Derby Betting Strategy: Betting California Chrome

[Smarty Cide]

So now 2 weeks away from the Derby I usually like to start thinking of my betting strategy. Not necessarily exactly what horses im going to bet, but more so what kind of bets I want to make.

I have some futures bets alive:

Intense Holiday 15/1
Wildcat Red 50/1
Samraat 50/1
Uncle Sigh 75/1
Candy Boy 20/1
Midnight Hawk 25/1
Vicars In Trouble 20/1
Cairo Prince 12/1

Bayern at 75/1 but dont look like he will make it...

If any of those horses hit im getting paid 150 and upward as high as 750.

But I really think California Chrome is by far the best horse and yes, i understand its the derby and anything can happen. However im going to go all in on Chromeo here. But my question is, with odds possibly as low as 2-1 how do you bet him?

The first thing im going to do is bet a $2 ex box CC and ALL = $ 38

Then im thinking of doing some type of tri and super

for the tri something like cc w/ 10 horses w 11/horses which for $1 = $100

then some type of simalier super with a smaller amount of horses...


but was curious to others on California Chrome how were you thinking of betting him?

[Robert Fischer]

Can you picture what California Chrome's winning trip will look like ?

[Smarty Cide]

well here is the way i see it.... at least as of now without seeing the post positions...

California Chrome stalks a pace set by Wildcat Red and passes him down the stretch to pull away from the field... Wildcat Red puts up a big effort but he gets passed at the end by a closer maybe Wicked Strong. Wildcat hangs on for 3rd and some horse 'clunks up' for 4th. just passing tired horses... a horse kinda like a make music for me or went the day well... not sure who that is yet


at least thats one way i see it


but i really like Hoppertunity and Vicars in Trouble too... not sure how they play into it... yet

[bgbootha]

I really don't see CC dropping all the way to 2-1, it would be surprising to me if we see him less than 7/2.

[Smarty Cide]

at 7/2 its almost better for me to take 200 bucks and put it on him and scratch all the exotics...


on a side note, following up on my last reply... DANZA thats who clunks up for 4th... he looks like he will get better with distance...


California Chrome, Wicked Strong, Wildcat Red, Danza... super me

[Smarty Cide]

Ride On Curlin is a sneaky play on the bottom end of tri's & supers as well, he has a little Musket Man in him... if you know what i mean

[Robert Fischer]

well here is the way i see it.... at least as of now without seeing the post positions...

California Chrome stalks a pace set by Wildcat Red and passes him down the stretch to pull away from the field... Wildcat Red puts up a big effort but he gets passed at the end by a closer maybe Wicked Strong. Wildcat hangs on for 3rd and some horse 'clunks up' for 4th. just passing tired horses... a horse kinda like a make music for me or went the day well... not sure who that is yet


at least thats one way i see it


but i really like Hoppertunity and Vicars in Trouble too... not sure how they play into it... yet

Betting your scenario is one way to construct some affordable extra tickets.

[Smarty Cide]

Betting your scenario is one way to construct some affordable extra tickets.


cc/ W wicked strong, hoppertunity / w wildcat red/ w chitu, danza, ride on curling

[davew]

Do you think he is a 'single'?

I like to spread on contenders of previous races and end a DD, P3, P4 on the single - depending on bets available and previous races.

[SharpCat]

If you really think California Chrome is the winner just hammer the daily double Wise Dan-California Chrome. It paid $19.80 last year Wise Dan-Orb and I would expect a similar payoff this year.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

No offense to you CC fans, but this thread is rekindling my interest in this year's Derby, which was looking like yet another suspect crop of so-so runners.

But now we have one horse with several nice races standing head and shoulders above the herd on paper, and the hype and expectations growing fast.

I won't be surprised if this year's chalk doesn't get a check.

At 4-1, California Chrome offsets the takeout, and makes this an interesting betting race indeed.

Granted, I rarely bet chalk and I'm always looking for reasons to bet against them, especially in a race like the Derby. Last year I ended up betting Overanalyze, but didn't put too much in the race because I figured Orb had a good shot to be part of it, and therefore spoil the value.

This year, the chalk is a California based horse with suspect breeding who likes to be near the front and already has 10 lifetime starts.

Many fans think CC is another Sunday Silence.

I think he might be another Houston.

[SecretAgentMan]

No offense to you CC fans, but this thread is rekindling my interest in this year's Derby, which was looking like yet another suspect crop of so-so runners.

But now we have one horse with several nice races standing head and shoulders above the herd on paper, and the hype and expectations growing fast.

I won't be surprised if this year's chalk doesn't get a check.

At 4-1, California Chrome offsets the takeout, and makes this an interesting betting race indeed.

Granted, I rarely bet chalk and I'm always looking for reasons to bet against them, especially in a race like the Derby. Last year I ended up betting Overanalyze, but didn't put too much in the race because I figured Orb had a good shot to be part of it, and therefore spoil the value.

This year, the chalk is a California based horse with suspect breeding who likes to be near the front and already has 10 lifetime starts.

Many fans think CC is another Sunday Silence.

I think he might be another Houston.


What's wrong with racing 10 times before the derby? It builds foundation, unlike Constitution that was forced to run a big race his 3rd time out & gets injured.

There's different type of bettors when it comes to the derby.......some always try to beat the chalk no matter what, some always bet the favorite & then you have the ones that try & find the best horse in the race looking to have a big outing, no matter if its the favorite or a 30-1 shot.

[ArlJim78]

people always seem to talk about not wanting to take the "chalk", as if win bets were the only wagering option. the wagering strategy offered here revolves around exacta's, tri's and supers, not eating 3-1 on a win bet.

[tanner12oz]

Do you think he is a 'single'?

I like to spread on contenders of previous races and end a DD, P3, P4 on the single - depending on bets available and previous races.

you gonna go deep trying to beat wise Dan? Good luck

[tanner12oz]

I have a large field bet from pool 1 VERY live so I'm going to be going play roc and Cairo on top of some supers just in case..picks 4's all day long of course

[BlueChip@DRF]

you gonna go deep trying to beat wise Dan? Good luck
Two singles in a P4 sounds very enticing.

[Smarty Cide]

all/ all/ wise dan/ chromeo

[Smarty Cide]

what day will the full card be released? the same day as the derby post draw i assume?

[PhantomOnTour]

Smarty Cide - if I may...

Let the Derby come to you - do not go chasing it.
In my opinion it is a waste of time to construct your tickets now.
Some runners will look great during Derby week and some will work terribly.
You have already posted a Pick 4 ticket and you don't even know who is running in the races leading up to the Derby :faint:
Insane.

[Bigbob115]

Cairo Prince will be over looked and will run big race,the best horse is not running in derby but will win the Preakness and Belmont and that is Social Inclusion remember he never ran as 2 yr old only 3 races lifetime and in my opinion has more ability than all the rest of the 3 yr olds.

[Smarty Cide]

Cairo Prince will be over looked and will run big race,the best horse is not running in derby but will win the Preakness and Belmont and that is Social Inclusion remember he never ran as 2 yr old only 3 races lifetime and in my opinion has more ability than all the rest of the 3 yr olds.

Cairo Prince really had no kick in the Florida Derby... but i still tend to agree.. dont know why, just a gut feeling

Social Inclusion is nowhere near California Chrome... they shouldnt even be on the same track...

[andtheyreoff]

what day will the full card be released? the same day as the derby post draw i assume?

Likely the Wednesday before, so April 30.

Cairo Prince will be over looked and will run big race,the best horse is not running in derby but will win the Preakness and Belmont and that is Social Inclusion remember he never ran as 2 yr old only 3 races lifetime and in my opinion has more ability than all the rest of the 3 yr olds.

Neither Cairo Prince nor Social Inclusion has any chance to win any Triple Crown race they are entered in.

[SecretAgentMan]

Cairo Prince will be over looked and will run big race,the best horse is not running in derby but will win the Preakness and Belmont and that is Social Inclusion remember he never ran as 2 yr old only 3 races lifetime and in my opinion has more ability than all the rest of the 3 yr olds.


LoL......SI better than Chrome? I can't wait until the Preakness.......

[Hoofless_Wonder]

What's wrong with racing 10 times before the derby? It builds foundation, unlike Constitution that was forced to run a big race his 3rd time out & gets injured.

When handicapping the Derby, I look for a horse that's been pointed to the race since before being foaled. 10 starts prior to the Derby tells me that California Chrome was not considered a Derby prospect early in his career. Each horse has only so many starts, and there's a balance between building foundation, and tapping out the well.

Last year Orb peaked a bit early, but still had enough in the tank to win the Derby. He had seven well spaced starts leading up to the race, and moved forward nicely after breaking his maiden in late November. We all know what happened with Orb after the Derby.

California Chrome, on the other hand, had three starts prior to June 30th last year. I would love to see the Derby stats on how many 2YOs have even started with that stat in their PPs.

This horse may have plenty of upside left, and I could be completely wrong. I'll carefully review his workouts at CD and see how he looks. But at this point, he's looking like a bounce candidate that's peaked and is going to make this year's Derby quite bettable. I'll be investing much more this year.....

[bgbootha]

I'll carefully review his workouts at CD and see how he looks. But at this point, he's looking like a bounce candidate that's peaked and is going to make this year's Derby quite bettable. I'll be investing much more this year.....

The issue here is that he isn't going to be working out at CD. His connections have already said he will continue to work at LA training center and ship the Tuesday before the derby.

[Tall One]

I'll carefully review his workouts at CD and see how he looks.



Unless plans have changed, he will not have a workout over the CD strip.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

I'll carefully review his workouts at CD and see how he looks.



Unless plans have changed, he will not have a workout over the CD strip.

Ah, didn't know that. Like him less now.

BTW - thought I heard Cairo Prince is out of the Derby on Talking Horses today....

[SecretAgentMan]

Not all horses that are foaled were focused on the derby by their trainers & owner......the following horses had more than 7 races entering the derby........

1992.....Lil E Tee (8 races)

1993......Sea Hero (10 races)

1994......Go for Gin (9 races)

1995......Thunder Gulch (9 races) (won derby & Belmont)

1998.......Real Quiet (12 races) (lost triple crown by a nose)

1999......Charismatic (14 races) (won derby & Preakness)

2009......Mine that Bird........(8 races)

The standard from 2000 to 2013 has changed & horses are running less, usually around 6 races but we are also see a ton more injuries than we were back when horses ran more races. Hmm......

[TMQ]

In my opinion a lot of my betting strategy will come down to how the track is playing. If they make it a paved highway CC looks like a good bet to me. my guess is it will be how it has been the last 10 years. A huge charge down the backstretch.

[tanner12oz]

Cc love fest on hrtv today..was thinking he wouldn't be less the 4-1 but I don't know kool aid is going really strong...if even 25% of what the connections are saying this is going to be a route...appear VERY confident...sherman said that he worries about the break with cc and will be working with him in the gate heavily to try to get him out clean

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Not all horses that are foaled were focused on the derby by their trainers & owner......the following horses had more than 7 races entering the derby........

1992.....Lil E Tee (8 races)

1993......Sea Hero (10 races)

1994......Go for Gin (9 races)

1995......Thunder Gulch (9 races) (won derby & Belmont)

1998.......Real Quiet (12 races) (lost triple crown by a nose)

1999......Charismatic (14 races) (won derby & Preakness)

2009......Mine that Bird........(8 races)

The standard from 2000 to 2013 has changed & horses are running less, usually around 6 races but we are also see a ton more injuries than we were back when horses ran more races. Hmm......

The list above is interesting. All of them bred better than California Chrome, though breeding isn't as big a factor for the Derby as it once was. Mine That Bird is an outlier - if the track on Derby Day had been fast OR sloppy, that horse doesn't hit the board.

Standards have changed - and only once in the last 14 runnings has a horse with more than 7 starts won the Derby. Makes 4-1 on CC a bit dicey, just on that stat alone. Again, I'd be curious how many Derby horses have run with three starts in quarter 2 of their 2YO season.

There was an even bigger shift in the breed in 1990. That's the last year the Kentucky Derby winner (Unbridled) came back to win the Breeder's Cup. Since then, injuries, retirement, and "post-peak" poor performances have been the norm of the Derby winner. Silver Charm and Animal Kingdom did come back to win the Dubai World Cup, but most Derby winners struggle to get through the Triple Crown, let alone race as an older horse.

So it basically comes down to whether or not California Chrome has peaked - history says his future after the Derby is gloomy, as others in his class will mature and pass him in ability.

Unless I can fly to England and get a wager down on "Field Against" CC, it's time to start looking for the horse I do want to bet on....

[Tall One]

Cc love fest on hrtv today..was thinking he wouldn't be less the 4-1 but I don't know kool aid is going really strong...if even 25% of what the connections are saying this is going to be a route...appear VERY confident...sherman said that he worries about the break with cc and will be working with him in the gate heavily to try to get him out clean




Confidence is one thing..did they sound arrogant?

Look, I'm not saying CC isn't the real deal. Might be a freak. But, what makes me pause is he's never ran outside CA. I think you have too look at how the west coast shippers have faired in this year's preps. If I were considering CC as a key horse, that aspect, along with lacking a workout over CD's track are both concerning. Horses either love or hate CD. Los Al angle just bugs me for some reason.

[SecretAgentMan]

Confidence is one thing..did they sound arrogant?

Look, I'm not saying CC isn't the real deal. Might be a freak. But, what makes me pause is he's never ran outside CA. I think you have too look at how the west coast shippers have faired in this year's preps. If I were considering CC as a key horse, that aspect, along with lacking a workout over CD's track are both concerning. Horses either love or hate CD. Los Al angle just bugs me for some reason.


They announced earlier on TVG that Los Am will have a $500k graded stakes race this summer.......thanks to Cali Chrome.

Remember I'll Have Another? Ran all Cali races except 1, he tried Saratoga & cane in 6th by 19 lengths in his only race outside of Cali.......he ended up winning the derby.

Just because Chrome hasn't raced outside Cali means nothing when the horse is fit & clicking on all cylinders. Also, he ran at 3 different tracks in Cali, so its not like its the same track.

Some Cali horses like Santa Anita but hate Del Mar or Hollywood.......yes, I would also like to see Chrome workout over Churchill but it doesn't bother me as much.

I could have cared less when Funny Code worked out in NY instead of Churchill, I still was all over him. When a horse is fit & clicking, look out!

[Tall One]

^^Can't refute any of that. Like I said, not saying he's not the real deal, just some concerns for discussion. Horses ship in and ship out for one race all the time. Nothing new there, but with the Derby, I will sometimes let the little things get me hung up.

Regarding Funny Cide, who I also won a few bucks on, a few of us made the trip over to CD for the Stephen Foster that year, and the CD execs brought the Sackatoga Stable, along with the bus, back for the day. When I told one of them I had FC in the Derby, he yelled "hey this guy is buying next round." :D

[tanner12oz]

What is the stretch distance from Los al vs. Santa Anita vs Churchill?

[mostpost]

What is the stretch distance from Los al vs. Santa Anita vs Churchill?
Los Alamitos new mile track has the longest stretch at 1380 feet. I don't know the exact numbers, but Churchill is second right around 1320 and Santa Anita is the shortest.

Los Al is where California Chrome works out. Here is a link to a video of his work today. He looks amazingly smooth and effortless.
http://www.losalamitos.com/News.aspx?id=2216

[tanner12oz]

Los Alamitos new mile track has the longest stretch at 1380 feet. I don't know the exact numbers, but Churchill is second right around 1320 and Santa Anita is the shortest.

Los Al is where California Chrome works out. Here is a link to a video of his work today. He looks amazingly smooth and effortless.
http://www.losalamitos.com/News.aspx?id=2216

that's what I heard but just wanted to confirm..
positive for cc

[fmolf]

i believe CC will be overtaken in the stretch or have traffic problems in the big derby field.Looking forward to selecting a horse to beat him....possibly tapiture, samraat or ride on curlin....ultra longshot might be uncle sigh

[Smarty Cide]

i believe CC will be overtaken in the stretch or have traffic problems in the big derby field.Looking forward to selecting a horse to beat him....possibly tapiture, samraat or ride on curlin....ultra longshot might be uncle sigh


thats an interesting take but what are you basing it on? Uncle Sigh hasnt been able to overtake his local competition. Tapiture looks like a horse who cant get the distance as he floundered last time out, ride on curlin the beyeres would suggest just isnt fast enough and lets face it he dont do much winning of races... Samraat eh, hes alright but compared to California Chrome... i dont know about that

[SecretAgentMan]

i believe CC will be overtaken in the stretch or have traffic problems in the big derby field.Looking forward to selecting a horse to beat him....possibly tapiture, samraat or ride on curlin....ultra longshot might be uncle sigh


I don't see Chrome having traffic problems with the tactical speed he shows......also, the 3 horses you named will be over taken in the stretch (if they make it that far) before Chrome.

I would like to see the post positions first to see what hole Wildcard Red comes out of, he should set the pace along with Uncle Sigh & several others pressing the pace. Espinoza should have Chrome sitting 4th within 3 lengths of the leader.

Thing is, Chrome loves to run fast in the wind & Espinoza can only hold him back for so long.

[Smarty Cide]

I don't see Chrome having traffic problems with the tactical speed he shows......also, the 3 horses you named will be over taken in the stretch (if they make it that far) before Chrome.

I would like to see the post positions first to see what hole Wildcard Red comes out of, he should set the pace along with Uncle Sigh & several others pressing the pace. Espinoza should have Chrome sitting 4th within 3 lengths of the leader.

Thing is, Chrome loves to run fast in the wind & Espinoza can only hold him back for so long.

i really like Wildcat Red to run a big race and fight to the end prbably finish 3rd or 4th... he a fighter tho

[ArlJim78]

If California Chrome loses it will be because of some kind of trouble with his trip. for example before Espinoza rode him he showed a tendency to be uncomfortable with horses to his outside. Espinoza obviously seems to be a good fit and knows to keep him in the clear.
Other than possibly the rapidly improving Danza I see no horse in this race who's going to run down California Chrome in the stretch.

[jk3521]

Don't forget that last years' Derby winner was the favorite and the exacta paid over $900 !

[Smarty Cide]

If California Chrome loses it will be because of some kind of trouble with his trip. for example before Espinoza rode him he showed a tendency to be uncomfortable with horses to his outside. Espinoza obviously seems to be a good fit and knows to keep him in the clear.
Other than possibly the rapidly improving Danza I see no horse in this race who's going to run down California Chrome in the stretch.

100% agree..... And yes DANZA IS THE BOSS

California Chrome is the best horse bar none... The only thing that can beat him would be a bad trip... Match race him vs any horse in this field id be shocked if anyone is with in 10 lengths of him...

I tried to bet against Big Brown for the derby in 2007 and im not going to make the same mistake again.

All I got to say is http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjmjqlOPd6A

Im loving this super right now

Cal Chrome/ W Danza, Wicked Strong, Hoppertunity/ W Wildcat Red, Hoppertunity/ W Danza, Wicked Srong, Hoppertunity, Wildcat Red $10 Bucks

[Smarty Cide]

Don't forget that last years' Derby winner was the favorite and the exacta paid over $900 !


Im also doing a $2 Cal Chrome W All


if your betting Chromeo you gotta play exotics. his odds are too low

[BlueChip@DRF]

100% agree..... And yes DANZA IS THE BOSS

California Chrome is the best horse bar none... The only thing that can beat him would be a bad trip... Match race him vs any horse in this field id be shocked if anyone is with in 10 lengths of him...

I tried to bet against Big Brown for the derby in 2007 and im not going to make the same mistake again.

All I got to say is http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjmjqlOPd6A

Im loving this super right now

Cal Chrome/ W Danza, Wicked Strong, Hoppertunity/ W Wildcat Red, Hoppertunity/ W Danza, Wicked Srong, Hoppertunity, Wildcat Red $10 Bucks

What if Danza gets up for 3rd? :faint:

[Smarty Cide]

What if Danza gets up for 3rd? :faint:


then im just an asshole


to box all those horses under cal chrome bet jumps to 24

but danza hits 3rd and ill have him in my tri like that doing a big time tri

cal chrome w 10 horses w 11 horses = 100 bucks for $1

[BlueChip@DRF]

then im just an asshole


to box all those horses under cal chrome bet jumps to 24

but danza hits 3rd and ill have him in my tri like that doing a big time tri

cal chrome w 10 horses w 11 horses = 100 bucks for $1

Ah, OK. I learn something new everyday. :)

[Hoofless_Wonder]

How do CC's Beyers compare to the rest of the crop?

I see in the latest BRIS Derby PPs there are no less than 11 other horses who have posted triple digit BRIS speed figures in their races, and CC's top of 106 in the SA Derby doesn't appear to make him such a standout, though it is highest.

Seems like another betting strategy might be to key him second, in case he does get run down in the stretch by another horse who dramatically improves in the Derby.

Of course I'll be much greedier than that, and playing him no better than 3rd, and leaving him off lots of tickets.... :)

[BlueChip@DRF]

How do CC's Beyers compare to the rest of the crop?

I see in the latest BRIS Derby PPs there are no less than 11 other horses who have posted triple digit BRIS speed figures in their races, and CC's top of 106 in the SA Derby doesn't appear to make him such a standout, though it is highest.

Seems like another betting strategy might be to key him second, in case he does get run down in the stretch by another horse who dramatically improves in the Derby.

Of course I'll be much greedier than that, and playing him no better than 3rd, and leaving him off lots of tickets.... :)

Just the top BSFs:

California Chrome
SA-G1: 107
SnF-G2: 108

Wicked Strong
WMem-G1: 104

Danza
Ark-G1: 102

Hoppertunity
SA-G1: 98
Reb-G2: 100

Wildcat Red
Fla-G1: 99
FOY-G2: 101

Chitu
Sun-G3: 102
RBL-G2: 95

General A Rod
Fla-G1: 97
FOY-G2: 101

Social Inclusion
WMem-G1: 98

[Izzy2742]

Im also doing a $2 Cal Chrome W All


if your betting Chromeo you gotta play exotics. his odds are too low

I wonder what the lowest odds for a win bet are for good value.

Last year Orb was 5.40 as the favorite. 19 horses started, so $36 for Orb-all

If you just did a straight win bet, that should pay $230.40. A long shot placed, resulting in a huge exacta. But what if Revolutionary held second? His odds were 6.40.

I feel like the exacta would have paid less than the straight win bet. I'm not sure the math is this linear, but if 5-1/34-1 paid $900, could 5-1/6-1 have paid about $160?

Do you feel it is worth the risk? Clearly, California Chrome could be less than 5.4-1. But how much lower? Does anyone know of a "magic number" for his odds to change the play from a straight win to an exacta/other exotic play?

I know it's the Derby, and anyone can get up for second (or even first), but last year I came out of the Derby thinking that a straight win bet would have been better than playing exotics. (mind you, I was obsessed with the Triactor)

I guess this is kind of a rambling post, so, to summarize, what do you think CC's odds would have to go down to in order to play more exotics?

[Sunday Silence]

I wish Revolutionary would have finished 2nd. I had $300 win on Orb and a $100 exacta box with Revolutionary. Man...

My main problem this year is some of the pretenders are getting knocked out early. Knocking the price down for the others.

Of course so much will depend on workouts and post position draw. That being said, my thoughts as of right now:

While I agree CC is the most probable winner, he isn't a lock to me. I'm probably betting Wicked Strong to win, with a big box to CC, a smaller box to Danza, and I'll toy with Hoppertunity plodding and staying for one of the underneath slots, and play ALL. It sounds like the obvious, but I don't see any real sleepers. Most of the pretenders really struggled finishing at 1 1/8, and they are throw outs for me in the Derby. I really can't see much outside of those 4. Danza is the interesting one - have no idea he'll win or run 15th. That last race was visually impressive.

[cordep17]

There's different type of bettors when it comes to the derby.......some always try to beat the chalk no matter what, some always bet the favorite & then you have the ones that try & find the best horse in the race looking to have a big outing, no matter if its the favorite or a 30-1 shot.

Winner of most accurate post of the year, and it's only April

Spot on :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[cordep17]

Just the top BSFs:

California Chrome
SA-G1: 107
SnF-G2: 108
Wicked Strong
WMem-G1: 104
Danza
Ark-G1: 102
Hoppertunity
SA-G1: 98
Reb-G2: 100
Wildcat Red
Fla-G1: 99
FOY-G2: 101
Chitu
Sun-G3: 102
RBL-G2: 95
General A Rod
Fla-G1: 97
FOY-G2: 101
Social Inclusion
WMem-G1: 98

Beyers do a great job in making everyone overlook performance quality. Look at the class and the pace of the races he won. They aren't extremely beneficial to him in helping prepare the horse for the derby. This is only one way to set your point as faulty. Other horses won and fought in more challenging races, where had they been given easy running lanes and such they'd have gotten a better Beyer. Or some of the derby are on an up turn while yours is a good candidate to regress after his last effort. Nothing alone can win a horse race. The small things people neglect when handicapping are what keep it all so challenging to perfect.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Thanks for posting the Beyers, BlueChip. They seem to provide a bit more separation for CC versus his peers when compared to the BRIS numbers, but it's not like he TOWERS over the rest of the three year-olds.

Obviously post position and track bias will be be huge - a closing track, and/or CC drawing 1-3, or 15+ post, and I'll be betting against him with some enthusiasm. A better post, and a fair or speed favoring track, then he could be tough. I still think he might be past his peak, though.

[Vinnie]

Past his peak? Has he even been tried in his last several races? He didn't even appear as though he had been out for a race in his past two or three races. He looked like he could take another lap around the track without issue. If he runs like he has been running, there isn't a soul that can catch him. I can't think of the last time that I have seen a horse that can separate himself from his competitors the way that CC does. His way of going late in the race is breathtaking. Barring heaven forbid something very unusual happening in the Derby, I truly believe that we are about to witness something very special in California Chrome's effort that he will put forth on May 3rd.

I can't wait! I can't remember the last time that I witnessed a horse of this kind of ability and or talent. :)

[tanner12oz]

then im just an asshole


to box all those horses under cal chrome bet jumps to 24

but danza hits 3rd and ill have him in my tri like that doing a big time tri

cal chrome w 10 horses w 11 horses = 100 bucks for $1

play it for .50 twice just in case you need to avoid the tax threshold

[tanner12oz]

I wonder what the lowest odds for a win bet are for good value.

Last year Orb was 5.40 as the favorite. 19 horses started, so $36 for Orb-all

If you just did a straight win bet, that should pay $230.40. A long shot placed, resulting in a huge exacta. But what if Revolutionary held second? His odds were 6.40.

I feel like the exacta would have paid less than the straight win bet. I'm not sure the math is this linear, but if 5-1/34-1 paid $900, could 5-1/6-1 have paid about $160?

Do you feel it is worth the risk? Clearly, California Chrome could be less than 5.4-1. But how much lower? Does anyone know of a "magic number" for his odds to change the play from a straight win to an exacta/other exotic play?

I know it's the Derby, and anyone can get up for second (or even first), but last year I came out of the Derby thinking that a straight win bet would have been better than playing exotics. (mind you, I was obsessed with the Triactor)

I guess this is kind of a rambling post, so, to summarize, what do you think CC's odds would have to go down to in order to play more exotics?

why not hit repeat I few times if your playing chalk over chalk? Or even chalk-chalk-spread? If there is even a time to play exotics its the derby

[BlueChip@DRF]

What would CC's odds be if he got post #1?

[SecretAgentMan]

Past his peak? Has he even been tried in his last several races? He didn't even appear as though he had been out for a race in his past two or three races. He looked like he could take another lap around the track without issue. If he runs like he has been running, there isn't a soul that can catch him. I can't think of the last time that I have seen a horse that can separate himself from his competitors the way that CC does. His way of going late in the race is breathtaking. Barring heaven forbid something very unusual happening in the Derby, I truly believe that we are about to witness something very special in California Chrome's effort that he will put forth on May 3rd.

I can't wait! I can't remember the last time that I witnessed a horse of this kind of ability and or talent. :)


I agree 100%.......

Now I'm waiting impatiently for the post position draw.......