cordep17
05-03-2014, 03:46 PM
:1: Vicar's In Trouble
Napravnik has been on this one all the way.
Weakened in the Risen Star, where he wasn't with the leaders the way he usually is. Went 1 1/8 and haddled it very well, going fairly fast in the early stages and finishing relatively strong in the LA Derby, meeting the Derby par. He didn't need to be extremely urged to win the LA by 3, so I think this one is ready to give his best if he gets the right circumstances. Has pretty much only run at the Fairgrounds, but he has a great workout pattern, one almost identical to the one he had going into the Louisiana Derby, with two of those works being at Churchill. My main fault with this one is that this is the first time he has been on an inside post. With a lot of horses trying to get a good, forward position, he'll have to become acquainted with the rail.
:2: Harry's Holiday
Put into a prolonged drive in the Spiral, he wasn't able to come back in the Blue grass at all. Has raced a lot this year, so he isn't much of a candidate to make serious strides from his last race to this race. He too is a horse that looks to be near the lead. For this one to have a shot at all, will need to get a clean and fast break, which could cause problems for the 1, or at least cause him to work extra hard for positioning. He is one of the few with races at CD, but he didn't show any sort of special ability on the track in his previous 2 go arounds. In general, his success hasn't been with the conventional dirt
:3: Uncle Sigh
Has never left Aqueduct, and has one work at CD. All through his past workouts, he has been a bullet type guy, so having the slowest of 20 on Apr. 30th kind of bugs me, but the pattern is good enough for me to dismiss it mostly. Being already well qualified for the derby, I see the Wood as a good test run for today. He ran 4 wide all around the track and could have, imo, finished stronger. All 3 from the rail will be gunning it early.
:4: Danza
Picked him in the Arkansas, and am leaning towards him again. 2nd off the layoff ran 1 1/8, 2 Furlongs longer than he had ever previously, and won going away. With the three inside of him gunning it from the start, He'll be able to pick up a good rail trip with the opportunity to replicate his Arkansas performance. He left gas in the tank, is a lightly raced 3 yo still learning the ropes, and still has the potential to grow leaps and bounds in today's race.
:5: California Chrome
Love the DAP story. Has the most race experience of all the runners, and hasn't shown any fatigue building. Of the horses who'll be challenging for the lead during the first 8/10ths of the race, Chrome probably has the best shot at sticking it out to the wire. I question the choice not to ship right away. surely the trainer knows better than me, but why not ship? Even though it is only a small sampling size of 16 races, he has only won 6% of races with horses shipping in. Maybe he hasn't developed a good strategy for such occassions. It took them a while to figure out he wants the lead, so he for sure will be going to the front.
:6: Samraat
Bris Figs say he has run a 99 in all of last 4 races. Even in first race, was close to being in the 90s. Had to move around a little bit in the stretch in the Wood becuase he was put a little off the pace. He doesn't seem like a big kick kind of horse to me, so I expect them to have him close to the lead again today. With three races in the books so far this year with not a whole lot of improvement on paper, I question if he is capable of stepping up to the challenge of all of these front runners going 1 1/4.
:7: We Miss Artie
Lacks success. Connections don't seem sure where he belongs and are bouncing him all over the place. The speed figures aren't there, but the midpack running style helps this one's chances. Really put everything he had into the spiral, but hasn't been able to put that kind of effort into any of his races on dirt.
:8: General a Rod
Was able to come from off of the pace in his maiden race to win, so is versatile. May surprise some a bit when he isn't super close to the front runners. Has a race at CD where he ran alright. Seems like a grinder to me who may benefit with the added distance, but lacks a finishing kick
:9: Vinceremos
Showed nothing in the Bluegrass. May possibly be attributed to the all weather track. Has seemed like a horse that gives it his all in all of his races, so the Bluegrass is a ?. his ability to stalk and come and come again when asked is impressive. Seems like the kind of under-the-radar horse who sneaks into the exotics.
:10: Wildcat Red
Has never raced away from Gulfstream, which I find to be a speed favoring track, which suits him. In his only work at CD, he was the second slowest. He has held consistent form for all 7 races, which works for and against him. His best is probably right in line with how he has performed thus far. His sire wasn't a distance horse, so I don't think he'll improve with the extra bit of distance.
:12: Dance With Fate
Can mold into whatever the race he is in demands. Will probably be running in the back half of the race. Nothin seems to bother him. It bugs me he wasn't able to finish in either the frontrunner of the BCJuv at 2 at SA. That move in the Bluegrass was great, and he did after not running for 2 months. I think he could be sharpening up at the right time to make a big impact in this one. The Bluegrass is getting less respect now than in a while. Could be the yearthat swings back for a big return.
:13: Chitu
Took an easier route to the derby which gives us good odds on this one. He has put the competition away in 3 of 4 races. He has dealth with varying paces, and has raced successfully at 3 different tracks. Has a great shipper trainer and has been working arguably the best of all the entries at CD. Hasn't ever layed off the pace. What works for this one is the front, and he has to go for it.
:14: Medal Count
Romans has been high on this horse, and I think he could be sitting on a big race as well. He has definitely struggled a lot throughout his past performances, but he has some pretty good performances to back them up. Swinging very wide finishing a close 2nd in the bluegrass, I thought he looked more gamely than he has before. If he is sitting on a good one like I think he is, he has one of the best chances to win.
:15: Tapiture
Has two really good races at CD on his resume. Had the points needed for the derby already before last. had a different rider in last. Can sit maybe 5 lengths off the leaders and inherit the lead. some of his lines could be confused with Chrome's. Last was the only race he really didn't finish strong. Could very well be able to regroup
:16: Intense Holiday
Has improved a lot in his last 3 and could still be on the improve. His Risen star performance was steller, and he had to get closer to the :1: in the LA derby so as to not let him get away. That won't be his job today, and will lay well off the pace. An improving horse who is agile enough to avoid traffic trouble. Could be there as well.
:17: Commanding Curve
I haven't see the same finishing power in this one that I see in some others, but ran his best figure in last out and showed the ability to deal with traffic in last. Could be another Golden Soul.
:18: Candy Boy
Good horse. Stevens knows what he is doing with him, but I don't think he will be good enough
:19: Ride on Curlin
far back Exotics. Consistent. Know where he stands. Shouldn't be too close to the pace, but could get caught outside or a little far back.
:20: Wicked Strong
I think he's a bit too picky with how he runs. Far outside helps him though. Has always had the outside posts. On the improve and has a good grasp of running style. I like the 3f tuning work. I think this horse is peaking.
Napravnik has been on this one all the way.
Weakened in the Risen Star, where he wasn't with the leaders the way he usually is. Went 1 1/8 and haddled it very well, going fairly fast in the early stages and finishing relatively strong in the LA Derby, meeting the Derby par. He didn't need to be extremely urged to win the LA by 3, so I think this one is ready to give his best if he gets the right circumstances. Has pretty much only run at the Fairgrounds, but he has a great workout pattern, one almost identical to the one he had going into the Louisiana Derby, with two of those works being at Churchill. My main fault with this one is that this is the first time he has been on an inside post. With a lot of horses trying to get a good, forward position, he'll have to become acquainted with the rail.
:2: Harry's Holiday
Put into a prolonged drive in the Spiral, he wasn't able to come back in the Blue grass at all. Has raced a lot this year, so he isn't much of a candidate to make serious strides from his last race to this race. He too is a horse that looks to be near the lead. For this one to have a shot at all, will need to get a clean and fast break, which could cause problems for the 1, or at least cause him to work extra hard for positioning. He is one of the few with races at CD, but he didn't show any sort of special ability on the track in his previous 2 go arounds. In general, his success hasn't been with the conventional dirt
:3: Uncle Sigh
Has never left Aqueduct, and has one work at CD. All through his past workouts, he has been a bullet type guy, so having the slowest of 20 on Apr. 30th kind of bugs me, but the pattern is good enough for me to dismiss it mostly. Being already well qualified for the derby, I see the Wood as a good test run for today. He ran 4 wide all around the track and could have, imo, finished stronger. All 3 from the rail will be gunning it early.
:4: Danza
Picked him in the Arkansas, and am leaning towards him again. 2nd off the layoff ran 1 1/8, 2 Furlongs longer than he had ever previously, and won going away. With the three inside of him gunning it from the start, He'll be able to pick up a good rail trip with the opportunity to replicate his Arkansas performance. He left gas in the tank, is a lightly raced 3 yo still learning the ropes, and still has the potential to grow leaps and bounds in today's race.
:5: California Chrome
Love the DAP story. Has the most race experience of all the runners, and hasn't shown any fatigue building. Of the horses who'll be challenging for the lead during the first 8/10ths of the race, Chrome probably has the best shot at sticking it out to the wire. I question the choice not to ship right away. surely the trainer knows better than me, but why not ship? Even though it is only a small sampling size of 16 races, he has only won 6% of races with horses shipping in. Maybe he hasn't developed a good strategy for such occassions. It took them a while to figure out he wants the lead, so he for sure will be going to the front.
:6: Samraat
Bris Figs say he has run a 99 in all of last 4 races. Even in first race, was close to being in the 90s. Had to move around a little bit in the stretch in the Wood becuase he was put a little off the pace. He doesn't seem like a big kick kind of horse to me, so I expect them to have him close to the lead again today. With three races in the books so far this year with not a whole lot of improvement on paper, I question if he is capable of stepping up to the challenge of all of these front runners going 1 1/4.
:7: We Miss Artie
Lacks success. Connections don't seem sure where he belongs and are bouncing him all over the place. The speed figures aren't there, but the midpack running style helps this one's chances. Really put everything he had into the spiral, but hasn't been able to put that kind of effort into any of his races on dirt.
:8: General a Rod
Was able to come from off of the pace in his maiden race to win, so is versatile. May surprise some a bit when he isn't super close to the front runners. Has a race at CD where he ran alright. Seems like a grinder to me who may benefit with the added distance, but lacks a finishing kick
:9: Vinceremos
Showed nothing in the Bluegrass. May possibly be attributed to the all weather track. Has seemed like a horse that gives it his all in all of his races, so the Bluegrass is a ?. his ability to stalk and come and come again when asked is impressive. Seems like the kind of under-the-radar horse who sneaks into the exotics.
:10: Wildcat Red
Has never raced away from Gulfstream, which I find to be a speed favoring track, which suits him. In his only work at CD, he was the second slowest. He has held consistent form for all 7 races, which works for and against him. His best is probably right in line with how he has performed thus far. His sire wasn't a distance horse, so I don't think he'll improve with the extra bit of distance.
:12: Dance With Fate
Can mold into whatever the race he is in demands. Will probably be running in the back half of the race. Nothin seems to bother him. It bugs me he wasn't able to finish in either the frontrunner of the BCJuv at 2 at SA. That move in the Bluegrass was great, and he did after not running for 2 months. I think he could be sharpening up at the right time to make a big impact in this one. The Bluegrass is getting less respect now than in a while. Could be the yearthat swings back for a big return.
:13: Chitu
Took an easier route to the derby which gives us good odds on this one. He has put the competition away in 3 of 4 races. He has dealth with varying paces, and has raced successfully at 3 different tracks. Has a great shipper trainer and has been working arguably the best of all the entries at CD. Hasn't ever layed off the pace. What works for this one is the front, and he has to go for it.
:14: Medal Count
Romans has been high on this horse, and I think he could be sitting on a big race as well. He has definitely struggled a lot throughout his past performances, but he has some pretty good performances to back them up. Swinging very wide finishing a close 2nd in the bluegrass, I thought he looked more gamely than he has before. If he is sitting on a good one like I think he is, he has one of the best chances to win.
:15: Tapiture
Has two really good races at CD on his resume. Had the points needed for the derby already before last. had a different rider in last. Can sit maybe 5 lengths off the leaders and inherit the lead. some of his lines could be confused with Chrome's. Last was the only race he really didn't finish strong. Could very well be able to regroup
:16: Intense Holiday
Has improved a lot in his last 3 and could still be on the improve. His Risen star performance was steller, and he had to get closer to the :1: in the LA derby so as to not let him get away. That won't be his job today, and will lay well off the pace. An improving horse who is agile enough to avoid traffic trouble. Could be there as well.
:17: Commanding Curve
I haven't see the same finishing power in this one that I see in some others, but ran his best figure in last out and showed the ability to deal with traffic in last. Could be another Golden Soul.
:18: Candy Boy
Good horse. Stevens knows what he is doing with him, but I don't think he will be good enough
:19: Ride on Curlin
far back Exotics. Consistent. Know where he stands. Shouldn't be too close to the pace, but could get caught outside or a little far back.
:20: Wicked Strong
I think he's a bit too picky with how he runs. Far outside helps him though. Has always had the outside posts. On the improve and has a good grasp of running style. I like the 3f tuning work. I think this horse is peaking.