My Derby Thoughts...

[PaceAdvantage]

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[precocity]

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UP EARLY PA? GOOD LUCK ITS ABOUT 4.10 AM HERE WILL BE AT LONE STAR BY 11.00AM READY TO ROLL!!!!!!

[clocker7]

Good read, PACE. That you are confident in your figs ... may it serve you well.

[depalma113]

Good luck to you. In Trouble's loss in Louisiana really got me off of anything in New York.

[clocker7]

Good luck to you. In Trouble's loss in Louisiana really got me off of anything in New York.
I hear you.

The KD is so unique--invariably most guessers will be wrong--that it often is fun (or profitable) to take a super strong stand, one way or another.

Imo, toss the NY horses altogether and play the best of the rest. It's a counterplay that keeps Chrome on your tickets, while eliminating some overbet (potentially, who knows) false choices.

Prepare to wear egg or eat crow, but as long as you keep your wagering within budget no problem. This is the day to get creative.

[depalma113]

I'll eat crow if I have too. Wouldn't be the first time. Chrome is just so much better than these, I see no way he loses other than not getting out of the barn for the walkover.

[PaceAdvantage]

I see no way he loses other than not getting out of the barn for the walkover.Wow...I couldn't see this race any more differently from you if I tried.

I see Chrome as quite vulnerable, and a terrible wager at the odds he is going to be. Awful, awful bet.

[clocker7]

As I said before, go for it PACE. Having strong convictions today is not a vulnerability, if betting amounts are kept within reason. The randomness of the traffic can make for tidy profits, should everything line up with one's handicapping.

[sammy the sage]

I hear you.

The KD is so unique--invariably most guessers will be wrong--that it often is fun (or profitable) to take a super strong stand, one way or another.

Imo, toss the NY horses altogether and play the best of the rest. It's a counterplay that keeps Chrome on your tickets, while eliminating some overbet (potentially, who knows) false choices.

Prepare to wear egg or eat crow, but as long as you keep your wagering within budget no problem. This is the day to get creative.

Brilliant...one horse gets in trouble in a race...so one throws out all the other's he'd previously ran against...

I'm so :jump: that you are IN THE pools w/that type of reasoning...thank you thank you thank you...

[wiffleball whizz]

Wow...I couldn't see this race any more differently from you if I tried.

I see Chrome as quite vulnerable, and a terrible wager at the odds he is going to be. Awful, awful bet.


So your saying $600 show and CC is a bad play?

It's like walking into a Casino and knowing your gonna get blackjack...(the 6/5 variety before the casino experts chime in it's 3/2)

Best of luck sir?

[BettinBilly]

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I happen to agree, Pace. The only reason I wagered Chrome to win (for a token $25) was because of the TVG 4/1 Odds Guarantee - Max bet $25. But hey, it's the Derby. If Chromey happens to get it on and win by 3 or 4 lengths as some are predicting, I have some winnings. If not (and that's my prediction) it's only $25 and the bulk went to Wicked, a few others and some very nice exotics.

By 7 PM we shall know. Enjoy the Derby Gentlemen.

[Rex Phinney]

Just so we are clear pace, this California guy that has been watching Chrome run all spring thinks your crazy. In the end anyone backing Wicked Strong or Danza is backing a one hit wonder.

I think by the time Wicked Strong comes calling California Chrone will be long gone, but happy Derby Day and good luck!

[Tom]

Not at all impressed by anything on the West Coast.
They run on a real race track today, not I5.

[HUSKER55]

CC is going to be facing several strong challengers of the type he hasn't met before.

but it is the DERBY!

Have a great day everyone!

[GaryG]

I am strongly convicted that Medal Count will run big. Needs a career performance, but he ran better than the winner in the BG and is coming up to the race super. Would like to see Art Sherman get the big one late in his career but I wouldn't "bet on it".

[depalma113]

Not at all impressed by anything on the West Coast.
They run on a real race track today, not I5.

Is that the real track where the California speed demolished the field in the third race?

[burnsy]

Nice write up. I agree, the strongest field and pace was in the Wood. I'm liking :6: Samraat, :20: Wicked Strong. The fave may be vulnerable with tough pace and distance. It is a bad bet in a race like this. Good luck to him, he can win but I can't use on top. If he does win, I'll be a believer then because I don't like the preps he won. I'm under the assumption that these are deeper waters in the east this year. I'm kind of confident that this horse has not met the best yet.

[SecretAgentMan]

Speed is holding big time at Churchill.......

[luisbe]

The way the track is playing I believe CC and Samraat will have something to say in today's Derby.

[comet52]

My derby thought is... Bode Miller's wife is hot :eek: :ThmbUp:

[cj's dad]

Tapature will be coming late- hopefully before 6:45 PM. seriously. I think many in here will have little awareness of the track surface and will try to outrun the field and be caught late. I bet both the #'s 15 and 20.

Good luck all !

[PaceAdvantage]

I just wish I wasn't so stubbornly against CC that I failed to use him on top in any of my exacta plays, even though I had the 2nd place horse underneath. A simple little "hey, let me put a saver in case I'm dead wrong about CC" could have made a world of difference...

[clocker7]

Brilliant...one horse gets in trouble in a race...so one throws out all the other's he'd previously ran against...

I'm so :jump: that you are IN THE pools w/that type of reasoning...thank you thank you thank you...
In fairness to you, I was a little too brief/abrupt with my reasoning in that particular post for a bettor not playing Wicked Strong and Samraat.

Now, in fairness to me, I wasn't agreeing with the other poster that trouble in Louisiana formed my basis, but was only agreeing with his conclusion that the Wood horses could be plausibly dropped completely. Why? If you had read my several, detailed handicapping posts of the Wood scattered around the site, you would have seen that I disliked them for a variety of solid reasons. Samraat, because his figs didn't match up well with the task at hand, and Wicked Strong because his task was so much more demanding and that his one-run abilities would not be a positive in a 19-horse cavalry charge.

PS: I also stated early on here that my betting discipline meant that I always toss the Derby out of principle. Hope that you made out, anyway.

[Shelby]

I just wish I wasn't so stubbornly against CC that I failed to use him on top in any of my exacta plays, even though I had the 2nd place horse underneath. A simple little "hey, let me put a saver in case I'm dead wrong about CC" could have made a world of difference...

Hey, at least you took a firm stand. I played him on top of one of my tickets but forgot to include Commanding Curve (huge screw up--I KNEW he would hit the board).

[onefast99]

Hey, at least you took a firm stand. I played him on top of one of my tickets but forgot to include Commanding Curve (huge screw up--I KNEW he would hit the board).
You have another chance to get even in 2 weeks.

[Shelby]

You have another chance to get even in 2 weeks.


Maybe….but the odds won't be near as good.

[delayjf]

They run on a real race track today, not I5.

if they ran on the I-5 they'd be stuck in traffic smelling each other gas - but hey the weather is nice.

[classhandicapper]

I just wish I wasn't so stubbornly against CC that I failed to use him on top in any of my exacta plays, even though I had the 2nd place horse underneath. A simple little "hey, let me put a saver in case I'm dead wrong about CC" could have made a world of difference...

Don't feel too bad about that. I can tell you from experience that's a slippery slope.

If you feel that the favorite is bad value (which I assume you did), IMO you should not use him on top UNLESS you have some other horse you think is GREAT value. Hooking overbet horses to other horses you simply like as contenders doesn't create value.

I was warming up to him all week, but I still left him off all my tickets.

[clocker7]

One benefit of PACE's pre-race confidence in the Wood runners was to make me look closer over&over&over at them than any other of CC's opponents. Now, after the KDerby, it has given me a better appreciation of Wicked Strong. I lean toward the opinion that he was the second best horse, and might even have been the winner had the traffic been more favorable.

At this moment, he would be my Belmont pick, if they pass the Preakness. The contrarian in me makes me think that the Preakness might even be doable, if Social Inclusion provides a nasty pace and the field isn't too large. But WS not being there probably is a safe stance.

[Izzy2742]

One benefit of PACE's pre-race confidence in the Wood runners was to make me look closer over&over&over at them than any other of CC's opponents. Now, after the KDerby, it has given me a better appreciation of Wicked Strong. I lean toward the opinion that he was the second best horse, and might even have been the winner had the traffic been more favorable.

At this moment, he would be my Belmont pick, if they pass the Preakness. The contrarian in me makes me think that the Preakness might even be doable, if Social Inclusion provides a nasty pace and the field isn't too large. But WS not being there probably is a safe stance.

I agree. He could be the WTC of this crop, although I doubt he will race in all three Triple Crown races.

[clocker7]

I agree. He could be the WTC of this crop, although I doubt he will race in all three Triple Crown races.
It looks to me like Wicked Strong has a more explosive stretch run than WTC. But other than that, your comparison is very insightful.

[camluck49]

I only bet harness except for the Triple Crown races. My friend who plays TB said he loved the 17. The Guru guy on the Horse-players show said he loved CC on a interview on TV. On one of the pre race shows the hosts said that Danza and WS had some nice workouts at CD. So i keyed 5-4,17,18,20. Ex, Triple and super for a $1.00. Except i took out the 18 on the super bet because i wanted to save money. $2.00wps on 17,18,20. $2.00 Ex and Tri bx 4-5-20.

My friend didnt like the 5 but played 17- all, all 17 ex. He bet 17 WPS He did get a 50 cent triple with a 6 horse Bx. So for me it was pretty much just a lucky hit. I did also make a few hundred betting harness. I did read the Triple Crown thread on the forum also.

[Rex Phinney]

I was going to bet CC no matter what, but I will say his penchant for being near the front had me worried, until I watched the undercard on Derby day, the horses who where good enough to win, did so from the front all day, I fee like some of you guys should have picked up on that. Shoot I was even putting Wildcat red in my tri bet because I though he could hold on and hit the board.

[Valuist]

I'm just watching the replay now, and Danza should've been DQ'd. No inquiry? He came out several paths and impeded several horses.

[SmartyLane]

Danza really messed some things up nearing the finish line.....It looked to me that Medal Count was just getting started and his head went down, and started to stretch out.........just thing Danza cut him off BIGTIME!!! I really think MC would of been 2nd/3rd if he wouldn't of been cut off like that.

It may be wishful thinking, being that if Commanding Curve gets 4th, I hit the the Super :(

The night before the race I had my big super bet wrote down, but with the speed holding so well through the day, I moved Curve from the 2nd, and 3rd spots, and just put him in the 4th.