Let's talk Triple Crown chances for California Chrome

[Pensacola Pete]

(This is posted right after the Kentucky Derby race finished.)

Might as well start this right now.

Having seen the horse make a move at the start to get into position, go three-wide around the turn, and win relatively easily, how do you like the horse's chances to win the Triple Crown?

I give him a good chance.

It couldn't happen to a nicer jockey, either (Espinoza), in my opinion.

[Some_One]

Danza's trip reminded me a lot of Curlin's, just full of trouble and still kept on for 3rd. I can easily see him getting past CC in the Preakness.

[Mineshaft]

oh he has a great chance

[bks]

Odds are probably 7/2-4/1.

Best chance in awhile.

[Tom]

Polish up the Triple Crown Trophy - I saw a bunch of slugs behind him today.
The worst horse in the field blew by them all.
I don't have a good thing to say about any of them.

[TheEdge07]

Danza's trip reminded me a lot of Curlin's, just full of trouble and still kept on for 3rd. I can easily see him getting past CC in the Preakness.

The #9 crushed him...

[Stillriledup]

(This is posted right after the Kentucky Derby race finished.)

Might as well start this right now.

Having seen the horse make a move at the start to get into position, go three-wide around the turn, and win relatively easily, how do you like the horse's chances to win the Triple Crown?

I give him a good chance.

It couldn't happen to a nicer jockey, either (Espinoza), in my opinion.

He was tiring at the wire, can he finish a mile and a half in the 3rd leg? That's going to be the acid test.

If him winning the TC is good for racing, i'll root for him.

[pandy]

Based on this race, I would doubt it. But I'm happy for the connections.

[jk3521]

I wish "The Dumb Ass Guys" a lot of luck. Racing needs a Triple Crown winner to wash the bad taste of Asmussen out ! :D

[Clocker]

CC ran a strong race, but he also had a near perfect trip and the time was average. It will be interesting to see the trip reports on the better horses that didn't do well. It could be a totally different story in the Preakness with maybe half that field size.

[wiffleball whizz]

1/2 in Preakness and 1/5 in Belmont

[SecretAgentMan]

This horse bucked a lot of strong trends & angles & I told my cousin if he wins, he has a chance to win it all but we all know how hard it can be........but Art Sherman can get him there I believe.

[wiffleball whizz]

I think CC won the last ever race on the Hollywood main track.........can Vic verify this?

[tanner12oz]

He was tiring at the wire, can he finish a mile and a half in the 3rd leg? That's going to be the acid test.

If him winning the TC is good for racing, i'll root for him.

no that was the jockey celebrating because nobody was even close to him

[Rex Phinney]

I think the horse will do well at pimlico that track sets up perfect for his style.

The belmont? Well let's not say, one step at a time here

[Greyfox]

He was tiring at the wire, can he finish a mile and a half in the 3rd leg? That's going to be the acid test.

If him winning the TC is good for racing, i'll root for him.



That's how I saw it too. He seemed to be shortening stride.
The Belmont will test him.

[Pensacola Pete]

I think CC won the last ever race on the Hollywood main track.........can Vic verify this?

I'm not Vic, but I can verify that you're correct. The next and final race was won by Woodman's Luck on the grass.

[bks]

I think CC won the last ever race on the Hollywood main track.........can Vic verify this?

He won the penultimate race. Vic made that strange but cool call on the last race. was it not on the main track?

[SecretAgentMan]

Pimlico track is set up for horses that run like Chrome. I hope he doesn't win by 9.5 like Funny Cide did & leaves something in the tank......then again, this horse may be a freak.

[bks]

thx. Last race was on grass.

[nearco]

That's how I saw it too. He seemed to be shortening stride.
The Belmont will test him.

He was geared down. he was barely blowing in the post race interview.
The Belmont will test him if they throw some speed at him. But if he gets it all his own way like today then there's no reason he won't get 12f.

[Mad Scientist]

First off congrats to everyone that made some money today, and here's hoping that those that lost money today can get it back in the Preakness.

I had a mixed bag today. I made a little money today but if I would have stuck to my original bet I would have won huge.

[Greyfox]

He was geared down. he was barely blowing in the post race interview.
The Belmont will test him if they throw some speed at him. But if he gets it all his own way like today then there's no reason he won't get 12f.

Maybe.
A pedestrian time of 2:03 and change makes one wonder about the quality of this field.

[wiffleball whizz]

I'm having trouble pulling up the link for the "orb edition of this thread"

Can we say we like CC chance better then orb??

[SecretAgentMan]

Maybe.
A pedestrian time of 2:03 and change makes one wonder about the quality of this field.


I sad it last week that this field was very weak. Chrome just stands out too much. Will he win the next 2 races, YES in the Preakness & I DONT KNOW in the Belmont but if theres a trainer that can do it, maybe Sherman is the guy.

[bks]

He didn't finish authoritatively. Victor did stand up on him before the wire, and he looked back before that. But he doesn't look like 1 1/4 is his best distance, that's for sure.

[lamboguy]

i thought this was a good field of 3 year olds. CALIFORNIA CHROME turned out to be more than a freak, he's an ultra-freak. if i had any of these 3 year olds that are waiting in the wings, i would wait even longer now. this was nothing short of a spectacular performance that could even get better next time out....congratulations to those that had faith in this horse today and cashed the ticket.

[rastajenk]

Probably not the best distance of any of these.

He can win the Preakness the same way, in a smaller field, with a killer move coming out of the turn and daring the late runners to make up 5-10 lengths on him while he's cruising.

The Belmont will depend on the quality of who's left. Might be some that can run long, however slowly, if Chrome can't, especially if they're not beat from the trail so far. Or maybe the field is thinned to the point that he can win the race to the 9f mark in the Belmont and simply last to the end.

[Mad Scientist]

Victor had put away the whip in deep stretch and he was just letting him gallop home. Like you said he was standing up and taking a victory pose before the wire. Actually at no point was he really getting into chrome. He tapped him a few times to get him going but that was it.

Commanding Curve on the other hand was all out at the end so that might have given the illusion that chrome was tiring but I don't think he was at all.

I said a few days ago that since chrome started this winning streak that he has not gotten out of 2nd gear yet. While they might have hit 3rd gear with him today but we still have not seen anywhere near what this horse can do if they really ask him to run.

I know it's early but I have 4 horses on my radar for the Preakness.

1. California Chrome - no explanation needed

2. Commanding Curve. - He was clearly 2nd best so you have to give him a look for the Preakness in at least the exotics and he does seem to be a rapidly improving horse.

3. Untappable - If they run her you have got to at least take a look at how she matches up.

4. Kid Cruz - This horse is rapidly improving and appears set for best effort in Preakness. Last two wins were ultra impressive and the horse loves pimlico. If chrome was not in the picture than I would be all in on this horse in the win pools.

[wiffleball whizz]

Victor had put away the whip in deep stretch and he was just letting him gallop home. Like you said he was standing up and taking a victory pose before the wire. Actually at no point was he really getting into chrome. He tapped him a few times to get him going but that was it.

Commanding Curve on the other hand was all out at the end so that might have given the illusion that chrome was tiring but I don't think he was at all.

I said a few days ago that since chrome started this winning streak that he has not gotten out of 2nd gear yet. While they might have hit 3rd gear with him today but we still have not seen anywhere near what this horse can do if they really ask him to run.

I know it's early but I have 4 horses on my radar for the Preakness.



1. California Chrome - no explanation needed

2. Commanding Curve. - He was clearly 2nd best so you have to give him a look for the Preakness in at least the exotics and he does seem to be a rapidly improving horse.

3. Untappable - If they run her you have got to at least take a look at how she matches up.

4. Kid Cruz - This horse is rapidly improving and appears set for best effort in Preakness. Last two wins were ultra impressive and the horse loves pimlico. If chrome was not in the picture than I would be all in on this horse in the win pools.


I agree on kid Cruz.....was down on the rail for the tesio and he was sharp

[uncbossfan]

All I want to say is... If he wins the triple crown please don't diminish the quality of competition.

I am probably younger than most here at 31 and please don't anybody say, "back in the day no way he wins (race xyz)".

Chrome is fantastic and is well deserving if he pulls it off. I am pulling for him!!

[BettinBilly]

As a true fan of the sport, yes, I hope Chrome captures the next two Jewels and wins the Crown. It's not going to be easy, but it is certainly possible.

I did bet Chrome to Win in the Derby, but also had Wicked Strong, whom just could not get past 4th after having to chase from Outside Post. So now it's Chrome. Here's to him.

[JustRalph]

I think he's a decent horse. But I didn't see much at all behind him. I thought somebody might be an improving late runner, but none materialized.

The final time was a little slow too.

I gotta hand it to Espinoza though. He knew how to ride him. He also remembered all those great finish line shots with War Emblem. He posed big time :lol:

[BlueShoe]

Let me put it this way; liked him a lot better going into the race than I did after it was over, there are a few concerns. The soft early pace, the so so final time, and that 26.21 final quarter have some of us thinking. He was on top by 5 at the stretch call and won by 1 3/4, ie, they were coming on and getting to him, not convinced that he was being eased up late. A nearly impossible longshot was flying late, and both of the colts regarded as his major threats had considerable trouble before closing late for 3rd and 4th.

Can CC cope with a swifter early pace should it occur in the Preakness? What about the gruelling mile and a half of the Belmont? If he lost groung in the stretch of the Derby in a slow final quarter will they go by him late in New York?

For the sake of racing, and for California prestige :), would certainly like to see this newest Star go on and win the Triple Crown. However, 1978 was a long time ago, and some really good colts since Affirmed have not been able to pull it off. As a hard nosed handicapper, just am not very convinced that California Chrome is going to be the next one to do it.

[Chris Longshot]

Polish up the Triple Crown Trophy - I saw a bunch of slugs behind him today.
The worst horse in the field blew by them all.
I don't have a good thing to say about any of them.

Slugs just about sums it up...Awful Derby field...:ThmbDown:

[nijinski]

The real question is , How will Sherman hold up ? LOL.
Poor guy looked so overwhelmed today but I'm super thrilled for him .

When I CC today , I thought he lost a little weight . I also thought he was a little run down behind in a photo . Non of this mattered , he still got the job done .
We have two more races going forward in a short span of time so we have to hope he's not body sore after today .
I think we have to wait and watch as we have seen our share of TC contenders get beat by a fresh horse at Belmont .

Would love to see a TC winner again but the reality is that it's just too tough
to get it done .
It's also a testimony to the class and stamina of those champions that
managed to do it , they were unique !

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm glad CC has a good foundation of races under his belt. That will only help his chances going forward.

Of course, if this horse were trained by D. Wayne Lukas, some on this board would already be calling the authorities charging DWL with animal abuse after so many starts... :lol: :lol: :lol:

But since he's not trained by DWL, we won't hear any of that silly talk...thankfully...

[Robert Fischer]

I bet against California Chrome, but I would love to see him win the triple crown.

[Stillriledup]

I'm glad CC has a good foundation of races under his belt. That will only help his chances going forward.

Of course, if this horse were trained by any trainer who recklessly enters horses on a whim so his owners can get tables in dining rooms on big days, some on this board would already be calling the authorities charging any trainer who did that with animal abuse after so many starts... :lol: :lol: :lol:

But since he's not trained by such a trainer, we won't hear any of that silly talk...thankfully...

Ftfy. :D

[clocker7]

Let me put it this way; liked him a lot better going into the race than I did after it was over, there are a few concerns. The soft early pace, the so so final time, and that 26.21 final quarter have some of us thinking. He was on top by 5 at the stretch call and won by 1 3/4, ie, they were coming on and getting to him, not convinced that he was being eased up late. A nearly impossible longshot was flying late, and both of the colts regarded as his major threats had considerable trouble before closing late for 3rd and 4th.

Can CC cope with a swifter early pace should it occur in the Preakness? What about the gruelling mile and a half of the Belmont? If he lost groung in the stretch of the Derby in a slow final quarter will they go by him late in New York?

For the sake of racing, and for California prestige :), would certainly like to see this newest Star go on and win the Triple Crown. However, 1978 was a long time ago, and some really good colts since Affirmed have not been able to pull it off. As a hard nosed handicapper, just am not very convinced that California Chrome is going to be the next one to do it.
This post captures much of how I feel, with the exception that I was leaning that way before the running. I figured that his speed would beat this lot, and that his running style--combined with his experience, coolness, Affirmed-like crowd-friendliness, and other intangibles--would make him stand out. But I still think that his best distance is somewhat less than 10f. It will be interesting to see if he has the fortitude that Affirmed had in the trenches when another stud is looking him in the eyeball when he is the most tired.

[fmolf]

I hope to see some of the speed horses set a faster pace in the preakness.The pace in the derby was a joke!Played right into chromes hands.The race was practically given to him.Seemed like all the speed horses were wrangled back and tried to make one run at the end.We all know that it is very hard to change a horses running style.Seein Rosie on the rail pulling back hard on vicars reigns took him out of the race.I will be looking for value elsewhere in the preakness chrome looks to be about a 7/5 favorite to me!

[breezing]

But since he's not trained by DWL, we won't hear any of that silly talk...thankfully...

sadly enough, DWL did end derby day with the breakdown/euthanasia of canadian winner in the 13th.

[pandy]

Every time a horse wins the Derby fairly easily you hear this Triple Crown hype by both fans and the media. But, it's unlikely that this horse will be a Triple Crown winner. First of all, the odds are certainly stacked against him, since it hasn't been done since 1978.

But, let's put this in perspective. I've seen three T-Crown winners, Affirmed, Seattle Slew, and Secretariat. Let's suppose that any of these three were in the race yesterday, instead of C. Chrome, and had the same dream stalking trip in the clear right off a modest pace. How many lengths would they win by? Secretariat would have drawn off and won by at least 10 lengths, probably more. Seattle Slew would have also won by a wide margin. Affirmed would have been won under wraps, drawing away. These horses were special. Horses like that don't come along that often. With Seattle Slew and Secretariat, we didn't just think they might win the Triple Crown, we knew they'd win it, because they won the Derby in such sensational fashion.

I wish California Chrome well, but, I just don't think he is in the class of a typical Triple Crown winner. When he opened up his 5 length lead yesterday, he looked good, but, he did not pull away, he only won by 1 3/4 lengths after a dream trip. A great horse would have pulled away from them.

Add to that, several horses were comprised by rough trips or bad rides. Joe Bravo clearly pulled Danza directly into Medal Count, costing that one a better finish. Danza should have been dq'd.

I know people will say that it's a weak crop and California Chrome can win the Triple Crown as being much the best of a weak crop, but history shows that it doesn't work that way. Triple Crown winners are dominant horses. Affirmed is the only Triple Crown winner I've seen that didn't dominate, but he had to race against a great horse (Alydar).

[burnsy]

I'll be rooting for him. It would be great. The derby pace was moderate and I was wrong about that horse anyway. Cashed a couple tickets but basically paid good money to eat crow yesterday. He's really good. Ran a real good trip and dominated again. Congrats to the believers. I had to pay to see it.

[Bill Cullen]

Danza, Wicked Strong and Dance With Fate all had some excuses and finished in the top third of the field. I don't think Danza and Wicked Strong will offer much value in the Preakness but Dance With Fate finishing sixth might. The excuses take nothing away from Cali Chrome's excellent victory: perfectly ridden, perfectly placed and went into after burner at just the right time. Espinoza gave him a great ride!

By the way, if Peter Eurton is still the trainer of Dance With Fate going into the Preakness, then to me that's a tipoff that the trainer had the owner's permission to speak publically about their difference of opinion. it didn't build the odds any, though.

It's interesting to note that two N.Y. Daily News handicappers and one from the N.Y. Post picked Dance With Fate as their top choices in the Ken Derby.

I hope the Chrome goes all the way and takes the crown!

Best,

Bill C

[bks]

I hope to see some of the speed horses set a faster pace in the preakness.The pace in the derby was a joke!Played right into chromes hands.The race was practically given to him.Seemed like all the speed horses were wrangled back and tried to make one run at the end.We all know that it is very hard to change a horses running style.Seein Rosie on the rail pulling back hard on vicars reigns took him out of the race.I will be looking for value elsewhere in the preakness chrome looks to be about a 7/5 favorite to me!

1. A faster pace will not hurt him, IMO. We've seen him press much faster paces and still draw off (in shorter races, admittedly). Look at what happened to the others involved in that "slow" pace (Uncle Sigh, Chitu, even Samraat) . Nowhere to be found.

2. Unfortunately, even if Bayern, Kid Cruz, Social Inclusion, Danza, Wicked Strong and Commanding Curve all enter the Preakness, I highly doubt CC will be above even money. At 7/5, it's be a very favorable betting situation given the shorter distance and lack of credentials of his opponents.

[horses4courses]

Eating up, and reportedly "as right as rain".

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bmy3oxDIMAAcLaX.jpg

[SecretAgentMan]

Eating up, and reportedly "as right as rain".

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bmy3oxDIMAAcLaX.jpg


I love hearing good news like this......he will be ready to pop another big one in 2 weeks.

As far as betting goes, 7-5 is great odds on him in a smaller field & shorter distance. If he sins this, he will be 2-5 at Belmont. Anyone wanting to bet him in NY, bet him yo place, they usually pay more to place than win when s horse is going for the crown.

[horses4courses]

I love hearing good news like this......he will be ready to pop another big one in 2 weeks.

As far as betting goes, 7-5 is great odds on him in a smaller field & shorter distance. If he sins this, he will be 2-5 at Belmont. Anyone wanting to bet him in NY, bet him yo place, they usually pay more to place than win when s horse is going for the crown.

He is highly unlikely to be better than even money at Pimlico.
Depends on who shows up, but 1-2 odds are a possibility.

[BettinBilly]

Agreed.

I took advantage of TVG's 4/1 guarantee yesterday on Chrome. Yes, only $25 limit, but at those odds, I jumped. Hope they do it again at Pimlico.

Thanks for posting that Photo, Horses4. Nice. He looks "Right as rain, Batman!" ;)

[nijinski]

I look back at the TCwinners of the 70's . Affirmed had a big two year old campaign , he was an iron horse . Still they all get mentally and physically
fatigued . Secretariat , Affirmed and Seattle Slew , between their two and three year old season had four to almost five month turn out and then
freshening between two year old and three year old campaigns .
Things are very different now . A lot due to economics .

So the question is , can he be that different ? For the sport and the fans it
would be fantastic . Personally , I think the Belmont being that close will
be the difficult and he could fall short in that race . They all have that day
they just didn't have it in them and CC is not a horse who hasn't lost before .

Hopefully he will let the connections know .

[lamboguy]

i highly doubt if Asmussen runs his filly back in 2 weeks. she is to wound up and i would say she needs more than 2 weeks. if anytime she might face boys, it would be in the Haskell.

[nijinski]

i highly doubt if Asmussen runs his filly back in 2 weeks. she is to wound up and i would say she needs more than 2 weeks. if anytime she might face boys, it would be in the Haskell.

He already said she is a np go .

[SecretAgentMan]

He is highly unlikely to be better tha7-5 ven money at Pimlico.
Depends on who shows up, but 1-2 odds are a possibility.


Oh, I agree.......someone above some where said he might be 7-5 & is looking else where for value. I don't see any value in throwing away tickets, only in cashing tickets.

I think he will be like Smarty Jones 3-5......Smarty paid $3.40 to win, $3.00 to place & $2.60 to show.

It may also be a good idea to bet him to place since the pool will be so big.

[SecretAgentMan]

Agreed.

I took advantage of TVG's 4/1 guarantee yesterday on Chrome. Yes, only $25 limit, but at those odds, I jumped. Hope they do it again at Pimlico.

Thanks for posting that Photo, Horses4. Nice. He looks "Right as rain, Batman!" ;)


Tvg might do it in the Belmont Stakes if Chrome is going for the Crown but they probably will give even money.

[Smarty Cide]

yeah i just dont see how to bet him.... him and all maybe? might not even get your money back

[clocker7]

Oh, I agree.......someone above some where said he might be 7-5 & is looking else where for value. I don't see any value in throwing away tickets, only in cashing tickets.

I think he will be like Smarty Jones 3-5......Smarty paid $3.40 to win, $3.00 to place & $2.60 to show.

It may also be a good idea to bet him to place since the pool will be so big.
NEVER, EVER bet place or show without actually seeing the totals and being able to calculate a potential payout; even to the point of anticipating the also rans. That type of betting has been a personal forte for decades; it presents opportunities, but mostly passes. Nothing about it should be locked in beforehand.

[horses4courses]

I love hearing good news like this......he will be ready to pop another big one in 2 weeks.

As far as betting goes, 7-5 is great odds on him in a smaller field & shorter distance. If he sins this, he will be 2-5 at Belmont. Anyone wanting to bet him in NY, bet him yo place, they usually pay more to place than win when s horse is going for the crown.

http://www.brisnet.com/pictures/californiachrome5-4.jpg

California Chrome relaxes as Art Sherman checks over his Derby winner Sunday morning (courtesy KY Derby Twitte

[Cratos]

CC ran a strong race, but he also had a near perfect trip and the time was average. It will be interesting to see the trip reports on the better horses that didn't do well. It could be a totally different story in the Preakness with maybe half that field size.

The time was "average"? CC final Derby time wasn't anywhere near the average Derby time for the last 66 years.

The average Derby time beginning with Citation's victory in 1948 is 2:02.13 seconds. CC's final time of 2:03.66 put him about 9 lengths behind the average Derby winner.

[horses4courses]

The time was "average"? CC final Derby time wasn't anywhere near the average Derby time for the last 66 years.

The average Derby time beginning with Citation's victory in 1948 is 2:02.13 seconds. CC's final time of 2:03.66 put him about 9 lengths behind the average Derby winner.

Which will mean absolutely nothing during the course of history.

[Cratos]

Which will mean absolutely nothing during the course of history.
You must not understand history. History is the record and its significance is our understanding of what has happened and what can happen.

[SecretAgentMan]

yeah i just dont see how to bet him.... him and all maybe? might not even get your money back


If you bet Chrome with all in the Preakness you better hope a long shot rolls in 2nd.......the derby exacta was a beautiful return on investment. $20 exacta returned $3,400.........that's a beautiful thing.

The past Preakness plays I thought were the strongest were Real Quiet/Victory Gallop exacta, Rachel Alexandera/Mine Bird & I'll Have Another/Bodemeister exacta. They just seemed so cold.

I haven't seen the probable past performances but with a weak field like this, gonna be interesting.

Only solid play I see is unloading on Chrome to win. Even 3-5 is better than tearing up tickets looking for value trying to beat a horse that wont be beat in Baltimore.

In the Belmont, if you think he might lose, box him with Danza & Wicked Strong.........

[PaceAdvantage]

Which will mean absolutely nothing during the course of history.Yeah, because nobody ever talks of Secretariat's final time in the Belmont. Time means squat.... :rolleyes:

[mostpost]

Yeah, because nobody ever talks of Secretariat's final time in the Belmont. Time means squat.... :rolleyes:
Horses4courses is right and you are...........rignt. Because time is important, but in the long run California Chrome's time in the Kentucky Derby is not that significant. The story of California Chrome is what he has done thus far and what he will do moving forward. Will he win the Preakness? Can he win the Belmont Stakes and the Triple Crown? Can he beat older horses in the fall and secure Horse of the Year honors?

If the times of California Chrome's races continues to be below par, then the Derby time will be of significance. I think it will be shown to be non-representative.

[Vinnie]

I believe that the finishing time of the Derby was affected significantly by the wind and the fact that the horses had to run in to it twice through two separate portions of the race. This appears to be evident due to the Beyers that both CC and Wise Dan ran in their respective races. Everyone has seen what types of times both Wise Dan and Cali Chrome are capable of running and Chrome has shown it in races just prior in both the San Felipe and SA Derby. I really hope that Social Inclusion and Bayern run in this years Preakness Stakes. It will give CC a target and neither one of those horses are fast enough for as long as CC is when he kicks in those excellent after burners of his. Can't wait for the Preakness. :)