Lost in the Derby 97 Beyer conversation is Wise Dan's 94

[classhandicapper]

Again, it was a windy and gusty day. That wreaks havoc with fractions and final times. The pace of the Woodford Reserve looks very slow on the surface (came home in 11:72), but Wise Dan was given a 94.

That may be a bigger story than the 97 for the Derby.

[cj]

Again, it was a windy and gusty day. That wreaks havoc with fractions and final times. The pace of the Woodford Reserve looks very slow on the surface (came home in 11:72), but Wise Dan was given a 94.

That may be a bigger story than the 97 for the Derby.

There was a lot of talk about his trip. Surely that had some effect, no? The turf races are actually pretty solid variant wise in my opinion. I generally have turf races rated much higher than Beyer comparatively speaking, but it wasn't a fast race on my work either.

[PhantomOnTour]

If that Juddmonte runner had nosed out Wise Dan I would have hit a very very very nice Pick 3 :bang:

[Valuist]

Wise Dan's last Beyer was only a 101 and he certainly was all out yesterday. I'm a big fan of the horse but he is looking vulnerable next time out.

[Si2see]

If that Juddmonte runner had nosed out Wise Dan I would have hit a very very very nice Pick 3 :bang:

$20 double for me if the 10 gets up. Every time I try to beat Wise Dan he beats me. For some reason I have never been a fan of the horse, but he is one of the greats

[Speed Figure]

On my numbers here is how California Chrome's win stacks up to the other winner's over the last 5 years. I'm still going over the charts so it may change, but very little.



2014 California Chrome 108.7
2013 Orb 117.8
2012 I'll Have Another 114.2
2011 Animal Kingdom 110.9
2010 Super Saver 110.9
2009 Mine That Bird 116.4

[dannyhill]

I am a bit surprised that so many put so much importance into a figure that for so many reasons is not a true measure of ability.
Considering the brutal Derby trips, a distance that is so very difficult for these horses and for many the additional crowd noises that may be a factor.

[clocker7]

I am a bit surprised that so many put so much importance into a figure that for so many reasons is not a true measure of ability.
Considering the brutal Derby trips, a distance that is so very difficult for these horses and for many the additional crowd noises that may be a factor.
May I call you Wise Danny?

[dannyhill]

May I call you Wise Danny?
If only he was a step slower yesterday.

[Speed Figure]

I am a bit surprised that so many put so much importance into a figure that for so many reasons is not a true measure of ability.
Considering the brutal Derby trips, a distance that is so very difficult for these horses and for many the additional crowd noises that may be a factor.
I'm not putting so much importance on it, but I'm a pace & speed handicapper. Why do NFL teams put so much importance on a college players 40 times? it's the same thing right? regardless of what the number is it will be the best number coming from that race.

[nijinski]

Wise Dan could be losing a step or interest , he's not getting any younger .

Still always happy to see him race . Yesterday was too close for comfort though .

[classhandicapper]

Wise Dan's last Beyer was only a 101 and he certainly was all out yesterday. I'm a big fan of the horse but he is looking vulnerable next time out.

A few people (myself among them) thought he lost a 1/2 step last year. It wasn't so clear given subjective trips, pace, etc.. that you couldn't debate it. But I felt he might have slipped a tad. Last year he didn't start out great but then he moved forward quickly. I'd give him one more race. If he doesn't move forward next time, I'd actually consider retiring him if he was mine. There's not much upside left to his career other than some potential huge victories on dirt. But if he's not the same horse he's not going to win races like that anyway. I'd give him a happy & healthy retirement and wouldn't take any risks (however small) with a horse that has had a HOF career and one of the all time great runs on turf since I've been following the game.

[JustRalph]

I'm not putting so much importance on it, but I'm a pace & speed handicapper. Why do NFL teams put so much importance on a college players 40 times? it's the same thing right? regardless of what the number is it will be the best number coming from that race.

I thought you were a musician? :lol: I guess you can damn sure be both......

[classhandicapper]

There was a lot of talk about his trip. Surely that had some effect, no? The turf races are actually pretty solid variant wise in my opinion. I generally have turf races rated much higher than Beyer comparatively speaking, but it wasn't a fast race on my work either.

Yea, it's hard to for "me" to quantify that trip, but it wasn't smooth and didn't help. His next race should clear up whether he's the same horse or age is starting to catch up to him.

[Speed Figure]

I thought you were a musician?:lol: I guess you can damn sure be both......Just Ralph that's funny!:lol: Back in 1992 I was on tour with MC Hammer. He had a horse name Dance Floor that was running in the derby. We had a big concert the night before and I had a chance to meet all the jockey's and trainers and other owners as they all came to the show. We went to the derby the next day and I couldn't believe how many people were their for a horse race. We all put about $300 each across the board on Dance Floor and won! After that I started to learn how to read the form and started reading books and became hooked! :cool:

[Cratos]

Again, it was a windy and gusty day. That wreaks havoc with fractions and final times. The pace of the Woodford Reserve looks very slow on the surface (came home in 11:72), but Wise Dan was given a 94.

That may be a bigger story than the 97 for the Derby.

Wind doesn't have as much effect on horseracing as you might think because a horse race is run on an oval circuit and almost never run with wind speeds at 30 mph and it is not the wind speed, but the wind force that affects the horse. That force has its greatest effect as a crosswind and that will be only temporary during a race.

[pandy]

Wind doesn't have as much effect on horseracing as you might think because a horse race is run on an oval circuit and almost never run with wind speeds at 30 mph and it is not the wind speed, but the wind force that affects the horse. That force has its greatest effect as a crosswind and that will be only temporary during a race.


I respectfully disagree. In terms of final time, the wind can make a huge difference because, depending on the direction, it can dramatically slow down or speed up the fractions, and the final time. You see this all the time at Aqueduct when there's a tailwind in the stretch, there's a headwind down the back, the pace in sprints is extremely slow and even though the wind is at their back in the stretch, it still slows down the final time.

[Cratos]

I respectfully disagree. In terms of final time, the wind can make a huge difference because, depending on the direction, it can dramatically slow down or speed up the fractions, and the final time. You see this all the time at Aqueduct when there's a tailwind in the stretch, there's a headwind down the back, the pace in sprints is extremely slow and even though the wind is at their back in the stretch, it still slows down the final time.

I don't think we are disagreeing; but the calculation is non- trivia. The Taylor formula is what to use after you have determined area and direction.

We tend to surmise something is effective because of what we see or feel, but science is about proof and the greatest wind effect on a racehorse when it is moving is the "sail effect" and that typically happens in a crosswind.

[PaceAdvantage]

Just Ralph that's funny!:lol: Back in 1992 I was on tour with MC Hammer. He had a horse name Dance Floor that was running in the derby. We had a big concert the night before and I had a chance to meet all the jockey's and trainers and other owners as they all came to the show. We went to the derby the next day and I couldn't believe how many people were their for a horse race. We all put about $300 each across the board on Dance Floor and won! After that I started to learn how to read the form and started reading books and became hooked! :cool: That's one heckuva "how I got started in racing" story...love it! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Valuist]

A few people (myself among them) thought he lost a 1/2 step last year. It wasn't so clear given subjective trips, pace, etc.. that you couldn't debate it. But I felt he might have slipped a tad. Last year he didn't start out great but then he moved forward quickly. I'd give him one more race. If he doesn't move forward next time, I'd actually consider retiring him if he was mine. There's not much upside left to his career other than some potential huge victories on dirt. But if he's not the same horse he's not going to win races like that anyway. I'd give him a happy & healthy retirement and wouldn't take any risks (however small) with a horse that has had a HOF career and one of the all time great runs on turf since I've been following the game.

I don't know if we can use the first race of the year as an excuse. I remember him making a seasonal debut a couple years ago at Keeneland and he ran the fastest Polytrack Beyer in history.

[Speed Figure]

That's one heckuva "how I got started in racing" story...love it! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:Thanks a lot PA! ;)

[classhandicapper]

I don't know if we can use the first race of the year as an excuse. I remember him making a seasonal debut a couple years ago at Keeneland and he ran the fastest Polytrack Beyer in history.

I hear you.

I don't want to pronounce him "on the way down" given there are mitigating circumstances to his first 2 races this year. He could easily jump back up with a couple of races under his belt and a better trip. I just haven't even considered playing against him over the last 2 years. I am now.

[AfleetAlex]

His performance definitely got over-shadowed by the Derby & California Chrome. Wise Dan is unlikely to race again until this summer at Saratoga. Connections are aiming him towards the Whitney in hopes of gearing up for the Breeders' Cup Classic this fall. 3x Horse of the Year?

[highnote]

I am a bit surprised that so many put so much importance into a figure that for so many reasons is not a true measure of ability.

If time is not the true measure of ability of a racehorse then what is?

Now, one speed figure in isolation is probably not the best way to measure a horse's ability. It is probably better to look at the entire body of work of a horse. This is a what the most successful bettors do. By successful I mean the bettors who have made the most money with computerized betting models.

But for those people who handicap without computers a speed figure is probably the best tool available to measure the ability of a race horse. The hard part is using past speed figures to predict a future performance.

[cj]

If time is not the true measure of ability of a racehorse then what is?

Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't. The horses aren't racing for the best time, they are racing to get to the wire first.

[Valuist]

I hear you.

I don't want to pronounce him "on the way down" given there are mitigating circumstances to his first 2 races this year. He could easily jump back up with a couple of races under his belt and a better trip. I just haven't even considered playing against him over the last 2 years. I am now.

I am likely to play against him next time as well. That aside, as a racing fan, I love watching him because he has a tremendous will to win.

[classhandicapper]

I am likely to play against him next time as well. That aside, as a racing fan, I love watching him because he has a tremendous will to win.

IMO best US based turf miler since Lure.

[highnote]

Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn't. The horses aren't racing for the best time, they are racing to get to the wire first.


The horse that gets the best time is the horse that crosses under the wire first.

[cj]

The horse that gets the best time is the horse that crosses under the wire first.

Right, I'm just saying that the final time is not always a reflection of how fast the horses could have run.

[Valuist]

IMO best US based turf miler since Lure.

Absolutely.

I also wonder if his falloff in his last was due to the fact 9 furlongs may be pushing the limit for him. I remember he ran in the Foster on dirt at CD a couple years ago and he barely got beat but the final furlong was real slow. Ron the Greek got up to win, I believe.

[cj]

Absolutely.

I also wonder if his falloff in his last was due to the fact 9 furlongs may be pushing the limit for him. I remember he ran in the Foster on dirt at CD a couple years ago and he barely got beat but the final furlong was real slow. Ron the Greek got up to win, I believe.

The pace was pretty insane that day.

[highnote]

Right, I'm just saying that the final time is not always a reflection of how fast the horses could have run.

I agree. Otherwise, handicapping would be a lot easier. :D

[senortout]

with only a couple subtle wind shifts during the Derby itself, the horse may have been facing crosswinds most of the way around!

If the track were oriented this way...
grandstand on south
clubhouse turn to the east
backstretch run to the north
final turn to the west.

wind blowing from the south at start of race and they're in a crosswind.
wind shifts and is coming from the west around the clubhouse turn and, you guessed it they're in a crosswind still
wind shifts and now coming from the south again as they enter the backstretch and...more crosswinds
westerly wind again on the final turn..you guessed it more crosswinds...
biggest winds of all down the stretch, not only from southerly wind again, but this time aided by the shouts and cheers of 150,000 plus fans and that not all...you wait for it


a Hot southerly breeze, and crosswinds.
just sayin'