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luisbe
05-04-2014, 02:11 PM
Cal. Chrome winner with a 97 BSF.

elhelmete
05-04-2014, 02:18 PM
Yes, I hear the connections have plans to return the trophy and purse money, so as not to be tarnished with an asterisk.
:ThmbUp:

bks
05-04-2014, 02:19 PM
97 is a bit of a joke, isn't it?

What BSF did Midnight lucky run for her 1.22 and change?

SecretAgentMan
05-04-2014, 02:31 PM
I went back to 1995 & all derby winners received a 100 or higher. Is Andy Beyer & the rest of pedigree lovers pissed because he won the derby & gave him a low number? I don't know but what I do know & said about 2 weeks ago was this years 3 year old crop is weak except for Chrome.

I'm wondering what Brisnet will give Chrome, then again, I only use Beyers speed numbers.

I'm expecting a 103 to 105 in the Preakness, then again, he may only need a 98 to beat the rest of these.

There will be fresh legs like Social Inclusion & Bayern. Baffeet stated, the only horse he will run is Bayern.......maybe he's getting Hoppy cranked & ready for the Belmont. I know Baffert wants to play spoiler but IMO, Hoppy won't be the horse beating him in the Belmont, that's if he's even beat.

Smarty Jones won the derby in a time of 2:04 by was run in the slop. He received a 107, down from 109 & 112 previously.

IMO, Chromes numbers will go over 100 in the shorter distance than the derby. I'm thinking for Chrome to win the crown, he will need to bust a 110 at Belmont but with this years weak crop, a 103 may be sufficient.

clocker7
05-04-2014, 02:34 PM
One thing to take into consideration is that California Chrome might not have particularly liked the surface at Churchill, and yet prevailed anyway. How would you know?

davew
05-04-2014, 02:34 PM
I bet Social Inclusions conections wished they would have gone the AE route and gotten into the Derby. The longer stretch before the first turn would have given him more chance to get towards the lead without expending too much energy like in the Wood.

Smarty Cide
05-04-2014, 02:36 PM
correct me if im wrong but isnt the low beyer a product of the slow pace? whats chromeo supposed to do? He took off when he needed to to win the race... isnt that the ultimate goal? not running a fast time

Saratoga_Mike
05-04-2014, 02:36 PM
I went back to 1995 & all derby winners received a 100 or higher. Is Andy Beyer & the rest of pedigree lovers pissed because he won the derby & gave him a low number? I don't know but what I do know & said about 2 weeks ago was this years 3 year old crop is weak except for Chrome.

I'm wondering what Brisnet will give Chrome, then again, I only use Beyers speed numbers.

I'm expecting a 103 to 105 in the Preakness, then again, he may only need a 98 to beat the rest of these.

There will be fresh legs like Social Inclusion & Bayern. Baffeet stated, the only horse he will run is Bayern.......maybe he's getting Hoppy cranked & ready for the Belmont. I know Baffert wants to play spoiler but IMO, Hoppy won't be the horse beating him in the Belmont, that's if he's even beat.

Smarty Jones won the derby in a time of 2:04 by was run in the slop. He received a 107, down from 109 & 112 previously.

IMO, Chromes numbers will go over 100 in the shorter distance than the derby. I'm thinking for Chrome to win the crown, he will need to bust a 110 at Belmont but with this years weak crop, a 103 may be sufficient.

All logical - Thx.

BettinBilly
05-04-2014, 02:40 PM
Well, luckily for the sport the bulk of the people watching the Derby have no idea that the Beyer was low.... or even what a Beyer Speed Figure is for that matter.

Robert Fischer
05-04-2014, 02:45 PM
I only watched it once, but it seemed like the winner ran fairly well. He seemed to get a pretty good forwardly placed trip, and then pulled away, and he wasn't staggering badly or anything while winning.

Someone's number isn't going to change that impression.

I'd have to re-watch the race several times, and then see something that indicated that it was a poor performance by the winner.
Again, I've only seen it once, but that would seem unlikely.

SecretAgentMan
05-04-2014, 02:51 PM
Espinoza ran a perfect race......I love that they went slow. Didn't take much of this horse. The trainer & jockey both said before the race they wanted a clean break & to place him forwardly & if that happened, a target to run at & that happened, the rest was easy street.

horses4courses
05-04-2014, 03:03 PM
CC did what it took, and he did it easily.
This horse may come back with a higher number at Pimlico, if that matters.

What's not to like about this guy?
An $8K mare, and a $2K stud fee.

California Chrome is what dreams are made of....... :ThmbUp:

FantasticDan
05-04-2014, 03:13 PM
What was it that Jerry Bailey said after the race when they were discussing the slow time on a fast track? You don't have to run as fast as you can, just faster than everyone chasing you :D :ThmbUp:

I'm delighted for Chrome and his connections, it is indeed a great story. My wife hasn't stopped haranging me about not using him in my exotics, but I still stand by my toss :ThmbUp: ;) :bang:

BettinBilly
05-04-2014, 03:35 PM
Don't feel bad, Dan.

I did use Chrome in my exotics, and hit one, but the rest? Well, next year.

Smarty Cide
05-04-2014, 03:44 PM
What was it that Jerry Bailey said after the race when they were discussing the slow time on a fast track? You don't have to run as fast as you can, just faster than everyone chasing you :D :ThmbUp:

I'm delighted for Chrome and his connections, it is indeed a great story. My wife hasn't stopped haranging me about not using him in my exotics, but I still stand by my toss :ThmbUp: ;) :bang:


you stand by your toss? but he won, and you tossed him... how can you stand by it?

would you do it again if you could?

FantasticDan
05-04-2014, 04:44 PM
you stand by your toss? but he won, and you tossed him... how can you stand by it? would you do it again if you could?I stand by tossing a 2-1 shot in the Kentucky Derby that's never raced outside of CA and by most accounts was stiff and not comfortable looking training on the CD track. I hate chalk, and I especially hate chalk in the KD. :cool:

JustRalph
05-04-2014, 06:25 PM
I stand by tossing a 2-1 shot in the Kentucky Derby that's never raced outside of CA and by most accounts was stiff and not comfortable looking training on the CD track. I hate chalk, and I especially hate chalk in the KD. :cool:

Case Dismissed! :ThmbUp:

horses4courses
05-04-2014, 06:40 PM
There's no way in heck that I'm betting CC in the Derby at anything close to those odds.
19 horse field, with all those question marks? Pass.

But I was rooting for him down the stretch like I had bet way more on him than I could afford to lose........ ;)

iceknight
05-04-2014, 06:44 PM
My only winning bet connected to the derby:
I had an Untapable, Rosalind with Intense Holiday/California Chrome Oaks double. $ 4 returned 5.70. Whoop whoop. But I was so happy to see both of these favorites win. They truly lived up to their billing and that is one thing I love about this sport when they click and perform on the big stage! (And Wise Dan's win was a little heart stopping, but he prevailed!)

My other exotic tickets with Chrome/Intense Holiday/Wildcat Red etc bust obviously. The only angle that I could find myself betting on Commanding Curve post race was that he is also a CC. So if you are a big can C-notes you could have bet CC-CC exactas. Based on PPs I would've not bet Chrome alone and I clearly did not expect this Curve ball :lol:

luisbe
05-04-2014, 09:52 PM
97 is a bit of a joke, isn't it?

What BSF did Midnight lucky run for her 1.22 and change?

Midnight Lucky, 95. Wise Dan, 94. Central banker, 107. Untapable, 107.

SecretAgentMan
05-04-2014, 10:28 PM
Midnight Lucky, 95. Wise Dan, 94. Central banker, 107. Untapable, 107.


This puts things in a perspective......

PaceAdvantage
05-05-2014, 01:44 AM
I don't know You could have started and stopped there...

PaceAdvantage
05-05-2014, 01:44 AM
you stand by your toss? but he won, and you tossed him... how can you stand by it?

would you do it again if you could?Without a doubt.

Valuist
05-05-2014, 09:35 AM
correct me if im wrong but isnt the low beyer a product of the slow pace? whats chromeo supposed to do? He took off when he needed to to win the race... isnt that the ultimate goal? not running a fast time

Nope. Many times the biggest figures are a result of a good horse setting a comfortable early pace, then having plenty of energy to use late in the race. The only exception might be if the pace if absurdly slow, like in last year's Remsen, when they went :52 to the half. In that case, they were never going to run a 1:47 and change mile and an eighth.

aaron
05-05-2014, 09:52 AM
If I remember correctly,Seattle Slew had a very slow Beyer and he turned out to be pretty good.

clocker7
05-05-2014, 10:06 AM
If I remember correctly,Seattle Slew had a very slow Beyer and he turned out to be pretty good.
Not sure that a Beyer was ever calculated for SS

That being said, people should rewatch his KD and Preakness races, where he seemed to be decelerating noticably under a hand ride--and being caught by competitors--at the finish line also. Some bettors undoubtedly took that as a sign that he was vulnerable for his next TC race, but it didn't work out that way for them.

Great speed duels, both.

1977 KD: (saddlecloth #3)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iw-QYkEjVBM

1977 Preakness: (#8)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5-9PgNPXok

The stretch runs look almost identical.

JeffH
05-05-2014, 12:56 PM
There was no way I was betting Chrome at those odds. I had win money only on Commanding Curve-probably my biggest mistake.

horses4courses
05-05-2014, 01:08 PM
If I remember correctly,Seattle Slew had a very slow Beyer and he turned out to be pretty good.

Nor does the list of 140 KY Derby winners have anything but the names of horses and connections.

Not a speed figure in sight.

bks
05-05-2014, 01:21 PM
If anyone really thinks that if the race was run 7 times CC wouldn't win 2 or more, I think you're deluding yourself. The proof lies in the fate of the other horses who attended the allegedly pedestrian pace. All of them were well beaten. That's very hard to dismiss as racing luck. He was much, much better than them.

lamboguy
05-05-2014, 02:53 PM
i thought the race was great, and CALIFORNIA CHROME was the best horse and probably will run even better next time.

he has the most races under his belt and has proved he's the real deal. time will tell how he matches up to the other great horses prior to this year.

classhandicapper
05-05-2014, 04:00 PM
Without a doubt.

I second the motion.

He wasn't on any of my double, pick-3, exacta or win/place tickets (I had the 2nd and 3rd place finishers as part of my exacta box), but I still feel like I made a sensible play given the prices.

I keyed on a horse I thought might be better than the figures suggested that could shock if the pace was moderate and he worked out a good trip and I made a "collapsed race" play in the exactas if there was a pace meltdown.

classhandicapper
05-05-2014, 04:01 PM
If anyone really thinks that if the race was run 7 times CC wouldn't win 2 or more, I think you're deluding yourself. The proof lies in the fate of the other horses who attended the allegedly pedestrian pace. All of them were well beaten. That's very hard to dismiss as racing luck. He was much, much better than them.

After the fact I agree with you, but based on what was knowable before the race IMHO he was an underlay.

SecretAgentMan
05-05-2014, 04:48 PM
An underlay still pays money to the winning ticket holders.......did the exacta of $340 look like an underlay with a 5-2 on top? How about the triple or super?

It makes no sense to me trying to beat a horse even when most people know he's unbeatable. I felt this way before the race & I feel this way through the Belmont race.

Does the favorite look the best in the derby every year? Heck no...........you just got to shuffle thru all the media. Bs.......like I said, the clockers & supposed drf experts watching the workouts had hit the past 3 derby's & there was a good chance they were gonna lose touting Inside Holiday & Wicked Strong.

The way the media hyped up Wicked Strong, you would think he was undefeated going in.

Tom
05-05-2014, 07:07 PM
How many favorites have won the last 25 derbies?

michiken
05-05-2014, 07:09 PM
I wait all year long for the 2 minutes that is the Derby!

- 20 runners make this the most unique race of the year.

- I start getting excited the night before and pour thru the form hoping to cash big.

- Been doing this for 25 plus years and still get a rush jut like a kid stealing a cookie from the jar or riding a roller coaster.

"There is no such thing as a Bad Derby". Just my bad handicapping!!!!!!!!

classhandicapper
05-05-2014, 07:30 PM
An underlay still pays money to the winning ticket holders.......did the exacta of $340 look like an underlay with a 5-2 on top? How about the triple or super?

It makes no sense to me trying to beat a horse even when most people know he's unbeatable. I felt this way before the race & I feel this way through the Belmont race.

Does the favorite look the best in the derby every year? Heck no...........you just got to shuffle thru all the media. Bs.......like I said, the clockers & supposed drf experts watching the workouts had hit the past 3 derby's & there was a good chance they were gonna lose touting Inside Holiday & Wicked Strong.

The way the media hyped up Wicked Strong, you would think he was undefeated going in.

If you thought this horses was unbeatable I can't agree with you.

If you gave him a higher probability of winning than I did, so be it. Then maybe you thought he was an overlay. However, the fact that he won says nothing about whether he really was an overlay or underlay.

luisbe
05-05-2014, 08:44 PM
An underlay still pays money to the winning ticket holders.......did the exacta of $340 look like an underlay with a 5-2 on top? How about the triple or super?

It makes no sense to me trying to beat a horse even when most people know he's unbeatable. I felt this way before the race & I feel this way through the Belmont race.

Does the favorite look the best in the derby every year? Heck no...........you just got to shuffle thru all the media. Bs.......like I said, the clockers & supposed drf experts watching the workouts had hit the past 3 derby's & there was a good chance they were gonna lose touting Inside Holiday & Wicked Strong.

The way the media hyped up Wicked Strong, you would think he was undefeated going in.

From a handicapper point of view in such as way you'll lose a ton of money, playing overlays will keep you in green in the long run. That's the way to bet like it or not.
This is beyond the quality of a horse, which is not under discussion here.
When you say an exacta pays $340, only if you liked the second horse; many people bet CC/all and that's a cost of 18 for a reward of 170, a little more that 7-1 but IF the second was Danza they would have lost.
I thought we all are here because we're handicappers and, at least, we should give some teaching to those just beginning.
Now, you can go ahead and bet CC in the Preakness at 3/5 if you wanted but don't try to sell us that's smart handicapping, because it is not.

horses4courses
05-05-2014, 11:11 PM
Recent twitter posts from Bruno De Julio.
By the way, he liked Commanding Curve in the Derby.

Racingwithbruno @Racingwithbruno · May 4
Horses that 2:02 or slower in Derby proved to be champions, the fastest was a bust at stud and never did anything after derby

* I'm thinking when he mentions Secretariat, he meant after the TC.
That's a bit harsh, though, as he won some nice races.

Racingwithbruno @Racingwithbruno · May 4
Sunday Silence 2:05, Alysheba 2:03.2 Silver Charm 2:02.2, Animal kingdom 2:02, And of course Monarchos 1:59.4 - time doesn't mean anything

PaceAdvantage
05-06-2014, 12:44 AM
Yes, time means nothing. Why do they even bother installing and maintaining teletimers (well, except for places like Gulfstream and Arlington, who apparently do NOT maintain their teletimer).

Why do they bother to time races in the Olympics? I mean, Usain Bolt is Usain Bolt...doesn't matter how fast he runs, right? All that matters is that he wins...

Ask Usain if time is important...and if he's not out there each and every time trying to better his prior best clocking...I assure you he is...

Those of you who claim time is unimportant and means nothing are just trying to make excuses for a slow time... :lol: :lol:

clocker7
05-06-2014, 04:05 AM
My name is clocker7 and I pay attention to times out of preference. I also indulge in history.

At this point, it is premature to knock this colt about his time. It could be the result of many factors that add up to superficially detract from the actual value of his performance. As one who went through the process of building private figs, I regularly came across confounding examples that were too misleading to use for anything meaningful. History is full of them. The 2014 KD could be one of them (but maybe not, too early to tell).

I own DRF chart books and have conducted research. One of the most interesting was my chart-by-chart study of the NY tracks in 1972 and 1973. The speedy condition of the courses there led to an unprecedented assault on the record books. Freaky marks were set, and the majority of NTRs were done by allowance horses. Some of them were astounding, like the new 5 1/2f time set by a 2yo (on the day before Secretariat's Belmont Stakes) that chopped off 4/5 of a second; some of them were bizarre, like the 1973 Brooklyn ( 2 full seconds lower), when 6 out of the 7 horses broke or equaled the track record. Trust me, horses like King's Bishop (broke Belmont's 7f TR by 4/5 second) and Spanish Riddle (broke Saratoga's 6f record by 1 1/5 seconds in an allowance race) might not have become notables had it not been for the pavement qualities that existed there during those years.

Point is: people still marvel at some of the times set in that era, but so many were the result of a bogus set of conditions that prevailed. Will people still be paying homage years from now, while the feats of those who ran on more honest tracks be discounted ... sure. People like to stand in awe, and will wink both eyes to do so.

funnsss1
05-06-2014, 04:51 AM
no matter the odd, tossing the best horse is always a losing proposition

thaskalos
05-06-2014, 05:00 AM
My name is clocker7 and I pay attention to times out of preference. I also indulge in history.

At this point, it is premature to knock this colt about his time. It could be the result of many factors that add up to superficially detract from the actual value of his performance. As one who went through the process of building private figs, I regularly came across confounding examples that were too misleading to use for anything meaningful. History is full of them. The 2014 KD could be one of them (but maybe not, too early to tell).

I own DRF chart books and have conducted research. One of the most interesting was my chart-by-chart study of the NY tracks in 1972 and 1973. The speedy condition of the courses there led to an unprecedented assault on the record books. Freaky marks were set, and the majority of NTRs were done by allowance horses. Some of them were astounding, like the new 5 1/2f time set by a 2yo (on the day before Secretariat's Belmont Stakes) that chopped off 4/5 of a second; some of them were bizarre, like the 1973 Brooklyn ( 2 full seconds lower), when 6 out of the 7 horses broke or equaled the track record. Trust me, horses like King's Bishop (broke Belmont's 7f TR by 4/5 second) and Spanish Riddle (broke Saratoga's 6f record by 1 1/5 seconds in an allowance race) might not have become notables had it not been for the pavement qualities that existed there during those years.

Point is: people still marvel at some of the times set in that era, but so many were the result of a bogus set of conditions that prevailed. Will people still be paying homage years from now, while the feats of those who ran on more honest tracks be discounted ... sure. People like to stand in awe, and will wink both eyes to do so.

Since you indulge in history...you must also know that there have been some technical advancements in this game since the early 70s...which allow the handicapper to make sense of the lightening-fast timings attributed to these "bogus conditions". There is a world of of difference between raw racing times and adjusted speed figures.

California Chrome's abnormally-low Derby Beyer figure may not be a matter of grave concern, but it is not a rousing endorsement for the horse's chances of winning the Belmont. Great horses usually finish with authority when they get dream trips while sitting off comfortable paces; they don't get closed upon by the worst horse in the race.

Call me a skeptic, as far as CC's Triple Crown chances are concerned.

iceknight
05-06-2014, 05:29 AM
Since you indulge in history...you must also know that there have been some technical advancements in this game since the early 70s...which allow the handicapper to make sense of the lightening-fast timings attributed to these "bogus conditions". There is a world of of difference between raw racing times and adjusted speed figures.

California Chrome's abnormally-low Derby Beyer figure may not be a matter of grave concern, but it is not a rousing endorsement for the horse's chances of winning the Belmont. Great horses usually finish with authority when they get dream trips while sitting off comfortable paces; they don't get closed upon by the worst horse in the race.

Call me a skeptic, as far as CC's Triple Crown chances are concerned. I am feeling sorry for Commanding Curve. This horses comes second in an 18 horse field and you have the audacity to call him "the worst in the race" :lol: Some horseplayers never admit defeat. I am skeptical of Chrome in the Belmont, but that is just because Belmont is Belmont. However, as many others pointed out Seattle Slew's derby win was nt impressive either at the wire

thaskalos
05-06-2014, 05:48 AM
I am feeling sorry for Commanding Curve. This horses comes second in an 18 horse field and you have the audacity to call him "the worst in the race" :lol: Some horseplayers never admit defeat. I am skeptical of Chrome in the Belmont, but that is just because Belmont is Belmont. However, as many others pointed out Seattle Slew's derby win was nt impressive either at the wire
"Admit defeat"? I didn't lose anything in the race...I am just saying what I saw. And what I saw was a horse tiring at the end of a race, where the pace was comfortable and the last quarter was slow.

And how much "audacity" does it take to call Commanding Curve the worst horse in that race? Are you looking for him to give an encore performance anytime soon?

thaskalos
05-06-2014, 06:15 AM
I am feeling sorry for Commanding Curve. This horses comes second in an 18 horse field and you have the audacity to call him "the worst in the race" :lol: Some horseplayers never admit defeat. I am skeptical of Chrome in the Belmont, but that is just because Belmont is Belmont. However, as many others pointed out Seattle Slew's derby win was nt impressive either at the wire

And you talk about MY audacity? Take a look at Seattle Slew's Derby effort...and tell me if it reminds you of California Chrome's.

The winning margin is only a reflection of what takes place earlier in the race...

pandy
05-06-2014, 09:00 AM
http://www.handicappingwinners.com/thoroughbetting.htm

PaceAdvantage
05-06-2014, 09:01 AM
no matter the odd, tossing the best horse is always a losing propositionA truly meaningless statement if there ever was one.

Vinnie
05-06-2014, 09:23 AM
http://www.handicappingwinners.com/thoroughbetting.htm

Very nice article Pandy.. I believe that you hit the nail on the veritable head.

Thanks for sharing sir. :)

clocker7
05-06-2014, 10:05 AM
Since you indulge in history...you must also know that there have been some technical advancements in this game since the early 70s...which allow the handicapper to make sense of the lightening-fast timings attributed to these "bogus conditions". There is a world of of difference between raw racing times and adjusted speed figures.

California Chrome's abnormally-low Derby Beyer figure may not be a matter of grave concern, but it is not a rousing endorsement for the horse's chances of winning the Belmont. Great horses usually finish with authority when they get dream trips while sitting off comfortable paces; they don't get closed upon by the worst horse in the race.

Call me a skeptic, as far as CC's Triple Crown chances are concerned.
My comment was more about the muddying of history using sketchy raw times, than about the "advanced" attempt to rationalize them since.

But take this to the bank: there were a lot more brainy people (with access to mainframes at their universities or places of work) attacking figs years ago in the crowded stands, as opposed to the empty ones now. Imo, the only technical advance of any real scientific merit has been Trakus. Otherwise, there always were systems galore based upon all sorts of arithmetical tinkering and applying subjective special sauces to speed and pace problems ... for decades. The fact that some got published and were hailed as breakthroughs doesn't mean that they were/are. (There were private beyers employing the identical theory well before Beyer wrote anything about his methods.) For the most part, the vast majority of brainy antecedents left the game after determining that the upward march of the take meant that further participation did not merit their time anymore, gone so long that it left their younger relatives with the haywire impression that they are pioneering fresh ground.

Rex Phinney
05-06-2014, 01:28 PM
Yes, time means nothing. Why do they even bother installing and maintaining teletimers (well, except for places like Gulfstream and Arlington, who apparently do NOT maintain their teletimer).

Why do they bother to time races in the Olympics? I mean, Usain Bolt is Usain Bolt...doesn't matter how fast he runs, right? All that matters is that he wins...

Ask Usain if time is important...and if he's not out there each and every time trying to better his prior best clocking...I assure you he is...

Those of you who claim time is unimportant and means nothing are just trying to make excuses for a slow time... :lol: :lol:

You gotta be kidding me right.

Didn't you swear all up and down that the time form numbers said that the NY horses would crush CC.

That we shouldn't bother with the times in the wood vs. SA Derby because times don't tell the story.

He won the race, the other 18 horses went slower than he did.

You're taking on more of the look of hater more and more. You are unwilling to admit that you were wrong.

FWIW CC ran the final 1/4 in the Derby in about the same time that Wicked Strong did in the Wood. What exactly has changed to make it "slow" now? I mean besides the obvious bias you have towards the east coast horses?

PaceAdvantage
05-06-2014, 01:50 PM
You gotta be kidding me right.

Didn't you swear all up and down that the time form numbers said that the NY horses would crush CC.

That we shouldn't bother with the times in the wood vs. SA Derby because times don't tell the story.

He won the race, the other 18 horses went slower than he did.

You're taking on more of the look of hater more and more. You are unwilling to admit that you were wrong.

FWIW CC ran the final 1/4 in the Derby in about the same time that Wicked Strong did in the Wood. What exactly has changed to make it "slow" now? I mean besides the obvious bias you have towards the east coast horses?No, I didn't say anything of the sort. Why would I make CC my fourth choice in a field of 19 if I thought he would be CRUSHED??

I never said he would be crushed. I said he wasn't my top pick and I thought he would be a poor bet at his odds. I would have bet CC if he went off at 9-1....

Why must you people rewrite history? My posts are on this board for all to see. Yet people keep making up stuff about what I wrote... :lol:

At least I'm getting a good laugh out of all of this silliness.

Rex Phinney
05-06-2014, 05:45 PM
No, I didn't say anything of the sort. Why would I make CC my fourth choice in a field of 19 if I thought he would be CRUSHED??

I never said he would be crushed. I said he wasn't my top pick and I thought he would be a poor bet at his odds. I would have bet CC if he went off at 9-1....

Why must you people rewrite history? My posts are on this board for all to see. Yet people keep making up stuff about what I wrote... :lol:

At least I'm getting a good laugh out of all of this silliness.

OK, so you didn't use the term "crushed".

I do remember pointing out to you that the final 3 furlongs of the Wood was very slow, even after the first 6 furlongs where ran in similar time to the SA Derby, and you still thought Wicked Strong could win the derby. So why now, is the slow final furlongs in an even longer race such a big deal.

You also cited that the timeform numbers signaled the Wood was the strongest major prep, now zero horses have come from that race to hit the board in the Derby.

None of that is made up.

I don't like you referring to me as "You people", what I'm offering is much more insightful than to say CC is the next Secretariat because his jockey was striking a pose at the finish line. So don't go lumping me in with the Fanboys who registered two weeks ago.

I played CC in an exacta over the entire field, so there was some value to be had even if you did have him to win. I did the same on a tri ticket with 4 horses underneath him, that one didn't pan out, but the derby IMO can always offer value because the horses on the board at the end of the day are anyone's guess.

thaskalos
05-06-2014, 05:52 PM
I played CC in an exacta over the entire field, so there was some value to be had even if you did have him to win. I did the same on a tri ticket with 4 horses underneath him, that one didn't pan out, but the derby IMO can always offer value because the horses on the board at the end of the day are anyone's guess.

To be fair, "value" is assessed BEFORE the race is run, not afterwards. It's questionable to assume that wheeling the entire field behind the strong favorite in the exacta is a profitable long-term Derby-betting maneuver.

PaceAdvantage
05-06-2014, 06:00 PM
OK, so you didn't use the term "crushed".

I do remember pointing out to you that the final 3 furlongs of the Wood was very slow, even after the first 6 furlongs where ran in similar time to the SA Derby, and you still thought Wicked Strong could win the derby. So why now, is the slow final furlongs in an even longer race such a big deal.I don't know why the slow final furlongs in an even longer race is such a big deal. You'd have to ask someone who is making such a case. I have never discussed the final furlongs of the Derby on this board.

thaskalos
05-06-2014, 06:07 PM
I don't know why the slow final furlongs in an even longer race is such a big deal. You'd have to ask someone who is making such a case. I have never discussed the final furlongs of the Derby on this board.

I did!

If a person is going to make the case that the moderate Derby pace contributed to the race's slow final time...then the case should also be made that a moderate pace greatly enhances the chances of a strong final fraction. After all...these horses have to run strongly SOMETIME during the race, before we shower them with accolades.

Rex Phinney
05-06-2014, 06:08 PM
To be fair, "value" is assessed BEFORE the race is run, not afterwards. It's questionable to assume that wheeling the entire field behind the strong favorite in the exacta is a profitable long-term Derby-betting maneuver.

Fair enough, but it is a better strategy in a race like the Derby than a 6 horse race on a Thursday.

All I'm doing is trying to find a way to bet CC to win and get better than 5/2.

It's the first time I've ever bet the derby that way, I just thought he would win and rolled the dice that a longshot (I didn't know who) would do well. The Derby favorite isn't usually that low, so I never really consider it.

Rex Phinney
05-06-2014, 08:48 PM
I did!

If a person is going to make the case that the moderate Derby pace contributed to the race's slow final time...then the case should also be made that a moderate pace greatly enhances the chances of a strong final fraction. After all...these horses have to run strongly SOMETIME during the race, before we shower them with accolades.

CC won the Derby, there should be no reason not to give him some accolades.

I'm looking at the finishing order of the top 6 runners at the 1st and 2nd call. All of them except CC backed up, most of them badly (Vicar's in trouble was last. Also I'm seeing that Commanding Curve was 18th up the back stretch, he wins the race if Chrome isn't in here.

All this tells me that the pace whether you think it was moderate, fast or turtle speed, was enough to force the pace setters to the back, and allow Commanding Curve the chance to circle the field. That considered it seems impressive enough to me that CC won the race. If he was no better than Samraat, Vicar's, Chitu or Uncle Sigh he would have backed up just like they did.

goatchaser
05-06-2014, 11:09 PM
Chrome has a chance as long as they keep Rocco JR out of the race. I didn't hear anything about this...But he almost put Vicars in trouble over the rail..It seemed going into the first turn. Then a previous race in the day he almost did the same thing in another race. I don't know much about him...But is he known as kind of a Reckless Jock?

Striker
05-06-2014, 11:57 PM
How many favorites have won the last 25 derbies?
Chrome, Orb, Big Brown, Street Sense, Smarty Jones, Fu Peg.

:6:

thaskalos
05-07-2014, 12:41 AM
CC won the Derby, there should be no reason not to give him some accolades.

I'm looking at the finishing order of the top 6 runners at the 1st and 2nd call. All of them except CC backed up, most of them badly (Vicar's in trouble was last. Also I'm seeing that Commanding Curve was 18th up the back stretch, he wins the race if Chrome isn't in here.

All this tells me that the pace whether you think it was moderate, fast or turtle speed, was enough to force the pace setters to the back, and allow Commanding Curve the chance to circle the field. That considered it seems impressive enough to me that CC won the race. If he was no better than Samraat, Vicar's, Chitu or Uncle Sigh he would have backed up just like they did.

He was better than Samraat, Vicar's In Trouble, Chitu and Uncle Sigh...but I am not so sure that he is better than Wicked Strong.

iceknight
05-07-2014, 02:03 AM
And you talk about MY audacity? Take a look at Seattle Slew's Derby effort...and tell me if it reminds you of California Chrome's.

The winning margin is only a reflection of what takes place earlier in the race...I actually went back and looked at Slew's derby race before posting that comment. It didnt look any magnificent, but he clearly won the race and that's what mattered. With respect to 2nd placer... It was more the language you used. Commanding Curve was not one of the worst going INTO the race. He had a fast closing third in the LA derby and several others had mentioned his chances as a closing longshot. I didnt have him anywhere as I could bring myself to pick only 2-3 other horses for exotics. I think he is a horse on the improving pattern. He may or may not do well in Belmont, but he certainly has a big race in due this year. How can you call him the worst AFTER watching the derby. If you had called him that before the race based on the PP and the odds, yeah, that does not take much audacity. But, after he comes 2nd and finishes well? smh

Rex Phinney
05-07-2014, 02:11 AM
He was better than Samraat, Vicar's In Trouble, Chitu and Uncle Sigh...but I am not so sure that he is better than Wicked Strong.

I'm sorry you feel that way, as it is, IMO Wicked Strong's best chance to beat him is now past.

Why are you not sure? What makes you think Wicked Strong might still be better than CC? One has won 5 stakes in a row, the other didn't hit the board on Derby day and won a prep race that kind of fell into his lap.

Rex Phinney
05-07-2014, 02:14 AM
I actually went back and looked at Slew's derby race before posting that comment. It didnt look any magnificent, but he clearly won the race and that's what mattered. With respect to 2nd placer... It was more the language you used. Commanding Curve was not one of the worst going INTO the race. He had a fast closing third in the LA derby and several others had mentioned his chances as a closing longshot. I didnt have him anywhere as I could bring myself to pick only 2-3 other horses for exotics. I think he is a horse on the improving pattern. He may or may not do well in Belmont, but he certainly has a big race in due this year. How can you call him the worst AFTER watching the derby. If you had called him that before the race based on the PP and the odds, yeah, that does not take much audacity. But, after he comes 2nd and finishes well? smh

I had a show bet on Commanding Curve, he had some decent races at Churchill last year, that's why I gave him a small shot.

classhandicapper
05-07-2014, 04:17 PM
This is not to take anything away from CC. But IMO, there is no comparison between Slew's and CA Chrome's Derby.

Slew got left at the start, was used hard being rush up into contention, bulled his way between horses to the lead, dueled with one of his main competitors in fast fractions, and won with something left.

Even though it wasn't a strong Derby field and the race was not particularly fast, very few 3yos I have seen would have won with that trip.

onefast99
05-07-2014, 04:22 PM
I had a show bet on Commanding Curve, he had some decent races at Churchill last year, that's why I gave him a small shot.
I know you liked Chrome you posted that before the race, now you had commanding curve also? I didn't see where commanding curve even fit this group, what made you play him?

lamboguy
05-07-2014, 04:26 PM
This is not to take anything away from CC. But IMO, there is no comparison between Slew's and CA Chrome's Derby.

Slew got left at the start, was used hard being rush up into contention, bulled his way between horses to the lead, dueled with one of his main competitors in fast fractions, and won with something left.

Even though it wasn't a strong Derby field and the race was not particularly fast, very few 3yos I have seen would have won with that trip.you got that right, but who's to say that if CHROME got in trouble that he wouldn't have won too?

no doubt in my mind is that the 2014 Kentucky Derby was full of good race horses.

Rex Phinney
05-07-2014, 05:31 PM
I know you liked Chrome you posted that before the race, now you had commanding curve also? I didn't see where commanding curve even fit this group, what made you play him?

Mostly blind luck, a few years back in the Breeders Cup at Churchill I got my ass kicked by horses who hadn't shown great form elsewhere but had some success at Churchill. Ever since then I just try to find one or two to bet at a good price who have done well or at least run there.

This guy was in his 3rd off a layoff and if you watch his Louisiana Derby he dealt with all of it to get third. Flat got ran into at the break, made a great run around the final turn at which point the jockey dives him back inside :confused: where his momentum is totally killed, he gets run into again, and still gets rolling one more time to get third.

Just a total shot in the dark Show bet, one of those things where I had a few bucks left in the wagering account so why not.

goatchaser
05-07-2014, 05:52 PM
I was an idiot for not using him. Ran his first 2 races on Church dirt. Win and a close 2nd. Then runs decent 2 straight races coming from behind in grade 2 races. off of a layoff. I always look hard at horse that are running their 2nd or 3rd off a layoff. Dumb Dumb Dumb Decision by me to leave him out.

PaceAdvantage
05-08-2014, 02:11 AM
I didn't see where commanding curve even fit this group, what made you play him?He read my analysis on the front page where I said I'm using 'Curve underneath in my exactas...

Rex Phinney
05-08-2014, 04:25 PM
He read my analysis on the front page where I said I'm using 'Curve underneath in my exactas...

Good you had him too but no that's not why I chose him. I saw that he won a race at CD six months ago and decided he would be my "well maybe he just really likes this track" sleeper. Sure wish I would have put him into my trifecta bets.