% Of Winners?

[andicap]

I know this has been posted before but....

If favorites win about 30-33% of the time, how often do 2nd-4th choices win AND do they vary a lot with different types of races?

[BIG HIT]

Hi andy i read that one of the four favorite ina race win 80% of the time.But cant remenber where i read it and i know i read it more then once.Sure someone can verify it.Sorry couldnt be more help.Have a good holiday

[superfecta]

Originally posted by BIG HIT
Hi andy i read that one of the four favorite ina race win 80% of the time.But cant remenber where i read it and i know i read it more then once.Sure someone can verify it.Sorry couldnt be more help.Have a good holiday

what I read in a book was the top four favorites and ties,(that means if the fourth fav is 5-1 and the fifth fav is 5-1,he gets put in as well),win 80% of the races.
Which makes sense,if several horses are tied in odds,you could have the whole field qualify .

[andicap]

Thanks, Superfecta, but what I'm looking for is how often does the 2nd favorite win? How often does the 3rdfavorite win? How often does the 4th favorite win. We know the favorite wins 30-32% of the time about.

[4thandlong]

Going from memory here...

2nd fav = 20%
3rd fav = 14%

As an aside, at least one of the top two favs will finish in the money 90% of the time (from William L. Scott's book "Investing at the Racetrack". He cited a study of over 100,000 races). Not earth-shattering but something to keep in mind for exotic players.

[GR1@HTR]

Small sample of about 9K races by MLO rank. Note: Not by post time odds.

MLO Favorite
30.54%
ROI -19.97

2nd MLO Favorite
19.46%
ROI -19.82

3rd MLO Favorite
13.68%
-25.60 ROI

[FortuneHunter]

Andicap,

The data below is for Big A Inner Track racing 2000, 2001, 2002 (through Week 3). Total races were 1367.

Odds Rank is based on final win odds where the breakage is $0.05. This is why there isn't that many "ties". If you used the tote board odds, there would be many more as someone noted in a previous post.

ROI of $1.00 is breakeven

Top 4 ranked final odds wins approx. 82%


Description HIT % ROI $BET $PAYOFF Bets/Race AvgOdds Play % HIT Races Races HIT
================================================== ==================================
Odds Rank 1, Inner 36.1% 0.83 $2,910 $2,414 1.1 $1.45 99.7% 1367 493
================================================== ==================================
Odds Rank 2, Inner 21.1% 0.83 $2,874 $2,373 1.1 $3.10 99.7% 1367 289
================================================== ==================================
Odds Rank 3, Inner 14.6% 0.80 $2,838 $2,269 1.0 $4.67 99.7% 1367 200
================================================== ==================================
Odds Rank 4, Inner 10.5% 0.81 $2,806 $2,262 1.0 $6.91 99.7% 1367 143
================================================== ==================================
Odds Rank 5, Inner 7.9% 0.85 $2,758 $2,340 1.0 $10.04 98.3% 1348 106
================================================== ==================================
Odds Rank 6, Inner 4.4% 0.61 $2,554 $1,565 1.0 $13.23 91.1% 1249 55
================================================== ==================================
Odds Rank 7, Inner 4.5% 1.08 $2,114 $2,281 1.0 $23.26 76.2% 1045 47
================================================== ==================================
Odds Rank 8, Inner 2.4% 0.63 $1,522 $964 1.0 $25.76 55.0% 754 18


Observation:

The Win % distribution and the uniform ROI right around the takeout indicates to me that the money bet is very accurate on the Big A Inner.

Merry Christmas, FH

[Rick Ransom]

I use an old rule of thumb (call it the 2, 4, 6, 8 rule) which assumes that the odds go up by two for each choice starting at 2-1. So, it's 2-1, 4-1, 6-1, 8-1, which would be 33.3%, 20.0%, 14.3%, 11.1%. The actual chances will vary somewhat from track to track, but it's a pretty good overall average. You can use the same kind of thing to get an idea as to what odds you should look for with your own selections.

[ranchwest]

I just looked at 1,016 races at various tracks, distances and times of year. There were 272 winners paying 6-1 or higher. That's 26.77 percent. That still leaves about 40% that are neither favorites nor longshots. I think understanding the dynamics of that distribution is essential to earning a profit.

[BIG HIT]

Hi everyone read artcle of ray about % in it he says fav win 35% second choice 22%to 24% and thrid choice 11% the article was from 1998.And he says combineing all three the top three choice win about 70% of all winning fav are either frist sec or thrid choice in the betting.Hope this help

[Dave Schwartz]

Andy,

The short version of the answer is that, "Yes, it varies greatly from one race type to another."

It stands to reason that this would be true. Some kinds of races simply lend themselves to greater (or lesser) predictability. So do some tracks or circuits.

Field size also plays a huge role.

Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Tom]

andy,
I used to keep a detailed database of Finger Lakes, all hand entry, and one of the fields I kept was what odds rank the winner was. Over several years, there was a big difference by class of how favs did. In races for older mares, in the handicap, better allowances, and stakes, the favs wqon a little over 50% of the time! In bottm claimers, nw2lt, favs won only around 21-22% and in MSW for New York Breds, they won 40$.
Over all, the total win% was right about the national average, but in various classes, it was a wide swing and it paid to know this. I think there is a publication out that gives thios type ifor for NYRA tracks, but it might be dated by now - I saw it like 2 years ago in a Dave Powers catalog.

Tom

[BMeadow]

We covered this question in detail in the January 2000 issue of Meadow's Racing Monthly, more than 200,000 races researched ($12 for the one issue; go to www.trpublishing.com for the complete index).

Very briefly (the complete article ran 6 pages and covered everything from how often the favorite won in dirt sprints to how often a fourth-choice second-time starter won):

Favorite (average odds 1.5 - 1): 32.8% wins (0.81 ROI)
2nd Choice (average odds 2.9 -1): 20.8% wins (0.82 ROI)
3rd Choice (average odds 4.4 - 1): 15.0% wins (0.80 ROI)
4th Choice (average odds 6.3 - 1): 10.9% wins (0.79 ROI)

[andicap]

Very close to FH's finding at AQI, except he had a few more favorites winning. Figures at that track.

thanks, all