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View Full Version : Churchill takeout rise - will it affect your play?


horses4courses
04-21-2014, 03:53 PM
With the recent announcement of the hike in takeout for the upcoming meet at Churchill Downs,
how do you plan to deal with it?

andtheyreoff
04-21-2014, 03:56 PM
I will be betting there only Oaks and Derby Day- and that is only because I will be there ( :cool: ). Everything else is no bueno.

Stillriledup
04-21-2014, 04:41 PM
No CD bets, not Derby either.

tzipi
04-21-2014, 04:44 PM
No CD bets, not Derby either.

Yeah, I'll just bet the Derby and that's it. Been cutting back my horse racing betting drastically the last year or so anyway.

riskman
04-21-2014, 04:47 PM
Will wager on the Oaks and Derby plus route turf and stakes that interest me. Day to day I am out.

andtheyreoff
04-21-2014, 04:49 PM
And in case anyone was wondering, the handle for opening day last year was $6,426,884 (if my math is correct- they don't publish handle figures). That's the number to "beat" if you will.

Longshot6977
04-21-2014, 06:14 PM
With the recent announcement of the hike in takeout for the upcoming meet at Churchill Downs,
how do you plan to deal with it?

The poll is missing a choice as posters are saying:

"I will bet the Derby and/or Oaks only and not bet other race days".
That is my choice. However, I suspect their handle will not drop too drastically due to large bettors and whales still taking advantage of their rebates and values they uncover in the pools, IMO.

horses4courses
04-21-2014, 06:21 PM
The poll is missing a choice as posters are saying:

"I will bet the Derby and/or Oaks only and not bet other race days".
That is my choice. However, I suspect their handle will not drop too drastically due to large bettors and whales still taking advantage of their rebates and values they uncover in the pools, IMO.

I think that situation is covered by the "bet less" option.

I'm pretty sure that most people on here who will only play those two big races,
normally would play any number of races at CD during the Spring meet.

It's going to be interesting to see their handle numbers, both for Oaks/Derby weekend, and the entire meet.

lamboguy
04-21-2014, 06:24 PM
i gave up on Churchill Downs a long time ago along with Calder and Fairgrounds. i quit Hoosier Park and Indiana last year, and this year i gave up on Finger Lakes and Canterburry.

chances are i will probably give up most North American tracks and take up Hong Kong, Macau, Australia, Korea and Viet Nam. i can't pick them here, so i figure i can't do any worse going further east.

whodoyoulike
04-21-2014, 06:29 PM
The poll is missing a choice as posters are saying:

"I will bet the Derby and/or Oaks only and not bet other race days".
That is my choice. However, I suspect their handle will not drop too drastically due to large bettors and whales still taking advantage of their rebates and values they uncover in the pools, IMO.

Sounds like the large bettors and whales may soon be playing only with themselves (no pun intended (well maybe a little)).

Stillriledup
04-21-2014, 06:33 PM
The poll is missing a choice as posters are saying:

"I will bet the Derby and/or Oaks only and not bet other race days".
That is my choice. However, I suspect their handle will not drop too drastically due to large bettors and whales still taking advantage of their rebates and values they uncover in the pools, IMO.

While rebates will rise a little bit due to increased takeout, the effective takeout for the rebate bettor will be raised also.....so, rebate bettors are going to have to "pay more" to wager on Churchill and since they're extremely price sensitive, i'm fairly certain many them will bet less due to the increased effective takeout.

fmolf
04-21-2014, 06:47 PM
While rebates will rise a little bit due to increased takeout, the effective takeout for the rebate bettor will be raised also.....so, rebate bettors are going to have to "pay more" to wager on Churchill and since they're extremely price sensitive, i'm fairly certain many them will bet less due to the increased effective takeout.
store A and store B are selling a loaf of bread for a dollar,next week store A raises the price 15 cents for the same loaf.Where will you buy your bread?
Basic economics taught i believe in the fifth grade!(grade my wife teaches)These economic genuises just do not get it.Churchill and any other track that they own will not get a nickel of my wagering dollar!Ifi did not love the handicapping and figuring i'd start to learn to count cards and play blackjack.The casinos welcome their customers,give them rooms and free drinks.Though not really free it makes losing easier.... :D

Stillriledup
04-21-2014, 06:56 PM
store A and store B are selling a loaf of bread for a dollar,next week store A raises the price 15 cents for the same loaf.Where will you buy your bread?
Basic economics taught i believe in the fifth grade!(grade my wife teaches)These economic genuises just do not get it.Churchill and any other track that they own will not get a nickel of my wagering dollar!Ifi did not love the handicapping and figuring i'd start to learn to count cards and play blackjack.The casinos welcome their customers,give them rooms and free drinks.Though not really free it makes losing easier.... :D

The only reason you would purchase bread at the 15 cent raise is if the bread itself got better in some fashion. CD, inc is essentially saying that the takeout raise is going to provide higher purses for horsemen and that will not only increase the field sizes, but should attract better horses.

I'm pretty sure that slots tracks have already tried raising purses with slots money and that didn't necessarily attract better horses, bigger fields or higher betting handles.

But, they feel this is the right thing to do, they have priced their product to try and maximize revenue, its up to the consumer to determine if they are willing to pay more for essentially the same product.

therussmeister
04-21-2014, 07:39 PM
store A and store B are selling a loaf of bread for a dollar,next week store A raises the price 15 cents for the same loaf.Where will you buy your bread?
Basic economics taught i believe in the fifth grade!(grade my wife teaches)These economic genuises just do not get it.Churchill and any other track that they own will not get a nickel of my wagering dollar!Ifi did not love the handicapping and figuring i'd start to learn to count cards and play blackjack.The casinos welcome their customers,give them rooms and free drinks.Though not really free it makes losing easier.... :D
The problem with your analogy is tracks don't really offer the same product. It may seem the same, but, maybe for reasons unknown, many of us do better at certain tracks than others. Often this discrepancy cannot be explained by takeout rates.

As for me, since I play a lot of superfectas, ironically any track I choose to replace Churchill with will charge me a higher takeout rate in the supers.

bgbootha
04-21-2014, 08:08 PM
I didn't play a great deal of CD anyway, but this solidifies that I will have to have a solid very solid play to put my money there.

I will play Oaks/Derby double
the Derby and the Dery pick 4

Other than those two days, won't play much of anything there. I am just afraid others will follow

jballscalls
04-21-2014, 08:56 PM
I hit the wrong one. I hit "I'll play the same amount" but since that amount is zero I actually fall into the last one. sorry for the error.

fmhealth
04-21-2014, 09:09 PM
I'm finished with all CHDN properties. Once TUP closes in two weeks, I'll most likely hang it up until the first Friday in Oct. when the ponies return here to the "Valley of the Sun".

This will be the first Derby I'm passing since I've been a 'capper. This goes back 55 years when I was 13. I'm actually nonplussed about the entire state of racing nowadays anyway. The utter lack of respect for their core customers is simply too much to handle. ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!!!

Be Well,
fmhealth

tanner12oz
04-21-2014, 09:11 PM
Honestly the product and feed isn't very good

tanner12oz
04-21-2014, 09:13 PM
I'm finished with all CHDN properties. Once TUP closes in two weeks, I'll most likely hang it up until the first Friday in Oct. when the ponies return here to the "Valley of the Sun".

This will be the first Derby I'm passing since I've been a 'capper. This goes back 55 years when I was 13. I'm actually nonplussed about the entire state of racing nowadays anyway. The utter lack of respect for their core customers is simply too much to handle. ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!!!

Be Well,
fmhealth

its really bad and getting worse..alot of times I feel like its intentional because no business could possibly be that dumb

Stillriledup
04-21-2014, 10:09 PM
I'm finished with all CHDN properties. Once TUP closes in two weeks, I'll most likely hang it up until the first Friday in Oct. when the ponies return here to the "Valley of the Sun".

This will be the first Derby I'm passing since I've been a 'capper. This goes back 55 years when I was 13. I'm actually nonplussed about the entire state of racing nowadays anyway. The utter lack of respect for their core customers is simply too much to handle. ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!!!

Be Well,
fmhealth

I'm proud of you.

In this life, you know unfortunately its "short" but at least one time before we pass on to the great afterlife we need to be able to say "i stood for something".

Stillriledup
04-21-2014, 10:11 PM
its really bad and getting worse..alot of times I feel like its intentional because no business could possibly be that dumb

Its not stupidity, they know what they're doing, its more of "in your face, sucka". They think you arent man (or woman) enough to stop betting, they think your "impulses" will overcome your logic and you WILL wager on their signature races and their signature card. They're betting you won't "Stand for something" and they're betting that you'll be spineless all while laughing at their bettors, behind closed doors.

They don't think you can stay away due to the "gambling urge". They're betting against you and they're betting against their customers to be able to

Just.

Say.

No.

Rise Over Run
04-21-2014, 10:35 PM
chances are i will probably give up most North American tracks and take up Hong Kong, Macau, Australia, Korea and Viet Nam.
Really??? I had no idea there was horse racing there that you could play from NA.

andtheyreoff
04-21-2014, 10:54 PM
Its not stupidity, they know what they're doing, its more of "in your face, sucka". They think you arent man (or woman) enough to stop betting, they think your "impulses" will overcome your logic and you WILL wager on their signature races and their signature card. They're betting you won't "Stand for something" and they're betting that you'll be spineless all while laughing at their bettors, behind closed doors.

They don't think you can stay away due to the "gambling urge". They're betting against you and they're betting against their customers to be able to

Just.

Say.

No.

Ah, I see. So by going to the Derby (a lifelong dream of mine) and betting on the races (cuz I'll actually be there) and following the Derby trail for months, I'm just some diseased addict giving my money to some fat cats who probably light their cigars with hundred dollar bills and use puppies as ashtrays.

Gotcha.

Jeff P
04-22-2014, 12:14 AM
I understand the wanting to attend the Derby live part. (It's on my list of things to do too.) But the using $100 bills comment to light cigars might not be all that far fetched.

CHDN 2013 Executive Compensation way up vs. previous year:
http://insiders.morningstar.com/trading/executive-compensation.action?t=CHDN

CHDN more than doubling total compensation packages for executives making bonehead decision to stick players with a takeout hike...

As a horseplayer, if that doesn't make you want to barf (or boycott all CDI track signals) you might want to check yourself for a pulse.


-jp

.

Poindexter
04-22-2014, 10:36 AM
While rebates will rise a little bit due to increased takeout, the effective takeout for the rebate bettor will be raised also.....so, rebate bettors are going to have to "pay more" to wager on Churchill and since they're extremely price sensitive, i'm fairly certain many them will bet less due to the increased effective takeout.

Why would the rebates not rise to the same extent that takeout is raised at least for the very large bettors? Do the ADW fees go up when the takeout rises?

Regarding a boycott, if you really want it to work, it is going to take a collective effort. I do not mean boycotting CD, I mean boycotting everything that Churchill downs has there paws on, from Racetracks, to Casinos, to racing networks to Twinspires, to Bris(hurt them financially everywhere)......If you want to make a difference and get the point across, everyone of you who feels a boycott is in order will boycott (and write letters to these individual entities why they are no long using there services) everything they touch, and encourage everyone you know to do the same. That is the way you get their attention. Anything less will likely not do a whole lot. IMO. I just think it is blatantly obvious that the racing industry has regular horse players last on the list of who they care about pleasing, and the only way to change that is to show them that you can unite and you can make a difference. Anything less and they will continue to show horse players zero respect as they have forever. If they get away with this then what...........

1st time lasix
04-22-2014, 11:10 AM
According to Hana's website...the take out on the pick five is going to 22% as well. Why would a player go there.... when so many other venues {Belmont, Tampa, Gulfstream, etc} offer the wager at 14...15%? Oh that's right...their customers won't notice....:bang:

SandyLoam
04-22-2014, 12:09 PM
"Boycotting" Churchill Downs "except for Oaks and Derby days" is highly counterintuitive, unless your wagers will not touch the Churchill pools and you don't bet through any avenue CDI can get its hands on.

Not only is CDI abusing regular horseplayers, it is also preying on the chump civilian money like a quick-change artist at the carnival.

Wagering on Oaks and/or Derby days plays right into CDI's hands. They make enough money on those two days to cover the whole year, on a basic level, while their predatory actions vis a vis Kentucky racing dates, neglect of Fair Grounds, and its intention to annihilate Hawthorne are new ventures their MBAs are very enthusiastic in pursuing.

We're used to a lot of nonsense in Chicago sports, but my boycott of Arlington continues (as Arlington continues to marginalize itself with the PolyTrack :-) ), and you KNOW nothing beats a nice day at the races. But I would not be able to live with myself stepping one foot on the property until things change.

We can see here how CDI and its media partners are positioning the event, and don't think the actual people paid to talk about the races themselves won't be contaminated by this marketing-plan fallout:
http://nypost.com/2014/04/22/nbc-adds-lipinski-weir-to-kentucky-derby-coverage/

So, on Derby weekend, we'll be totally inundated by D-list "who's THAT?!" celebrities, an overdose of hats, the ruination of good bourbon, a plantation song, and in there somewhere, a total conundrum of a horse "race."

Either you boycott or you don't.

wiffleball whizz
04-22-2014, 12:27 PM
I'll be playing CD....... Even if I wasn't I couldn't resist if I was on full blown tilt

Side note: if the sharpies of PA avoid CD does that make it a better product for the fish (me) to bet?!??

And quit the BS boys.....y'all be firing away on CD when that pick 6 carryover from derby day is all 6 horse fields the following weds

ultracapper
04-22-2014, 01:57 PM
Bet huge at the races and boycott the casinos. It looks as though they are conducting themselves in a way to hamper horse racing and encourage casinos. Hit what they are trying to build and support what they are trying to destroy. That's the message you'd be trying to send. Let them know the only thing you'll ever support of all their products and services is the horse racing itself. They lose the horse racing, they lose you. They lose all the casinos and services and products, they'd still have you. That's what you want them to know.

olddaddy
04-22-2014, 03:09 PM
We're used to a lot of nonsense in Chicago sports, but my boycott of Arlington continues (as Arlington continues to marginalize itself with the PolyTrack :-) ), and you KNOW nothing beats a nice day at the races. But I would not be able to live with myself stepping one foot on the property until things change.




The problem with Illinois racing is so much deeper than poly at AP. I boycott all Illinois racing.

SandyLoam
04-22-2014, 05:01 PM
The problem with Illinois racing is so much deeper than poly at AP. I boycott all Illinois racing.

You're absolutely right. Including uneven rules that favor Arlington and a myriad of other problems.

riskman
04-22-2014, 05:25 PM
The problem with your analogy is tracks don't really offer the same product. It may seem the same, but, maybe for reasons unknown, many of us do better at certain tracks than others. Often this discrepancy cannot be explained by takeout rates.

As for me, since I play a lot of superfectas, ironically any track I choose to replace Churchill with will charge me a higher takeout rate in the supers.

Yes, this is reality and most horse players will do what is best for their bottom line.

Stillriledup
04-22-2014, 05:50 PM
Bet huge at the races and boycott the casinos. It looks as though they are conducting themselves in a way to hamper horse racing and encourage casinos. Hit what they are trying to build and support what they are trying to destroy. That's the message you'd be trying to send. Let them know the only thing you'll ever support of all their products and services is the horse racing itself. They lose the horse racing, they lose you. They lose all the casinos and services and products, they'd still have you. That's what you want them to know.

In theory, that makes sense, but it just won't work, economically, players will just be forced to bet less as they'll have less money to work with.

If a casino company who's "forced" to run race meets is just running race meets so they can retain their casino license, than it is what it is. You can't force people to "love racing" if their business model says to make the racing product suffer so we can eventually phase out racing, you can't twist their arms, if they don't want racing, they don't want racing.

How ironic will it be that the only people NOT crying during my old Ky home are people who own and run the actual track. People with no feelings, no heart and no soul won't be shedding tears...they'll be thinking about how they can get out of the racing business (like they sold Hollywood to the Killers after they didnt get slots) altogether.

Stillriledup
04-22-2014, 05:53 PM
Why would the rebates not rise to the same extent that takeout is raised at least for the very large bettors? Do the ADW fees go up when the takeout rises?

Regarding a boycott, if you really want it to work, it is going to take a collective effort. I do not mean boycotting CD, I mean boycotting everything that Churchill downs has there paws on, from Racetracks, to Casinos, to racing networks to Twinspires, to Bris(hurt them financially everywhere)......If you want to make a difference and get the point across, everyone of you who feels a boycott is in order will boycott (and write letters to these individual entities why they are no long using there services) everything they touch, and encourage everyone you know to do the same. That is the way you get their attention. Anything less will likely not do a whole lot. IMO. I just think it is blatantly obvious that the racing industry has regular horse players last on the list of who they care about pleasing, and the only way to change that is to show them that you can unite and you can make a difference. Anything less and they will continue to show horse players zero respect as they have forever. If they get away with this then what...........

I would imagine that unless you own the rebate shop, you won't get all of the "raise" rebated back...so your effective takeout will suffer even though your rebate will actually rise.

thespaah
04-22-2014, 07:57 PM
The only reason you would purchase bread at the 15 cent raise is if the bread itself got better in some fashion. CD, inc is essentially saying that the takeout raise is going to provide higher purses for horsemen and that will not only increase the field sizes, but should attract better horses.

I'm pretty sure that slots tracks have already tried raising purses with slots money and that didn't necessarily attract better horses, bigger fields or higher betting handles.

But, they feel this is the right thing to do, they have priced their product to try and maximize revenue, its up to the consumer to determine if they are willing to pay more for essentially the same product.
That is the ruse they employ for slots. Slots make for larger purses and thus more horsemen will enter.
The stats do not bear this out.

Pensacola Pete
04-22-2014, 09:15 PM
Australia and the U.K. have been available in North America (separate pools from the host countries) for years.

I rarely play any CDI track. They're too greedy.

Longshot6977
04-23-2014, 07:47 AM
I think that situation is covered by the "bet less" option.

I'm pretty sure that most people on here who will only play those two big races,
normally would play any number of races at CD during the Spring meet.

It's going to be interesting to see their handle numbers, both for Oaks/Derby weekend, and the entire meet.

I took that choice to mean you will bet LESS money like $20 per race instead of $40 per race, not that you would just bet the Derby, then stop playing CD.

I still think bettors will fool themselves now by saying no, but will actually bet there if a race looks good with value or other tracks have nothing great on the same day. A true boycott would work to get our point across, but CD won't care.

acorn54
04-23-2014, 12:28 PM
Australia and the U.K. have been available in North America (separate pools from the host countries) for years.

I rarely play any CDI track. They're too greedy.

thanks for the tip, i see my rebate shop offers very generous rebates on australian and u.k. races, so i will acclimate and move to wagering on those tracks. alot to like about them, far more good betting races and very large fields of 12-14 horses oftentimes.

horses4courses
04-23-2014, 08:05 PM
I took that choice to mean you will bet LESS money like $20 per race instead of $40 per race, not that you would just bet the Derby, then stop playing CD.

I still think bettors will fool themselves now by saying no, but will actually bet there if a race looks good with value or other tracks have nothing great on the same day. A true boycott would work to get our point across, but CD won't care.

I have to bet the Derby.
A $20-50 insurance bet on one, or two, horses to protect some exacta futures I have.
I can bet it non-pari-mutuel, but it's six of one or a half dozen.

That's all I plan to bet for the meet. Plenty of other options.

DeanT
04-23-2014, 08:11 PM
A couple of reactions from a smaller bettor and a bigger bettor.

I was a fairly regular customer of Churchill Downs. My couple thousand in handle a day will not mean much, especially to executives with all those stock options, but I won't be playing them this year. I have not fully decided about the Derby, but I sense I will more than likely just watch the card. I value my money which I work hard for, my own principles, and I can't support racing shooting itself in the foot for what feels like the bazillionth time. Supporting them is tacit approval that they can walk all over you. They will not walk all over me.


and

http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2014/04/young-bettors-making-their-voices-heard.html

Churchill Downs is raising takeout rates. 17.5% WPS, and 22% for exotics. Just like every other takeout increase, they claim it's because they need to sustain purses, and just like every other takeout increase it won't work because bettors will bet less. It's simple math. It's terrible business.

I am not a big money gambler. In 2014 I have bet $624 in total. I don't make a difference to Churchill Downs. But I do make a difference to myself. If I bet into a high takeout pool, I hurt myself because my potential winnings decrease. Because of the increase, I won't bet on Churchill's races, or on any races at any of their other tracks. Why would I as a bettor play a track where I will not win as much money?

Not only will I refuse to bet any Churchill races (including the Kentucky Derby), I will tell other horseplayers about the increase. Many players don't know much about takeout. I will explain to them what Churchill is doing, and why it's bad for them as horseplayers. If they decide they want to support bettors, the people who fund racing, they will follow me in boycotting CDI. If they enjoy Churchill's racing and want to continue playing it, that's fine. It's their choice. The least I can do is tell inform them of the takeout increase.

As horseplayers who want to succeed, and also want the sport to succeed, it's important to let any track that wants to raise prices on us know that we will not meekly accept a takeout increase that will do nothing but hurt horse racing in the long run. Bye bye, CDI. Thank you for hurting the sport we love.

DeanT
04-24-2014, 10:33 AM
When Joe Drape compliments Racetrack Andy it's something. I think Andy has publicly called Joe every name in the book 100 times over for his New York Times articles :)

https://twitter.com/joedrape/status/459338026276360192

olddaddy
04-24-2014, 12:04 PM
After Keenland closes Ill play Belmont and europe, Im sure Ill play the derby since Ive been betting it for over 50 years.

luisbe
04-24-2014, 10:47 PM
This is the nightmare scenario for horse racing people when slot machines come to town. Bean counters in corporate offices begin to look at racing operations as an expense, a necessary evil that must be maintained in order to keep the money-churning slots and gambling tables going. They allow facilities used by horsemen and horseplayers to deteriorate, looking at reinvestment in horseracing and marketing horseracing as a money pit.

That’s what you might anticipate when a casino company buys a racetrack. It’s not what you expect, however, when a company like Churchill Downs – ...

Read it all here:
http://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/holding-churchill-downs-accountable-for-fair-grounds-decline/

Stillriledup
04-25-2014, 03:17 AM
13 people voted they will play the same or MORE and my question to them (if they would be so kind to identify themselves) is how is it possible to play MORE if you will have LESS to play? You can't play what you don't have.

1st time lasix
04-25-2014, 09:45 AM
According to my records.....I poured thousands into their pick fours...pick fives and maiden races at Churchill in 2013. The won't see a dime of it in 2014....unless they roll back. Have to draw the line somewhere.

jballscalls
04-25-2014, 09:58 AM
13 people voted they will play the same or MORE and my question to them (if they would be so kind to identify themselves) is how is it possible to play MORE if you will have LESS to play? You can't play what you don't have.

Isn't it possible with big live money bettors like yourself now boycotting the pools, there is less talented players to compete with for the remaining money in the pool?

I mean if you have a number of very talented cappers not playing, maybe the extra 3% is less than the % you'll gain cause there will be less sharp players in the pools?

(response kind of tongue in cheek, but kind of not)

OTM Al
04-25-2014, 11:06 AM
Isn't it possible with big live money bettors like yourself now boycotting the pools, there is less talented players to compete with for the remaining money in the pool?

I mean if you have a number of very talented cappers not playing, maybe the extra 3% is less than the % you'll gain cause there will be less sharp players in the pools?

(response kind of tongue in cheek, but kind of not)
Was thinking much the same myself. If all the shaps leave the pools on Derby Day, then you would only be playing against dumb money and a whole lot of it at that...even I might be able to score on a day like that!

Stillriledup
04-25-2014, 04:26 PM
Isn't it possible with big live money bettors like yourself now boycotting the pools, there is less talented players to compete with for the remaining money in the pool?

I mean if you have a number of very talented cappers not playing, maybe the extra 3% is less than the % you'll gain cause there will be less sharp players in the pools?

(response kind of tongue in cheek, but kind of not)

This argument certainly has merit.....i remember a long time ago when Brunetti jacked the Hialeah takeout rates up to something insane and i thought to myself "could there be anyone betting Hialeah who knows ANYTHING".

The track went out of business before i could see if there were huge overlays, but my hunch is that 8 dollar horses pay 8 dollars and 20 dollar horses pay 20 dollars no matter who's in the pools, i havent seen that larger takes give you better value because the bettors are worse.

When takeouts get increased, all it means is that there are less overlays. There are less "long run winning bets" to be had. If a long run winning bet is sitting up there on the board, at a high takeout track, someone is going to bet on it, smart bettors with big bankrolls arent usually leaving "Free money" lying on the ground, if a horse who should pay 10 dollars is sitting up there at 5-1 with the gate loading, someone is betting that horse down.

But, your point certainly is something to think about. I would just say to handicap like you normally handicap and if you see an overlay, bet on it.

You'll just have less overlays to choose from at Churchill.

Pensacola Pete
04-25-2014, 07:14 PM
I guess I'm officially out of "retirement" here, if I'm getting on my soapbox to pontificate.

The whales won't go away. They'll just auto-bot fewer times, because the 1.5-2% they've lost means there won't be as many inefficiencies to exploit in the pools.

The sharp players won't go away. They'll just bet less often, because the 1.5-2% they've lost means their edge isn't as high as it used to be.

No professional who has an after-rebate ROI that's still profitable after the 1.5-2% reduction is going to stop playing because some of the profit is gone. That's like throwing money away.

For example, I've always understood a certain trainer at Finger Lakes; he also races horses at other tracks. I have a few good clues about when he's sending a horse and when the horse is just out for a gallop around the track. The first type still lose races, and the second kind still win once in a blue moon, but I have the advantage. My ROI on this trainer is 1.40 over the past five years (1.32 at FL), plus the rebate. Am I going to quit playing just because my rebate fell 1.65% from 6.39% to 4.74%? Am I going to stop making money on this angle because Delaware North listened to Churchill Downs and raised the host fees? Not me. That wouldn't make good business sense.

They won't lose the on-track or OTB simulcast players, because the host fee doesn't affect them. Same for people who go to the tracks (but they can lose them over other things).

They won't lose ADWs, either, at least not permanently. The ADWs who give generous rebates (i.e. Amwager, PTC) will just pass along the host fee to their customers in the form of a reduced rebate. The others won't be making as much money, but as long as they're making something out of the deal, they aren't going to drop the tracks. They'll hem and haw and maybe stall for a while or see if the track blinks first, but they'll eventually realize that it's costing them money, and they'll sign back on.

The danger to our bottom line is the recreational player who is smart enough to get the best rebates, but not smart enough to win. Some of those people might look at Finger Lakes and Canterbury (who raised their host fees 2%), both minor league tracks by any stretch of the imagination, and say "Screw that, those tracks are bush anyway. I can live without them."

I'm surprised Finger Lakes went for this. Delaware North is usually pretty savvy about customers. Serves them right for listening to CDI.

lamboguy
04-26-2014, 09:33 AM
there is a big difference between signal fee hikes and takeout hikes for rebate players. before the hike in takeout, the rebate for w=p=s in Churchill was 6% now its almost 9%. the rebate for w=p=s in Finger Lakes was 10% now after signal fee hikes its only 8%.

what this is going to mean is that the Finger Lakes handle will go way down, while the Churchill handle might actually go up with the takeout hike. one hike penalizes the people that go to the track, the other hits the guys that stay home.

the only thing that can add business to racing is renewed interest in the game. neither signal fee hikes or rise in takeout does to much for the overall health of the game.

Some_One
04-27-2014, 12:32 AM
there is a big difference between signal fee hikes and takeout hikes for rebate players. before the hike in takeout, the rebate for w=p=s in Churchill was 6% now its almost 9%. the rebate for w=p=s in Finger Lakes was 10% now after signal fee hikes its only 8%.

what this is going to mean is that the Finger Lakes handle will go way down, while the Churchill handle might actually go up with the takeout hike. one hike penalizes the people that go to the track, the other hits the guys that stay home.

the only thing that can add business to racing is renewed interest in the game. neither signal fee hikes or rise in takeout does to much for the overall health of the game.

As I said in the other thread, Derby Trial was up 21%, so you might have a good theory about more rebate play in the pools tonight,.

Seabiscuit@AR
04-27-2014, 03:15 AM
lamboguy

thanks for that info. Turnover was up at CD today vs last year. Increasing the rebates and the advantages the rebate players enjoy would explain this increase in turnover. But it means that there is no guarantee that CD has made more money from the takeout collected in 2014 vs 2013. This vital info is not published anywhere

Stillriledup
04-27-2014, 03:27 AM
lamboguy

thanks for that info. Turnover was up at CD today vs last year. Increasing the rebates and the advantages the rebate players enjoy would explain this increase in turnover. But it means that there is no guarantee that CD has made more money from the takeout collected in 2014 vs 2013. This vital info is not published anywhere

Its one day. Lets see the numbers at the end of the meet to see if people care about takeout or not.

As far as rebates go, unless you know for sure that rebate players are "Recovering" every percentage point of the takeout raise, its all just speculation.

JustRalph
04-27-2014, 03:34 AM
I don't care. The important point is they didn't get any of my money. I'm not supporting them.

Whales, Elves or Jackalopes can be betting them. I'm not. Gone are the days I used to walk around with Churchill PP's rolled up and stuffed in my hip pocket or on my IPad.

Stillriledup
04-27-2014, 03:37 AM
I don't care. The important point is they didn't get any of my money. I'm not supporting them.

Whales, Elves or Jackalopes can be betting them. I'm not. Gone are the days I used to walk around with Churchill PP's rolled up and stuffed in my hip pocket or on my IPad.

I'm proud to call you a fellow horseplayer. This shows you care about the game and its future, and i respect that.

Robert Goren
04-29-2014, 07:48 AM
I don't care. The important point is they didn't get any of my money. I'm not supporting them.

Whales, Elves or Jackalopes can be betting them. I'm not. Gone are the days I used to walk around with Churchill PP's rolled up and stuffed in my hip pocket or on my IPad. You live in Texas, you can't bet them even if you wanted to.

precocity
04-29-2014, 08:06 AM
You live in Texas, you can't bet them even if you wanted to.
not even at lone star park?

JustRalph
04-29-2014, 01:31 PM
You live in Texas, you can't bet them even if you wanted to.


I live 20 min or less from Lonestar

And I have other options available to me also.........

riskman
04-29-2014, 02:34 PM
You live in Texas, you can't bet them even if you wanted to.

Where there is a will, there is a way.
The N.Y.S. legislature passed a bill effective 1/1/14 penalizing NY resident horseplayers who had out of state ADW accounts by imposing a 5% surcharge on bets not only on races in NY but races in other states if you are a NY resident. What a heap of BS for NY residents in an attempt to force them to wager with NYRA or state run OTB's or other in state ADW's thereby reducing rebates offered. The surcharge goes right into the pockets of those who least deserve it.
As one who was affected by this legislation, and who had wagered in low six figures annually both in and out of state, I decided to discontinue my daily wagering activity. Basically, I just make a few wagers a week mostly Win/Place, Exacta and Doubles with a local bookmaker. The limits, caps offered by the bookmaker are fine with my present wagering activity.