A question for all the Chrome/Vicars critics ...

[Mad Scientist]

I think Chrome and Vicars are clear cut standouts, but many here don't agree with me, do my question is who is this magical horse in the field with no faults that is going to take those two down ?

Intense Holiday ??? ... He finished ahead of Vicars in the Risen Star that's true but Vicars was actually the better horse in the race when considering post and trip, and Vicars proved that by handily beating Intense Holiday next time out in the LA derby. Thinking Holiday will improve to make up the 3 lengths in the derby seems unlikely since Vicars was the horse that raced greenly and if anyone is going to improve off the LA derby it would be him and not Holiday.

Wicked Strong ??? ... A horse that needs to be within 4 or 5 lengths of the lead but is breaking from the outside post and does not have the natural speed to get good position from that post. He is also a horse who has just flat out quit in races when faced with any adversity.

Ride on Curlin ??? ... A horse that had always found a way not to win. A horse without any signature victories to his credit. A horse that had been habitually running behind many of these .

Dance with fate ??? ... The horse has never had a speed figure in the triple digits. A horse that his trainer did not even want to enter him because he does his best work on the poly but got his arm twisted by the owner.

Chitu / Wildcat Red / Samarat ??? ... 3 gritty hard trying horses for sure but also 3 horses that could not get a 1 1/4 mile even under the best of racing circumstances.

General A Rod / Uncle Sigh ??? .... These horses could not even get by the 3 horses I just mentioned above.

Candy Boy ??? ... He got toyed with by California Chrome in the Santa Anita Derby.

Danza ??? ... A 40-1 winner of the Arkansas Derby who happened to catch lightning in a bottle for one race, but has very little racing foundation to try and capture lightning in a bottle again in the derby.

Tapiture ??? ... A horse who clearly looks like he is heading the wrong direction after not even hitting the board in his last race when he had no excuses.

So my question is who is this magical horse with this impeccable resume who is going to take down the likes of California Chrome and Vicars in trouble ...

[bgbootha]

which ever horse gets the cleanest trip.

Samraat get clean, he will have a shot.

[SecretAgentMan]

which ever horse gets the cleanest trip.

Samraat get clean, he will have a shot.


I've seen plenty of horses get clean trips in the derby only to just hit a brick wall. A clean trip is good to have but you also need a horse that wants the extra distance.

[Boris]

They all have knocks against them, including yours. I love your passion but disagree with your logic.

[BlueChip@DRF]

And we've all seen horses that look DOMINATING at 9 furlongs just to hit a wall when it came time for them to run in the Derby.

[Rex Phinney]

The problem with 3 year olds in the spring in they are ever changing. Some are just figuring it out, they are all still growing.

This is why things happen in the derby that you don't see coming.

In this race wildcat red will be tough, I think he can actually out run the other speed here, and might get a Bodemeister type lead, I don't think he will win but only the horses with their A game are passing him.

I also am intrigued by Candy Boy, he took a layoff before the Santa Anita derby and may have needed a race before entering his best form.

[dartman51]

All this hype about California Chrome, reminds me of 1992, when all the racing world felt that is was a foregone conclusion that ARAZI would win the triple crown. Steve Cauthen rated him in the same class as AFFIRMED, P Val, who had ridden SUNDAY SILENCE to victory in '89, said that ARAZI could do more that SS, and that "the race is over". I was mocked and ridiculed when I told a group at the track, that he wouldn't hit the board. He finished 8th. Like Rex Phinney said, these are 3 yo's. A lot can change from one race to the next. CC may have already run his BEST race. Who knows? There's a few in here, that appear to be improving. That being said, CC MAY win the Derby, but I don't think it's a gimme.

[Valuist]

Somebody on another thread said they wanted Chrome to win because racing "needs a star".

Whoever wrote that should watch the race before the Derby because racing HAS a star: Wise Dan.

[Fager Fan]

All this hype about California Chrome, reminds me of 1992, when all the racing world felt that is was a foregone conclusion that ARAZI would win the triple crown. Steve Cauthen rated him in the same class as AFFIRMED, P Val, who had ridden SUNDAY SILENCE to victory in '89, said that ARAZI could do more that SS, and that "the race is over". I was mocked and ridiculed when I told a group at the track, that he wouldn't hit the board. He finished 8th. Like Rex Phinney said, these are 3 yo's. A lot can change from one race to the next. CC may have already run his BEST race. Who knows? There's a few in here, that appear to be improving. That being said, CC MAY win the Derby, but I don't think it's a gimme.

Arazi had surgery between 2 and 3. Then he was raced a couple times going short on turf in Europe as his preps for the Derby. Then he had to ship over. He was a fantastic horse who had problems both physical and the judgement of his humans and that's what caused him to lose. It definitely had nothing to do with horses maturing while he remaind the same.

[Fager Fan]

Somebody on another thread said they wanted Chrome to win because racing "needs a star".

Whoever wrote that should watch the race before the Derby because racing HAS a star: Wise Dan.

Very, very nice turf miler. The problem with his "stardom" is what I just said. Our best racing here is dirt routing. He's a standout beating up on far inferior horses.

[dartman51]

Arazi had surgery between 2 and 3. Then he was raced a couple times going short on turf in Europe as his preps for the Derby. Then he had to ship over. He was a fantastic horse who had problems both physical and the judgement of his humans and that's what caused him to lose. It definitely had nothing to do with horses maturing while he remaind the same.


I understand all that, but it didn't stop the hype, and it didn't stop him from going off as 4/5 favorite. It didn't stop some people from wanting to give him 'Horse of the year' honors, before he even ran in the Derby. No horse since, has gone off lower than 9/5. All I'm saying, is that people, including owners, trainers and jockeys, don't always know how good their horse is, or how good the competition is. In actual time, California Chrome is 2 1/2 months older than Tapiture. Do you not think that 2 1/2 months can make a difference in a young horse?

[depalma113]

Do you not think that 2 1/2 months can make a difference in a young horse?

Not at all. By this age, the physicality and mentality are both there. The day they were born in meaningless.

[dartman51]

Not at all. By this age, the physicality and mentality are both there. The day they were born in meaningless.

Obviously you are unaware that a horse continues to grow and develop to age 5. :eek:
Some horses, like humans, develop faster than others. That is a fact.

[depalma113]

Obviously you are unaware that a horse continues to grow and develop to age 5. :eek:
Some horses, like humans, develop faster than others. That is a fact.

You are comparing horses that are running in restricted races and whether one was born a month or two before the other is absolutely meaningless. A horse can get better between races, but it has nothing to do with getting closer to it's birthday.

[DJofSD]

Obviously you are unaware that a horse continues to grow and develop to age 5. :eek:
Some horses, like humans, develop faster than others. That is a fact.
The breed determines those factors for the most part.

For some of the warm bloods, yes, it is true they are still maturing as a five year old. I don't recall what it is for T'breds but I believe they're more or less matured as a 4 year old perhaps even as a 3 year old.