Top 30 Three Year Olds

[Que]

Below are my top 30 three year olds...

1. LION HEART (5-3-2-0 $500,800) (1010-1033-1029-1031) (1024) Patrick L. Biancone 4/10/2004-Kee9 1 1/8m 2-1/2 Grd (1|750,000) Toyota Blue Grass S.
2. SMARTY JONES (6-6-0-0 $878,355) (1033-1019-1022-1030) (1032) John C. Servis 4/10/2004-OP9 1 1/8m 1-1 1/2 Grd (2|1,000,000) Arkansas Derby
3. MASTER DAVID (4-1-2-1 $256,840) (1012-1025-1025-1026) (1024) Robert J. Frankel 4/10/2004-Aqu8 1 1/8m 2-1/2 Grd (1|750,000) Wood Memorial S.
4. EDDINGTON (6-2-2-2 $149,560) (1012-1026-1030-1026) (1015) Mark A. Hennig 4/10/2004-Aqu8 1 1/8m 3-1/2 Grd (1|750,000) Wood Memorial S.
5. BORREGO (7-2-3-0 $399,580) (1017-1012-1016-1027) (1036) C. Beau Greely 4/10/2004-OP9 1 1/8m 2-1 1/2 Grd (2|1,000,000) Arkansas Derby
6. THE CLIFF`S EDGE (8-4-2-1 $835,258) (929-980-1011-1032) (1063) Nicholas P. Zito 4/10/2004-Kee9 1 1/8m 1-1/2 Grd (1|750,000) Toyota Blue Grass S.
7. TAPIT (4-3-0-0 $549,800) (941-997-1019-1027) (1037) Michael W. Dickinson 4/10/2004-Aqu8 1 1/8m 1-1/2 Grd (1|750,000) Wood Memorial S.
8. SWINGFORTHEFENCES (6-2-1-2 $120,970) (996-1014-1025-1024) (1017) Richard A. Violette 4/10/2004-Aqu8 1 1/8m 4-2 Grd (1|750,000) Wood Memorial S.
9. LIMEHOUSE (9-5-0-3 $575,435) (1011-1029-1023-1020) (1007) Todd A. Pletcher 4/10/2004-Kee9 1 1/8m 3-6 1/2 Grd (1|750,000) Toyota Blue Grass S.
10. POLLARD`S VISION (10-3-2-3 $445,811) (995-1005-1009-1019) (1028) Todd A. Pletcher 4/3/2004-Haw7 1 1/8m 1-2 3/4 Grd (2|500,000) Illinois Derby
11. PURGE (4-2-1-0 $117,400) (1037-1020-1022-1017) (994) Todd A. Pletcher 4/10/2004-OP9 1 1/8m 5-7 1/4 Grd (2|1,000,000) Arkansas Derby
12. HOUSE OF FORTUNE* (8-5-1-1 $391,094) (981-1001-1011-1022) (1036) Ronald L. McAnally 4/9/2004-OP10 1 1/16m 1-1 3/4 Grd (2|200,000) Fantasy S.
13. PRO PRADO (7-3-0-3 $213,784) (966-987-1003-1025) (1054) Robert E. Holthus 4/10/2004-OP9 1 1/8m 3-3 Grd (2|1,000,000) Arkansas Derby
14. MADCAP ESCAPADE* (4-4-0-0 $479,200) (988-1011-1027-1022) (1000) Frank L. Brothers 4/3/2004-Kee9 1 1/16m 1-1/2 Grd (1|500,000) Ashland S.
15. ASHADO* (8-5-2-1 $890,800) (981-1004-1022-1021) (1009) Todd A. Pletcher 4/3/2004-Kee9 1 1/16m 2-1/2 Grd (1|500,000) Ashland S.
16. HARVARD AVENUE (9-2-3-1 $144,706) (998-1004-1009-1019) (1024) Doug O'Neill 4/10/2004-OP9 1 1/8m 4-6 1/2 Grd (2|1,000,000) Arkansas Derby
17. ISLAND SAND* (6-3-2-0 $137,605) (1000-1008-1018-1018) (1007) J. Larry Jones 4/9/2004-OP10 1 1/16m 2-1 3/4 Grd (2|200,000) Fantasy S.
18. VALUE PLUS (7-2-2-0 $299,900) (1023-1035-1030-1013) (974) Todd A. Pletcher 4/10/2004-Aqu8 1 1/8m 6-8 1/4 Grd (1|750,000) Wood Memorial S.
19. ROYAL ASSAULT (4-1-1-1 $51,900) (982-1004-1015-1016) (1013) Nicholas P. Zito 4/10/2004-Aqu8 1 1/8m 5-6 1/4 Grd (1|750,000) Wood Memorial S.
20. READ THE FOOTNOTES (7-5-0-0 $450,660) (998-1011-1023-1005) (961) Richard A. Violette 3/13/2004-GP9 1 1/8m 4-4 Grd (1|1,000,000) Florida Derby
21. BRASS HAT (3-1-2-0 $69,920) (995-1014-1021-1016) (996) William Bradley 3/20/2004-TP7 1 1/16m 1-3 3/4 Stk (100,000) Rushaway S.
22. MUSTANFAR (7-2-1-0 $136,880) (994-1020-1020-1014) (992) Kiaran P. McLaughlin 4/10/2004-Kee9 1 1/8m 4-10 1/4 Grd (1|750,000) Toyota Blue Grass S.
23. PAY ATTENTION (7-3-0-1 $87,510) (984-997-1008-1015) (1022) Scott M. Schwartz 3/25/2004-Aqu8 1 1/8m 1-4 1/4 Alw (NW2X|46,000)
24. LAST SONG* (8-3-1-1 $238,330) (960-990-1015-1013) (1000) Carl A. Nafzger 4/3/2004-Kee9 1 1/16m 3-4 1/2 Grd (1|500,000) Ashland S.
25. DONT KNOCK AMERICA (8-1-5-0 $70,100) (996-985-988-1012) (1051) Scott M. Schwartz 4/2/2004-Aqu7 1 1/8m 2-2 3/4 Alw (NW1X|44,000)
26. MAMBO TRAIN (8-2-1-0 $117,400) (1021-1013-1016-1012) (990) Marcelo Polanco 4/10/2004-OP9 1 1/8m 6-10 1/2 Grd (2|1,000,000) Arkansas Derby
27. SONG OF THE SWORD (4-3-1-0 $178,600) (974-993-1006-1014) (1019) Jennifer Pedersen 4/3/2004-Haw7 1 1/8m 2-2 3/4 Grd (2|500,000) Illinois Derby
28. SUAVE (10-2-2-2 $121,175) (980-989-1004-1010) (1008) Paul J. McGee 4/3/2004-Haw7 1 1/8m 3-5 1/2 Grd (2|500,000) Illinois Derby
29. CRYPTOGRAPH (5-3-0-0 $55,300) (949-983-1000-1013) (1032) Donnie K. Von Hemel 3/20/2004-OP10 1 1/16m 4-10 3/4 Stk (200,000) Rebel S.
30. SILENT SIGHS* (5-4-1-0 $442,700) (991-1001-1005-1006) (997) Julio C. Canani 3/13/2004-SA8 1 1/16m 1-1 1/2 Grd (1|300,000) Santa Anita Oaks

Que.

[sam i am]

Ok Que

What are the numbers representing ?

Thanks
David

[Que]

David,

Numbers represent the horse's speed figure at 1/4m, 1/2m, 3/4m, and the finish in the horse's most recent race. The number in paranthesis is the horse's late speed figure--usually the last 1/4m.

r, Que.

[JPinMaryland]

Question re: the Money List.

I was looking at the graded states earnings for 3 year olds on Thoroughbred times and it differs from the list at bloodhorse.

I realize a few horses have moved up the list, but the TbTimes seems to have not included several horses that blood horse has, viz:

Tigerhunt ($165k)
Capitano ($115k)
Kilgowan ($110k)
Consecrate ($100k)
Song of the Sword ($100)

Dollars in paren. indicate the earnings that Bloodhorse attributed to the horse.

What's going on here? Not nominated for Derby? Not graded stakes earnings?

[JPinMaryland]

Never mind. Song of the Sword is on their list, the other four are apparently not in contention for the derby, either they were nominated or their connections have no intentions.

[TRM]

Que,

I noticed that Imperialism did not make your list. Care to share your figs on him?

Thanks,

TRM

[Que]

TRM... below are my pace/speed figures for Imperialism.

4/3/2004-SA8 1 1/8m (963-977-995-1001) (1001) 1003 3-2 Grd (1|750,000) chased, inside move,2wd into lane,rail bid, steadied 1/16
3/6/2004-SA7 1m (948-975-1000-1010) (1029) 1009 1-Neck Grd (2|200,000) unhurried early, inside, came out 2nd turn,5wd into lane,rallied
2/7/2004-SA3 7f (921-976-na-1009) (1041) 998 1-1 1/4 Grd (2|150,000) broke in bit, unhurried early, 4 wide into lane,rallied,lugged in
1/1/2004-Crc9 1 1/8m (924-968-984-989) (986) 990 5-5 3/4 Grd (3|100,000) rated off pace to outside,widest far turn,even finish outside
11/29/2003-Crc111 1/16m (963-1000-999-999) (1000) 987 2-1/2 Stk (100,000) slow start, rallied 4 wide far turn, bid deep stretch, edged
11/8/2003-Crc9 1 1/16m (994-998-994-995) (990) 987 1-2 Alw (NW1X|24,000) reserved early, rallied, slim lead leaving far turn, edged away

The bold number in black is the horse's relative speed rating--this number is adjusted based on the performance of the other entries in the race in their previous and subsequent races. (This number isn't used to generate the rankings sinces its somewhat time consuming to calculate.)

Que.

[Que]

A few adjustments following the Lexington.

1. LION HEART (5-3-2-0 $500,800) (1010-1033-1029-1031) (1024) Patrick L. Biancone 4/10/2004-Kee9 1 1/8m 2-1/2 Grd (1|750,000) Toyota Blue Grass S.
2. SMARTY JONES (6-6-0-0 $878,355) (1033-1019-1022-1030) (1032) John C. Servis 4/10/2004-OP9 1 1/8m 1-1 1/2 Grd (2|1,000,000) Arkansas Derby
3. MASTER DAVID (4-1-2-1 $256,840) (1011-1026-1025-1027) (1024) Robert J. Frankel 4/10/2004-Aqu8 1 1/8m 2-1/2 Grd (1|750,000) Wood Memorial S.
4. EDDINGTON (6-2-2-2 $149,560) (1011-1027-1030-1027) (1015) Mark A. Hennig 4/10/2004-Aqu8 1 1/8m 3-1/2 Grd (1|750,000) Wood Memorial S.
5. QUINTONS GOLD RUSH (5-2-1-0 $295,500) (1003-1011-1019-1028) (1035) Steven M. Asmussen 4/17/2004-Kee9 1 1/16m 1-2 3/4 Grd (2|325,000) Coolmore Lexington S.
6. BORREGO (7-2-3-0 $399,580) (1017-1012-1016-1027) (1036) C. Beau Greely 4/10/2004-OP9 1 1/8m 2-1 1/2 Grd (2|1,000,000) Arkansas Derby
7. THE CLIFF`S EDGE (8-4-2-1 $835,258) (929-980-1011-1032) (1063) Nicholas P. Zito 4/10/2004-Kee9 1 1/8m 1-1/2 Grd (1|750,000) Toyota Blue Grass S.
8. TAPIT (4-3-0-0 $549,800) (941-997-1020-1028) (1037) Michael W. Dickinson 4/10/2004-Aqu8 1 1/8m 1-1/2 Grd (1|750,000) Wood Memorial S.
9. SWINGFORTHEFENCES (6-2-1-2 $120,970) (996-1014-1025-1025) (1017) Richard A. Violette 4/10/2004-Aqu8 1 1/8m 4-2 Grd (1|750,000) Wood Memorial S.
10. LIMEHOUSE (9-5-0-3 $575,435) (1011-1029-1023-1020) (1007) Todd A. Pletcher 4/10/2004-Kee9 1 1/8m 3-6 1/2 Grd (1|750,000) Toyota Blue Grass S.
11. POLLARD`S VISION (10-3-2-3 $445,811) (995-1005-1009-1019) (1028) Todd A. Pletcher 4/3/2004-Haw7 1 1/8m 1-2 3/4 Grd (2|500,000) Illinois Derby
12. FIRE SLAM (6-3-2-0 $402,430) (991-1003-1011-1023) (1038) David M. Carroll 4/17/2004-Kee9 1 1/16m 2-2 3/4 Grd (2|325,000) Coolmore Lexington S.
13. PURGE (4-2-1-0 $117,400) (1037-1020-1022-1017) (994) Todd A. Pletcher 4/10/2004-OP9 1 1/8m 5-7 1/4 Grd (2|1,000,000) Arkansas Derby
14. HOUSE OF FORTUNE* (8-5-1-1 $391,094) (981-1001-1011-1022) (1036) Ronald L. McAnally 4/9/2004-OP10 1 1/16m 1-1 3/4 Grd (2|200,000) Fantasy S.
15. PRO PRADO (7-3-0-3 $213,784) (966-987-1003-1025) (1054) Robert E. Holthus 4/10/2004-OP9 1 1/8m 3-3 Grd (2|1,000,000) Arkansas Derby
16. SONG OF THE SWORD (5-3-1-1 $211,100) (971-996-1016-1022) (1024) Jennifer Pedersen 4/17/2004-Kee9 1 1/16m 3-3 Grd (2|325,000) Coolmore Lexington S.
17. MADCAP ESCAPADE* (4-4-0-0 $479,200) (988-1011-1026-1021) (998) Frank L. Brothers 4/3/2004-Kee9 1 1/16m 1-1/2 Grd (1|500,000) Ashland S.
18. HARVARD AVENUE (9-2-3-1 $144,706) (998-1004-1009-1019) (1024) Doug O'Neill 4/10/2004-OP9 1 1/8m 4-6 1/2 Grd (2|1,000,000) Arkansas Derby
19. RARE GIFT* (5-2-0-3 $78,080) (974-1002-1011-1019) (1024) John C. Kimmel 4/16/2004-Aqu8 1 1/8m 3-5 3/4 Alw (NW2X|46,000)
20. POMEROY (6-2-2-1 $144,250) (1001-1007-1017-1019) (1011) Patrick L. Biancone 4/17/2004-Kee9 1 1/16m 4-5 Grd (2|325,000) Coolmore Lexington S.
21. ASHADO* (8-5-2-1 $890,800) (981-1004-1021-1020) (1007) Todd A. Pletcher 4/3/2004-Kee9 1 1/16m 2-1/2 Grd (1|500,000) Ashland S.
22. ISLAND SAND* (6-3-2-0 $137,605) (1000-1008-1018-1018) (1007) J. Larry Jones 4/9/2004-OP10 1 1/16m 2-1 3/4 Grd (2|200,000) Fantasy S.
23. VALUE PLUS (7-2-2-0 $299,900) (1023-1035-1030-1014) (974) Todd A. Pletcher 4/10/2004-Aqu8 1 1/8m 6-8 1/4 Grd (1|750,000) Wood Memorial S.
24. ROYAL ASSAULT (4-1-1-1 $51,900) (982-1004-1016-1017) (1013) Nicholas P. Zito 4/10/2004-Aqu8 1 1/8m 5-6 1/4 Grd (1|750,000) Wood Memorial S.
25. READ THE FOOTNOTES (7-5-0-0 $450,660) (998-1011-1023-1005) (961) Richard A. Violette 3/13/2004-GP9 1 1/8m 4-4 Grd (1|1,000,000) Florida Derby
26. MINISTER ERIC (8-2-3-2 $437,971) (965-998-1021-1019) (1006) Richard E. Mandella 4/14/2004-Kee7 1 1/16m 1-4 1/4 Alw (NW1X|54,000)
27. MUSTANFAR (7-2-1-0 $136,880) (994-1020-1020-1014) (992) Kiaran P. McLaughlin 4/10/2004-Kee9 1 1/8m 4-10 1/4 Grd (1|750,000) Toyota Blue Grass S.
28. BRASS HAT (4-1-3-0 $92,140) (955-988-1010-1007) (989) William Bradley 4/15/2004-Kee8 1 1/8m 2-5 3/4 Stk (100,000) Forerunner S.
29. PAY ATTENTION (7-3-0-1 $87,510) (985-996-1007-1015) (1023) Scott M. Schwartz 3/25/2004-Aqu8 1 1/8m 1-4 1/4 Alw (NW2X|46,000)
30. LAST SONG* (8-3-1-1 $238,330) (960-990-1014-1012) (998) Carl A. Nafzger 4/3/2004-Kee9 1 1/16m 3-4 1/2 Grd (1|500,000) Ashland S.

Que.

[Que]

For comparsion purposes, here are my speed figures for the last five Derby winners:


Funny Cide
5/3/2003-CD10 1 1/4m (1036-1042-1044-1039) (1010) 1018 1-1 3/4 Grd (1|1,000,000) came out bump start,rated near inside,4-5w far turn, stiff drive
4/12/2003-Aqu8 1 1/8m (1017-1020-1026-1031) (1032) 1019 2-1/2 Grd (1|750,000) bumped after start, speed in hand, outside move, gamely on rail
3/9/2003-FG9 1 1/16m (1016-1020-1032-1021) (981) 1012 3-3 1/4 Grd (2|750,000) clear early, set pace, collared, dropped back, came again
1/18/2003-GP10 1 1/16m (990-1004-1008-1011) (1010) 998 5-6 3/4 Grd (3|100,000) hit gate, wide 1st turn, chased pace, 4 wide far turn, tired
10/19/2002-Bel5 1m (989-1003-1003-1017) (1049) 1000 1-Neck Stk (100,000) bumped start, bumped half mile pole, rail move, game, driving
9/29/2002-Bel8 7f (1008-1011-na-1022) (1028) 1014 1-9 Stk (75,000) speed inside in hand, drew away when asked, ridden out

War Emblem
5/4/2002-CD9 1 1/4m (1033-1036-1034-1042) (1050) 1025 1-4 Grd (1|1,000,000) gained lead early, raced 3w, drew off late, strong hand urging
4/6/2002-SPT8 1 1/8m (1020-1014-1013-1032) (1051) 1019 1-6 1/4 Grd (2|500,000) broke sharply, allowed to settle, set pace, inside, ridden out
3/17/2002-Spt8 1m (1032-1033-1033-1019) (982) 1013 1-10 3/4 Alw (45,000) set pace, inside, drew off, driving
2/17/2002-FG9 1 1/16m (1020-1020-1014-1001) (956) 1003 6-9 3/4 Grd (3|150,000) forward, ranged up three wide, faded
1/26/2002-FG9 1m (980-998-1009-1005) (977) 998 5-2 Stk (100,000) dueled rail, faltered final sixteenth
11/23/2001-FG8 1m (991-1002-1003-1000) (976) 989 1-4 1/2 Alw (NW1X|32,000) reserved three wide, took over, kept to task

Monarchos
5/5/2001-CD8 1 1/4m (963-1012-1043-1047) (1044) 1026 1-4 3/4 Grd (1|1,000,000) bmp start,forced in,4w early, 6w 2nd turn,took over,drove clear
4/14/2001-Aqu10 1 1/8m (986-1018-1028-1031) (1029) 1024 2-2 3/4 Grd (2|750,000) outrun early, inside run second turn, came wide, game finish
3/10/2001-GP11 1 1/8m (985-1005-1024-1030) (1034) 1015 1-4 1/2 Grd (1|1,000,000) unhurried early, strong six wide move, vigorous hand ride
2/3/2001-GP10 1 1/16m (980-994-1007-1028) (1067) 1009 1-4 3/4 Alw (NW1X|35,000) chased pace, took over 1/8 pole, drew away, driving
1/13/2001-GP8 7f (990-1003-na-1022) (1035) 996 1-6 Mdn (31,000) slipped through, inside, took over turn, drew away, driving
11/24/2000-CD7 6.5f (927-951-na-979) (1013) 984 3-5 1/2 Mdn (40,300) outrun for 1/2,angled 6w into stretch, no late threat

Fusaichi Pegasus
5/6/2000-CD8 1 1/4m (958-1025-1033-1038) (1033) 1025 1-1 1/2 Grd (1|1,000,000) broke inward, moved inside, angled 7wide 1/4 pole,hand urging
4/15/2000-Aqu9 1 1/8m (1007-1027-1027-1032) (1032) 1017 1-4 1/4 Grd (2|750,000) speed in hand, advanced outside, drew away, vigorous hand ride
3/19/2000-SA7 1 1/16m (1007-1026-1024-1026) (1024) 1021 1-3/4 Grd (2|250,000) broke alertly, stalked, challenged 1/4, led, held determinedly
2/19/2000-SA3 1 1/16m (1009-1027-1025-1028) (1022) 1007 1-3 1/2 Alw (NW1X|54,000) stalked pace,snug hold, bit off rail, bid 2 wide,clear,ridden out
1/2/2000-SA1 6f (986-993-na-1008) (1023) 1006 1-2 Mdn (45,000) stalked pace, off rail, bid 3 wide 1/4,led, drew off,hand ridden
12/11/1999-Hol6 6.5f (966-1003-na-1013) (1018) 1007 2-Neck Mdn (33,000) saved ground, inside bid turn, led, willingly, outgamed

Charismatic
5/1/1999-CD8 1 1/4m (995-1008-1020-1028) (1015) 1020 1-Neck Grd (1|1,000,000) wide, took over, driving
4/18/1999-Kee8 1 1/16m (967-998-1017-1037) (1072) 1020 1-2 1/2 Grd (2|325,000) striking distance, 3 wide run 7/16 pl, bid 1/8, drew clear, drvng
4/3/1999-SA5 1 1/8m (987-1004-1011-1017) (1018) 1018 4-8 1/4 Grd (1|750,000) settled, 3 wide, between horses 2nd turn, improved position
3/6/1999-BM7 1 1/16m (964-994-1012-1017) (1020) 1018 2-Head Stk (200,000) allowed to settle, saved ground both turns, angled out, rallied
2/19/1999-SA6 7f (961-1007-na-1021) (1029) 1025 2-5 Alw (NW1$X|50,000) unhurried, inside, angled out, 3 wide into lane, willingly late
2/11/1999-SA6 6.5f (970-1001-na-1006) (1006) 995 2-Neck Clm (62,500|47,000) settled, off rail, 6 wide into lane, bothered 1/8, rallied

Que.

[Que]

I spent all derby day flying from LAX to Bangkok so I didn't get to watch the Kentucky Derby, but congratulations to Smarty Jones on his derby victory. After looking at the charts of the Oaks and the Derby, I think the rankings held up fairly good this year, with the top two colts finishing in the top two spots in the Derby, and three of the top four fillies finishing in the top three spots in the Oaks--albeit not in the exact order. Also, Smarty Jones pre-derby numbers, i.e. final and late speed ratings, compared favorably with the previous five derby winners. Anyway, the goal next year will be to get the top four horses on top of the rankings and hope for another $41K plus superfecta :). Until next year....

Que.

[JPinMaryland]

Can you give us an insight into how you work these numbers? FOr one thing are they based on other "managed data" like Beyer numbers or do you start from scratch w/ raw numbers?

Also do you consider pace and trip in these numbers? Thanks.

Very interesting stuf by the way.

[Tom]

Que,
As alsways, an excellent job.
Thank you for sharing again.

[Que]

Tom,

Thanks. I wished I could have followed the preps closer this year, but I spent the better part of the last six weeks on the road.

JP,

Well here goes... the numbers are all generated from raw pace times, and trip factors and weight are not considered. To start, raw universal pace figures are generated by using simple pace functions. These numbers are then adjusted by the track's profile by calculating an average pace rating for each distance at each track, thereby normalizing the pace ratings for each track across the distance, i.e. 6f races at CD have much higher raw 1/4 numbers than other tracks. These numbers are then adjusted by an average distance rating which normalizes all the times by distance and surface at each track, for example it will typically downgrade the pace numbers in a 7f race and upgrade the numbers in a 1m race. These numbers are adjusted yet again by the track's variant (which is adjusted quarterly), for example routes at Santa Anita are adjusted downward while routes at the Fair Grounds are adjusted upward. If the race was run on the turf, then these pace numbers are adjusted by a turf-dirt adjustment factor, which varies by each track and distance. Finally, these numbers are then adjusted by a daily variant which is calculated using pace projections. I'm sure I confused everyone by now, but although the calculations are rather simple to calculate there are lots of interim steps and adjustments based on race pars, track pars, track/daily variants, etc. Late speed figures are calculated separately, but use the same adjustments as above. (I also calculate yet one more number which is what I call a comparative speed figure--this figure is based each horse's final speed rating, and is adjusted by how each of the entries in that race perform in subsequent races.) The rankings are then generated using a model of all three year old Grade 1 races ran at 9 furlongs or longer. Despite all these caculations and manipulations, I'm not convinced my numbers are better than anybody elses, but I think they do give me an edge.

regards, Que.

[cj]

The output format is different, but we do things very similiarly in calculation of numbers. Keep checking in Que, good job.

[Que]

CJ,

Thanks. I've also checked out your web page a few times--the layout and your speed figures are both very nice! I'd also be interested to know the steps you go through to generate your numbers. I know I've spent a lot of time coming up with my methodology, but like everything else I'm sure the process can still be improved upon.

Que.

[JPinMaryland]

Okay thanks for the explanation. I think I udnerstood about half of that.

How about a more visceral question: what sort of differences do you see between your figures and say Beyers or some other ones?

Based on your comments, I am tempted to say that you might find your figures are more accurate than Beyers when the pace is extremely fast or extremely slow. Just a guess, be interested in seeing what you feel the differences are between methods.

[Que]

JP,

I can't really answer that question since I never look at the Beyer numbers anymore. I'm not knocking the Beyer numbers, nor anybody elses figures--it just that I prefer to look at my own numbers. In the past, if I looked at a horse with my best figures and it didn't match the Beyers, I'd scale down my bets. After missing enough opportunities to catch some nice priced horses, I decided I was better off not even looking at other people's numbers. However, I do think my pace figures are pretty accurate. And although my final figures can be off at times (since I don't have the time to manually check all the variants and fractions), the best part about my figures is that I'm the only one who uses them.

Que.

[JPinMaryland]

okay; thx.