Who benefits the most from a sizzling hot Derby pace ?

[porchy44]

I think "Intense Holiday" would be well placed and run a big one.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Ride On Curlin

[SecretAgentMan]

Giacomo & Monarchos but they're not in this race........

[depalma113]

I think "Intense Holiday" would be well placed and run a big one.

There isn't going to be a hot pace.

[PhantomOnTour]

Speaking of the Derby pace...when things do shake out, who will be the last E/P types still running on?

Hot pace or not, there will be casualties, and my strongest E/P types (in no particular order) are:

Samraat
Chitu
and maybe Uncle Sigh and Cali Chrome

then what?

[precocity]

Ride On Curlin
what he said!

[precocity]

I think "Intense Holiday" would be well placed and run a big one.
what he said! :D :ThmbUp:

[BlueChip@DRF]

There isn't going to be a hot pace.

Why not?

[raybo]

Why not?

I agree. With so many horses in this race that are both bred for speed, top and bottom, and have also demonstrated speed in their races, I can't imagine that there's much chance that the early pace will not be fast, and highly contested. There will probably be lots of horses gasping for air at the stretch call.

I'll wait for the post position draw to analyze which horses will have to run early and which ones will benefit from not running early.

The big question, for me, will be what CC has to do, once we know what post he'll run from. If he has to run early, there will probably be a lot of people hollering "fix" if he doesn't even hit the top 4. :lol:

[SecretAgentMan]

Commanding Curve & Medal Count will be in my tris & supers........I know Commandings last 1/4 was slow but I love all 3 of his races st Churchill. Yes they were Maidens but he likes the track.

Both of these horses will close on the supposed fast pace after Chrome is in the lead down the stretch.

[depalma113]

Why not?

With Ring Weekend and Social Inclusion out, there is no horse that needs the lead in the race. There are no pure sprinters in this group. The odds of a pace meltdown are slim.

[BlueChip@DRF]

With Ring Weekend and Social Inclusion out, there is no horse that needs the lead in the race. There are no pure sprinters in this group. The odds of a pace meltdown are slim.

So that bodes well for Wildcat Red, yes?

[PhantomOnTour]

Fast or not, contested or not...who hangs around the longest of these E/P types ?
Will we see this race won from close to the pace?

[depalma113]

So that bodes well for Wildcat Red, yes?

It would have if he didn't look like the Florida Derby ripped his guts out.

[reckless]

Of those horses that I believe have a decent chance at least to be right there, here are the ones I feel may benefit most from a hot pace (not in any particular order):

California Chrome

Danza

Candy Boy

Wildcat Red

General A Rod

[SecretAgentMan]

Fast or not,won ntested or not...who hangs around the longest of these E/P types ?
Will we see this race won from close to the pace?


Who was the last derby winner to win from sitting behind the pace. Big Brown?

The last ones I remember Silver Charm, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Barbaro, Big Brown.........Silver Charm went on to have a great career as an older horse.

Barbaro broke down, Big Brown pulled up in the Belmont stakes. Smarty Jones retired after the Belmont. Goodness sakes, no derby winner has had a decent career after the big race in quite a while.

Gotta see the post positions before making a call in whether we think how the race will be run & won. If Chrome wins, its like Silver Charm or Funny Cide, sitting right behind the pace setters.

[Smarty Cide]

if your rooting for california chrome what do you want to see the first 1/4, 1/2 and 3/4 run in?

[SecretAgentMan]

if your rooting for california chrome what do you want to see the first 1/4, 1/2 and 3/4 run in?


You want to see :46 or :47 at the half.......if you see :44 at the half, be scared unless he's a super freak of a horse.

[SecretAgentMan]

Also, deep closers seem to never be a threat for the triple crown. Every horse that has won the derby & Preakness has been close to the pace since 1997, at least that's how far back I can remember.

I was too young to know what was going on with horse racing in the 80's.

Racing could use some serious triple crown threat this year, especially after the peta crap. I'll Have Another gave it a shot but didn't even run in Belmont stakes.

[mostpost]

Also, deep closers seem to never be a threat for the triple crown. Every horse that has won the derby & Preakness has been close to the pace since 1997, at least that's how far back I can remember.

I was too young to know what was going on with horse racing in the 80's.

Racing could use some serious triple crown threat this year, especially after the peta crap. I'll Have Another gave it a shot but didn't even run in Belmont stakes.
I'm older, but I do not personally remember all of the following.
Six Triple Crown winners were first or second at all calls of all three races.
Sir Barton
War Admiral
Count Fleet
Citation
Affirmed (He was third at the first call of the Derby)
Seattle Slew.

Two were close to the lead in 2 of the three races
Gallant Fox
Secretariat

Three came from off the pace in all three races.
Omaha
Whirlaway
Assault

[BlueChip@DRF]

I'm older, but I do not personally remember all of the following.
Six Triple Crown winners were first or second at all calls of all three races.
Sir Barton
War Admiral
Count Fleet
Citation
Affirmed (He was third at the first call of the Derby)
Seattle Slew.

Two were close to the lead in 2 of the three races
Gallant Fox
Secretariat

Three came from off the pace in all three races.
Omaha
Whirlaway
Assault

Yes, but what was their running style previous to running in the Derby?

[taxicab]

Candy Boy.
In the SA Derby he was forced to move much earlier than he wanted.
Result: No punch in the lane.
He will get a much more favorable pace setup Saturday.
At 30-1 or so he should be live.