What are the odds of having a TC winner this year?

[DeltaLover]

What are the odds of having a TC winner this year?

[thaskalos]

Over 30-1.

I had made a bet with a member of this board where I laid 30-1 odds against I'll Have Another winning the Triple Crown. If I didn't lose that bet...then I'll never lose.

Mystical forces are at work, which are sabotaging the TC chances of these horses...IMO.

[BettinBilly]

As much as I'd like to say that the odds are good of having a TC winner this year, the odds are against it.

Sadly.

And, I hope I am wrong.

[Moto Pete]

75-1

[wiffleball whizz]

Mathematically California chrome is about 16/1

Parlay +250 in derby with the -160 in Preakness and then -200 in Belmont and u get 16/1.......or 100 for like 1682

[TucsonGreyhound]

Mathematically California chrome is about 16/1

Parlay +250 in derby with the -160 in Preakness and then -200 in Belmont and u get 16/1.......or 100 for like 1682

http://i.imgur.com/1FQzhf9.gif

[senortout]

http://i.imgur.com/1FQzhf9.gif

good 'un for only your second post, welcome aboard!

[dannyhill]

Mathematically California chrome is about 16/1

Parlay +250 in derby with the -160 in Preakness and then -200 in Belmont and u get 16/1.......or 100 for like 1682
Does this mean 3/5 in Preakness then 1/2 in the Belmont?

[wiffleball whizz]

Does this mean 3/5 in Preakness then 1/2 in the Belmont?


Yes in the ballpark.......we all know the odds are 30/1 at least

This is just mathematically the odds....

With a derby romp it could then be 1/2 and 1/5 respectively

[wiffleball whizz]

http://i.imgur.com/1FQzhf9.gif


That's hilarious :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[wiffleball whizz]

Mathematically California chrome is about 16/1

Parlay +250 in derby with the -160 in Preakness and then -200 in Belmont and u get 16/1.......or 100 for like 1682


Actually let's scratch that.......100 gets you 762....I didn't hit the minus button when he's -200

[Stillriledup]

Cal Chrome is not winning the Triple Crown. It might be some other horse, but its not going to be him.

[horses4courses]

Actually let's scratch that.......100 gets you 762....I didn't hit the minus button when he's -200

Erase the first leg, whizz.
It's only ever a Preakness/Belmont parlay for the Derby winner to win the TC.

Trouble is, the true odds of a horse winning it for the first time since 1978
are much higher than the over-bet odds in the final two classics.
If someone gave me 30-1 odds against it, though, I would bet it for the rest of my life and, hopefully, come out ahead.

Affirmed was my first taste of US racing when I was in the Poconos (age 20)
on a working vacation from school in Ireland. What a treat that was!

But, you're lucky enough to be too young to ever have seen that..... ;)

[dannyhill]

Actually let's scratch that.......100 gets you 762....I didn't hit the minus button when he's -200
That's what i was saying. It's like 850 back or so.
Gonna have to watch you when you're chopping pots i see.:)

[TucsonGreyhound]

Actual off-shore odds were +800 since bet down to +650

Since CC's connections don't seem to have many enemies and given the dark cloud of bad press hanging over this Triple crown season, if CC does win the Derby the gauntlet of horses he'd have to beat at Pimlico and Belmont may be less formidable than in years past.

[Cratos]

What are the odds of having a TC winner this year?

While I would love to see my fourth TC winner, I believe the probability of that happening this year is ZERO.

[DeltaLover]

Sorry boys but I will have to disagree from what appears to a the unanimous decision here!

Although the question cannot be answered with certainty, we can still come up with some reasonable estimates that in my opinion provide enough evidence that the chances of having a TC winner this or any other year should be close to the neighborhood of 15-1 rather than 30 or more!

Not to complicate the discussion, I will assume that crowd's opinion is pretty close to the real chances of any horse.

I think that you will agree with me, in that any derby winner going to Preakness will be at the most a 4-1 while if he wins and shows up in Belmont, he will be at most a 2-1 shot. Given these estimates it becomes obvious that the combined probability of a Preakness and Belmont wins will be in the range of 7% or approximately 13-1. Of course we need to consider the chance of a horse not showing up in either one of the two races, but at this point I think it is clear that a T ripple Crown winner is not that impossible as it looks from a first glance.

[NY BRED]

DRF's Mike Welsch notes California Chrome wasn't omfortable
working on Wed over the wet CD track on, and appeared initially stiff on
fast track Thursday.

long story short these comments underscore how wide open this derby
is..

[davew]

Actual off-shore odds were +800 since bet down to +650

Since CC's connections don't seem to have many enemies and given the dark cloud of bad press hanging over this Triple crown season, if CC does win the Derby the gauntlet of horses he'd have to beat at Pimlico and Belmont may be less formidable than in years past.


When the racebooks have him at 7/1, then probably closer to 20/1.
He will not get a pass if wins big in Kentucky Derby. Some good horses that just missed on points are gearing towards Preakness / Belmont.

[RacingFan1992]

I loved CC performances in the SA Derby and San Felipe. He was barely hit with a whip. I love that he is a seasoned horse meaning he has more than 6 starts. He has ten. I want to say 7 as a two year old with one win and undefeated as a three year old. The problem with the other Triple Crown contenders is that they were lightly raced and couldn't handle the campaign. The horses are treated as if they were made of fine bone china and when the Derby arrives it is expected of them to run like they are made of steel. I hope CC does not have the "Arazi" effect. Hope everyone has a good KD day. If CC were to win the TC, he would be the first horse from California to win, the first Hispanic jockey to win a Triple Crown and the first since Affirmed in 1978.