Trainers will have no choice but to go after Cali Chrome early

[Bill Cullen]

Premsie 1) Cali Chrome has six wins being close up at all six first calls of those races

Premise 2) The last thee races saw Cali Chrome setting or pressing above average pace pars at the first call and then taking off only after the 2nd call to score big wins. In fact his lengths ahead or behind in his last three races were identical within each race at both the first call and second call. THE PREDICTABILITY OF HIS RUNNING STYLE IS THE ONLY SERIOUS VARIABLE FOR THE OTHER TRAINERS TO CONSIDER

Conclusion: 1) The only strategy I see for beating the Chrome is to press him early and hard which means a fast pace and hope he's peaked form-wise.

A fast pace seems a foregone conclusion.

Bill C

[wisconsin]

Which trainers are going to instruct their jockeys into suicide?

[SecretAgentMan]

Was watching HRTV & all the commentators were saying the stalkers in the derby will have to surround & box in Chrome if he breaks well.......lmao!

Like all the jockeys will mess up their chance of winning by boxing in another horse, especially the fastest one in the field.

If Chrome was coming out of the auxillary gate like Wicked, I would say that the field could try & push Chrome wide as much as they could but having a good post & tactical speed should have Chrome sitting pretty.

Also, the only horse I see going out front & setting the pace is Wildcat Red & if no one presses him, he will carry it a long way until Chrome passes him.

[Bill Cullen]

Which trainers are going to instruct their jockeys into suicide?

How else do you beat Cali Chrome at least theoretically? I know once the race starts the situational race dynamics will be the main drivers but how do you even conceive of beating Cali Chrome wihtout being close up and pushing the pace? Here I'm assuming the Chrome is close up too.

What other viable alternative is there if your intent is to really beat Cali chrome and win the Derby?

Best to you,

Bill C

[Bill Cullen]

P.S. - I will not accept the proposition (suggested to me in a private email) that 18 or 19 other trainers and owners are only trying to get second place in the Ken Derby for the publicity value vis-a-vis the future breeding value of the horses involved.

Bill C

[Bill Cullen]

Was watching HRTV & all the commentators were saying the stalkers in the derby will have to surround & box in Chrome if he breaks well.......lmao!

Like all the jockeys will mess up their chance of winning by boxing in another horse, especially the fastest one in the field.

If Chrome was coming out of the auxillary gate like Wicked, I would say that the field could try & push Chrome wide as much as they could but having a good post & tactical speed should have Chrome sitting pretty.

Also, the only horse I see going out front & setting the pace is Wildcat Red & if no one presses him, he will carry it a long way until Chrome passes him.

The horse flesh is there to challenge the Chrome at a competitive pace at both calls. The key question here IMHO is: has the Chrome peaked enough (if at all) in his form cycle so a faster than average pace with an extra furlong to run is enough to keep the Chrome contained AND allow another horse or horses to pass him by in the last quarter mile?

Best,

Bill C

[bgbootha]

Well I have to be honest I think CC is going to have a tough time with the early pace that is going to be set around him. Look at just the first 10 posts.

http://xtupload.com/image.php?id=0EC5_5362DF16
*not sure why the image won't show up*

These are using my own Early Speed figures, but CC is going to have a tough time not falling behind a wall of horses.

We know Vicar's will have to try to gun it from the 1 spot. Harry's Holiday will be out front as he usually is. Uncle Sigh's adds blinkers and should start well. Now he will have room to the inside with Danza, which may be a false blessing. Say he drops in behind HH, Vicars and Uncle sigh (or likely two of the three as someone will likely get squeezed)

Coming on CC's outside will be samraat who will try to race the same race CC wants to race. Joined by General A Rod, Vinceremos and WildCat who we all know want to go for the lead.

I have a feeling CC is going to be in the middle of quite the traffic jam as they head into the first turn. SOmething he has NEVER had to deal with before.

Now I am not saying that he can't win, I still think he has a shot and he is on top of my picks, but it isn't going to be as easy as some say it will. And as others have said his value is not going to be there.

[Bill Cullen]

Well I have to be honest I think CC is going to have a tough time with the early pace that is going to be set around him. Look at just the first 10 posts.

http://xtupload.com/image.php?id=0EC5_5362DF16
*not sure why the image won't show up*

These are using my own Early Speed figures, but CC is going to have a tough time not falling behind a wall of horses.

We know Vicar's will have to try to gun it from the 1 spot. Harry's Holiday will be out front as he usually is. Uncle Sigh's adds blinkers and should start well. Now he will have room to the inside with Danza, which may be a false blessing. Say he drops in behind HH, Vicars and Uncle sigh (or likely two of the three as someone will likely get squeezed)

Coming on CC's outside will be samraat who will try to race the same race CC wants to race. Joined by General A Rod, Vinceremos and WildCat who we all know want to go for the lead.

I have a feeling CC is going to be in the middle of quite the traffic jam as they head into the first turn. SOmething he has NEVER had to deal with before.

Now I am not saying that he can't win, I still think he has a shot and he is on top of my picks, but it isn't going to be as easy as some say it will. And as others have said his value is not going to be there.

The best analysis of the potential trip problems I've read to date.
Your post was more than worth the effort in starting this thread.

Thanks, bgbootha.

Bill C

[SecretAgentMan]

This seems like deja vu .......2002 again with people trying to figure out where horses will be with all the front runners & War Emblem wired the field.

Chrome has the tactical speed to get out front & wire this field but I don't think it will happen. Everyone is worried about the pace & the only horse to go out front IMO will be Wilcat Red.

Chrome will be sitting 2 lengths off the pace. As for the other horses around Chrome, will they be battling it out for position to try & catch Wildcat? We shall see......

[Mad Scientist]

Watch chromes last 4 races. He won them all for fun and was never even asked to get out of second gear. I watched all the other horses prep races and they have all been all out at some point or another and still didn't look anywhere as good as chrome looked when he was turning his races into nothing more than paid workouts.

I know all his critics are going to say he was not facing strong fields , but really who has he been ducking ???

So he did not race in New York ... Who did he duck there ??? Uncle Sigh and Samarat ???? Samarat was all out to beat In Trouble and social inclusion, and Uncle Sigh can't even beat Samarat ...

Or is it the arkansas horses led by tapiture ... Hoppertunity beat tapiture and chrome dusted hoppertunity ....

Or is it the florida horses led by wildcat red ??? Wildcat red does not want a 1 mike and a 1/8 much less a mile and 1/4 ...

Or has he been ducking the LA horses ??? Like intense holiday who got dusted by vicars.

Look at midnight hawk ... Say all you want about his distance limitations but he always managed to keep it close except against chrome who left him in the dust while basically being wrapped up down the stretch.

Chrome has the speed and versatility and a decent enough post to easily make his own race . When victor asks him in the stretch and chrome kicks it into high gear it's going to look like secretariat in the Belmont.

[Stillriledup]

Watch chromes last 4 races. He won them all for fun and was never even asked to get out of second gear. I watched all the other horses prep races and they have all been all out at some point or another and still didn't look anywhere as good as chrome looked when he was turning his races into nothing more than paid workouts.

I know all his critics are going to say he was not facing strong fields , but really who has he been ducking ???

So he did not race in New York ... Who did he duck there ??? Uncle Sigh and Samarat ???? Samarat was all out to beat In Trouble and social inclusion, and Uncle Sigh can't even beat Samarat ...

Or is it the arkansas horses led by tapiture ... Hoppertunity beat tapiture and chrome dusted hoppertunity ....

Or is it the florida horses led by wildcat red ??? Wildcat red does not want a 1 mike and a 1/8 much less a mile and 1/4 ...

Or has he been ducking the LA horses ??? Like intense holiday who got dusted by vicars.

Look at midnight hawk ... Say all you want about his distance limitations but he always managed to keep it close except against chrome who left him in the dust while basically being wrapped up down the stretch.

Chrome has the speed and versatility and a decent enough post to easily make his own race . When victor asks him in the stretch and chrome kicks it into high gear it's going to look like secretariat in the Belmont.

People who use the "beat nothing" argument are just not able to evaluate that runner as an individual, i find the "beat nothing" crowd to be much weaker horseplayers than the people who take everything into context.

[precocity]

Watch chromes last 4 races. He won them all for fun and was never even asked to get out of second gear. I watched all the other horses prep races and they have all been all out at some point or another and still didn't look anywhere as good as chrome looked when he was turning his races into nothing more than paid workouts.

I know all his critics are going to say he was not facing strong fields , but really who has he been ducking ???

So he did not race in New York ... Who did he duck there ??? Uncle Sigh and Samarat ???? Samarat was all out to beat In Trouble and social inclusion, and Uncle Sigh can't even beat Samarat ...

Or is it the arkansas horses led by tapiture ... Hoppertunity beat tapiture and chrome dusted hoppertunity ....

Or is it the florida horses led by wildcat red ??? Wildcat red does not want a 1 mike and a 1/8 much less a mile and 1/4 ...

Or has he been ducking the LA horses ??? Like intense holiday who got dusted by vicars.

Look at midnight hawk ... Say all you want about his distance limitations but he always managed to keep it close except against chrome who left him in the dust while basically being wrapped up down the stretch.

Chrome has the speed and versatility and a decent enough post to easily make his own race . When victor asks him in the stretch and chrome kicks it into high gear it's going to look like secretariat in the Belmont.
Santa Anita? goldencents!!!! :D

[Mad Scientist]

Compare how the horses coming out of the Santa Anita Derby have done the last 10 years vs. the horses coming out of the Wood Memorial ...

[clocker7]

People should watch the running of the SA Derby a little closer. Chrome was lapped on the leader for much of the early running and had another lapped on him. In particularly, watch for the moments when the leader would spurt a little ... CC professionally stayed at his own pace and kept himself in an economical stride. No panic, no alpha dog instincts coming to the fore, no seeming stress caused by the situation he was in. That bodes well for Saturday.

It was his ability to be so workmanlike under a pace which was above par that allowed him to have extra energy to blast by going into the stretch, and make it a bigger laugher that it normally would have been, imo.

[precocity]

ok home skillets got him in my super and tri and I box 6 colts? so will be rooting for him and the rest to get my money back are make trillssssss? :D

this they way I SEE IT CC MAKES A BARBARO SCOOP ON THEIR AZZ!!! OR TIRES IN THE STRETCH!!!!!HOPE HE COMES IN 4TH OR NOT AT ALL!!! IF HE DOES BLOW THEM AWAY I WILL ROOT FOR THE TRIPLE CROWN FOR HIM!!!

[precocity]

Compare how the horses coming out of the Santa Anita Derby have done the last 10 years vs. the horses coming out of the Wood Memorial ...
SO 3 POST? :rolleyes:

[depalma113]

If Chrome wants the lead, he will take it and run this field into the ground. He isn't a need the lead speedball though. He is quite good enough to sit wherever he needs to be and kick on coming in to the stretch and leaving everyone else in his wake.

[BlueChip@DRF]

This seems like deja vu .......2002 again with people trying to figure out where horses will be with all the front runners & War Emblem wired the field.

Chrome has the tactical speed to get out front & wire this field but I don't think it will happen. Everyone is worried about the pace & the only horse to go out front IMO will be Wilcat Red.

Chrome will be sitting 2 lengths off the pace. As for the other horses around Chrome, will they be battling it out for position to try & catch Wildcat? We shall see......

In 2002, the only other legitimate front runner that could have pressed War Emblem for the lead was Medaglia d'Oro. What happened? Medaglia bobbled and was bumped at the start and soon swallowed up by "slower" horses in front of him who broke well. He couldn't get out of that traffic jam because of the volume of horses surrounding him.

This Derby is reminding me more of the 2005 Derby.

[burnsy]

Which trainers are going to instruct their jockeys into suicide?

They don't....but these horses have never been 10f. When is the pace ever over 47 to the half? Derby fever baby, its usually 45 or 46.....tops..........Do people even think about past running's? When is it not suicide? Every now and then the pace is reasonable but with some of these and a speedball drawing in.......the pace will most likely be hot. Doesn't matter whose getting bet or who people think you got to beat. That's just the nature of the derby fever and I don't think the other trainers are afraid of one horse....they just want to win. The only ones that think this race is a sure thing are the whackos on the internet. If people use the attitude "sure thing" on ANY wager.....I laugh. When I hear "sure thing" in a race like this one..that just means bet someone, anyone else too. Why does everyone compare this horse to Big Brown? Because it happens every 10 years or less. Which means 9 of those years its excuses and tears. :lol: not my first rodeo and I think this horse has weaknesses......a fast pace...contested over a long distance (surrounded)....may be one of them. Its gonna happen, by design or not......

[SecretAgentMan]

In 2002, the only other legitimate front runner that could have pressed War Emblem for the lead was Medaglia d'Oro. What happened? Medaglia bobbled and was bumped at the start and soon swallowed up by "slower" horses in front of him who broke well. He couldn't get out of that traffic jam because of the volume of horses surrounding him.

This Derby is reminding me more of the 2005 Derby.



Med Pro was a young house with only 4 career starts before the derby & was a very erratic horse to control & Frankel only had him for 2 races before the derby. No comparison between him & Chrome & Chrome won't make those mistakes.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Med Pro was a young house with only 4 career starts before the derby & was a very erratic horse to control & Frankel only had him for 2 races before the derby. No comparison between him & Chrome & Chrome won't make those mistakes.

A poor break is a poor break. Multiplied and magnified if it happens to a horse that needs the lead or has to be up close to it.

[Robert Goren]

With 19 horse running, there is a high probability that at least one, maybe two, horses will be sent in an attempt to steal the derby on the front end. Never mind that it hasn't worked in years. It is tried every year and sometimes by pretty good horses.