Keeneland 4/18 selections

[letswastemoney]

Race 1

Some of these trainers have awful records at Keeneland.

I'll use the horses that have trainers with at least one win at Keeneland this year: :3: Who's Mary's Daddy (5/2), :4: Scenario Analysis (5/1) and :6: Star Passage (6/1).

[letswastemoney]

Race 2

Tough race, because I don't know how long these horses will last in a 1 3/16 mile race.

:5: Decamp (4/1) has the high TimeformUS figure, but it was earned in a sprint.

:4: Arch Pearl (9/2) is a little more reliable in terms of getting the distance.

:2: First Beach (4/1) seems like third best and has a good polytrack race at Turfway.

[letswastemoney]

Race 3

:1: Chart Topper (5/2) should handle these. That Feb. 22 race, if you study it, was a very productive one.

For a more off the wall pick, :5: Bisque (6/1) has a nifty 5F turf win ... at Indiana Downs.

[letswastemoney]

Race 4

Tough claiming race. Just pick names out of a hat.

:2: Remembermealways (3/1)

:4: Electro Peg (5/1)

:6: Jamraa (4/1)

:7: Sense of a Woman (10/1)

[letswastemoney]

Race 5

Two of these horses deserve consideration because of high percentage connections: :4: Hijo del Corredor (7/2) and :5: No Free Lunch (5/2).

The other two to consider are :6: War Ready (6/1) and :9: Borseggiatore (8/1). The latter has Nick Zito as the trainer and he struggles at Keeneland, however, the breeding is good for synthetic

[letswastemoney]

Race 6

A lot of these ones do not have the correct breeding for synthetic.

:2: Cozy Nicole (3/1) and :4: Ready Player One (5/2) look okay.

:7: Red Parasol's (20/1) second dam won on turf.

:11: Temper (12/1) has Giant's Causeway as the sire, always a force in synthetic racing.

[letswastemoney]

Race 7

It's not in my nature to pick a dirt horse for a polytrack race, but :10: Song to You (6/1) might be okay on it with Unbridled's Song as the sire.

The others to check out are :2: Midnight Notes (6/1), :3: Mt Tronador (6/1), :4: Rei (3/1)

The pace projector thinks the pace will be slow, and all those horse above will be at mid-pack or higher.

[letswastemoney]

Race 8

:6: Rosee Is Cozee (12/1) has incredible synthetic form at Turfway. If she translates that form here, she will be difficult to beat.

Unfortunately for her, this is a tough race.

:2: Lonesome Town (9/2), :7: Star Pearl (4/1), :9: Liberated (5/1) have a shot.

Maybe :3: Miss Lucky Sevens (8/1) too, although her trainer is low percentage.

[letswastemoney]

Race 9

Do you trust :10: Emollient (6/5)? Mike Smith is riding, which is a good thing.

:7: Sisterly Love (5/1) and :9: Solid Appeal (6/1) will get first jump.

[letswastemoney]

Race 10

They should call :11: Casino Dan (8/1) Fragile Dan. He rarely runs. But, the Wise Dan sibling can win here if he's ready.

:1: Transcend (3/1), :6: Twigazuri Strait (5/1) and :9: Honor the Kitten (5/2) are the three next best horses.

[Robert Fischer]

Race 2

Tough race, because I don't know how long these horses will last in a 1 3/16 mile race.

:5: Decamp (4/1) has the high TimeformUS figure, but it was earned in a sprint.

:4: Arch Pearl (9/2) is a little more reliable in terms of getting the distance.

:2: First Beach (4/1) seems like third best and has a good polytrack race at Turfway.

I pretty much agree with your picks here.
This may be a good betting race.
The ML Favorite :3: seems to want to hang in deep stretch. He's the best horse in the field up until that final 1/8th. The surface and distance could confuse the issue here. It's possible it could actually help him. However, it seems logical enough that the added distance will play against him.

:5: - His rival last time ran a huge effort in that race. The big stretch out calls for guesswork, but he evidently has some talent.

:4: - Has the long layoff, and then the odd work tab (3days,9days,5days,3days,7days), but his prior form is suited to the race conditions.

not so crazy about the 2.

:5::4::6::7:

[BettinBilly]

I agree for most of these, LWM. I'm also a Timeform Capper.

I appreciate the post. It is time to change my abysmal performance at KEE.

[dartman51]

Race 2

Tough race, because I don't know how long these horses will last in a 1 3/16 mile race.

:5: Decamp (4/1) has the high TimeformUS figure, but it was earned in a sprint.

:4: Arch Pearl (9/2) is a little more reliable in terms of getting the distance.

:2: First Beach (4/1) seems like third best and has a good polytrack race at Turfway.


:5: DACAMP has the edge by a good margin on distance pedigree.
I wouldn't completely discount the :1: in the exoctics. :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

looks like the ML was off for this race.

The 5 is currently favored, and the 3 is around 5-2.

Not getting the big overlay cushion I was hoping to work with.

[Racetrack Playa]

kee 3
:7: Federal Agent
Seems Overlooked 9-1 my pick

[Robert Fischer]

all right , i think everybody got that one :ThmbUp:

[dartman51]

KEENELAND 4

The :2: might be hard to beat in here, but I think the :5: COURTLY FLYER has a punchers chance. I would go with the :5: :ThmbUp:

Punchers chance :lol: I think he just got K.O.'d :D

[letswastemoney]

looks like the ML was off for this race.

The 5 is currently favored, and the 3 is around 5-2.

Not getting the big overlay cushion I was hoping to work with.

Ended up as a mix of our picks underneath, :5: :6: :4: :2:, and paid $199 for a $1 trifecta and $83 for a 10 cent superfecta. I was busy doing other stuff and didn't pay too much attention though (lol)

[Some_One]

Kee 7, the fav :8: might not get anything to run at late, looks like a spot for the :2: to steal something early.

[Some_One]

Kee 7, the fav :8: might not get anything to run at late, looks like a spot for the :2: to steal something early.

Yikes, that race ran nothing like I thought it would on paper

[coachv30]

Race 8

$1 TRI Box :8: :9: :1: :2:

$5 Win :1: :8: :9:

[Racetrack Playa]

Kee 8th
:10:Ambusher
:10://:1::3:ex

[coachv30]

Race 8

$1 TRI Box :8: :9: :1: :2:

$5 Win :1: :8: :9:


:1: :2: 10 7

:1: $16.00