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highnote
04-18-2014, 01:50 AM
Is anyone shorting the Yen?

ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) looks interesting.

People think the Yen will go to infinity due to Japan's aging demographics and their governments willingness to keep printing money in order to get inflation to 2%. They are trying hard to avoid depreciation and a depression that would follow.

Some of the Japanese problems are similar to what has happened in the United States. In both countries manufacturing jobs moved offshore where labor costs were lower. The "salary man" jobs of the past with full benefits has given way to part time retail and service jobs. It is estimated that 40% of the Japanese workers are employed in these lower paying jobs.

The Japanese population is shrinking and aging. Any significant immigration is not permitted. In this circumstance it is difficult to envision the return of a vibrant economy with consumers active, spending what amounted to 75% of the economy. Those days are gone and higher taxes and energy costs will only make things worse.

Dick Schmidt
04-19-2014, 05:29 PM
I suppose this would be interesting if you wanted to hold for the next 20 years, but it has little to do with the price of the Yen in the near future. And what currency would you use on the other side of the trade? You can't just short the Yen, you need to buy and hold something else. The dollar? The Euro? Both of them could decline just as far as the Yen. An interesting observation but one that is dificult to capitalize on.

Dick

All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise, not from defects in their Constitution or Confederation, not from want of honor or virtue, so much as from the downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation. ~John Adams

highnote
04-19-2014, 11:18 PM
YCS is an exchange-traded fund. When you go long YCS you are going short Yen.

If the Yen declines against the U.S.dollar then YCS goes up in value.

I suppose this would be considered holding U.S. dollars on the other side of the trade.

You're right that this could take 20 years. As the saying goes, "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."






I suppose this would be interesting if you wanted to hold for the next 20 years, but it has little to do with the price of the Yen in the near future. And what currency would you use on the other side of the trade? You can't just short the Yen, you need to buy and hold something else. The dollar? The Euro? Both of them could decline just as far as the Yen. An interesting observation but one that is dificult to capitalize on.

Dick

All the perplexities, confusion and distress in America arise, not from defects in their Constitution or Confederation, not from want of honor or virtue, so much as from the downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit and circulation. ~John Adams

RaceBookJoe
04-20-2014, 11:17 AM
Shorting the 6J , yen future, might be an option also.

badcompany
04-20-2014, 11:08 PM
You could also short FXY

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/189A282F-D58E-4963-8575-BF2440FED2EA-4423-0000077C9F0991F4_zps4c088a4a.jpg

highnote
04-23-2014, 08:17 PM
Thanks!

You could also short FXY

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/189A282F-D58E-4963-8575-BF2440FED2EA-4423-0000077C9F0991F4_zps4c088a4a.jpg