post position

[sbcaris]

Horses that get post 1 or 2 are up against it in a large field. Thru the history of the Derby ONLY one horse managed to win from post position 1 if the field size of the Derby was 18 or more. That horse was Triple Crown winner, War Admiral. There were 28 Derbies that had a field size of 18 or more.

Only 1 horse from post 2 won the roses when the field size was 18 or more. That horse was Cannonade in 1974.

The 2 post has managed to finish third four times since 2006 and Ice Box finished second in 2012 from the 2 post. So, they can hit the board.

Basically, the 1 and 2 post positions are bad propositions for the win spot in the Derby because in recent years the field size is 18 or more.

Thru the history of the Derby back to 1930 there were 8 winners from the 1 hole but only 1 of those 8 could do it when the field size was 18 or higher (War Admiral).

[SecretAgentMan]

Horses that get post 1 or 2 are up against it in a large field. Thru the history of the Derby ONLY one horse managed to win from post position 1 if the field size of the Derby was 18 or more. That horse was Triple Crown winner, War Admiral. There were 28 Derbies that had a field size of 18 or more.

Only 1 horse from post 2 won the roses when the field size was 18 or more. That horse was Cannonade in 1974.

The 2 post has managed to finish third four times since 2006 and Ice Box finished second in 2012 from the 2 post. So, they can hit the board.

Basically, the 1 and 2 post positions are bad propositions for the win spot in the Derby because in recent years the field size is 18 or more.

Thru the history of the Derby back to 1930 there were 8 winners from the 1 hole but only 1 of those 8 could do it when the field size was 18 or higher (War Admiral).


Good information Caris .......I hope Chrome doesn't get post 1, 2 or 3

[mostpost]

Horses that get post 1 or 2 are up against it in a large field. Thru the history of the Derby ONLY one horse managed to win from post position 1 if the field size of the Derby was 18 or more. That horse was Triple Crown winner, War Admiral. There were 28 Derbies that had a field size of 18 or more.

Only 1 horse from post 2 won the roses when the field size was 18 or more. That horse was Cannonade in 1974.

The 2 post has managed to finish third four times since 2006 and Ice Box finished second in 2012 from the 2 post. So, they can hit the board.

Basically, the 1 and 2 post positions are bad propositions for the win spot in the Derby because in recent years the field size is 18 or more.

Thru the history of the Derby back to 1930 there were 8 winners from the 1 hole but only 1 of those 8 could do it when the field size was 18 or higher (War Admiral).
You missed one. Or somebody missed one. Black Gold won the Derby from post one in 1924.

The problem here is you can't just look at the horse in post position one and see whether he won the Derby or not. You also have to look to see if he was a logical contender.

In the 28 races we are looking at, four horses went off at odds of 5-1 or lower. Two of those won, Black Gold and War Admiral. The other two lost.

There were four others who went off between 6-1 and 10-1. Of course none of those won the Derby. Fifteen other starters from post position number one went off at odds of 10-1 or higher, including six who were more than 40-1.

You will notice that this does does not add up to 28. The rest were part of the mutual field, usually made up of the worst horses in the race.

So, in the races in which there was a strong expectation the one horse would win, he won half the time. In the races in which there was a strong to moderate expectation the one horse would win, he won 25% of the time. Not a terrible record.

[wreckless]

You missed one. Or somebody missed one. Black Gold won the Derby from post one in 1924.

The problem here is you can't just look at the horse in post position one and see whether he won the Derby or not. You also have to look to see if he was a logical contender.

In the 28 races we are looking at, four horses went off at odds of 5-1 or lower. Two of those won, Black Gold and War Admiral. The other two lost.

There were four others who went off between 6-1 and 10-1. Of course none of those won the Derby. Fifteen other starters from post position number one went off at odds of 10-1 or higher, including six who were more than 40-1.

You will notice that this does does not add up to 28. The rest were part of the mutual field, usually made up of the worst horses in the race.

So, in the races in which there was a strong expectation the one horse would win, he won half the time. In the races in which there was a strong to moderate expectation the one horse would win, he won 25% of the time. Not a terrible record.


awesome.

[Midnight Cruiser]

You missed one. Or somebody missed one. Black Gold won the Derby from post one in 1924.

The problem here is you can't just look at the horse in post position one and see whether he won the Derby or not. You also have to look to see if he was a logical contender.

In the 28 races we are looking at, four horses went off at odds of 5-1 or lower. Two of those won, Black Gold and War Admiral. The other two lost.

There were four others who went off between 6-1 and 10-1. Of course none of those won the Derby. Fifteen other starters from post position number one went off at odds of 10-1 or higher, including six who were more than 40-1.

You will notice that this does does not add up to 28. The rest were part of the mutual field, usually made up of the worst horses in the race.

So, in the races in which there was a strong expectation the one horse would win, he won half the time. In the races in which there was a strong to moderate expectation the one horse would win, he won 25% of the time. Not a terrible record.

Well played