View Full Version : Keeneland 4/24 picks
letswastemoney
04-22-2014, 10:51 PM
Wednesday's card isn't too exciting, so let's aim for Thursday...
Race 1
I don't particularly like the breeding on the two Wesley Ward horses in here. But this is a two year old race right? Don't we HAVE to use them? One of them is a War Front with an Irish dam, which at first glance signals distance, not 4 1/2 F.
I may regret this, but I think I like :2: Kalamity Jane (8/1), :5: Haveyouseenmypappy (5/1) and :6: Anniebear (4/1).
They have more suitable short distance sires and all of their trainers look okay.
letswastemoney
04-22-2014, 11:15 PM
Race 2
The pace projector thinks the pace will be fast.
:3: Bowman's Cause (4/1) :4: Foolhardy (6/1) and :6: Niederzel (8/1) are the three main threats from behind.
But, I'm hesitant to leave out :7: Regulus (4/1) as he takes a big drop here.
letswastemoney
04-22-2014, 11:26 PM
Race 3
On polytrack numbers, :2: Olympic Avenue (3/1) and :7: Brief Reign (5/1) are the best ones.
:6: Indygo F M A (4/1) gets a big trainer switch from Drysdale to Wesley Ward. She's my third choice.
letswastemoney
04-23-2014, 02:31 AM
Race 4
It's time for a deranged pick.
:3: Causeworthy's (20/1) first two starts do not matter too much, because those efforts came in sprints. This is a Giant's Causeway stretching out to nine furlongs. Maybe he pulls the upset.
The more obvious picks are :9: Hines (5/2), :10: Blarp (3/1) and :11: Stroll to Victory (4/1).
letswastemoney
04-23-2014, 01:03 PM
Race 5
The pace projector thinks this race will favor early speed.
Out of the four horses projected near the lead, I will take :3: Dillinger (7/2), :7: Stevis Man (20/1) and :10: Breaking Ball (5/1).
It looks like Stevis Man set a fast pace last time and still held on well enough for third.
letswastemoney
04-23-2014, 04:00 PM
Race 6
I have nothing creative for this race. Although some of the outside horses look okay, :1: Can'thelpbelievin (5/2) and :3: Scoria (4/1) are the class of the field from facing horses such as Gala Award, Mr. Speaker, Storming Inti and We Miss Artie.
One of them should win.
letswastemoney
04-23-2014, 10:55 PM
Race 7
With Whatthecatdrugin and a couple of others speedballs entered, in what could qualify as a G3 event, this favors closers even without looking at the pace projector.
The two best, and reliable, closers look like :7: Exothermic (15/1) and :8: Charming Kitten (3/1).
:6: Sockarooni (30/1) has been running well at Turfway and could create monster payoffs in the exotics, if not win.
letswastemoney
04-24-2014, 01:55 AM
Race 8
I have no interest in trying to be cute here. The former Euro, :9: Romantica (2/1), should handle these.
letswastemoney
04-24-2014, 02:03 AM
Race 9
:8: Exultant (9/2) is the best on numbers.
Not sure any of the longshots have a shot here, so I'm going to chalk out with :6: Manx (4/1) and :9: Format V. (4/1) as well.
letswastemoney
04-24-2014, 02:41 AM
To be honest, I'll skip Race 1.
lamboguy
04-24-2014, 08:17 AM
glad to see 2 days in a row with 2 yo races to finish off the meet. part of the reason why we didn't see that many this year was the weather, but a very small part.
win1lose2
04-24-2014, 12:13 PM
glad to see 2 days in a row with 2 yo races to finish off the meet. part of the reason why we didn't see that many this year was the weather, but a very small part.
Lambo I'm a beginner can u explain why u are glad? Do u like them getting track experience? I find 2yo impossible to cap...
lamboguy
04-24-2014, 12:18 PM
Lambo I'm a beginner can u explain why u are glad? Do u like them getting track experience? I find 2yo impossible to cap...its the future of the sport. a horse has to start somewhere!
dartman51
04-24-2014, 01:05 PM
KEENELAND 1
It is 2yo, and always tough for me, but I do like the :9: at a price, along with the :5: , and :1: . :ThmbUp:
lamboguy
04-24-2014, 01:06 PM
KEENELAND 1
It is 2yo, and always tough for me, but I do like the :9: at a price, along with the :5: , and :1: . :ThmbUp:the 9 don't have a chinamans chance in this race
dartman51
04-24-2014, 01:27 PM
the 9 don't have a chinamans chance in this race
You were right about that. :D
lamboguy
04-24-2014, 01:29 PM
You were right about that. :Di better be on that one!
she might be alright in her next race for Indiana Breds
Racetrack Playa
04-24-2014, 02:57 PM
r6:2::5: :2:Morning Calm Hot Trainer:)
r7:5::11:
r8:8::10:
r9:8::11:
La billos
04-24-2014, 03:40 PM
I'll tag for a p4:
:1:
:1: :5: :9: :11:
:9: :10:
ALL
for 96$
letswastemoney
04-24-2014, 03:54 PM
Lambo I'm a beginner can u explain why u are glad? Do u like them getting track experience? I find 2yo impossible to cap...
Trainer 1st time percentages and breeding. You have to know which sires are suited for short, little races.
I messed up slightly on the first race, underestimating one of the Wesley Ward entries. Ward usually wins around 20% with first time starters, as does Pletcher, a couple others.
Some sires that are very good with first time starters: Yes It's True, Tiz Wonderful, Divine Park, Indian Charlie, Tale of the Cat...I can't name them all off the top of my head. I get the feeling Quality Road will be very good with first timers as his progeny emerge on the track.
La billos
04-24-2014, 04:10 PM
I'll tag for a p4:
:1:
:1: :5: :9: :11:
:9: :10:
ALL
for 96$
Garcia going with the big run from last to lose by a head :/
Lets try that again with the p3
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