Is "Cal bred" a real knock on the horse?

[iceknight]

I mean, yes there are statistics. But then we all know what they say of stats.


Does correlation indicate causation?

Does the fact that the stallion covered a mare in one state over the other really matter? If that really matters how come horses bred in states like PA sometimes have been whooping the fields and becoming forces to reckon with..

Most horses are bred in KY or FL, that is just how the industry is set up. So breeding statistics do not really matter imo in deciding who will or will not win the Derby.

Comments welcome, especially from those who have been in the breeding business.

[Edward DeVere]

A good horse can come from anywhere.

Even California. :o)

[nijinski]

Being Kentucky has the big breeding industry as you pointed out . Most will
cpme from there . I don't see why a horse foaled in another state can't
do it , and they have .

Regret ( NJ )
Lil E TEE ( Pa )
Assault ( TX )

[SecretAgentMan]

Pa: Lil E Tee, Smarty Jones

Florida: Silver Charm

NY: Funny Cide

Cali: Indian Charlie, Free House

Canada: Victory Gallop

These are some of the best 3 year olds I've seen race that werent bred in KY

[trifecta]

Northern Dancer - Canada

[nijinski]

Our most well known , Secretariat , not bred in Kentucky . Virginia bred .

[taxicab]

There was a horse bred in Virginia that could run a little bit.....

[nijinski]

There was a horse bred in Virginia that could run a little bit.....
LOL , we both posted about him at the same time .

[taxicab]

LOL , we both posted about him at the same time .

Great minds think alike Nijinski.... :cool:
I'll beat ya to the next one.
Affirmed in FLA. :)

[nijinski]

Great minds think alike Nijinski.... :cool:
I'll beat ya to the next one.
Affirmed in FLA. :)

Awesome , a few of the TC winners not foaled in Kentucky either .

and yes they do :)

[Tall One]

This thread is a reminder how important the dam side of the pedigree is.

[horses4courses]

Most of the nation is well aware that nothing good ever comes out of California....... :rolleyes:

[lamboguy]

i don't think California has anything to do with it, the horse don't know what state he was bred in.


viewing the Los Al work for the very first time, 100 times over, i really don't see what was so great about it that every expert sees. i never saw the prior works either, and don't know how the horse came back to the barn so in no way do i claim to be an expert on this particular journey. i score that work as mediocre at best being 3000 miles away from the horse. for me its enough to either sit out the race or look for something else.

[iceknight]

Being Kentucky has the big breeding industry as you pointed out . Most will
cpme from there . I don't see why a horse foaled in another state can't
do it , and they have .

Regret ( NJ )
Lil E TEE ( Pa )
Assault ( TX ) thanks for the comments guys~V. and while it is not the derby we have had Princess of Sylmar (also PA bred) doing quite well..

Back to the Derby discussion, I am liking the Holiday horses right now

[RacingFan1992]

The Triple Crown horses have been bred in Virginia (Secretariat), Texas (Assault), Florida (Affirmed), and Kentucky (Sir Barton, Gallant Fox, Omaha, War Admiral, Whirlaway, Count Fleet, Citation, Seattle Slew). The record of a horse winning the Triple Crown that comes from the North, East or West is not too good.

[SecretAgentMan]

i don't think California has anything to do with it, the horse don't know what state he was bred in.


viewing the Los Al work for the very first time, 100 times over, i really don't see what was so great about it that every expert sees. i never saw the prior works either, and don't know how the horse came back to the barn so in no way do i claim to be an expert on this particular journey. i score that work as mediocre at best being 3000 miles away from the horse. for me its enough to either sit out the race or look for something else.


Nothing spectacular showed up on Chromes workouts......then again, the trainer knows what to get out of the horse in a workout & what to expect from the horse. Too many people put workouts on a pedastool.............picking a derby winner can consist of looking at 20 different ways/directions on how to cap it, that's why it pays so well in exotics, its so difficult to figure out.

[Bill Cullen]

Does correlation indicate causation?

Correlation is a necessary pre-condition for causality but is never sufficicent in and of itself to prove causality.

[iceknight]

Well that lays that useless statistic to rest "No cal bred has won since 1962". Where the stallion does his business is no indicator of the class of the progeny.

What is more, this is about the third time (that I know clearly in my little knowledge of this field) that a "cheap" horse has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. Seattle Slew, I'll Have Another (35k?), now CC.

Was Funny Cide considered a bargain purchase?

[SecretAgentMan]

Real Quiet was bought for around $26,000 but Pegram spent some money to fix his legs up.

Chromes story is the Little Engine That Could, Davi & Goliath, etc.....

[Swale]

Real Quiet was just $17k.

Mine that Bird was $9500.

And Canonero II was bought for $1,200! :D

[Shemp Howard]

The Storm CAT male line has never won the Ky Derby, 0-44 by my count, with millions spent trying.

[luisbe]

This thread is a reminder how important the dam side of the pedigree is.

Of course, dam is the class of the individual.

[clocker7]

Of course, dam is the class of the individual.

I have just been looking over his bottom pedigree line, and the collection of dams is very modest for quite awhile. Some notes:

1. It took going back to the 1880s to Wanda before I saw one that I recognized. The next one was Sally Ward in the 1850s.

2. American bred all the way back to 1765 (!) The next one before that was Selima (!!)

3. One of the middle ones was Uncle's Lassie, dam of KD winner Clyde Van Dusen.

4. His dam's granddam was Chase the Dream (b. 1984), who was trained by D. Wayne Lukas. Meaning, of course, that he is screwed and about to keel over any minute. :D

[Mad Scientist]

Look at it this way. Chrome was bred at some farm in a California and that makes him a cal bred. Now if they would have put Chromes mommy and daddy on a plane and flew them to a farm in ky and put on a little Marvin Gaye and baby chrome was conceived than he would have been a ky bred.

So you think that somebody showed baby chrome a map of the United States when he was born. It means nothing that he is a cal bred.

The fact there have been more ky breds win the derby is just a statistical product of there being more ky breds than anything else.

If you got a big box and filled it up with a 100 ping pong balls and 80 of them were red and 20 of them were blue and than you randomly picked out 10 balls the chances are most of them would be red and that's not because the red balls are of a better quality but it's just because there was more of them to begin with.

A lot of betters don't understand this simple concept but that's a good thing because this is a pari mutuel sport and good money can be made when others just don't get it.

Hope that helps ....

[raybo]

Some people certainly like to"knock" a horse from California, but that just shows their ignorance. I personally don't care where a horse is from, if his adjusted numbers match up, he/she can win anywhere that the surface and distance suits them, and some places where it doesn't.