Late Toteboard Action

[JeffH]

I'm sure there's a thread that addresses this subject, but I couldn't find it.
What I'm wondering is if there are any studies of late action of the tote. For example, what is the average % bet down of horses at 2 minutes to post compared to final odds? Any help is appreciated!

[horses4courses]

I'm sure there's a thread that addresses this subject, but I couldn't find it.
What I'm wondering is if there are any studies of late action of the tote. For example, what is the average % bet down of horses at 2 minutes to post compared to final odds? Any help is appreciated!

I haven't looked closely at late tote action for some time.
However, I do know that "conditional wagering" on ADWs is a potential game changer.
Large wagers that are programmed to be accepted as late as zero minutes to post can dramatically change the odds, and are often conducted so late that it gives bettors virtually no time to react.

I'm not saying that these types of wagers are necessarily "smart money".
They can just change the board in a hurry and, if they cut into your profits, can be a bit frustrating.

[JeffH]

I have seen the conditional wagering feature, which is a great idea. I have a spreadsheet that I just made that compares my odds line to the tote odds. If I'm at the OTB, I was thinking of deducting a percentage of the odds at 2 minutes to post, and comparing those odds to my odds to determine overlays. For example, Horse A is 3-1 at 2 minutes to post. My idea was to take 20 or 25% off of that to account for late action. In this example using 20%, 3-1 becomes 2-1 (3*.2=.6) (3-.6=2.4 rounded down). I know this isn't perfect; but it seems if I do error, it will be on the side of value instead of action.