x factor large heart 2014 what horses in this years derby have?? [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

turninforhome10

04-23-2014, 04:28 PM

raybo

04-27-2014, 02:10 AM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circulatory_system_of_the_horse#The_.22X_factor.22
The link is very useful. Knowing that the 4 major lines that X factor comes from, the horse must have one of the 4 on a direct tail female in order to inherit this.
The horses listed by Blue Chip do not have this feature so if he could share where this info came from?
California Chrome gets his through Princequillo from his 6th dam, Princess Matoaka by Princequillo.
Chito gets through 6th Dam Tsessebe by Buckpasser x Princequillo
General A Rod get through 7th dam Blue Hen Boudoir by Mahmoud
Commanding Curve through 7th dam Blue Hen Alablue by Blue Larkspur.
That what I have
This link is very good but more for genetics. http://www.pedigreepost.net/archives/XFactorDWDavidge.html
and this is my research http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=1230460&postcount=15

From my probably inadequate research, I think you have it pretty much nailed.

However, having the gene doesn't mean it will automatically produce a larger than normal heart. I would think that any horse who has the larger heart would have already displayed very strong indications of it, assuming the horse can run in the first place of course. CC looks like the most likely to have a larger than normal heart, at least from what we have seen so far. The others listed are good horses but not overly so, IMO.

LottaKash

04-27-2014, 02:21 AM

TRYING TO FIND HORSES IN THIS YEAR DERBY WITH X FACTOR LARGE HEART/HELP.THANKS.SILVERFOX.

Has this X-factor, have had anything to do with the majority of winners in the Derby ?

Just wondering....:confused:

raybo

04-27-2014, 02:39 AM

From the article previously linked:

"The X-factor may indeed be linked to one specific mutated gene located on the X chromosome, however, as with most genetic traits, a larger than normal heart more than likely depends on a number of contributing genes that must be present and dominant in order for a truly large heart to develop."

And:

"It must be emphasized that a large heart does not by itself guarantee a champion, or for that matter a winner. With all other factors being equal, conformation, environment, health, training methods and what have you, the large hearted individual certainly has an advantage. In addition, the fact that breeders in general, and more specifically, top echelon breeders have continued to breed the best to the best and hope for the best, the large heart gene most likely has been spread throughout the thoroughbred population to the extent that the majority of leading broodmare sires carry the large heart gene on the X chromosome. Short of testing the entire foal crop each year, and confirming by autopsy, it is impossible to expound on how many foals are produced each year with the possibility of expressing the large heart gene. Because of this, the advantage enjoyed by large heart individuals has decreased markedly."

raybo

04-27-2014, 02:45 AM

Has this X-factor, have had anything to do with the majority of winners in the Derby ?

Just wondering....:confused:

Yes, over 50% have, or could have had the XFactor gene. That however doesn't mean that all those winners expressed the gene through a larger than normal heart. Also, even with the XFactor, it's almost certain that other genes must also be present for the large heart to happen.

But, IMO, many of the Derby winners have had larger than normal hearts, regardless of how they got it. Secretariat absolutely had a much larger heart than normal (actually measured), and we all know what he did. According to at least one losing owner to Big Red, who said: "That's impossible!!", after his far "superior" horse was obliterated by Big Red, by 31 lengths in the Belmont..

LottaKash

04-27-2014, 02:47 AM

Yes, over 50% have, or could have had the XFactor gene. ..

Thx Raybo, for the speedy clarification...Interesting...:cool:

raybo

04-27-2014, 03:06 AM

Thx Raybo, for the speedy clarification...Interesting...:cool:

You're welcome. My better half got way off into breeding/pedigree a couple of years ago, and I got sucked in for a minute. The article linked earlier was one that I read, more than once, because as the author stated (in my words): the XFactor cannot be absolutely confirmed as the reason for the success that these horses expressed, either through their performances or through their offsprings' performances, but to call it only coincidental would be ridiculous.

nijinski

04-27-2014, 03:47 AM

raybo

04-27-2014, 04:02 AM

Just in case you want some more XFactor stuff, here's another interesting article: http://www.spiletta.com/UTHOF/hippology/xfactor.html

raybo

04-27-2014, 04:19 AM

Large heart is a big important factor and breeders do turn to the folks that
do the genetic research . The problem is the breeding does not always
create what is ideal . Each is a hybrid .
Big Red's full sister was not a success on the track so the real great ones who benefit from the trait certainly have to have other factors .

I agree, while a large heart certainly makes things easier, more oxygen in the blood equals more stamina, other factors can negate that advantage. And, great horses don't have to have a large heart, rather they can become great due to other factors, conformation, etc..

But, most breeders, if they have the option, everything else being equal, would opt for the XFactor possibility I would imagine, on both sides of the parents/grandparents. Even if their horse doesn't perform outstandingly on the track, it can still pass on the ability for greatness to its offspring.

The problem now, is that everybody knows about the XFactor, and most everyone is breeding with it in mind, at least to some degree or other. So, we now have a large population of horses with similar breeding preferences that include the XFactor.

Secretariat did not do well with his sons, regarding their racing performances, but some have been very good dam sires, and Secretariat has produced daughters that have been outstanding, both on the race track and in the breeding barn. The daughters of XFactor sires, of course, are the only ones that can receive the XFactor from their sire. Male horses can only receive the XFactor gene from their dam, while female horses can receive it from their sire or their dam.

BlueChip@DRF

04-27-2014, 07:37 AM

"while a large heart certainly makes things easier, more oxygen in the blood equals more stamina, other factors can negate that advantage. And, great horses don't have to have a large heart, rather they can become great due to other factors, conformation, etc.."

"Even if their horse doesn't perform outstandingly on the track, it can still pass on the ability for greatness to its offspring."

"The problem now, is that everybody knows about the XFactor, and most everyone is breeding with it in mind, at least to some degree or other. So, we now have a large population of horses with similar breeding preferences that include the XFactor."

"Male horses can only receive the XFactor gene from their dam, while female horses can receive it from their sire or their dam."

Absolute key phrases - especially the last one.

turninforhome10

04-27-2014, 08:14 AM

Has this X-factor, have had anything to do with the majority of winners in the Derby ?

Just wondering....:confused:
From my research
"39 winners of 59 Derbys since 1954 well over 50% just from 3 broodmare lines. Direct female descendants back to War Admiral, Mahmoud, Blue Larkspur foundation mares through tail female".
Pretty impressive.

Tom

04-27-2014, 08:58 AM

Good thread - never heard of this stuff before.
I'm not into breeding much, but this is worth looking into. :ThmbUp:

raybo

04-27-2014, 11:39 AM

Good thread - never heard of this stuff before.
I'm not into breeding much, but this is worth looking into. :ThmbUp:

Well, it does explain some things about certain horses, that otherwise could not be explained. But, for most of us, the XFactor knowledge being used, in what we do, can get us in lots of trouble. :lol:

Secretariats heart was more than 2 1/2 times the size of the normal thoroughbred heart weight of 7-8 pounds. Shams also was larger than the average.

Eclipse's heart, which many believe was the initial case of this gene, was 14 pounds, I think, while Secretariat's was about 22 pounds.

And, of course, Zenyatta got the XFactor from her mother, who got it from Secretariat.

Now that you know about it, before next Saturday you probably need to decide whether you will use that knowledge or not. Why? California Chrome is filling his dance card nicely for this year's Kentucky Derby. California Chrome is expressing his Dam's heart Love The Chase, by Not for Love, out of Dance Numbers by Northern Dancer. :bang:

turninforhome10

04-27-2014, 12:41 PM

Well, it does explain some things about certain horses, that otherwise could not be explained. But, for most of us, the XFactor knowledge being used, in what we do, can get us in lots of trouble. :lol:

Secretariats heart was more than 2 1/2 times the size of the normal thoroughbred heart weight of 7-8 pounds. Shams also was larger than the average.

Eclipse's heart, which many believe was the initial case of this gene, was 14 pounds, I think, while Secretariat's was about 22 pounds.

And, of course, Zenyatta got the XFactor from her mother, who got it from Secretariat.

Now that you know about it, before next Saturday you probably need to decide whether you will use that knowledge or not. Why? California Chrome is filling his dance card nicely for this year's Kentucky Derby. California Chrome is expressing his Dam's heart Love The Chase, by Not for Love, out of Dance Numbers by Northern Dancer. :bang:
California Chrome gets the x-factor from Princess Matoaka by Princequillo his 6th dam. The x-factor is inherited from Mitochondrial DNA which can be only inherited from a direct maternal source ie tail female. See enclosed
As far as Zenyatta goes she gets hers directly from Lexington himself, Zenyatta has no Secretariat in her pedigree. Also see Sham's Brood mare Sire.

raybo

04-27-2014, 12:51 PM

California Chrome gets the x-factor from Princess Matoaka by Princequillo his 6th dam. The x-factor is inherited from Mitochondrial DNA which can be only inherited from a direct maternal source ie tail female. See enclosed

He could have gotten it that way also, but, out of the Northern Dancer and Numbered Account mating (both suspected carriers of the XFactor) came the dam, Dance Number, who could have passed the gene to its son, Not For Love, who could have passed the gene to his daughter, Love The Chase, who of course could have then passed the gene to California Chrome.

turninforhome10

04-27-2014, 12:59 PM

He could have gotten it that way also, but, out of the Northern Dancer and Numbered Account mating (both suspected carriers of the XFactor) came the dam, Dance Number, who could have passed the gene to its son, Not For Love, who could have passed the gene to his daughter, Love The Chase, who of course could have then passed the gene to California Chrome.
See page 5 and 6 http://books.google.com/books?id=D1rr7NMxAZ8C&pg=PA280&lpg=PA280&dq=equine+mitochondrial+dna+thoroughbred&source=bl&ots=ZW777WlbBc&sig=C-XQo4YasKi7O2dzv-qs7ol2ar4&hl=en&sa=X&ei=9zZdU4i6MYS-sQTgxoLACw&ved=0CDkQ6AEwAjgK#v=onepage&q=equine%20mitochondrial%20dna%20thoroughbred&f=false

raybo

04-27-2014, 01:01 PM

California Chrome gets the x-factor from Princess Matoaka by Princequillo his 6th dam. The x-factor is inherited from Mitochondrial DNA which can be only inherited from a direct maternal source ie tail female. See enclosed
As far as Zenyatta goes she gets hers directly from Lexington himself, Zenyatta has no Secretariat in her pedigree. Also see Sham's Brood mare Sire.

You're correct about Secretariat not being in Z's pedigree, don't know where I got that from, but I have looked up pedigrees for quite a few horses recently and must have gotten my wires crossed somewhere. :blush:

Regarding Sham, he got his from his dam, Sequoia, who got her's from her sire, Princequillo, unless I'm missing something. :confused:

raybo

04-27-2014, 01:15 PM

See page 5 and 6 http://books.google.com/books?id=D1rr7NMxAZ8C&pg=PA280&lpg=PA280&dq=equine+mitochondrial+dna+thoroughbred&source=bl&ots=ZW777WlbBc&sig=C-XQo4YasKi7O2dzv-qs7ol2ar4&hl=en&sa=X&ei=9zZdU4i6MYS-sQTgxoLACw&ved=0CDkQ6AEwAjgK#v=onepage&q=equine%20mitochondrial%20dna%20thoroughbred&f=false

I assume you are pointing towards the statement that "mitochondria are only passed to the offspring through the egg", meaning through the female, however, "there is evidence for an occasional transfer through sperm", meaning the male. So, just because it is more frequently passed through the female it can also be passed through the male, if the offspring is female of course.

turninforhome10

04-27-2014, 01:20 PM

You're correct about Secretariat not being in Z's pedigree, don't know where I got that from, but I have looked up pedigrees for quite a few horses recently and must have gotten my wires crossed somewhere. :blush:

Regarding Sham, he got his from his dam, Sequoia, who got her's from her sire, Princequillo, unless I'm missing something. :confused:
Perfect, a direct line. Let me use this so observe better. See enclosed The horses highlighted in green are considered x-trail donors.
Lets break down some past winners from the beginning, which will also let us find some current ancestors that we could actually put into our handicapping. Would this be better served by building whole new thread talking about pedigrees?

turninforhome10

04-27-2014, 01:41 PM

I assume you are pointing towards the statement that "mitochondria are only passed to the offspring through the egg", meaning through the female, however, "there is evidence for an occasional transfer through sperm", meaning the male. So, just because it is more frequently passed through the female it can also be passed through the male, if the offspring is female of course.
You caught me. This would give credence to what you are saying. When you start to move towards the sire as a donor the studying get much murkier. I prefer to use the idea that MtDNA is easier to follow by looking at direct female line. My reasoning is that the chances of these traits being passed are greater due to greater chance of dominance.
The reason I personally follow the x-trails is that more often than not the best lines were owned by the wealthiest people and the best judges of horse flesh. Most of the time these connections would have access to the best for the best. If the lines stayed in closed hands, this would speak to the performance both racing and breeding.

raybo

04-27-2014, 02:02 PM

You caught me. This would give credence to what you are saying. When you start to move towards the sire as a donor the studying get much murkier. I prefer to use the idea that MtDNA is easier to follow by looking at direct female line. My reasoning is that the chances of these traits being passed are greater due to greater chance of dominance.
The reason I personally follow the x-trails is that more often than not the best lines were owned by the wealthiest people and the best judges of horse flesh. Most of the time these connections would have access to the best for the best. If the lines stayed in closed hands, this would speak to the performance both racing and breeding.

I generally agree with you that it is much more consistent, when tracing the XFactor through generations, to concentrate on the dams. However, it is proven that sires can pass their XFactor through their daughters, who then of course can become dams and continue that sires XFactor line. If the sire never has any daughters, then his XFactor line stops with him, but even a single daughter can continue that sire's XFactor line through her offspring.

As I said earlier, for most of us, the XFactor thing can get us in lots of trouble, because we "assume" that the gene gets passed on every time it is possible, ie., father to daughter and dam to son and daughter. When we assume that the gene has been passed, and we add additional weighting to those "perceived" recipients we then set ourselves for disappointment when the gene didn't actually get passed on, or didn't get expressed by the foal.

I try to play it safer by including "all" of the possible XFactor horses, which dilutes the XFactor weighting making it less important in my handicapping of individual races. However, I can still get into lots of trouble when there is only one or two horses in the field that can have the gene, while all the others absolutely cannot have it. So, I err on the side of existing performances, by all horses, and only add a tiny bit of weighting for the XFactor possibility when both the XFactor can be there, and, the horse has also displayed those XFactor "symptoms" in its performances, example: California Chrome, etc..

Its like anything else in racing, horses can look great on paper, and in theory, but until they express that greatness in real races, we probably are better off not getting carried away by supposition.

raybo

04-27-2014, 02:14 PM

Perfect, a direct line. Let me use this so observe better. See enclosed The horses highlighted in green are considered x-trail donors.
Lets break down some past winners from the beginning, which will also let us find some current ancestors that we could actually put into our handicapping. Would this be better served by building whole new thread talking about pedigrees?

Wow! That would entail a whole lot of work. :lol:

You would have to first of all go all the way back to Eclipse, then trace all his daughters, all of their sons and daughters, then all of the son's daughters and all the daughters sons and daughters, etc., etc., etc.........

If someone is a subscriber to a pedigree site that has the XFactor filtering, it would make things much easier, assuming that filtering includes "all" XFactor possibilities, both the female side and the male side..

raybo

04-27-2014, 02:19 PM

A great example of a horse who I would bet a lot of money that he both, has the XFactor gene, and has a larger than normal heart, is Wise Dan.

fmolf

04-27-2014, 09:25 PM

A great example of a horse who I would bet a lot of money that he both, has the XFactor gene, and has a larger than normal heart, is Wise Dan.
Does he just have the Gene or is their concrete proof that his heart is larger?I do not believe in this he has the gene stuff?...Seems like voodoo type stuff for me.If over half the horses running in the derby have it,what good is it anyway,if you need other handicapping factors to whittle down the contenders?..Turf breeding i believe in because you can actually see a larger hoof and a smaller more athletic hind end.....

raybo

04-27-2014, 10:31 PM

Does he just have the Gene or is their concrete proof that his heart is larger?I do not believe in this he has the gene stuff?...Seems like voodoo type stuff for me.If over half the horses running in the derby have it,what good is it anyway,if you need other handicapping factors to whittle down the contenders?..Turf breeding i believe in because you can actually see a larger hoof and a smaller more athletic hind end.....

If there was concrete proof that Wise Dan has the gene and a larger than normal heart, I would not have used the phrase "I would bet" I would have used the word "I know for a fact". We'll just have wait and see if they measure his heart after he passes. But, if he goes to stud and produces dams that become great race horses or great race horse producers, that will be enough proof for me.

Whether or not you believe that Secretariat and other great horses and great producers have, or had, the gene that produces a larger heart, is neither here nor there, the medical research has already been done and hearts measured that strongly suggests that it is in fact too coincidental to not be fact.

This has been studied for many decades and the evidence is there, if you choose to not believe it, that's fine, I won't try to convince you because I really don't care one way or the other.

Delta Cone

04-27-2014, 10:55 PM

If there was concrete proof that Wise Dan has the gene and a larger than normal heart, I would not have used the phrase "I would bet" I would have used the word "I know for a fact". We'll just have wait and see if they measure his heart after he passes. But, if he goes to stud and produces dams that become great race horses or great race horse producers, that will be enough proof for me.

Wise Dan is a gelding.

raybo

04-27-2014, 10:58 PM

Wise Dan is a gelding.

Dang! That sucks!!

I guess I'll just have to wait until he dies and see if they make public the size of his heart.

cashmachine

04-27-2014, 11:37 PM

raybo

04-27-2014, 11:47 PM

How do you use horse's pedigree for betting? I guess it is mostly good only in the beginning of racing career, when horse did not have many starts? Or you would still give horse some credit for belonging to a good family even if she did not show anything extra ordinal at the track?

My personal opinion, as a handicapper, is that pedigree is most useful with young horses, 2 and 3 yos. Once they reach 4 I rely totally on the "numbers" they have produced.

cashmachine

04-27-2014, 11:59 PM

My personal opinion, as a handicapper, is that pedigree is most useful with young horses, 2 and 3 yos. Once they reach 4 I rely totally on the "numbers" they have produced.
How many starts you would say is enough to rely totally on numbers? I mean, some horses run more often than other, and they probably can be judged earlier.

fmolf

04-28-2014, 05:06 PM

How many starts you would say is enough to rely totally on numbers? I mean, some horses run more often than other, and they probably can be judged earlier.
two maybe three...first at a route or first on turf...three tries is enough for me...alli was saying Ray was how do you use it if 50% of all horses bred today have the gene.No way of knowing which horse actually has a larger heart than normal?

turninforhome10

04-28-2014, 06:26 PM

two maybe three...first at a route or first on turf...three tries is enough for me...alli was saying Ray was how do you use it if 50% of all horses bred today have the gene.No way of knowing which horse actually has a larger heart than normal?
A tedious and very time consuming study I did a few years back, concentrated on all female lines of Princequillo, Mahmoud, Blue Larkspur and War Admiral. I built family trees and then concentrated on all the modern ancestors that were in production and followed their offspring. Had roughly 50 mares that I followed with stable mail.
In a Freakonomics moment I found that a good portion of the group
1) Stayed in the hands of a few rich breeders and were not sold unless an estate liquidation
2) Crossed better on certain stallion lines ie 13-c (Mr Prospector Seattle Slew)http://www.bloodlines.net/TB/Families/Family13c.htm and 8-c(Storm Cat)
http://www.bloodlines.net/TB/Families/Family8c.htm
3) The data, while very loosely compiled, showed that these lines accounted for a much higher than average of Stakes winners and Stakes producers. The data would have been biased by me due to looking for horses that were at high end tracks with high end breeders and owners so there could be holes. It was intended for my own motives.

I did quite well in both finding winners at racing and ironically also at the sales. This was how I found I'll Have Another after his maiden run and successfully predicted him winning the Derby in FEB. Cashed huge.

To give you an idea of the enormity of the offspring here and granted the db I was using was not updated since 2004 (requiring a lot of extra homework), I found Princequillo alone had 1651 mares born after 1995, the family is 7 or 8k if all are included. It is a big report but enclosed below.
This is a practical application of pedigree capping but by no means conventional and requires more work than most would put in. I did bloodstock work and was the chief consultant for a large breeding outfit in IA. So while I was doing it for work, it was useful for following horses currently running.
I am a big pedigree nerd and have been since 1996. I have been very fortunate that quite a few times in the last 20 years, I have been paid by large farms to do nothing but study pedigrees. I like to think I know what I am talking about, but don't we all. :rolleyes:

fmolf

04-28-2014, 06:31 PM

very interesting stuff for sure.My question is still how to use the large heart chromosome info in top end races if 50% or more of the horses carry it?

raybo

04-28-2014, 11:01 PM

very interesting stuff for sure.My question is still how to use the large heart chromosome info in top end races if 50% or more of the horses carry it?

That would be up to you. I personally weight those that "could" have the gene and thus, "could" have the larger heart, a bit higher than those that absolutely cannot have the gene (a "subjective" weighting, not an "objective or "a number" weighting), due to their not being in a line in which the gene is probably present.

But, I also use the "numbers" each horse has run so far in their careers, so the XFactor portion is not a "primary" or "objective" factor in my analysis, rather more of a subjective "tie breaker" factor in young horses. As I said, once a horse reaches 4 years old I usually have a pretty good idea if a horse has the gene and a larger heart, by the performances he/she has displayed up to that point, and I consequently expect a bit more from a horse like that in future races.

Also as I mentioned earlier, Wise Dan comes from a line that probably has the XFactor gene, and his performances convince me that he is expressing the gene and the larger heart. Zenyatta is another one like that, and of course Secretariat was also, and after his death that was confirmed, as well as Sham's. There are many other examples of probable XFactor gene/large heart horses throughout history, since Eclipse, who is the suspected beginning of the mutated "XFactor" gene in thoroughbred horses.

So, is the XFactor the Holy Grail? No, absolutely not, but it is another tool in the tool box, for me anyway.

But, if you are an owner or breeder, the XFactor could well be the Holy Grail of pedigree research.

raybo

04-28-2014, 11:15 PM

very interesting stuff for sure.My question is still how to use the large heart chromosome info in top end races if 50% or more of the horses carry it?

By the way, the XFactor isn't a "chromosome", it is a "mutated gene" carried on a chromosome.

Longshot

04-29-2014, 02:24 PM

raybo

04-29-2014, 03:06 PM

I was sent an article that said that a horse with Buckpasser in the X Passing Position may have inherited the X Factor. Those of you that know
something about breeding and the X Factor is this correct?

If this is correct from the pedigree charts I see California Chrome, Chitu, Ride on Curlin, Tapiture, Uncle Sigh, Vicar's in Trouble, Vinceremos, Wicked Strong and Wildcat Red as possibly having the X Factor.

Buckpasser, indeed, could carry the XFactor gene. Going back 5 generations we have:

Mare: Pink Domino > Son: Sweep > Daughter: Brushup > Son: War Admiral > Daughter: Busanda, all of which are suspected of having the XFactor gene, and Buckpasser is the son of Busanda, so he too could have the gene.

I haven't looked at all the horses you listed but keep in mind, the XFactor can only be passed from father to daughter or mother to son or daughter. The father cannot pass the gene to his sons.

raybo

04-29-2014, 03:38 PM

Vinceremos is the only one of the horses you listed that I could not, for sure, say that he could have the gene, all the others could have it. But, just because a horse could have it, doesn't mean it does, or passed it on to a particular offspring. And even if the gene exists, that doesn't mean the horse will express it with a larger heart or in its performances.

Good indications of the XFactor being present, keeping in mind that the possibility must be present in the first place, through it's parents (keeping in mind the father to daughter, or mother to son or daughter requirement), are: did it perform brilliantly on the track, or did it's offspring perform brilliantly, or their offspring performed brilliantly, etc.. There are some lines that are almost guaranteed recipients of the gene due to their outstanding performances and/or their offspring's performances, and/or evidence through actual measurement of the heart size after death (which is the very best evidence of all of course).

I wouldn't get too carried away with the possibility of a horse having the gene, until its performances provide further evidence.

There are examples of certain horses almost certainly having the gene, and the large heart, simply by their stellar performances, most recently - California Chrome comes to mind. If this horse keeps going with it's great performances, the evidence will be overwhelming, IMO.

turninforhome10

04-29-2014, 05:44 PM

Spend 5-10 mins reading the enclosed and it can save you all alot of questions. Buckpasser carries x through his Dam Busanda who is a double copy mare. She is by War Admiral (donor) and out of Blue Larkspur mare(donor). She is also a very important decedent of the major line of La Troienne.
The link
http://books.google.com/books?id=S36O25M_6C0C&pg=PA251&lpg=PA251&dq=racehorse+breeding+theories+a+factor&source=bl&ots=-sxoPw6MjD&sig=aexTK1U_P3do_JkXV6l_JBIK7js&hl=en&sa=X&ei=Ex1gU7vYGJDMsQT-hYL4CQ&ved=0CDoQ6AEwAg#v=onepage&q=racehorse%20breeding%20theories%20a%20factor&f=false

dansan

04-29-2014, 06:50 PM

Calvin Borel he's due LOL

davew

05-04-2014, 12:03 PM

By the way, the XFactor isn't a "chromosome", it is a "mutated gene" carried on a chromosome.

Are you sure? If a gene than could it be isolated and then tested for in the blood. Has/is this being done? (Would be helpful in the buying/selling decision of foals)

raybo

05-04-2014, 01:12 PM

Are you sure? If a gene than could it be isolated and then tested for in the blood. Has/is this being done? (Would be helpful in the buying/selling decision of foals)

Don't know for sure, but if it can be tested for, that still doesn't mean it will produce the large heart. The best we can do is look at performances and take educated guesses as to the presence of the large heart in XFactor lines, at least until autopsy time anyway. Although, it would seem the size of the heart could be determined via ultrasound?

turninforhome10

05-05-2014, 03:59 PM

turninforhome10

05-05-2014, 04:19 PM

It was also a big weekend for the foundation mare Brighton View. She is the tail-female line of On Fire Baby,Untapable and Danza.
http://www.pedigreequery.com/on+fire+baby
http://www.pedigreequery.com/untapable
http://www.pedigreequery.com/danza7
This is the line of Olympio and Winchell has done well with it.
Here is some later descendants, that some might find it useful to look for family members.

turninforhome10

05-09-2014, 05:58 PM

First 2 yo race at CD in 2014 and the x-factor runs 1-2 as big chalk

:4: Cinco Charlie http://www.pedigreequery.com/cinco+charlie Mahmoud
:7: Far Right http://www.pedigreequery.com/far+right Princequillo and immediate family of California Chrome.
I would watch the :6: Stonebriar-http://www.pedigreequery.com/stonebriar
It is my firm belief through a strong study of Secretariat that it is the mare Cinq A Sept that gives the large heart.

turninforhome10

05-09-2014, 06:21 PM

Cinq A Sept http://www.reines-de-course.com/Articles/Articles%20C/Cinq%20A%20Sept.htm

turninforhome10

05-20-2014, 11:06 AM

The Belmont Stakes historically has been the true test of stayer. 1 1/2 miles as a 3yo and only one chance to make to the trip.
My research has consisted of looking for only those horse that come from the true female x-trail (mtDNA on female tail line). I have only looked for those horses that carry one of the big 4
War Admiral-Triple Crown winner
Blue Larkspur-Belmont Stakes winner
Mahmoud-Epsom Derby
Princequillo-Jockey Club Gold Cup
When going through the recent last few years, the research revealed nothing remarkable as far as numbers go.
From 2013 we have
2000 Commendable-Cequillo x Princequillo
1997 Touch Gold-Happy Mood x Mahmoud
1990 Go And Go- Wichuraiana x War Admiral
1986 Danzig Connection- Classicist x Princequillo
Nice horses but not the numbers of the KY Derby.
Now is when it gets interesting
1978-Affirmed-Native Valor x Mahmoud
1977- Seattle Slew-Myrtlewood x Blue Larkspur
1973- Secretariat- Somethingroyal x Princequillo
The last 3 Triple Crown winners is when the hair kind of stood up on the back neck.
1970-High Echelon-Native Charger x Princequillo
1967-Damascus-Bar Nothing x Blue Larkspur
1957 Gallant Man-Majideh x Mahmoud
That would be the list
10 winners
3 Triple Crown winners
This years Belmont Stakes carriers are
California Chrome- Princequillo
Commanding Curve-Blue Larkspur
Horses carrying possible x-factors donors
Tonalist-Buckpasser
Ride On Curlin- Storm Cat
Records have been double checked. Any thoughts?

turninforhome10

05-20-2014, 11:46 AM

Or better yet, which of the probables would you breed to in order to win the Belmont?

raybo

05-20-2014, 03:52 PM

IMO, the Xfactor possibility must accompany performances that suggest a higher possibility of having and expressing the gene. So, with respect to these 4 horses, for breeding, specifically to win the Belmont, my breeding order of preference would be:

1. California Chrome - Due to his highly consistent, variable running style, performances thus far. I think he can run any distance, from sprints to long routes in graded stakes company. Very flexible and has a lot of heart, physically large or not, but of all 4 horses I would say CC has the best chance of actually having a larger than normal heart as he can run fast early and still finish strong, a tell-tale sign of better than average respiratory systems, both heart and lungs.

2. Ride On Curlin - Has run 11 races thus far and has finished out of the money only 3 times, and is a come from behind horse who expends his energy very late, which is important at the Belmont due to the long stretch and deep surface.

4. (tied) Commanding Curve - Out of the money in only 2 of his 7 starts, and has run 1 1/4m finishing 2nd in the Derby, losing to CC. Right running style for the Belmont.

3. (tied) Tonalist - Lightly raced and never over 1 1/8m, but he has beaten some good horses, and was 1st or 2nd in 3 of his 4 starts. Need to see more races from this one.

turninforhome10

06-04-2014, 05:00 PM

Belmont Large Heart
The previous contenders
Cali Chrome
Commanding Curve
General A Rod (he will run a big race with a smaller field and less chance to get in trouble)
New Shooters
Matuszak- Mahmoud through 6th dam Mumtaz and then picks up a Buckpasser.( This horse could be a nice animal and with Mott anything is possible)

After looking at the last 60 years of the Belmont it also seems that Man O War on the tail female has also done quite well. Will post numbers later, took 4 days off to get ready for Saturday.
With Man O War comes Matterhorn who gets from 8th dam Firetop who is the ancestress of Nijinsky II.

BlueChip@DRF

06-04-2014, 05:49 PM

Matterhorn comes from the family (8-f) that took the 2004, 2006, 2007 Belmont.

turninforhome10

06-04-2014, 06:15 PM

Matterhorn comes from the family (8-f) that took the 2004, 2006, 2007 Belmont.
Jazil and Rags to Riches are relatives with Matterhorn all tracing back to Torpenhow. Nice

sbcaris

06-29-2014, 07:06 PM

To All: I have found that having Buckpasser in the X passing position is a dynamite tool for the Belmont Stakes when it is combined with final fraction time of 37 4/5 or less in a stake race at 9 furlongs.

The winner of this years Belmont stakes, Tonalist qualified on this angle. So too, did the place finisher, Commissioner, and the two horses that dead heated for fourth place-- California Chrome and Wicked Strong.

So, four of the five horses that comprised the superfecta this year all fit the above criteria.

In fact using the above criteria has been very successful in the Belmont stakes since 1992.