4/30 Churchill Downs selections

[letswastemoney]

Churchill has turned into a bad deal for most of you. But, it's scheduled to rain, and I love wet track handicapping.

Race 1

:2: Lungs (4/1) has looked like a different horse in his last two starts. If those races are believable, he could win in a hand ride in this spot. The most impressive part about breaking 90 twice in a row on TimeformUS comes from how he's done so at two different racetracks, although one of them was on synthetic and the other Mountaineer.

The trainer/jockey combo wins at a 25% clip out of 20.

[letswastemoney]

Race 2

Expect :3: Pearl of a Girl (2/1) to be sent to the lead and win in a hand ride. The low speed figures from last year are meaningless. She was only two years old back then.

:5: Jogget (7/2) will win if the top one fails. Upgrade her if it rains too.

[letswastemoney]

Race 3

On paper, :5: Albelha Maestra (9/5) has the best numbers.

It is notable some of these have beaten her in the past. Even under her current trainer, :4: Miss Ziggy (5/1) has finished ahead of Albelha Maestra, so I'll make Miss Ziggy the second option.

[letswastemoney]

Race 4

If the track is dry :1: Demure Halo (2/1) owns the best numbers and pace advantage. But, she's 2-0-0-0 on a wet track.

:5: Bonita Muncea (5/1) is good on a sloppy track. Her connections are low percentage though.

Not a very fun race. Best to avoid if possible.

[letswastemoney]

Race 5

The two horses that will fight for the lead are :2: Rowdy Miss (4/1) and :7: Southern Symphony (4/1).

One of them should prevail, but I don't like this race too much either.

[letswastemoney]

Race 6

Another somewhat difficult race with question marks.

How far can :1: Lucky Eight (4/1) take them? He hits the wall in the late stages of the race usually. At the same time, his early speed looks too dangerous to ignore.

Maybe :5: Dixie Fiction (5/1) can come from behind, but it's notable her worst start came on wet dirt if it rains.

[letswastemoney]

Race 7

I doubt this race will be run on turf.

:4: Dance Again (4/1), :13: Cookie (6/1) and :1a: Elusive Fate (6/1) are the best dirt horses.

:12: Gigglin Gal (12/1) can hit the board.

[letswastemoney]

Race 8

If the track is wet, :8: Joedini (3/1) has a nice pedigree for wet dirt.

Otherwise, :4: Doubly Distinct (5/1) probably takes them wire to wire.

[letswastemoney]

Race 9

If you want to beat Departing, :4: Pass The Dice (4/1) will not stray too far off the pace and can handle rain.

[letswastemoney]

Race 10

:10: Angle (5/1) is a half to Demarcation and should handle an off the turf affair. Although this one's lack of speed hurts. Maybe the field is weak enough that it will not matter.

I'm not sure who else to take. There are dirt winners out of :13: Cause to Celebrate's (30/1) siblings and the favorites do not look too exciting...

[letswastemoney]

This card wasn't as appealing as I hoped. Maybe I will not be playing it after all!

[letswastemoney]

In Race 7, since it's on turf I may try :3: Zadina (currently 13/1).

I've had luck with her more than once in the past. Her speed figures are low though.

[letswastemoney]

In Race 7, since it's on turf I may try :3: Zadina (currently 13/1).

I've had luck with her more than once in the past. Her speed figures are low though.
Didn't run a step. I knew this was a poor card for me to try.