Fairmount Park 2014 season picks and thoughts

[cordep17]

I'll mostly be using this thread for my own use because I like the formatting and the ability to find what I've wrote, but I absolutely welcome anyone to share their thoughts.

4/29
Race 3
MC5000 at 5 1/2 F
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=FPK&race=3&param1=422940&param2=960&param3=2320

:1: My Little Sunshine trained by Mike Campbell
Only tried 2 times at 3yrs old and didn't show much in either race.
-------first race ever, started slow, but finished stronger than the two she was able to beat with maybe one use of the whip.
-------second race ever, looked to me to have a very strange stride that would tire the horse. At the very least, she was rank. Had decent workout pattern going into those two races at Hawthorne, which she doesn't really have going into this one at a lesser level. Last year did train at FP like she has been lately with no drastic improvement. 0% and 16% trainer with horses coming off 90+ days rest. :ThmbDown:

:2: Happy Helen trained by Dawn Martin
Raced 3 times at 3years old at FP at the same distance. All three times, she exhibited an early speed running style.
First two races, wasn't able to finish strong against MdnSpWt8k company, but still had early speed and hung around long enough to make me think she was in good form and should be more than able to compete with mc5000 company. in the second race, may have fallen back early because of the pressure he was under being the inside horse. That could be the case again coming out of the 2 post.
----3rd race vs. mc4000 was able to take a step back and race as a midpack runner and finished 2nd, 8 lengths behind a horse who continued racing that season and was able to win a claiming race at Hawthorne. This makes me less concerned about the ? I raised above. Hopefully can drop back and succeed, because there is enough speed in this race
I think Dawn runs a smaller stable, so it seems reasonable to give a horse who didn't necessarily need it some time off to continue to grow. 3 good track works coming into the race make me confident in what this horse brings to a race in a class he seems to make sense in. Martin isn't the best layoff trainer at 5% 31%, but not unreasonable for a small sample size of 42. :ThmbUp:

:3: Bodacious Bets trained by Gene Allen
Talk about a head scratcher. Lets see if we can piece this thing together.

Raced twice at 2, in a SpWt49k and a SpWt60k, finishing a respectable 13 and 15 lengths back. She did show improvement between the first and second, being relatively closer to the front in the second for longer. He did that while being trained by a 4-0-0-0 trainer. Switched trainers and barns and raced close to the front as a three year on synthetics in a 40k and 50k at AP and Keen. Last race was in October of 2012. Had been under a successful trainer for 3 yr old season.
Now family owner by the Allen family and in a MC5000, a thousand levels lower than he used to be. has only had 2 works coming into the race, one a bullet at 3f. last was 6 days ago, and the previous 9 days before that. Not sure what to make of this. in previous races, a half mile was being run 3 whole seconds faster :confused: :ThmbUp: :ThmbDown: :ThmbUp: :confused:

:4: Tough Charmertrained by Thomas E. Trione
Raced once at 3, which makes this the second start. Pushed the tempo in a mc8000 at 5F and faded 15 lengths. gave it up semi-late in the race, but now he is going an extra half furlong. Always trained at FP even though her race was at Hawthorne. All three recent works are slightly slower than all from last year that prepped her for that fade. Not sure if she's coming as ready as she could. Where the speed is coming from in this one is a bit cloudy. has a semi-decent layoff trainer at 9% 33%

:5: Fabulous Fifi trained by Steve Fridley
Hasn't raced in 2 years. No where close in 2011 or 2012. No changes connections wise. No clear reason to give much of a chance besides the drop in class, but the fractional times in previous races weren't outrageous, so she lacks an excuse for being completely irrelevant. trainer did have a positive ROI w/ layoff horses, which I find interesting since the horse is 20/1 ML. Probably has had some horses who don't make a lot of sense off layoffs come in. :ThmbDown:

:6: Dixie Heirloom trained by Joseph Kanhai
5th race of the year. 1st w/ this trainer. Coming from a trainer with semi success to a trainer without a lot of experience, which makes it tough to tell what may or may not be about to change. Has had semi success in statebred races at Will Rodgers. Seems like a midpack runner who may be slightly outclassed in statebred maiden7500 races, which might be slightly tougher competition. Hasn't logged a work or race at FP for a new trainer. Changes in trainer habbits and a new place might make him need a few. :ThmbUp:

:7: Honey's Back trained by Scott Becker
Also a question mark. Started strong last year with a 3rd place finish, but worsened in the following couple races. Now coming off an 11 month layoff, she's dropping into the claiming ranks for the first time. Trainer expectations have been lowered. Has a nice 3f prep work 3 days before the race. Has logged 7 works, increasing in distance and at good intervals, in preparation for the start, which is why the trainer is the best at FP. 24% and 54% with layoff horses, Becker is always spotting his horses appropriately. Definitely fits and has a good chance.
---first race: fell back, swung out wide and finished a strong 3rd
---2nd race: Similar to the firstin a lot of ways. horse he barely necked out in first got him by 8 or so lengths. Was wide w/ traffic
---3rd race: got out of the gate faster and lost all relevance early :ThmbUp:

:8: Mostest trained by John Wainwright
third race of the year. couldn't keep up with Hawhtorne horses, so is coming back 10 days after last loss. Last, seemed to improve with slower pace slightly. Should get a slower pace in this one and fits well as the favorite. Has a lot of works at FP and a fair trainer, so I'd expect the horse to handle the track, at minimum, decently. one of the few horses that isn't a question mark.
:ThmbUp:

Front Runners: :3: :4:
Pressures: :2: :8:
Stalkers --> Midpackers: :6: :7:
Irrelevents: :1: :5:

The 3 is 12/1 on the ML. for a horse with the kind of experience he has against so much better, that line would be a gift. I can't, or at least don't, know how long the Allens have had the horse. Maybe they've given the horse the needed time off to work out the kinks it had been dealing with. She's definitely a risky wager in this one, but definitely a horse to watch in the future.

A lot of questions in this one and probably not worth taking a big risk

$8-win on 3
$2 exacta 2 7 8 / 3
$1 2 7 8 / 6
investment: $17

[cordep17]

$8-win on 3
$2 exacta 2 7 8 / 3
$1 2 7 8 / 6
investment: $17

8 and 2 scratched
OoF: 7-3-1-6
Investment: $11
$2 exacta payed $8.60

-$1.40

[cordep17]

5/10
Race 1
Claiming 3200 n3L going 6 Furlongs
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=FPK&race=1&param1=140980&param2=400&param3=800

:1: Jandemar's Slew trained by Rusty A. Hellman
Has always ran well at FP. Versatile. can run from off the pace a bit or be on or near the lead...watched every race in last 10 though and doesn't seem to be an option. Even stumbled bad in one start and rather than getting down on the rail and saving crown. He quickly tried catching up to the pack 5 wide. Usually clears horses, but I think dealing with pressure from the outside is a problem for this one. Has a trainer on a big hot streak. Failed to win a couple 1 on 1 battles in july and august of last year. Hit the par 2 ago at a higher level and is now dropping into 3200 range after a poor outing. Looking at the races he could have run in thus far though at FP, this is probably the best spot.

:2: Goody Goody trained by Dawn Martin
Lost all of his early speed when he got out of the n2L condition, but this is the lowest level he has tried at the n3L, so there is a possibility he perks up. A quick look at the PPs says he struggles with 6F, but has been successful in both 6F races and routes in the past. Worked a couple times at 5f before last race. I think this one could improve.

:3: Alaskan Comet trained by James R. Childers
No early speed. Closer who needs everyone to fail. doesn't have the best layoff trainer, and 6f doesn't seem to be the preference. Can close well at times though. Didn't impress last layoff. 6yo. Probably won't see anything we haven't.

:4: Native Sword trained by Rhonda Thurman
New trainer and owner. Trainer is 1 for 2 on year with MC25k win at Hawthorne. Not a great layoff trainer, and only worked once at 3f on the year. Will Pressure the leaders. and used to race competitively with more valuable maidens than most of these horses. A good horse. May not bring everything though.

:5: Cielo Slew trained by Gabe Retana
Out of form. dropping. for only an OK trainer. 8yo. might be a pace factor for about 5-10 seconds. trainer also has the 6. This one has no chance and the next has some speed, so probably won't tell the jock to send him to the front, even though he probably has 0 chance of getting there even if he wanted to.

:6: Boss Girl trained by Gabe Retana
First start for trainer in a while, but used to run for him. When he did, he ran at FP and didn't really show much at a lower level than today's race. Should be able to flash some speed, but may also stalk because he can. Has been running well at Fonner, so could bring a little bit more to the table than he did last time at FP.

Single the 1 for DD and maybe to win

Race 3
Maiden Claiming 3200 going 6 Furlongs
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=FPK&race=3&param1=422940&param2=1200&param3=800

:1: Lady Ambassador trained by Scott Becker
Sold for above the sire average. Hasn't had a timed work for more than 2 months. didn't start at 3. Is trained by Becker and is ridden by Hernandez...last 14 days are 11-5-4-1 together.

:2: Zonino trained by Gail Macari
Bris says sire fee is $500...internet says private. As of 2011, chief earner had only $10k in earnings. a + is that the trainers ROI w/ firsters is +5.27..2/11 with them. Has worked out ever 7 days since March 15.

:3: Miss Jolene trained by Michelle Booker
closest has ever been is 13 lengths in 8 starts. That was at FP at current level. Followed that with a 42 length loss and layoff. Back with a work at 3f and 4f. has improved a bit with the addition of blinkers.

:4: Fabulous Fifi trained by Steve Fridley
dropped after two layoff. Far back vs. small field in last and is dropping again.

:5: Mostest trained by Charles C. Walker Jr.
First race in this thread I handicapped a MC5000. This horse was the 8 and was scratched. Is now going 1/2 Furlong further vs. worse. it was a vet scratch. He raced well in previous 2 of the year (competitive front running effort until fading). With the scratch becomes a bit more of a question mark. This is a pretty hefty drop to MC3200 from 8000.

:6: Rajule trained by Dennis P. Hughs
ML favorite despite having not won in 32 starts.
Raced in 3 MC8000 at Hawthorne. last was a 14 length loss, but there was a dominating winner, so a pass on that one i think is fair. Seems to be in pretty good form in comparison to the rest of career. 8 years old. Done improving.

:7: Susie's Faith trained by Jerry Hammond
Far and away the most consistent. Has a lot of experience at FP. 2nd off layoff really could improve after facing one of the highest levels he has faced. They are bringing him back 11 days later. Has a good 2nd off layoff trainer.

The 5 6 7 will get all of the money.
the 1 might be worth getting a look. 7 is 5/1 ML and I think has a pretty good shot with the the 6 7.
$2 7 / 1 5 6
$1 1 5 6 / 7

if trying for the DD... the 5 and 7 and maybe the 1

Race 5
State-bred Maiden12k going 5 1/2
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=FPK&race=5&param1=800&param2=2000&param3=704900

:1: Yurman's Pearl trained by Gerald W. Butler
Came in fourth 1st career race after contesting for the lead. Can improve with a good trainer with 2nd time starters, but trying better competition probably isn't the best option for this need the lead type. that race was also out of the 1 post. did have to contend with 2 others on a hot pace. and was able to beat off the closers still. Trainer has a handle on things, and could have waited a bit longer for conditions more favorable conditions. I think he knows better than to sit on a hot horse. If there isn't much speed, could be a value w/ the 5/1 ML :ThmbUp:

:2: Michaleen trained by Frank C. Randazzo Jr.
this 3 yo has only 2 timed works, and last was a 3f bullet. Trainer does alright with first time starters.

:3: Document trained by Walter W. Smith
Was never competitive as a 3yo vs. better for a 9-0-1-1 trainer. This race he moved to a new trainer, but was doing alright with a statistically decent trainer. Will be MP--> the back of the back. This will be the first start for Walter Smith as a trainer.

:4: Alaskan Sky trained by Charles C. Wallker Jr.
for a trainer with as solid of a win% and itm%, he sure is bad with firsters. So many of his firsters have been in MdnSpWt, so I suppose he likes to see what he is dealing with before dropping them to the bottom.

:5: Tyde trained by John C. Wainwright
The trainer hasn't won yet on the year out of 28 starts, but is itm almost half the time. is OK with firsters and this one has a real good work pattern.

:6: Susan's Rap trained by Scott Becker
has faded bad vs. better, but has contended for the lead in those races, so it is a lot more forgivable considering the drop in class. Didn't contend great, but did contend. Pees down his leg when he loses the lead a bit.

:7: More Honey trained by Tom Dorris
Good firster trainer. Good pattern. Hasn't breezed from the gate. Nothing else is too revealing.

:8: Kai's Blessing trained by Gail Macari
Can't compete in claiming races. Should contribute a bit to the pace.

:9: Dimeonthelime trained by Bryan Porter
All the way from Canterbury. Failed on turf, but race three times competitively against MC20k company. Trainer is all around strong. Good works and a good number at FP. Stalker type helps.

:10: Dr. Bud trained by Bernard P. McDonnell
Could contribute to the pace. Did have a good work. Couldn't finish competitively at similar level last year. Small sample size for trainer with comebackers.

Probable bets:
$6 exacta 1-9
$4 exacta 9-1
$1 trifecta 1 9 / 1 9 / 2 3 5 6 7
$.50 1 9 / 2 3 5 6 7 / 1 9

[QuarterRACER]

you seem to be in the know about the track so hopefully you can answer. the past few years fairmont has carded quarterhorse races of which i checked the entries and made a point to bet the qh races there. last year they cut back the qh races to only 7 or 8 days,in 2012 they ran many more than that. am wondering if they have discontinued the qh races completely this year. if they have it will save myself from checking the entries every day that they run. thanks for the info

[cordep17]

Race 1
:1: Sun Fashion
Has never been competitive. Has been even less competitive in sprints. Has shown speed in routes, but probably won't be a factor early in this one.
:1a: Most Glorious
pretty competitive with a chance to improve. Is getting hiked up a bit in class. May contribute a bit to the pace.
:2: Niagra Mermaid
Lowest class level. Could perk up a bit and impress more than it has.
:2b: Kodi's April
I think this one could surprise. Can be close to the pace or on it. Has been outclassed and has proved to not be a router. I think this one belongs at the level, and now that he has a solid trainer at the helm, could surprise with good odds.
:3: Nat's My Road
Drops to mdnclm'ing. All we can do is wait and see. Trainer is good with 2nd time starters and droppers
:4: Fabulous Fifi
2 year layoff. Came back strong in last and goes up in class for a fairly good trainer. higher trainer expectations. no proof though he can handle class hike.
:5: Use Your Illusion
Hasn't run as fast as needed yet, but has been fair in the stretch runs and is headed out for a new trainer.
:6: Good Gosh
Competitive in 1st try at same level. Makes clear sense.
:7: Callmeawinner
strong in this race, but may prefer an off track.


I really do expect the :2b: to perk up, and at 15-1 is worth using.
I think the heavy favorites get the slight edge
:6: :7: / :6: :7: :2::2b: :4:
also :7: / :6: :2b: :4:
also :2: :2b: / :6: :7:

[cordep17]

Race 1

also :2: :2b: / :6: :7:

:2b: - :6:
exacta pays 119

[cordep17]

Race 2
the 2, Z Appeal, seems tough to beat.
:2: / :4: :6:
:2: / :4: :6: / :4: :6: :1:

[cordep17]

Race 3
$5 exacta :1: - :7:
$3 exacta :7: - :1:

[cordep17]

Race 2
6f Clm4000b
:1: Passionately Sweet
Has a good trainer, and has competed vs. similar and slightly better. Hasn't raced much this year, but ran above the par in last vs. slightly weaker. Looked to be a dream trip. Watching the replays from that day though, it seemed as though the track was very even. So, the question is whether he can get that nice rail trip again

:2: Maybelle Slew---ML favorite 7/5
Everything looks perfect, which raises a red flag. Hot hot trainer with the leading jockey. just won at 7500 level and was very competitive in a starter allowance. Trainer only recently got him off the claim. Has met the par in practically every race. The only question is why is he dropping. This race does maintain the horse's schedule. That said, he has the same training pattern since switching trainers with a 3f work between each race. He ran the most recent 3 seconds slower. The trainer may have been looking for a race soon after the work, but held off. Now could be looking to claim him away, which still does't mean he can't win, but I prefer a horse moving up the form ladder vs. down it.

:3: Fleece
two wins for a combined 19 lengths at FP in a clm3200n2L and a clm4000n3L before trying stakes company (for 85k...silly spot probably egged on by hopeful ownership) and big purse, state bred allowance races. the stakes blew him out of the water going an uncomfortable distance, and the allowances races were honestly fair attempts in which he wasn't able to get to the lead and only pst by 6 and 13 lengths. That all being last year. This year has run in 1 race against 5k, state bred company in indiana. company. Ran fCir, and is running for a trainer who does well 2nd off layoffs. I try not to guess, but chances are that is the lowest rung at indiana downs and is for state-bred horses. This is probably not a drop, but instead a hike. Doesn't always fade, so could stick around for at least a piece.
:4: Eye Can Flat Run
has improved drastically with a trainer switch for this year. Still not special, but definitely improved. has run a lot lately and trainer is keeping it up, i suppose trying to strike while the iron is hot. still hasn't been near the par in a lot of these races vs. worse. Did hit it two ago though, but vs. worse and no other fig in his PPs that can suggest a repeat vs better.

:5: Now You're Mad
Could be regaining a little bit of past form, now showing a little bit of early speed, speed he had lost for a while. Could be the horse rising the form ladder the most after last win. The issue being though that he was the favorite in a race where he was uncompetitive in his previous race under very similar circumstances, meaning he wasn't up against much.

:6: Party Dance
Closer who hasn't hit the par and spends a lot of time against slightly worse. Pretty poor trainer, but did win last.

I think the 1 is the best option. 9/2 ML. Something tells me the 2 will be bet down a whole lot more than 7/5. has been successful in the past being a few lengths behind the leaders, but also just showed he can rally from mudpack if need be. There is some speed in this one, but I expect at least half the contributors will fall back, opening for a good rail trip.

[cordep17]

Race 3
6F MdnClm5000
:1: Stormy Commandress
His hit the par in practically all race. hasn't raced in a year though, and is dropping significantly. Did struggle in first race of career for the trainer. Tough bet for being the favorite

:2: Hecky Dorn
could show some early speed. drop should help, but seems like a good group for this race. last race is irrelevant with the rider off.

:3: no

:4: performed well in last and is only racing for the third time. Should still be improving, but now is running in a MdnClm

:5: probably not
:6: probably not
:7: probably not
:8: didn't run the fastest fig in last, but did improve. Could be a good closing option

R4
5 1/2 F Clm7500n3L
:1:
always successful in slowly run races. Struggles with the 46 split and usually fades. moving up a bit after a loss, but has faced better. seems to really depend on the pace
:2:
could surprise. has done well vs. better but last year. had a good race 2 ago and last was a throwout i guess. going up with a good trainer who thinks highly. can close or lead
:3:
doesn't fit class, but should be a big part of early speed
:4: i don't see it
:5: could be a big factor up front

R6
Clm12500n2L