Lets Start Tossing Horses

[Smarty Cide]

Ill start... Medal Count - In 7 career races he has only raced twice on dirt finishing 5th and 11th. Easy Toss

[BlueChip@DRF]

Ring Weekend - he's lost ground in the stretch in ALL his starts

[bgbootha]

Harry's Holday - Has never won in a graded field. Lets be realistic, simply doesn't belong here.

[SecretAgentMan]

Ill start... Medal Count - In 7 career races he has only raced twice on dirt finishing 5th and 11th. Easy Toss


Can't agree with you here, Medal Count is working great over the Churchill dirt & this horse is getting better with every race.


Why don't you throw out your dark horse, Vince :)

[BlinkersOn]

Vincermos. I'm not tossing Medal Count though.

[Smarty Cide]

Medal Count fans huh? only 2 races on dirt so far and both didnt do much with....

[BlinkersOn]

Uncle Sigh...I think he's got to go.

[BlinkersOn]

Medal Count fans huh? only 2 races on dirt so far ad both didnt do much with....


Last race he finished 2nd on only a 5 day rest.

[Tall One]

Last race he finished 2nd on only a 5 day rest.



8 days, but I think you have to respect Romans as well as not forgetting the Animal Kingdom angle.

He's a live play, imo.

[BlinkersOn]

I'm not using Tapiture, but I'm sure a lot of people aren't going to agree with me on this one.

[holmmd]

Tapiture. Don't think he can get the distance.

[Thebigguy]

Why bother naming huge odd horses? Almost every post in this thread is a bomb.
How about these 2. Im not covering Cali Chrome or Untapable at all. Not on any ticket I play. I think there are 3 or 4 horses in both races who are improving rapidly and cant beat these 2 chalks. Both of them will be huge underlays.

[Smarty Cide]

Why bother naming huge odd horses? Almost every post in this thread is a bomb.
How about these 2. Im not covering Cali Chrome or Untapable at all. Not on any ticket I play. I think there are 3 or 4 horses in both races who are improving rapidly and cant beat these 2 chalks. Both of them will be huge underlays.


thanks for the money man :jump:

[TMQ]

Why bother naming huge odd horses? Almost every post in this thread is a bomb.
How about these 2. Im not covering Cali Chrome or Untapable at all. Not on any ticket I play. I think there are 3 or 4 horses in both races who are improving rapidly and cant beat these 2 chalks. Both of them will be huge underlays.
I couldn't agree more.... I see no value betting a 2-1 Chromeo in a 20 horse field!

[BlinkersOn]

thanks for the money man :jump:

We are tossing Derby horses. Untapable is not running in the Derby, so she isn't going to be mentioned. As for CC, I'm not about to toss him. I have some good longshots to go with him, but it would be suicide to toss that horse. Just my thoughts. Next toss is Chitu.

[SecretAgentMan]

I couldn't agree more.... I see no value betting a 2-1 Chromeo in a 20 horse field!


Did you see any value in betting the 2-1 Big Brown in the exacta, triple & superfecta? There's more ways than one to bet a favorite.........

Object is to cash a ticket, not try to beat the best horse in the field whether he's the favorite or like Animal Kingdom at 20-1 & War Emblem at 20-1......& I don't see any horses comparable in this years crop to beat Chrome.

[BlinkersOn]

Why toss out the probable winner in CC. Find some good longshots to go with him.
BTW, Untappable is not running in the Derby. I believe she is running in the Oaks, so we wouldn't have been discussing her at all.

My next toss would be Chitu.

[Mineshaft]

CC is a must use in all exotics. With that being said if he doesn't finish in the Top 4 I think u can expect some nice payouts in the exotics. So are u going to use him or not?

[BlinkersOn]

I think there is money to be made even with the favorite winning, and I think he will. I'm going to bet a super keying California Chrome on top and some nice longshots (and there will be a lot of them.) I'm betting CC goes off about 9/5 to be honest, so the only value is in betting a tri or super and getting some great longshots underneath.

Everyone told me the 95 Classic at Belmont wouldn't pay anything, and I only bet a $10.00 exacta with Cigar and some longshot (don't even remember his name now) and it paid $84.00. I'm not going to be stupid and let the best horse out. If he doesn't win, I'll eat crow.

[maddog42]

Let's make some really tough eliminations from the win position (not Place).

Vicar's in Trouble
Dance with Fate
Danza
Hoppertunity
Intense Holiday
We Miss Artie
Bayern
Big Bazinga
Tapiture
Medal Count
Uncle Sigh

Please don't bust my chops, if any of these horses aren't running. This is a download from Bris I am using from a few days ago.

[SecretAgentMan]

Wicked Strong won't win........neither will Samraat

[depalma113]

Wicked Strong won't win........neither will Samraat


The Wood Memorial has become pretty much irrelevant since Florida Derby horses couldn't run in it anymore.

[Smarty Cide]

Did you see any value in betting the 2-1 Big Brown in the exacta, triple & superfecta? There's more ways than one to bet a favorite.........

Object is to cash a ticket, not try to beat the best horse in the field whether he's the favorite or like Animal Kingdom at 20-1 & War Emblem at 20-1......& I don't see any horses comparable in this years crop to beat Chrome.


what he said :ThmbUp:

[precocity]

Let's make some really tough eliminations from the win position (not Place).

Vicar's in Trouble
Dance with Fate
Danza
Hoppertunity
Intense Holiday
We Miss Artie
Bayern
Big Bazinga
Tapiture
Medal Count
Uncle Sigh

Please don't bust my chops, if any of these horses aren't running. This is a download from Bris I am using from a few days ago.
Intense Holiday :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[TheGarMan]

Why bother naming huge odd horses? Almost every post in this thread is a bomb.
How about these 2. Im not covering Cali Chrome or Untapable at all. Not on any ticket I play. I think there are 3 or 4 horses in both races who are improving rapidly and cant beat these 2 chalks. Both of them will be huge underlays.

Right on brother... But seriously, don't tell the "sheeple" :) Let them pour money on CC :D More $$$$$ for us.

I think you would be mistaken to throw out Intense Holiday, or Danza (maybe even Medal Count) with 20 wired horses, a lot can happen. I guess all I am saying is be careful who you "toss".

gar

[BlinkersOn]

I'm not about to toss Hoppertunity or Intense Holiday. I think I still want to keep Danza in the picture for now too. I'm told he looks incredible. He could surprise for part of the tri.

[depalma113]

Right on brother... But seriously, don't tell the "sheeple" :) Let them pour money on CC :D More $$$$$ for us.

gar

The only sheep are those thinking they can find some way to beat him. They repeat the same blah blah blah. He hasn't shipped, he hasn't worked on the track. It's a 20 horse field, anything can happen. blah blah blah.

[maddog42]

I'm not about to toss Hoppertunity or Intense Holiday. I think I still want to keep Danza in the picture for now too. I'm told he looks incredible. He could surprise for part of the tri.

Hoppertunity was the hardest elimination. I certainly have second thoughts about him. The others, not so much. I based all the the eliminations above on pace and how they performed against a fast 2nd call, or if they had faced a fast pace. History tells me to get rid of these. I am going to toss a few more
and get it down to 7 horses that I think are capable of winning.

[Smarty Cide]

The only sheep are those thinking they can find some way to beat him. They repeat the same blah blah blah. He hasn't shipped, he hasn't worked on the track. It's a 20 horse field, anything can happen. blah blah blah.


yes its a 20 horse field anything can happen on the trip... however thats the only argument against him

he is by far the best horse its not disputable in my opinion

[SecretAgentMan]

Espinoza will be holding on for dear life as Chrome goes into high gear & takes off like he's got a nitro pack on coming around the top of the stretch & passes Wildcard Red to win by at least 5 lengths........:)

As for the 20 horse field, let's see the post positions on Wed. If he gets a good post, his tactical speed will set him up perfectly.

[Smarty Cide]

Espinoza will be holding on for dear life as Chrome goes into high gear & takes off like he's got a nitro pack on coming around the top of the stretch & passes Wildcard Red to win by at least 5 lengths........:)

As for the 20 horse field, let's see the post positions on Wed. If he gets a good post, his tactical speed will set him up perfectly.

man that post is as if i wrote it... exactly the scenario as to what i see... but i did hear wildcat red tired big time in his work over churchill today which concerns me

[BlueChip@DRF]

Espinoza will be holding on for dear life as Chrome goes into high gear & takes off like he's got a nitro pack on coming around the top of the stretch & passes Wildcard Red to win by at least 5 lengths........:)

As for the 20 horse field, let's see the post positions on Wed. If he gets a good post, his tactical speed will set him up perfectly.

Ot it could be a "whodahellwuzdat?" picking up pieces in the final furlong and just happens to edge out the stretch frontrunner at the wire. :D :bang: :mad: :)

[Smarty Cide]

like mine that bird.... "whothe****isthehorse"

**** that horse

take mine that bird out and i hit the winner, the exacta, the tri and the super and my life is completely financially different right now...

ill never get over that

[BlueChip@DRF]

like mine that bird.... "whothe****isthehorse"

**** that horse

take mine that bird out and i hit the winner, the exacta, the tri and the super and my life is completely financially different right now...

ill never get over that

Same boat. Who wudda thot?....

[SecretAgentMan]

like mine that bird.... "whothe****isthehorse"

**** that horse

take mine that bird out and i hit the winner, the exacta, the tri and the super and my life is completely financially different right now...

ill never get over that

I had Pioneer of Nile across the board & I was thinking of betting a $5 exacta box PON with all but didn't.......that exacta was fat.....$2 exacta paid $2,060

[BlueChip@DRF]

Maybe I should do my co-worker's Derby betting system?

[maddog42]

My contenders for Derby win:

California Chrome
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Wildcat Red
Ride on Curlin
Chitu
Social Inclusion
Strong Mandate
General a Rod
Candy Boy

[SecretAgentMan]

My contenders for Derby win:

California Chrome
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Wildcat Red
Ride on Curlin
Chitu
Social Inclusion
Strong Mandate
General a Rod
Candy Boy


Strong Mandate isn't running in the derby & Social Inclusion is on the bubble looking in........

[maddog42]

Strong Mandate isn't running in the derby & Social Inclusion is on the bubble looking in........
Great. Now it seems I only have to worry about 8 horses.

[Bill Cullen]

Toss California Chrome: in his tenth race he had a life time high Beyer last out, three ascending Beyers, will contend with a very fast pace AND the brisnet race class of his last two races was 116 and 115 respectively.

I like Wicked Strong who wasn't too far off at every call with a very fast pace in the Wood and beat a field with a class rating of 117.

I also like Danza who was close up at every call in the Ark Derby and beat a field with a class rating of 118.

If I had to pick a third horse to come off the pace that has tactical speed, I'd go with Ride On Curlin.

Two front runners who I expect to improve in the Derby are Bayern and Social Inclusion.

Bill C

[luisbe]

My six horses tri box has been decided unless one of them is out of the derby.
My contenders: California Chrome, Wicked Strong, Danza, We Miss Artie, Chitu and Medal Count.

[Bill Cullen]

Looks like a good box!

[JackS]

My top 8 Picks in order

Social Inclusion
Bayern
California Chrome
Hoppertunity
Wildcat Red/// Candy Boy (tied)
Chitu

My concerns are with the top two on this list.
I remember a few years ago the man that invented the Dosage method stated that (to date), there had never been a Derby winner that had not also won as a 2yo.
He was quick to add that this is just a stat and may have nothing to do with reality.
Anyone have an update or comment?

[SecretAgentMan]

My top 8 Picks in order

Social Inclusion
Bayern
California Chrome
Hoppertunity
Wildcat Red/// Candy Boy (tied)
Chitu

My concerns are with the top two on this list.
I remember a few years ago the man that invented the Dosage method stated that (to date), there had never been a Derby winner that had not also won as a 2yo.
He was quick to add that this is just a stat and may have nothing to do with reality.
Anyone have an update or comment?


As of today, Bayern & Social Inclusion are not in the derby.

[onefast99]

As of today, Bayern & Social Inclusion are not in the derby.
The Derby isn't today!!!!:eek:

[Matt Bryan]

Same boat. Who wudda thot?....

Yeah. However, in hindsight, MTB had a strong pedigree. CC may get outrun, just like his papa.