Dueling Software for the Derby

[Flysofree]

Let's all post our software's top 4 picks in order 1st 2nd 3rd and 4th for the KentuckyDerby to see they match up.... I know a lot of the top 2 picks will be the same so that won't show much..but the 3rd pick and especially the 4th picks will seperate the software.
Points awarded in the order 4-3-2-1 format...

I'll try to get E Pony picks.... Everyone join in here.. You have until 5pm on 5/3 to post the top 4 picks..

The Software showdown has begun.... :)

[SoCaGambler]

Pace Calculator's raw rating has it as follows.

California Chrome rating 902.00-1
Chitu------------------898.50-2
General A Rod---------890.50-3
Wildcat Red-----------890.50-4

With a tie for 4th
Candy Boy is 5th with 884.00-5

[ronestes]

1. California Chrome
2.Chitu
3.Wicked Strong
4.Tapiture

[Augenj]

100.0000 :5: California Chrome
094.3248 :20: Wicked Strong
094.1245 :4: Danza
094.0901 :6: Samraat

[pandy]

I'll post the Diamond Ratings on my handicappingwinners.com website tomorrow, as I do every year, but the Diamond System picked Chitu, 13-5-8-10.

[JustRalph]

Equisim.........no tampering by me..........

[kingfin66]

Equisim.........no tampering by me..........

I know nothing of that program, but the estimated fractional times look impossibly slow.

[FocusWiz]

Last year, I did a lot of experimenting with software that I found interesting for identifying certain angles, but not necessarily for general handicapping. I ran a couple of them to see what they find for the Kentucky Derby:

Quik-Pik rarely picks a horse to play, but picks Wicked Strong. Here are the top 4:

:20: Wicked Strong
21 Pablo Del Monte
:17: Commanding Curve
:10: Wildcat Red

InClover likes these:

:3: Uncle Sigh
:10: Wildcat Red
:6: Samraat
:13: Chitu

Handicap-12 highlights horses combines ratings across several key factors and here are the four highest:

:1: Vicar's in trouble 132.5
:2: Harry's Holiday 125.2
:13: Chitu 110.8
:8: General A Rod 109.7

Good luck, all.

[JustRalph]

I know nothing of that program, but the estimated fractional times look impossibly slow.

Just ignore it......it's because I haven't tweaked anything......

[PhantomOnTour]

My software doesn't make picks - it presents data in whatever form I want and then I make the picks :ThmbUp:

[Flysofree]

I think E Ponies is charging $10 and I'm not a member there at this time. So will post the Default picks from BetMix.

1. Vicar's in Trouble
5. California Chrome
15. Tapiture
13. Chitu

Good luck to all

[turninforhome10]

A method built for the Derby on QH
MY TIP SHEET PREDICTIONS (USING Pacer):
PGM HORSE ODDS JOCKEY TRAINER
5 CALIFORNIA CHROME 2.5 ESPINOZA V. SHERMAN A. :jump:
20 WICKED STRONG 8.0 MARAGH R. JERKENS J. A.
8 GENERAL A ROD 15.0 ROSARIO J. MAKER M. J. :jump:
4 DANZA 10.0 BRAVO J. PLETCHER T. A. :jump:
1 VICARS IN TROUBLE 30.0 NAPRAVNIK R. MAKER M. J.
19 RIDE ON CURLIN 15.0 BOREL C. H. GOWAN W. G.

The jumpers are my picks after watching the track workings this week.
Also feel that :16: Intense Holiday looks very good going over track and could be sitting on a big one.

[dartman51]

EquiSim results using HDW files.

[HTRFGuy]

HTRF Software

13 Chitu
5 California
18 Candy Boy
20 Wicked Strong

http://www.htrfsoftware.com/CDXR11_pars.HTM

[JustRalph]

EquiSim results using HDW files.

I guess I should have mentioned mine were BRIS. Thanks for the post :ThmbUp:

[Sparky13]

I am posting 4 different programs. The first 2 are actually hand held calculators that had the word "Computer" in their names. They are from the 70s and by the same company. The RaceTrack Computer II and Computerized Performance Rating. The other programs are computer software and again created by the same developer. They are Wired 4 Speed and Clutch. The results are as follows:

The RaceTrack Computer II

5-California Chrome -172.642
10-Wildcat Red -171.856
8- General A Rod -169.285
6-Samraat -159.166

Computerized Performance Rating

5-California Chrome -112.150
10-Wildcat Red -110.742
8- General A Rod -107.947
13-Chitu -107.860

Wired 4 Speed

5-California Chrome -15.34
20-Wicked Strong -14.74
13-Chitu -14.54
4-Danza -14.54

Clutch

5-California Chrome -15.28
20-Wicked Strong -14.67
18-Candy Boy -14.34
13-Chitu -14.31

They all obviously like California Chrome.

[Jingle]

MPH

1. Danza

2. California Chrome

3. Intense Holiday

4. Vicar's In Trouble

[douglasw32]

Our free program

HHX V2.3

Defaults

Califonia Chrome
Samraat
Uncle Sigh
Danza

[zerosky]

Timeform Ratings

California Chrome 140+
Danza 134p
Wicked Strong 134
Wildcat Red 133
Tapiture/Dance with fate = 132



Card Here (https://www.timeform.com/racing/images/FreeCards/ChurchillDownsSaturday3rdMay.pdf)

[rlopez781]

Workhorse Pro 2.0...

10 - Wildcat Red
13 - Chitu
5 - California Chrome
8 - General A Rod

[zerosky]

Racing Post Ratings

California Chrome 138
Wicked Strong 134
Chitu 132
Danza 132

[Helles]

I'm using HSH. By using the software to study the last 9 Derbys against 813 factors of my choosing, I came up with:

8 General a Rod
1 Vicar's in Trouble
13 Chitu
10 Wildcat Red
5 California Chrome

Since that is such a small sample of races, I found 84 Graded Stakes races to study against the same factors. Still a small sample but these were the results:

1 Vicar's in Trouble
4 Danza
13 Chitu
6 Samraat
5 California Chrome

After taking those contenders and checking them against two individual factors that seem to be predictive of winners (thanks Dave Schwartz), I settled on these four from the above-six total horses:

5 California Chrome
8 General a Rod
10 Wildcat Red
13 Chitu

[Flysofree]

Thanks Everyone... I went to Eponies and the picks are up today for free... How does he make any money?????

Anyway From E Ponies:
California Chrome
Samraat
Vicars in Trouble
Danza

His odds on California Chrome.... Take 6-5. Wow!!

[porkchop]

My pal Mike in fla just emailed me selections from something called thee top three 4 1 5 6 for what its worth

[Speed Figure]

I asked my program the questions and here was the answer. My PPO line "possible public odds" is off because their are just to many in the field.

[ldiatone]

MPH

1. Danza

2. California Chrome

3. Intense Holiday

4. Vicar's In Trouble
jingle are you using TM's downloads w/ MPH? Are you picking the pacelines or are you using 1-2 line auto select?
thanks

[cato]

Black Magic, aka BLAM has the following out of the box (with the odds so high and compacted, the program is essentially saying pass the race or bet lightly....in other words, good luck!)

5 California odds 11-1
8 General 12-1
12 Dance 14-1
16 Intense 14-1
15 Tapiture 14-1
1 Vicars 15-1
14 Medal 15-1

After I modified the paceline selection a little, #6 Samraat comes up to 2nd and 10 Wildcat shows in the top flight

5 California odds 10-1
6 Samraat 11-1
8 General 13-1
12 Dance 14-1
16 Intense 14-1
10 Wildcat 15-1
15 Tapiture 15-1
1 Vicars 15-1
14 Medal 15-1

The pace scenario is heavy pressure and the first two calls are listed as -

1st call -
13
1
5
8
10

Second call -
2
10
8
13
1

Good luck today!

Cato

[Tom]

Projected order of finish, HTR velocity, I picked the pace lines and contenders to use.

[JJMartin]

From my Excel software Setting 1:

1.CANDY BOY
2.DANZA
3.GENERAL A ROD
4.VICAR'S IN TROUBLE
5.INTENSE HOLIDAY
6.TAPITURE
7.CALIFORNIA CHROME

Setting 2:
1.DANZA
2.GENERAL A ROD
3.INTENSE HOLIDAY

[Tom]

Val4, my pace lines and contenders, third panel predicts order of finish.

[Jingle]

Idiatone--I used Bris files and auto 2 pacelines.

[ldiatone]

Idiatone--I used Bris files and auto 2 pacelines.
thanks i viewed a different read out using TM's PP's

[Flysofree]

No software had the exacta cold... One program did mention Commanding Curve in the top three, but had Wicked Strong predicted to win... Back to the drawing board for this old capper..

[Tom]

Lesson to be learned from this.....no program will pick the winner if you don't put him to begin with.

[WATT Wizard]

Hi Tom,

I know one progam that had all three trifectas out of the top four picks in every Triple Crown race in 2012 and that includes the Derby's $3,000 tri. With twenty horses in any Derby, that's not random. In 2013, I just didn't see the fastest swimmer.

Using the same program this year the publisher had Calif Chrome as the key and Danza likely to beat him. Needless to say, with #17, that exacta box didn't pan out too well.

[Flysofree]

Lesson to be learned from this.....no program will pick the winner if you don't put him to begin with.
But if you are going to throw out a horse why use software to begin with? Some folks simply didn't like the Derby winner because he was the post race favorite.

Maybe I'm missing what you're saying about a Lesson to be learned...