code, Cairo Prince, Hoppertunity, Social Inclusion, Bayern, New Years Day...to name a few....would have made the race quite compelling. I was underwhelmed with most of the field. They might turn out to be good down the road but nothing special now.

[rastajenk]

Had he needed 10 more Beyer points, he'd have found them.
That's sounds like crazy talk to me.

[TheEdge07]

Yeah.....
Horses always open up 5 lengths at the 1/8th pole and gallop home wrapped while winning the Kentucky Derby.......that's a bounce alright. :D

Bounce theory has nothing to do with results...Its a number the fact remains no derby has been run slower since 1974.

CC fans will defend it..

[goatchaser]

When you win by a nose...or 10 lengths....Do you not get the same Payout?

[Track Phantom]

That's sounds like crazy talk to me.

Not sure why. He opened up easily in the lane, geared down dramatically in the final furlong and was never challenged at any point. I assume you think he ran as fast as possible in all that? I don't.

[iceknight]

Not sure the need to correct me here...but...ok.

I believe a healthy Shared Belief, Constituion, Honor Code, Cairo Prince, Hoppertunity, Social Inclusion, Bayern, New Years Day...to name a few....would have made the race quite compelling. I was underwhelmed with most of the field. They might turn out to be good down the road but nothing special now. Well I was just trying to offer a differing opinion on how I define great races. All these other horses could not survive the challenge of 1 mile and 1/8th races, then to expect them to have posed a threat in a longer race & crowded field? I had some hopes on Honor code earlier on, but then I realized that all of these were hyped up horses with not a strong bone in their body to handle more than 1 & 1/8th..
Heat. Kitchen. Couldn't Handle. Not great even if they had eked it out to the Derby gates.

[goatchaser]

Their 3 year olds and early in their career. I would never say their a weak boned creature. Some are still growing and some not all we be talented 4 yo's.

[dannyhill]

Their 3 year olds and early in their career. I would never say their a weak boned creature. Some are still growing and some not all we be talented 4 yo's.
It's not that they keep growing but they fill out and mature that is important.
I believe it is called growth plates and they continue until 5 or 6 years old.

[iceknight]

Guess, both of you have valid points. So maybe it is training regimens and the whole cycle leading up to the tc races takes a toll on some, and it does not on others.

[cosmicway]

The bounce theory is true only no one seems to have evaluated properly.

The trainer always knows best so what to you is a likely bouncer, judging by the number of recent sorties, may not be one such. The snug is they never tell us. I heard trainers pointing us to some good outsiders in races but I never heard one saying "my horse will run but he is about to bounce".

In the case of California I don't think he had it wrapped up. Commanding curve was finishing like a bomb never mind the outcome. But re. triple crown the more serious question -as always- is can he stay in form ?

[taxicab]

Bounce theory has nothing to do with results...Its a number the fact remains no derby has been run slower since 1974.

CC fans will defend it..

I'm well aware of what a "bounce" is.
And CC didn't bounce in any way,shape, or form.
A horse can't bounce if no other horse can get near him at the wire.
And don't say Commanding Curve,Espinoza had shutdown Chrome before the wire after he blew the race open.
He just schooled the best 3yo's in the country......easily.
Some bounce.
As far as the final time, two turn races have played extremely slow at the current CD meet.
There is such a thing as track variant (and adjusted times) you might want to look into.
And didn't Sunday Silence win his Derby in 2:05 in 1989 ?
That would be slower than CC's final time.

[Stillriledup]

I'm well aware of what a "bounce" is.
And CC didn't bounce in any way,shape, or form.
A horse can't bounce if no other horse can get near him at the wire.
And don't say Commanding Curve,Espinoza had shutdown Chrome before the wire after he blew the race open.
He just schooled the best 3yo's in the country......easily.
Some bounce.
As far as the final time, two turn races have played extremely slow at the current CD meet.
There is such a thing as track variant (and adjusted times) you might want to look into.
And didn't Sunday Silence win his Derby in 2:05 in 1989 ?
That would be slower than CC's final time.

That has nothing to do with a bounce, how the horse races. All the bounce means is if the horse 'regressed' numerically on the sheets or TG, a horse can win by 100 lengths, but if his number is slower than his previous number, he bounced.

[rastajenk]

Not sure why. He opened up easily in the lane, geared down dramatically in the final furlong and was never challenged at any point. I assume you think he ran as fast as possible in all that? I don't.I don't think anything can just dial up 10 extra Beyer points, on demand, at that level of competition. Ever. No matter what it looks like visually.

[TheEdge07]

I'm well aware of what a "bounce" is.
And CC didn't bounce in any way,shape, or form.
A horse can't bounce if no other horse can get near him at the wire.
And don't say Commanding Curve,Espinoza had shutdown Chrome before the wire after he blew the race open.
He just schooled the best 3yo's in the country......easily.
Some bounce.
As far as the final time, two turn races have played extremely slow at the current CD meet.
There is such a thing as track variant (and adjusted times) you might want to look into.
And didn't Sunday Silence win his Derby in 2:05 in 1989 ?
That would be slower than CC's final time.

2:05 in the deep muddy track did you forget Shug using the OFF TRACK as a excuse for the lost.

[taxicab]

That has nothing to do with a bounce, how the horse races. All the bounce means is if the horse 'regressed' numerically on the sheets or TG, a horse can win by 100 lengths, but if his number is slower than his previous number, he bounced.

How the horse races has everything to do with a bounce.
A Bounce is when a horse runs a big race and then follows it up with a bad race.
The logic being the "big race" took something out of the horse leading to his "bad race".
My point is CC didn't regress in the Derby.
His race before the Derby was the Santa Anita Derby,he beat that field with complete ease.
He came back and beat a faster/stronger field in the Kentucky Derby with complete ease.
An easy win in the Kentucky Derby can never be considered a bounce.
It's always a class jump,thus making it a harder race to win.
And if you want to play the "final time" card, pay attention closely to what I'm going to say here....Churchill Downs two turn races are playing much slower than their one turn races this meet, that's why ALL of the two turn races at Churchill have slow times.
I don't make "numbers" for races,I leave that to the people that know how to do it properly.
But I do know how to "qualify" a horse and a race.
And in my book California Chrome's Kentucky Derby was a better race than his Santa Anita Derby........hence no bounce.

BTW, didn't CC's KDY get his best number from the Thorograph sheets?
How is that a regression ?

[taxicab]

2:05 in the deep muddy track did you forget Shug using the OFF TRACK as a excuse for the lost.

First of all you said "the fact remains no Derby has been run slower since 1974".
That's not a fact, that statement is false.
The Derby was run slower in 1989.
Second of all,track variant and wind mattered in this years Derby.
That's why you are seeing adjusted times showing up from the number makers.
And I'll tell you this, two turn dirt races at Churchill are playing over 5 lengths slower than usual this meet.......The numbers back that up.
Go compare the times, it's all there in black and white.

[highnote]

Second of all, ....... wind mattered in this years Derby.

What mattered more the headwind or tailwind? If a headwind slowed them down then would a tailwind have speeded them up?

Steven Roman gave CC a -61 figure which equates to a 102 Beyer. CJ says the 97 Beyer can be made to be 103 with a wind adjustment.

Maybe the backstretch was deep and the horses had to plow through it. Maybe this slowed them down more than the wind?

Or maybe the race shape was Slow-Slow. If pace was too slow maybe there wasn't enough distance remaining for the horses to make up time in the final fractions?

We should know more after the Preakness.

[cosmicway]

The parameter that counts is:

speed 10th furlong / speed 9th furlong

if you can find it and compare with known standards.

[Cratos]

What mattered more the headwind or tailwind? If a headwind slowed them down then would a tailwind have speeded them up?

Steven Roman gave CC a -61 figure which equates to a 102 Beyer. CJ says the 97 Beyer can be made to be 103 with a wind adjustment.

Maybe the backstretch was deep and the horses had to plow through it. Maybe this slowed them down more than the wind?

Or maybe the race shape was Slow-Slow. If pace was too slow maybe there wasn't enough distance remaining for the horses to make up time in the final fractions?

We should know more after the Preakness.

I don't care about the numbers at this point, but what I care about is a geometric sketch laid out geographically that shows the wind direction relative to the horses movement in the Derby. Until then the numbers doesn't matter.

I

[highnote]

I don't care about the numbers at this point, but what I care about is a geometric sketch laid out geographically that shows the wind direction relative to the horses movement in the Derby. Until then the numbers doesn't matter.

I


Even if you had a geometric sketch the velocity of the wind is not necessarily constant. It probably fluctuates, gusts and has turbulence.

The wind at a local airport may not the same at the racetrack.

Wind speed can be estimated using the Beaufort Scale. Wind direction can be estimated by the movement of a flag or flow of smoke.

There will still be variables that can cause errors. For example, you have to eliminate local eddies produced by surrounding conditions, (e.g. a small building, a fence or perhaps a tractor).

It would be nice to have anemometers placed every furlong or at every timing beam taking measurements, but even then a horse in the middle of a pack may benefit from drafting even if there is a head wind.

[dansan]

Yeah bounced his way to the winners circle LOL

[Cratos]

Even if you had a geometric sketch the velocity of the wind is not necessarily constant. It probably fluctuates, gusts and has turbulence.

The wind at a local airport may not the same at the racetrack.

Wind speed can be estimated using the Beaufort Scale. Wind direction can be estimated by the movement of a flag or flow of smoke.

There will still be variables that can cause errors. For example, you have to eliminate local eddies produced by surrounding conditions, (e.g. a small building, a fence or perhaps a tractor).

It would be nice to have anemometers placed every furlong or at every timing beam taking measurements, but even then a horse in the middle of a pack may benefit from drafting even if there is a head wind.

You are correct with your comments, but I was alluding to surface winds at the racetrack, not the airport and wind direction is the fundamental variable to consider along with velocity; this is not my first "rodeo", I have made this calculation a few times.

[highnote]

You are correct with your comments, but I was alluding to surface winds at the racetrack, not the airport and wind direction is the fundamental variable to consider along with velocity; this is not my first "rodeo", I have made this calculation a few times.


How do you measure wind direction at the surface? I noticed the flags blowing at CD, but it looked like it was pretty high in the air.

The wind on the backstretch could be different from the homestretch or turns because of the grandstands, infield structures, fences, moving horses, etc.

Seems like there would be a lot of turbulence.

I'm not saying it can't be done, but it seems like the data be noisy? But even with the noise maybe there is enough meaningful data that is useful?

[breezing]

well, they do use wind measurements in track and field but only for certain events (sprints 100 - 200m) and then they average the wind for each event for a certain period of time. the gauges "shall be positioned 1.22m high and not more than 2.00m away from the
track or runway. For Track Events, they shall be placed besides the straight, 50m from the finish line, adjacent to lane 1."

i was thinking that having the data would be interesting but since the races are longer than 200m, would the data even be meaningful? if you did have gauges around the track wouldn't the calculations get rather complicated, accounting for headwinds, tailwinds, and crosswinds? ultimately, what would the data tell you?

while i occasionally do look at the final time, to be truthful, as long as my selection finishes first i don't give time that much thought. i also don't think CC bounced, just took a breather :)

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Don't know for sure if CC bounced, since his stalking running style and slow fractions would of course result in a lower speed figure.

But what I do know for sure is this crop, once again, is not very good. I fully expected several other horses to move forward and run decent races in the Derby, and that didn't happen.

I'm a little surprised that CC won the Derby, and won so easily. But I'll stand by my earlier comments that I'll be SHOCKED if he wins the Triple Crown. History, and now a slow Derby speed figure, are not on his side....

[MargieRose]

Hi folks...Am a new member to this forum but have been reading the contributions here for quite a while. Overall, I'm impressed...lots of interesting and knowledgeable people here!

I've asked the following question on other forums but have yet to receive an answer. Maybe someone here can help out:

In the three years that I've been reading about the Kentucky Derby in some of the horse racing forums, there are always people who say: "he won against a weak crop." Well, what in Heaven's name would be considered a "strong crop?"....twenty Secretariats? Is there a year in the history of the Kentucky Derby that the majority, if not all, of the three-year-old contenders in that Derby were considered to be a "strong crop" on the day of the Derby, not in retrospect?

Re. CA Chrome: he may just be the type of horse who will run only as fast as he has to to win...Maybe he was taught that, or maybe it just comes naturally. I don't think he was out to put on spectacular show for anyone, just yet...just my opinion.

[Cratos]

How do you measure wind direction at the surface? I noticed the flags blowing at CD, but it looked like it was pretty high in the air.

The wind on the backstretch could be different from the homestretch or turns because of the grandstands, infield structures, fences, moving horses, etc.

Seems like there would be a lot of turbulence.

I'm not saying it can't be done, but it seems like the data be noisy? But even with the noise maybe there is enough meaningful data that is useful?
Measuring wind velocity at the ground surface level and determining its direction is very difficult and complex for some of the reasons stated by you; and that is why the standard measurement height is 10 meters above the ground surface. Also it should be noted that the average horse height is about 2.5 meters above the ground surface.

But what is missing from this discussion is humidity and its affect on air resistance. Another
issue is "draft" given how closely the horses were running together.

This again why I say the wind was miniscule in affecting California Chrome performance and the people who are stating otherwise should do a full wind analysis based on the Derby history. All the of the Derby times and weather data is available for such analysis.

In conclusion, California Chrome is either a "slow" horse going the 1-1/4 mile route or his performance was an anomaly.

[taxicab]

Hi folks...Am a new member to this forum but have been reading the contributions here for quite a while. Overall, I'm impressed...lots of interesting and knowledgeable people here!

I've asked the following question on other forums but have yet to receive an answer. Maybe someone here can help out:

In the three years that I've been reading about the Kentucky Derby in some of the horse racing forums, there are always people who say: "he won against a weak crop." Well, what in Heaven's name would be considered a "strong crop?"....twenty Secretariats? Is there a year in the history of the Kentucky Derby that the majority, if not all, of the three-year-old contenders in that Derby were considered to be a "strong crop" on the day of the Derby, not in retrospect?

Re. CA Chrome: he may just be the type of horse who will run only as fast as he has to to win...Maybe he was taught that, or maybe it just comes naturally. I don't think he was out to put on spectacular show for anyone, just yet...just my opinion.


Good question.
It's too early to tell with this years crop.
This year and every year there is no way of knowing how the 3yo's are going to shake out down the road.
Flashback to last year directly after the Derby....
After the performances of Will Take Charge/Palace Malice/Goldencents who knew how good those three colts would turn out ?
Throw in another half dozen out of that Derby field who could still make a nice name for themselves, and suddenly last years field would be considered very strong.
I would think this years field could turn out to be strong.......just not sure which horses.

[MargieRose]

Good question.
It's too early to tell with this years crop.
This year and every year there is no way of knowing how the 3yo's are going to shake out down the road.
Flashback to last year directly after the Derby....
After the performances of Will Take Charge/Palace Malice/Goldencents who knew how good those three colts would turn out ?
Throw in another half dozen out of that Derby field who could still make a nice name for themselves, and suddenly last years field would be considered very strong.
I would think this years field could turn out to be strong.......just not sure which horses.


I agree. If "this year and every year there is no way of knowing how the 3yo's are going to shake out down the road," then I think it is unfair for anyone to determine that a particular crop is "weak," at this point. If no one can come up with a year that the crop was considered to be "strong" on the day of the Kentucky Derby, then logic indicates that the opposite applies, as well.

Personally, I think that Commanding Curve showed a lot of potential with that nice late move:

" The morning after West Point Thoroughbreds' Commanding Curve (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/commanding-curve) made a strong late run to finish second in the Derby, trainer Dallas Stewart said he's 50-50 about running him in the Preakness."We'll see how it goes, that's all,'' Stewart said.
Stewart is thrilled with how Commanding Curve (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/commanding-curve) performed.
"I was watching that son of a gun on the turn, and he was passing horses,” Stewart said. “Boy, he was flying past them. Yeah, he's a really nice horse, and I want to keep him healthy. I want to win a couple big ones with him. I think he's very capable.'' "

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/news/2014/05/04/kentucky-derby-presented-yum-brands-update