bgbootha
04-27-2014, 05:44 PM
Could win it
California Chrome - Not saying he will win, but he is the safest bet at this point, and should be sitting just about right to easily hit the board.
Vicar's In Trouble - Hasn't done anything wrong, impressive win in the Louisiana and Rose aboard.
Samraat - Post draw is huge for this horse. I still think he can win this thing with the right trip and the right post draw. If he can hang off the pace, he will have a shot.
Intense Holiday - Probably a surprise to see him in this group. But his 2nd place finish in the Louisiana was impressive after watching the tape. Race may set up nicely for him here.
Possible Winner but likely in the money
Wicked Strong - His win in the Wood was impressive, but it was aided by a very strong pace. Could be looking at a bounce and not fire here in Kentucky, will likely be coming from too far back in order to win.
Medal Count - This horse hasn't ran out of his shoes yet, but has ran some very nice races, he had to come insanely wide in the Blue Grass and still finished very well. The extra distance could be perfect for him to grab a few more horses down the stretch.
General A Rod - I think he has a chance to finish ahead of quite a few horses here, and I wonder how the connections are going to play it. Another horse that needs to draw a good post, but seems like a legit contender to hit the board.
Unlikely Winner but may include in Exotics
Ride On Curlin - Doesn't look like he has enough to win, but I can't count him out of scoring something here.
Danza - Was the Arkansas win for real? So little info on this horse I have no idea. His Brisnet speed figures jumped up 17 points between his last two starts. I like the fact that he has already ran on four different tracks.
Commanding Curve - I like this horse, his run in the Lousiana Derby was impressive. He was mugged coming out of the gate settled in last and then moved VERY well through traffic coming around the final turn and made a strong move, making ground on Intense Holiday down the stretch.
Hoppertunity - Doesn't belong with the big boys, but his running style and Mike Smith make him a solid inclusion into the exotics here. Running style screams a solid shot at the back end of the Exacta, Trifecta or Super.
WildCat Red - I don't see this horse winning it. I just don't see anyone in this field wiring the other horses and Chitu is going to kill him. But this horse has showed more heart and fight than most and wouldn't surprise me to see a Bodemiester type finish from this one. You have to include him in your exotics.
Tapiture - I loved this horse after the Rebel, and he did NOTHING in the Arkansas Derby, that 4th place finish was garbage, he was pretty wide. Part of me wonders if the connections had a win or don't worry about it approach being that he was already in. I don't know what to make of him anymore
Candy Boy - Looked great in the Robert B Lewis, but then took a long layoff and didn't fire in the Santa Anita. Was the layoff a big deal or will he be primed for the Derby. I don' see the crop of California horses that he beat up on very strong, likely a pass.
Could surprise, but most likely out of the money
Uncle Sigh - Solid horse coming out of New York, the addition of blinkers has Palice Malice written all over him. Would not suprise me to see his name on the top heading into the first turn, but don't see him finishing in the top 10 when it's all said and done.
Ride On Curlin - Doesn't look like he has enough to win, but I can't count him out of scoring something here.
Vinceremos - Looked great and the poor showing in the Blue Grass can be tossed with a horrible trip and the synthetic surface. Was pointed in the right direction, but would still need a good step up to compete here. Top 10 finish sounds likely, but not much better.
Dance With Fate - Loves the synthetics, hates the turf. Doesn't seem to fit into the Derby mold. Would have to fire far personal best on dirt to even be close.
We Miss Artie - Spiral Stakes win wasn't all that impressive barely beating the likes of Harry's Holiday and Coastline.
Toss'em - Horses that shouldn't be taking up a spot in these gates
Chitu - Going to be a hell of a miler or sprinter, but doesn't belong going the Derby distance. Will likely play the role of Trinniberg a few years ago and just be in the race to destroy WildCat Red.
Harry's Holiday -Last 4 on synthetic and they weren't even that impressive. Simply doesn't belong in this field.
California Chrome - Not saying he will win, but he is the safest bet at this point, and should be sitting just about right to easily hit the board.
Vicar's In Trouble - Hasn't done anything wrong, impressive win in the Louisiana and Rose aboard.
Samraat - Post draw is huge for this horse. I still think he can win this thing with the right trip and the right post draw. If he can hang off the pace, he will have a shot.
Intense Holiday - Probably a surprise to see him in this group. But his 2nd place finish in the Louisiana was impressive after watching the tape. Race may set up nicely for him here.
Possible Winner but likely in the money
Wicked Strong - His win in the Wood was impressive, but it was aided by a very strong pace. Could be looking at a bounce and not fire here in Kentucky, will likely be coming from too far back in order to win.
Medal Count - This horse hasn't ran out of his shoes yet, but has ran some very nice races, he had to come insanely wide in the Blue Grass and still finished very well. The extra distance could be perfect for him to grab a few more horses down the stretch.
General A Rod - I think he has a chance to finish ahead of quite a few horses here, and I wonder how the connections are going to play it. Another horse that needs to draw a good post, but seems like a legit contender to hit the board.
Unlikely Winner but may include in Exotics
Ride On Curlin - Doesn't look like he has enough to win, but I can't count him out of scoring something here.
Danza - Was the Arkansas win for real? So little info on this horse I have no idea. His Brisnet speed figures jumped up 17 points between his last two starts. I like the fact that he has already ran on four different tracks.
Commanding Curve - I like this horse, his run in the Lousiana Derby was impressive. He was mugged coming out of the gate settled in last and then moved VERY well through traffic coming around the final turn and made a strong move, making ground on Intense Holiday down the stretch.
Hoppertunity - Doesn't belong with the big boys, but his running style and Mike Smith make him a solid inclusion into the exotics here. Running style screams a solid shot at the back end of the Exacta, Trifecta or Super.
WildCat Red - I don't see this horse winning it. I just don't see anyone in this field wiring the other horses and Chitu is going to kill him. But this horse has showed more heart and fight than most and wouldn't surprise me to see a Bodemiester type finish from this one. You have to include him in your exotics.
Tapiture - I loved this horse after the Rebel, and he did NOTHING in the Arkansas Derby, that 4th place finish was garbage, he was pretty wide. Part of me wonders if the connections had a win or don't worry about it approach being that he was already in. I don't know what to make of him anymore
Candy Boy - Looked great in the Robert B Lewis, but then took a long layoff and didn't fire in the Santa Anita. Was the layoff a big deal or will he be primed for the Derby. I don' see the crop of California horses that he beat up on very strong, likely a pass.
Could surprise, but most likely out of the money
Uncle Sigh - Solid horse coming out of New York, the addition of blinkers has Palice Malice written all over him. Would not suprise me to see his name on the top heading into the first turn, but don't see him finishing in the top 10 when it's all said and done.
Ride On Curlin - Doesn't look like he has enough to win, but I can't count him out of scoring something here.
Vinceremos - Looked great and the poor showing in the Blue Grass can be tossed with a horrible trip and the synthetic surface. Was pointed in the right direction, but would still need a good step up to compete here. Top 10 finish sounds likely, but not much better.
Dance With Fate - Loves the synthetics, hates the turf. Doesn't seem to fit into the Derby mold. Would have to fire far personal best on dirt to even be close.
We Miss Artie - Spiral Stakes win wasn't all that impressive barely beating the likes of Harry's Holiday and Coastline.
Toss'em - Horses that shouldn't be taking up a spot in these gates
Chitu - Going to be a hell of a miler or sprinter, but doesn't belong going the Derby distance. Will likely play the role of Trinniberg a few years ago and just be in the race to destroy WildCat Red.
Harry's Holiday -Last 4 on synthetic and they weren't even that impressive. Simply doesn't belong in this field.