Vicars In Trouble

[Mad Scientist]

California Chrome is my horse for the derby. I think he will win easily, but I realize that's being captain obvious, so I am going to give you the clear cut second best horse in the race ...Vicars in Trouble

There has been a lot of people discounting him because of his slow final work of 5f 1:03 4/5 which was 58/70 for the day. But if you look at his past performances he had a almost identical work right before the LA derby. 5f 1:03 3/5 which was 23/25 for the day, and we all know how the LA derby worked out for him . That's just how Mike Maker works this horse before a big race.

Look at his form pattern. 103 speed figure as a 2 year old. 88 and 92 and than 104 as a 3 year old . When a horse exceeds his top figure as a 2 year old than that usually means he is really going to move forward in his next start, and it's just not speed figure patterns that suggest a move forward, but look how green he raced in the LA Derby . He still has a lot of room to improve in the Derby.

This horse is just sitting on a huge race, and considering his last race was as impressive as anyone's except for Chrome even the slightest bit of improvement makes him easily second best in the field.

The 1 hole is perfect for him . He's quick enough to be able to avoid getting boxed in. He will get the perfect trip. Setting the pace like he enjoys and being on the rail which is the shortest way around the track .

He showed his toughness and no quit attitude in the Risen Star when he had a terrible post and a terrible trip and still made a huge middle move and fought till the end and hit the board.

If Chrome was not on the race than Vicars in Trouble would be a single for me. The horse is 20-1 on the morning line and with all the hype about the 1 post being impossible to win from you might get 25-1 at post time.

[precocity]

TOSS!

[ArlJim78]

I'm with you on Chrome but couldn't disagree more about Vicars In Trouble. horse was almost staggering at the end of the LA derby, slowed down, drifted out and switched back to wrong lead. i wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole in the derby.

[Mad Scientist]

I agree he was drifting out and switched to his wrong lead and that was because he was green. I disagree that he was staggering and slowing down. Intense Holiday was not making up any ground on him at all at the end of the race.

[bgbootha]

The 1 hole is perfect for him . He's quick enough to be able to avoid getting boxed in. He will get the perfect trip. Setting the pace like he enjoys and being on the rail which is the shortest way around the track .


I could not disagree more with this part of your logic.

Vicar will try to take the lead, but that doesn't mean he will be able to from the 1 hole. Honestly I think Harry Holiday was the worst possible horse to draw to two for Vicars chances.

If you watch the break in Harry Holiday's last three starts...just watch the first 5 seconds of the races.

In the Blue Grass he is in PP4 with Pablo De Monte (another very quick horse) on his inside. HH jumps out what looks slow compared to PDM, but HH hits his stride, is on the next line and then slams down to the rail.


In the Spiral , he again doesn't get the lead but he JUMPS out of the gate again, reacting nicely.


No video of his third last start on youtube and I can't link my twinspires replay. But HH breaks like a good quarter horse, which is going to be a huge problem for Vicars being on the inside. Especially in the 1 slot.

Now if Pablo Scratches (we shoudl know tomorrow morning) and they move everyone out one..that will be a differetn story, Viars willhave room. But as of right now, Vicars has to get the jump or the rail wil force him behind.

Look at what happend to Lookin At Lucky back in 2010. He beat the 2 horse out of the gate but couldnt' get in front of the 3 horse, got slammed into the rail that jumps out at the 1 and 2 spots.

That 1 hole is not always tough, but it all depends on who draws 2 and 3, and this year you have HH and a 1st time blinkers Uncle Sigh. Going to be tough.

* Tried linking the videos but it didn't work.

[PhantomOnTour]

I agree he was drifting out and switched to his wrong lead and that was because he was green. I disagree that he was staggering and slowing down. Intense Holiday was not making up any ground on him at all at the end of the race.
Intense Holiday was staggering too.

I am a Louisiana bred myself and can even put a few sentimental "homer" dollars on this guy.
I think he backs out of it fairly early.

[lamboguy]

forget about the rail, i was looking for a reason to play this horse. after watching his works, he looks sore to me and probably shouldn't even be in this race.

[depalma113]

He stole the La Derby.

[Mineshaft]

forget about the rail, i was looking for a reason to play this horse. after watching his works, he looks sore to me and probably shouldn't even be in this race.




he wont be sore during the race

[lamboguy]

he wont be sore during the raceKen Ramsey has a full time girl that does a magna wave treatment on their horses, i am sure this one is getting that treatment and might get it the day of the race. as far as i know there is no law against it. the machine cost $25,000 and Ramsey has done very well since he has been using it.

[ArlJim78]

I agree he was drifting out and switched to his wrong lead and that was because he was green. I disagree that he was staggering and slowing down. Intense Holiday was not making up any ground on him at all at the end of the race.
Intense Holiday was staggering even more and is another throwout for me.
I can't believe how many people are talking about that horse. He had a dream trip in LA but came up empty and wobbly when it counted.

Vicars was green? please, I know the difference between green and tired. Vicars has no shot. His only play is to gun from the gate and get the lead and try to hold on which he would never be able to do because this is a much better field especially in terms of the company he will have on the front end.
You said he overcame trouble in the Risen Star, I say no he didn't, he tried and failed, flattened out, empty.

[precocity]

its me or the field is going to be looking at Chitu azz for a while!!!!! :cool:

[Mad Scientist]

So you know the difference between being tired or green ... Well watch a replay of the LeComte and see how he was zig zagging in the stretch of that race just like he was in the LA derby. Are you going to tell me he was tired in the LeComte ??? He was destroying that field while zig zagging. Sorry that's green and not tired.

As far as you saying he got a clean trip in the Risen Star . I don't know what race you were watching, but it's not even up for debate . He had a horrible post and a horrible trip.

So why don't you tell us who your horse is and why ...

[Invasor]

"Pace was also a story coming out of the Louisiana Derby, with Vicar’s in Trouble turning a much easier lead than anyone not named Ken Ramsey could have expected into a runaway score over Risen Star winner Intense Holiday. How unremarkable was the pace Vicar’s in Trouble set? It was marginally slower than the pace in the off-the-turf Dixie Poker for Louisiana breds, it was slower than an off-the-turf allowance race, and slower early than two other Louisiana bred stakes – the Crescent City Derby, and the Crescent City Oaks.I do realize that Vicar’s in Trouble had a bad trip from a tough post when third in the Risen Star after a middle move, and I know he came from second when he romped in the LeComte in his first start this year. But I can’t help but think Vicar’s in Trouble is one of a handful of horses aiming for the Kentucky Derby who are accustomed to performing well after being involved in soft paces." Mike Watchmaker

I couldn't agree more.

[SecretAgentMan]

"Pace was also a story coming out of the Louisiana Derby, with Vicar’s in Trouble turning a much easier lead than anyone not named Ken Ramsey could have expected into a runaway score over Risen Star winner Intense Holiday. How unremarkable was the pace Vicar’s in Trouble set? It was marginally slower than the pace in the off-the-turf Dixie Poker for Louisiana breds, it was slower than an off-the-turf allowance race, and slower early than two other Louisiana bred stakes – the Crescent City Derby, and the Crescent City Oaks.I do realize that Vicar’s in Trouble had a bad trip from a tough post when third in the Risen Star after a middle move, and I know he came from second when he romped in the LeComte in his first start this year. But I can’t help but think Vicar’s in Trouble is one of a handful of horses aiming for the Kentucky Derby who are accustomed to performing well after being involved in soft paces." Mike Watchmaker

I couldn't agree more.

So is he saying Vicars has a shot to win or not? I font understand what he's saying of Vicars coming off s soft paced race which he won..........

[BettinBilly]

Vicars is part of my Exotics. I'm not betting him to win.

[Valuist]

So is he saying Vicars has a shot to win or not? I font understand what he's saying of Vicars coming off s soft paced race which he won..........

He doesn't like him.