The Cali Chrome Dilemma

[glengarry]

I know there is a separate thread on CC, but it's all over the place. I am hoping to get some authoritative opinions either way. Is anyone feeling strongly that he's a pitch, a single, or just a definite use. At some point, at least for me, it's time to find the horse I want to use on top. Always found the underneath numbers tougher in the Derby. We all know the issues. Some I find very valid. Some I am not concerned about. Interested in hearing the thought process from those that have one.

As for where I am, one work over Churchill was all I would have needed. The trainer chose the path he was comfortable with. Now I am in guess mode, which I hate to do on a favorite in this of all races. I don't want to make him a single, even though he just looks like the real class of his generation. Like Holy Bull, who threw in a clunker on a surface he obviously hated.

[horses4courses]

I know there is a separate thread on CC, but it's all over the place. I am hoping to get some authoritative opinions either way. Is anyone feeling strongly that he's a pitch, a single, or just a definite use. At some point, at least for me, it's time to find the horse I want to use on top. Always found the underneath numbers tougher in the Derby. We all know the issues. Some I find very valid. Some I am not concerned about. Interested in hearing the thought process from those that have one.

As for where I am, one work over Churchill was all I would have needed. The trainer chose the path he was comfortable with. Now I am in guess mode, which I hate to do on a favorite in this of all races. I don't want to make him a single, even though he just looks like the real class of his generation. Like Holy Bull, who threw in a clunker on a surface he obviously hated.

So difficult to assess his chances.
I feel anyone trying to give you a definitive answer should be pitching snake oil. Where I draw the line here is betting value. California Chrome won't offer any. Ballparking his chances of winning at less than 20%, you won't see 4-1 on race day. He will likely be less than 3-1. Unbettable, imo.

Will I be rooting for him?
You bet I will....... :ThmbUp:

[goatchaser]

Here's my thought.....No Matter how Dominate a horse looks coming into the Kentucky Derby, there never a single on this day. He may win. But more often than not they lose. Anything can happen in a 20 horse field. Being a West Coaster and a fan this Horse. I do hope he wins.

[BettinBilly]

I will be betting on Chrome. I will also be hedging with another horse at a longer shot, and splitting the bet, as well as an exotic I have been working on today.

Chrome is a mystery to me, however, I hope he wins. And I hope he takes the Crown. I've got some questions on him that concern me, but as others say, in a 20 horse field, anything can happen.

[Tom]

He's an underlay.

[ArlJim78]

of course we'll only know the answer on Saturday, but here is how I assess the surface issue. Chrome has won stakes races on Del Mar poly, Hollywood cushiontrack, and SA dirt, and has been training at LosAl for several months. I take this to perhaps indicate that he is fairly insensitive to the surface. Think about how many horses tend to exhibit a clear preference either for AW or dirt, in this case you don't even have that so why would the CD dirt throw him out of kilter? I could be wrong this is just how I think about it.

He'll jog around Churchill for four days as well so it's not like he won't have some time to acclimate. consider all the other horses shipping in and working at Churchill, do we really ever learn anything terribly definitive from those works? Sometimes maybe but I think too much is made of it for the derby.

[SecretAgentMan]

I find more of a problem with Wicked Strong, horse hates Florida but likes New York, I would be worried backing him because he's already proven he can't run outside of NY.

The trainer of Chrome is happy with how he's training going into the derby so its all good with me. If Chrome was winning his past 3 to 4 races like Wild Red was by a neck or head seemingly all out, i would stay way clear of him but he's winning in hand & galloping out nicely.

Whether he's 4-1 or 2-1, for me, a winning ticket is better than a losing ticket with a 15-1 shot trying to get value & coming up short.

When you over analyze a race is when you get caught up in questioning your bet, whether its Chrome or any other horse.......just analyze the race to the best of your ability & place your wager or don't bet at all & enjoy the race as a fan.

[depalma113]

California Chrome towers over this field. Anything above 5-2 is a gift.

[glengarry]

I find more of a problem with Wicked Strong, horse hates Florida but likes New York, I would be worried backing him because he's already proven he can't run outside of NY.

The trainer of Chrome is happy with how he's training going into the derby so its all good with me. If Chrome was winning his past 3 to 4 races like Wild Red was by a neck or head seemingly all out, i would stay way clear of him but he's winning in hand & galloping out nicely.

Whether he's 4-1 or 2-1, for me, a winning ticket is better than a losing ticket with a 15-1 shot trying to get value & coming up short.

When you over analyze a race is when you get caught up in questioning your bet, whether its Chrome or any other horse.......just analyze the race to the best of your ability & place your wager or don't bet at all & enjoy the race as a fan.

My issue with Wicked strong is demeanor. He got hot before his 2 tries in Florida, and threw in a clunker then an OK effort off a tough trip. Assuming he can only win in NY because of his Florida efforts is a huge mistake. This horse can run and is doing great. While concerned about how he will handle the crowd, at least I am looking at somewhere between 6 and 8 to one. I have no such concerns with CC. Also, I think this race is demanding for the horses and the handicappers. Especially when nothing is jumping off the page.

[horses4courses]

of course we'll only know the answer on Saturday, but here is how I assess the surface issue. Chrome has won stakes races on Del Mar poly, Hollywood cushiontrack, and SA dirt, and has been training at LosAl for several months. I take this to perhaps indicate that he is fairly insensitive to the surface. Think about how many horses tend to exhibit a clear preference either for AW or dirt, in this case you don't even have that so why would the CD dirt throw him out of kilter? I could be wrong this is just how I think about it.

He'll jog around Churchill for four days as well so it's not like he won't have some time to acclimate. consider all the other horses shipping in and working at Churchill, do we really ever learn anything terribly definitive from those works? Sometimes maybe but I think too much is made of it for the derby.

Good point.
He does seem to be fairly versatile when it comes to surfaces.

For anyone interested in betting CC, I would suggest this.
Wait until the post parade, if you can.

The last thing you want to see is a lot of kidney sweat, etc., and any signs of an upset racehorse.
If he's strutting his stuff down to post, then he will be very hard to beat.

[precocity]

Here's my thought.....No Matter how Dominate a horse looks coming into the Kentucky Derby, there never a single on this day. He may win. But more often than not they lose. Anything can happen in a 20 horse field. Being a West Coaster and a fan this Horse. I do hope he wins.
anything can happen last year golden soul? hell did that horse win or hit the board after the derby? now on the win seems like CC has it all wrapped up? the last big hype was big brown but my intuition on the hype was he was going to win nobody was going to beat big brown! don't feel that way about CC?

[lamboguy]

there is no law that says you have to bet the derby. i am going to study the horses coming out of the Wood. but the way i look at it, there are 19 horses running against CHROME. my most likely move is to watch the Derby and not wager on it. if CHROME wins, i can bet him in the Preakness for some large money to make up what i might have made on him in Louisville.

i will be betting on TRES BELLE tuesday in Louisville, and then Friday i am going in with STORM OF THE CENTURY after they draw the race later this morning. both of those horses are not 10 times better bets than CHROME, they are 100 times better.

as a fan of this sport, i will root for CALIFORNIA CHROME to win saturday bet or no bet.

[lamboguy]

there is no law that says you have to bet the derby. i am going to study the horses coming out of the Wood. but the way i look at it, there are 19 horses running against CHROME. my most likely move is to watch the Derby and not wager on it. if CHROME wins, i can bet him in the Preakness for some large money to make up what i might have made on him in Louisville.

i will be betting on TRES BELLE tuesday in Louisville, and then Friday i am going in with STORM OF THE CENTURY after they draw the race later this morning. both of those horses are not 10 times better bets than CHROME, they are 100 times better.

as a fan of this sport, i will root for CALIFORNIA CHROME to win saturday bet or no bet.TRES BELLE gets the job done paying $4.20

they just drew Oaks day and STORMY drew post position #3 in the 6th race, i like that post for this guy, don't know the rest of the field but it might not matter in this case

[horses4courses]

there is no law that says you have to bet the derby. i am going to study the horses coming out of the Wood. but the way i look at it, there are 19 horses running against CHROME. my most likely move is to watch the Derby and not wager on it. if CHROME wins, i can bet him in the Preakness for some large money to make up what i might have made on him in Louisville.

i will be betting on TRES BELLE tuesday in Louisville, and then Friday i am going in with STORM OF THE CENTURY after they draw the race later this morning. both of those horses are not 10 times better bets than CHROME, they are 100 times better.

as a fan of this sport, i will root for CALIFORNIA CHROME to win saturday bet or no bet.

What he said :ThmbUp:

[glengarry]

there is no law that says you have to bet the derby. i am going to study the horses coming out of the Wood. but the way i look at it, there are 19 horses running against CHROME. my most likely move is to watch the Derby and not wager on it. if CHROME wins, i can bet him in the Preakness for some large money to make up what i might have made on him in Louisville.

i will be betting on TRES BELLE tuesday in Louisville, and then Friday i am going in with STORM OF THE CENTURY after they draw the race later this morning. both of those horses are not 10 times better bets than CHROME, they are 100 times better.

as a fan of this sport, i will root for CALIFORNIA CHROME to win saturday bet or no bet.

Very good call on Tres Belle. I don't mind taking a favorite that was an easy winner in a short field. Never in doubt.

[classhandicapper]

He has been the most impressive major prep winner, but he has also had relatively soft trips doing it. I wouldn't put up much of a fight with anyone that thinks he's the most likely winner. But I think he'll probably be an underlay that I won't use UNLESS I am hooking him up with a huge overlay elsewhere in the race.

[plainolebill]

I'm in the 'beat me' camp. The Derby separates the men from the boys, most of the horses running Saturday will never win a race beyond 9f, we just don't know who that is in advance.

CC is not only going to need to find the stamina to stay 10f, he's going to need to get a trip.

I'll do what Class suggest he might do, play him on top of a few big longshots but most of my tickets won't have him on top and no way I'm betting him to win.

[taxicab]

I have nothing but respect for California Chrome.
I think he's the most likely winner of the race.
But....
In a 20 horse field I will never make a win bet on a horse under 9-2.
P-3/4 speaking I will use him for 3 or 4 units.
Every other horse I carry in the various P-3/4's I will use for 1 unit.

[glengarry]

I could already see this being an "I told you so" for CC. If he runs poorly, there will be those screaming how obvious it was that a Cal Bred, easy trip getting, California track loving, and no works over CD horse would have no chance. If he dominates, the CC fans will point out how he towered over the field. Reports are that he looked a little stiff jogging over CD today. If he doesn't look better tomorrow, and especially if he draws poorly, then I will downgrade him accordingly. My hope is he draws inside. Then I will feel confident about using him just a little.

[Smarty Cide]

just read a report on his jog today it read "california chrome sure isnt the prettiest mover"

c'mon really? lets get to the race already, when we start looking at how they move we are over thinking it..


even worse is how my dumbass is sitting here like oh my god he wasnt "moving well" and im betting every penny i bet on this race with him on top


only saving grace is i have pretty good size futures bets on like half the field outside of california chrome... weird how that worked out

[Thebigguy]

just read a report on his jog today it read "california chrome sure isnt the prettiest mover"

c'mon really? lets get to the race already, when we start looking at how they move we are over thinking it..


even worse is how my dumbass is sitting here like oh my god he wasnt "moving well" and im betting every penny i bet on this race with him on top


only saving grace is i have pretty good size futures bets on like half the field outside of california chrome... weird how that worked out
Because you're all in on a giant underlay.

[Smarty Cide]

Because you're all in on a giant underlay.


guilty as charged.... just can't see a reason to go against him... might as well set the money on fire and throw it over your shoulder

[BlueChip@DRF]

guilty as charged.... just can't see a reason to go against him... might as well set the money on fire and throw it over your shoulder

I'll be standing right behind you with a bucket of water.

[lamboguy]

Very good call on Tres Belle. I don't mind taking a favorite that was an easy winner in a short field. Never in doubt.the other horse i like should be bettter, better price anyway its a bigger field and the linesmaker made him 5-1.

for the record, i would have a tough time betting on CALIFORNIA CHROME from a good post at 3-1, and he will be under 2-1. but i don't really like anything else in the race so i might just sit on my hands and wait for the Preakness. i like betting these 3 year old races but i am not going to force anything.

[ArlJim78]

I could already see this being an "I told you so" for CC. If he runs poorly, there will be those screaming how obvious it was that a Cal Bred, easy trip getting, California track loving, and no works over CD horse would have no chance. If he dominates, the CC fans will point out how he towered over the field. Reports are that he looked a little stiff jogging over CD today. If he doesn't look better tomorrow, and especially if he draws poorly, then I will downgrade him accordingly. My hope is he draws inside. Then I will feel confident about using him just a little.
Oh come on the "I told you so's" are a sure thing, and will go on for weeks after the derby. plenty of heated rhetoric will follow regardless of how it turns out. It's a yearly ritual just like the derby.:lol:

[BlinkersOn]

I have not decided yet whether I will be playing a trifecta or trying the superfecta, but I do know I will be keying on California Chrome. It's the first time in a very long time I've felt this confident about a horse winning. I think he towers above the competition, and everyone else is running for second. I've narrowed the field to 10, and that is going to depend a lot on post positions coming out today where I use them. Because it's a horse race, it's always a gamble. CC could stumble or go to his knees coming out of the gate, but the game is about chances, and I'm willing to take it.

I wish you all luck with your derby picks, but this one for me, anyway, is a no brainer.

[Smarty Cide]

I have not decided yet whether I will be playing a trifecta or trying the superfecta, but I do know I will be keying on California Chrome. It's the first time in a very long time I've felt this confident about a horse winning. I think he towers above the competition, and everyone else is running for second. I've narrowed the field to 10, and that is going to depend a lot on post positions coming out today where I use them. Because it's a horse race, it's always a gamble. CC could stumble or go to his knees coming out of the gate, but the game is about chances, and I'm willing to take it.

I wish you all luck with your derby picks, but this one for me, anyway, is a no brainer.



well said :ThmbUp:

[fmhealth]

Why CC won't win. At least according to the WSJ.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304163604579531902827207322?KEYWOR DS=derby&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB1000 1424052702304163604579531902827207322.html%3FKEYWO RDS%3Dderby

[Smarty Cide]

wait it says a cal bred won in 1962 i thought the last cal bred to win was swaps in 1955


interesting article though really makes you think

[ArlJim78]

the WSJ article is tripe. favorites don't win, millionaires don't win, cal-breds don't win, yadda yadda yadda. that's not handicapping and those aren't valid reasons why the horse won't win. the only half way salient point was regarding pace.

[BettinBilly]

The article fails to mention one very important point. In Horse Racing, the only certainty is the uncertain. You can't draw connecting lines from coincidental issues and conclude that according to these connecting circumstances, Chrome probably won't win. No one knows for certain.

I'm placing a Win bet and a Box Exacta on Chrome and one other. I'm also hedging on two long shots I like.

We won't know until Saturday if we are right or wrong, with "certainty". ;)

Can't wait for Saturday.

[Smarty Cide]

yeah saturday is a great day thru and thru... just the whole day... its all great

[onefast99]

yeah saturday is a great day thru and thru... just the whole day... its all great
In less than 45 minutes you will know where CC is breaking from...will you bet the ranch if he lands post 8, I see him getting that post so here you go "2000.00 across the board on the :8: " good luck!

[Smarty Cide]

is 8 the ideal post for him?

can this be watched online?

[onefast99]

is 8 the ideal post for him?

can this be watched online?
You will have to sign up it's free enter your cable company password and provider.

http://stream.nbcsports.com/liveextra/

[SecretAgentMan]

I'm watching the the hour up to the running of last years derby with Orb & the hype & hoopla they put into talking to all the trainers as they're walking on the track, etc is crazy......usually I never watch the pre-show & I'm glad I don't.......

People can really start to 2nd guess their picks watching it. Just watching it now waiting until the draw starts.

My sports book has wagers that you can make on several horses & whether they will get post 1-3, 4-10, 11-17, 18-20........now that's sick!

[BlueChip@DRF]

Is there a delay with the audio? It looks like a Japanese show translated into English because of the unsynched lips.

[Smarty Cide]

You will have to sign up it's free enter your cable company password and provider.

http://stream.nbcsports.com/liveextra/



did someone turn their mics off?

[SecretAgentMan]

I'm hearing everything normal

[BettinBilly]

Wow, Vicars In trouble drawing the rail.

[BettinBilly]

Wicked Strong gets outside post. Hmmm. That's a slight kink in my Handicapping Slinky.

Samraat is six

[BettinBilly]

Position 5 for Chrome - Same as his SA Derby position

Hopportunity is position 11 so he is happily in the middle

[Mystic]

Chromes gallop today.

http://www.hrtv.com/videos/derby-gallop-california-chrome-43014/

[Some_One]

The issue with CC is visualized by Blingo and Game on Dude earlier this year. How did Blingo destroy GoD in the San Antonio but then get destroyed himself in the Big Cap? I think, like GoD, he needs a hard fast track to run his race and he won't get that on the east coast.

[plainolebill]

The issue with CC is visualized by Blingo and Game on Dude earlier this year. How did Blingo destroy GoD in the San Antonio but then get destroyed himself in the Big Cap? I think, like GoD, he needs a hard fast track to run his race and he won't get that on the east coast.

Not loving on CC but he won at DMR and Hol so I'm not so sure your theory holds water.

[Some_One]

Not loving on CC but he won at DMR and Hol so I'm not so sure your theory holds water.

A bunch of sprints, if he got 2 turns there then I would agree with you. Sire AWD of only 6.4, 2nd worst in the field.

[Viruss]

CC looks like a solid Favorite.

Danza last race was strong stocking the pace exploding down the lane

Wildcat Red looks like the horse with Heart never quitting.

Candy Boy is my longshot I liked his last going 3 wide around both turns 3rd race he should improve.

This is my thoughts on the derby. Good luck to you all Earl J

[PaceAdvantage]

There is no dilemma here with me regarding CC. I will whole heartedly leave him off the top spots of all my tickets. I don't think he makes the exacta, and is the epitome of a hearty bet-against.

I'm not a hater. I hope he wins the Triple Crown. But I'm not going to bet my money on him. No way.

I like the Wood Memorial. I think it was a tougher race than anything California Chrome has faced and my picks will reflect that, along with the perceived value I am getting in betting against the favorite here.

My initial picks are as follows (value line):

:20: Wicked Strong (7-2)
:3: Uncle Sigh (6-1)
:6: Samraat (6-1)
:5: California Chrome (7-1)

[glengarry]

There is no dilemma here with me regarding CC. I will whole heartedly leave him off the top spots of all my tickets. I don't think he makes the exacta, and is the epitome of a hearty bet-against.

I'm not a hater. I hope he wins the Triple Crown. But I'm not going to bet my money on him. No way.

I like the Wood Memorial. I think it was a tougher race than anything California Chrome has faced and my picks will reflect that, along with the perceived value I am getting in betting against the favorite here.

My initial picks are as follows (value line):

:20: Wicked Strong (7-2)
:3: Uncle Sigh (6-1)
:6: Samraat (6-1)
:5: California Chrome (7-1)

The dilemma is over for me. Pitching Chrome completely. Watched his races over and over. He is headstrong until he sees daylight in front of him. Then he relaxes. With his slight gate issues, there is a good chance that a few will cross over on him early. He won't be a happy horse. You fight the rider in the Derby, you are a goner. If he drew outside and was able to stalk 3 or 4 others from outside of them, he would worry me. Drawing the 5 is bad news. CC also not exactly looking like a winner over the track. Sherman rolled the dice staying in Cali. I'm betting it comes up snake eyes. If I'm wrong, I can deal with throwing out a the derby favorite that may have too many things to overcome. Now the hard part-finding the winner.

[onefast99]

Wildcat Red
Wicked Strong

Thus far those are the only two I like. I'm going to agree with PA the Wood was a very tough race and CC may be a solid horse on the Westcoast but I don't see him winning the Derby. Goos luck everyone!

[SecretAgentMan]

There is no dilemma here with me regarding CC. I will whole heartedly leave him off the top spots of all my tickets. I don't think he makes the exacta, and is the epitome of a hearty bet-against.

I'm not a hater. I hope he wins the Triple Crown. But I'm not going to bet my money on him. No way.

I like the Wood Memorial. I think it was a tougher race than anything California Chrome has faced and my picks will reflect that, along with the perceived value I am getting in betting against the favorite here.

My initial picks are as follows (value line):

:20: Wicked Strong (7-2)
:3: Uncle Sigh (6-1)
:6: Samraat (6-1)
:5: California Chrome (7-1)

No offense but I don't think your top 3 hit the board.......Wicked Strong jumped like 18 points in 1 race & that's a quick toss for me entering the derby.

[bks]

There is no dilemma here with me regarding CC. I will whole heartedly leave him off the top spots of all my tickets. I don't think he makes the exacta, and is the epitome of a hearty bet-against.

I'm not a hater. I hope he wins the Triple Crown. But I'm not going to bet my money on him. No way.

I like the Wood Memorial. I think it was a tougher race than anything California Chrome has faced and my picks will reflect that, along with the perceived value I am getting in betting against the favorite here.

My initial picks are as follows (value line):

:20: Wicked Strong (7-2)
:3: Uncle Sigh (6-1)
:6: Samraat (6-1)
:5: California Chrome (7-1)

Disagree fairly strongly. If one takes your premise seriously, then CC couldn't be a bet for you under any circumstances since no matter how well he ran, if the competition he faced was judged to be inferior than that of the other preps it counts as a strike against him. I think that's faulty reasoning. CC is still facing inferior competition Saturday. The far bigger problem is for the rest of the field, because none of them (except Candy Boy) have faced a horse like CC.

He's the lone horse who has dominated his competition, kept his victory margins large as the distances have increase, and also run faster figures than every other horse he hasn't competed against. I'm disappointed Hoppertunity isn't in the race, because I think we have something of a replay of 2012, when the California horses were vastly superior to the NY and Florida ones. I think Hoppertunity would have beaten your top three as well. I'll move Candy Boy up some, but it's more of a scramble to fill out the super now.

[wiffleball whizz]

There is no dilemma here with me regarding CC. I will whole heartedly leave him off the top spots of all my tickets. I don't think he makes the exacta, and is the epitome of a hearty bet-against.

I'm not a hater. I hope he wins the Triple Crown. But I'm not going to bet my money on him. No way.

I like the Wood Memorial. I think it was a tougher race than anything California Chrome has faced and my picks will reflect that, along with the perceived value I am getting in betting against the favorite here.

My initial picks are as follows (value line):

:20: Wicked Strong (7-2)
:3: Uncle Sigh (6-1)
:6: Samraat (6-1)
:5: California Chrome (7-1)


Imagine if it comes out 20-3-6......????

The home screen with the page of analysis and selections will prob stay up there till the breeders cup!!!!!!!!!.....wouldn't see headlines on there for 7 months :lol: :lol: :lol:

[precocity]

Imagine if it comes out 20-3-6......????

The home screen with the page of analysis and selections will prob stay up there till the breeders cup!!!!!!!!!.....wouldn't see headlines on there for 7 months :lol: :lol: :lol:
:lol: what up whizz?

[depalma113]

Wildcat Red
Wicked Strong

Thus far those are the only two I like. I'm going to agree with PA the Wood was a very tough race and CC may be a solid horse on the Westcoast but I don't see him winning the Derby. Goos luck everyone!


Did anyone see what happened to In Trouble in Louisiana? Samraat and Uncle Sigh were not flattered and than they get crushed by a Florida also ran on the wrong lead.

[wiffleball whizz]

:lol: what up whizz?

Whizz is back!!!!!!!

Off topic just remembered About you and burnsey....I forgot to mail out his gift card and forgot u had one coming :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

I don't want to see a football for 5 more months!!!

[precocity]

Whizz is back!!!!!!!

Off topic just remembered About you and burnsey....I forgot to mail out his gift card and forgot u had one coming :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

I don't want to see a football for 5 more months!!!
:rolleyes: :rolleyes: GOT A NEW ADDRESS WILL PM YOU LATER ON THAT PLAYA! AND WHO YOU LIKE IN THE DERBY?

[ten2oneormore]

There is no dilemma here with me regarding CC. I will whole heartedly leave him off the top spots of all my tickets. I don't think he makes the exacta, and is the epitome of a hearty bet-against.

I'm not a hater. I hope he wins the Triple Crown. But I'm not going to bet my money on him. No way.

I like the Wood Memorial. I think it was a tougher race than anything California Chrome has faced and my picks will reflect that, along with the perceived value I am getting in betting against the favorite here.

My initial picks are as follows (value line):

:20: Wicked Strong (7-2)
:3: Uncle Sigh (6-1)
:6: Samraat (6-1)
:5: California Chrome (7-1)


Agreed

Taking into account Wicked Strong's pace figs in the Remson it wasn't too big of a jump forward in the Wood that natural progression can't explain.His two GP races are tosses and only helped to dirty his form.

Hard to take a short number on anyone in here though.Seems like half the field can win.

[PaceAdvantage]

Disagree fairly strongly. If one takes your premise seriously, then CC couldn't be a bet for you under any circumstances since no matter how well he ran, if the competition he faced was judged to be inferior than that of the other preps it counts as a strike against him. I think that's faulty reasoning. CC is still facing inferior competition Saturday. The far bigger problem is for the rest of the field, because none of them (except Candy Boy) have faced a horse like CC.

He's the lone horse who has dominated his competition, kept his victory margins large as the distances have increase, and also run faster figures than every other horse he hasn't competed against. I'm disappointed Hoppertunity isn't in the race, because I think we have something of a replay of 2012, when the California horses were vastly superior to the NY and Florida ones. I think Hoppertunity would have beaten your top three as well. I'll move Candy Boy up some, but it's more of a scramble to fill out the super now.CC hasn't ran faster figures by the figures I use. I'm not judging CC solely on his competition. I'm judging him by his figures, the competition he faced, the fact that his last race was over a speed favoring strip, further enhancing that figure, and the fact that there are 4-6 other horses faster than him early and the fact that his closing numbers are nothing to write home about.

In short, he's a solid bet-against given his expected price.

If I'm wrong, that's fine. I'm wrong a lot in this game. I could be 100% right about CC and still lose on Saturday...

[SecretAgentMan]

Only guarantee in horse racing is the racetrack will receive their percentage.

The clockers & the experts tweeting about what horses are having the best workouts, etc don't have a good feel on whose gonna win this year IMO.

IMO, if Chrome has a good break & places himself in a good spot, he should win.

[precocity]

Only guarantee in horse racing is the racetrack will receive their percentage.

The clockers & the experts tweeting about what horses are having the best workouts, etc don't have a good feel on whose gonna win this year IMO.

IMO, if Chrome has a good break & places himself in a good spot, he should win.
ehhhhh :16: might I HAVE ANOTHER ON HIS AZZ? JUST SAYING...

[bks]

CC hasn't ran faster figures by the figures I use. I'm not judging CC solely on his competition. I'm judging him by his figures, the competition he faced, the fact that his last race was over a speed favoring strip, further enhancing that figure, and the fact that there are 4-6 other horses faster than him early and the fact that his closing numbers are nothing to write home about.

Fair enough. But he doesn't win his races like a horse benefiting from a speed bias to me. One reason his closing figures aren't great is because he hasn't been asked to run during the last 1/8 of a race in more than 6 months.

[glengarry]

Fair enough. But he doesn't win his races like a horse benefiting from a speed bias to me. One reason his closing figures aren't great is because he hasn't been asked to run during the last 1/8 of a race in more than 6 months.

He's got a point there, Williamson.

[lamboguy]

TVG is giving away 4-1 locked in on CALIFORNIA CHROME. that's a great deal on that horse if you are betting him.

[SecretAgentMan]

TVG is giving away 4-1 locked in on CALIFORNIA CHROME. that's a great deal on that horse if you are betting him.


Isn't the max bet allowed $25?

[BettinBilly]

Yes, $25 is the limit. Must be a Win bet (obviously), and you have to place the bet between 12:00 NOON and 1:00 PM EASTERN time May 2nd (Friday) on TVG.com.

[glengarry]

Yes, $25 is the limit. Must be a Win bet (obviously), and you have to place the bet between 12:00 NOON and 1:00 PM EASTERN time May 2nd (Friday) on TVG.com.

They offered something like 5 to 2 on Game On Dude when he was off the ticket 2 starts back in California. Hmm.

[SecretAgentMan]

They offered something like 5 to 2 on Game On Dude when he was off the ticket 2 starts back in California. Hmm.


Thinking its a trap? When it looks toogood to be true, you know what to do......or maybe they are trying to hype up our next Triple Crown winner? LoL!

Why is Los Alamitos all of a sudden having a G2 or G3 $500,000 stakes race? Because Chrome trains there......man is everyone trying to cash in on him or what!

[SecretAgentMan]

They offered something like 5 to 2 on Game On Dude when he was off the ticket 2 starts back in California. Hmm.


That promo was double the odds if any horse won santa anita handicap by more than 2 lengths