EVD is as random as they get

[Track Phantom]

Winner of the 1st on 4-17-14.

I'm all for prices but not when they look like this.

http://i968.photobucket.com/albums/ae169/valento07/MyFlitNFlot_zpsfe793467.jpg

[sandpit]

Maybe they were just waiting until they got a good price :lol:

Whatever happened between Jan. 31 and now worked for them. I guess that drop from maiden $10K at DED to $7,500 at EVD is a steep one. Plus, first time going 7F. Damn, wish I'd seen all this before he ran :eek:.

[HuggingTheRail]

Well, that was a smoking half mile comeback workout compared to the others pre-debut :D

[proximity]

(1) valento, you're a little intense sometimes but still one of my favorite posters here... but we're on PACE advantage, so where are the horse's moss pace figures?

(2) evd is the kind of outhouse where it's a good play to wait for a Sammy breaux horse that looks like crap but is maybe getting some mid level betting action. you might have the horse 15-1, 20-1 + but he opens at 3-1 and drifts up to 5-1 or 6-1. not really my style of play, but when in Louisiana....:rolleyes:

[ReplayRandall]

Thanks for the post. I will put Ronnie Averett on my trainer watch list. He's now 2 for 2 at EVD, and looks like he's found a new vet.............

[raybo]

As was mentioned, that last workout was much better than the others listed, and on a muddy track. The horse also broke better in its last race. Appears that he has matured a bit recently.

[parlay]

i don't typically yell and scream "fix" when i can't understand a result,
BUT i will only play that track when i am bored, i play my favourite numbers and i am really happy when they are long odds.
I can not cap there

[Exotic1]

Winner of the 1st on 4-17-14.

I'm all for prices but not when they look like this.

http://i968.photobucket.com/albums/ae169/valento07/MyFlitNFlot_zpsfe793467.jpg

Based on the PP's, the horse looks pretty consistent to me.

La. Bred 7.5k Mdns. Nuff said

[wisconsin]

As was mentioned, that last workout was much better than the others listed, and on a muddy track. The horse also broke better in its last race. Appears that he has matured a bit recently.


That's a stretch for a horse who, in 3 races, beat just one horse collectively.
Nothing here would lead me to bet this horse, even with someone else's money.

[lamboguy]

$160 is an underlay on that horse in Evangeline. the price should have been about 830-1 by my calculations. horses that have that type of form win once a twice a year at any track. but you will lose a lot of money chasing them.

[raybo]

That's a stretch for a horse who, in 3 races, beat just one horse collectively.
Nothing here would lead me to bet this horse, even with someone else's money.

I didn't say I would have bet the horse, but being a 3 yo, and having the good workout on an off track, etc., it's not too surprising that the horse "woke up" between its last race and this one, especially at EvD where, like DeD, you have to look at things that you might not at other tracks. This result is not unusual at smaller tracks like this, and one of the reasons I choose to play them.

[Tom]

Coming off a triple top - he had to improve.
Can't beat those Beyer bagels.

[HUSKER55]

there is a reason god made bourbon :D

[Tall One]

Maybe they were just waiting until they got a good price :lol:

Whatever happened between Jan. 31 and now worked for them. I guess that drop from maiden $10K at DED to $7,500 at EVD is a steep one. Plus, first time going 7F. Damn, wish I'd seen all this before he ran :eek:.


He ran somewhat closer to the pace last out...but still.. :faint:

[Stillriledup]

The ultimate debate in horse racing and the question that we always need to answer is this.

Can a horse who "cant win" actually win?

This means, no matter how bad a horse looks, if it wins, there was something within its body, legs and heart, that gave it enough talent to win some race at some track.

The question isn't "how did this horse win" its more of "what did i miss".

If you win, you were good enough to win by definition, usually, when this happens, we have overrated the competition...if a horse who looks horrendous on paper wins, the horse's he beat, who probably looked better, were in fact, not....the key was just to find a way to know this before the race and if you don't find a way to know it before the race, find a way to figure it out AFTER so you're better prepared next time.

[wisconsin]

I didn't say I would have bet the horse, but being a 3 yo, and having the good workout on an off track, etc., it's not too surprising that the horse "woke up" between its last race and this one, especially at EvD where, like DeD, you have to look at things that you might not at other tracks. This result is not unusual at smaller tracks like this, and one of the reasons I choose to play them.

I never insinuated that you would bet such a horse. I said I would never bet a horse like this.

Anyone can attempt to guess what "clue" was missed after a bizarre win. There simply is no clue to be had with this horse. A poor boy jock who gets 20 mounts per month and an 0-21 trainer sending out a runner with concrete hooves hardly inspires.

The way the horse won is another story. You could not possibly feel he would be "sent" with the leaders in this spot, but when he was, he responded to it, and battled without the usual fade. Who knew?

That's why we love this game.

[bks]

First time gelding?

[thaskalos]

The ultimate debate in horse racing and the question that we always need to answer is this.

Can a horse who "cant win" actually win?

This means, no matter how bad a horse looks, if it wins, there was something within its body, legs and heart, that gave it enough talent to win some race at some track.

The question isn't "how did this horse win" its more of "what did i miss".

If you win, you were good enough to win by definition, usually, when this happens, we have overrated the competition...if a horse who looks horrendous on paper wins, the horse's he beat, who probably looked better, were in fact, not....the key was just to find a way to know this before the race and if you don't find a way to know it before the race, find a way to figure it out AFTER so you're better prepared next time.

OK...look at the past performances that the OP provided...and tell us what the bettors missed.

[Zaf]

Coming off a triple top - he had to improve.
Can't beat those Beyer bagels.

I Laughed :lol: I actually cash tickets at this place , one of the few tracks i do well at.

[fmolf]

I Laughed :lol: I actually cash tickets at this place , one of the few tracks i do well at.
the only way i cash tickets is by playing exactas in fields of 10 or more.
all/the post time fav.....have gotten some big prices with this play.especially on the turf when fav.is 2/1 or higher.
my best results come in any maiden race, and alw. races where favorite is a claiming horse racing against a few lightly raced horses never in for a tag.

[raybo]

First time gelding?

No, he was gelded before his first race. He did have a nose roll in this race however, and not in his last race, at least from what I could tell from that video. In his last race, it appeared the horse didn't have much of a clue what it was doing, nor that he even wanted to race the other horses. After that race he took 2 1/2 months off, and had only 1 "published" work and that one was at a training track (FOL?). That work was NOT on a muddy track as I posted earlier, it was a gate work (4/5/2014 FOL 4f 50.22 Bg 4/16), as have been 2 of its 3 published works.

The horse didn't appear to care for Delta, or racing for that matter, then has 1 published work on another surface (much improved over his other works), then adds a nose roll, breaks well in this race but tried to turn right out of the gate and got bumped around pretty good, then settled and went forward to take a stalking position early. So obviously, something happened during the layoff, because his previous races showed little interest in racing the field. In this one, the horse looked like a totally different horse, engaging the field willingly while running a much more experienced race, once it settled out of the gate.

Appears to be just a case of the horse learning that he's out there to race, not just mess around. Don't know if the addition of the nose roll helped or not, but it obviously didn't hurt - LOL. The drop in class, the added distance, different track, a 10 pound advantage on most of the field (110), and a lengthy rest, and whatever training they did with him, all may have suited him.

The difference in the way the horse ran in this race compared to its last, was like night and day, in the last he looked like a complete novice and in this one he looked like a battle hardened veteran, stalking, then moving at the right time and fighting to the end.

After handicapping the race, based on numbers, he would have been a complete toss for me. But, obviously this colt "woke up" sometime between its last race and this race. Will be interesting to see what they do with him now. Do they enter him in a $5K clm sprint, or do they enter him at a higher price and maybe run in a route? The fractions in this race were decent, for horses in this class and distance at EvD (23.20, 46.99, 1:13.02, 1:26.70), and he did not appear to be dead in the stretch, maybe he does even better at route distances?

[luisbe]

Right now another chance, will you take it?

[HuggingTheRail]

"off slow, finished slower"

[iceknight]

Race 7 on Sat
:8: a 55/1 shot and :12: a 50-1 shot finish 1-2.

And no, I bet on :6: at 25-1

[Some_One]

Right now another chance, will you take it?

So the angle is now 1 for 2 with a +4000% ROI.

[Mineshaft]

No, he was gelded before his first race. He did have a nose roll in this race however, and not in his last race, at least from what I could tell from that video. In his last race, it appeared the horse didn't have much of a clue what it was doing, nor that he even wanted to race the other horses. After that race he took 2 1/2 months off, and had only 1 "published" work and that one was at a training track (FOL?). That work was NOT on a muddy track as I posted earlier, it was a gate work (4/5/2014 FOL 4f 50.22 Bg 4/16), as have been 2 of its 3 published works.

The horse didn't appear to care for Delta, or racing for that matter, then has 1 published work on another surface (much improved over his other works), then adds a nose roll, breaks well in this race but tried to turn right out of the gate and got bumped around pretty good, then settled and went forward to take a stalking position early. So obviously, something happened during the layoff, because his previous races showed little interest in racing the field. In this one, the horse looked like a totally different horse, engaging the field willingly while running a much more experienced race, once it settled out of the gate.

Appears to be just a case of the horse learning that he's out there to race, not just mess around. Don't know if the addition of the nose roll helped or not, but it obviously didn't hurt - LOL. The drop in class, the added distance, different track, a 10 pound advantage on most of the field (110), and a lengthy rest, and whatever training they did with him, all may have suited him.

The difference in the way the horse ran in this race compared to its last, was like night and day, in the last he looked like a complete novice and in this one he looked like a battle hardened veteran, stalking, then moving at the right time and fighting to the end.

After handicapping the race, based on numbers, he would have been a complete toss for me. But, obviously this colt "woke up" sometime between its last race and this race. Will be interesting to see what they do with him now. Do they enter him in a $5K clm sprint, or do they enter him at a higher price and maybe run in a route? The fractions in this race were decent, for horses in this class and distance at EvD (23.20, 46.99, 1:13.02, 1:26.70), and he did not appear to be dead in the stretch, maybe he does even better at route distances?




don't trust any work at FOL.

[Driver8]

We have horses that run at Evangeline but often train them at Evangeline Training Center. Most days they don't have a clocker there so it's likely this horse may have been training well at ETC but the works weren't published. Just an idea... :)

[tzipi]

As was mentioned, that last workout was much better than the others listed, and on a muddy track. The horse also broke better in its last race. Appears that he has matured a bit recently.

No way. There are a million merry go round horses with decent works in the morning and they all do nothing. No way this horse should've won. :D

[raybo]

No way. There are a million merry go round horses with decent works in the morning and they all do nothing. No way this horse should've won. :D

Well, let's see. The horse did win, didn't it? Obviously something happened during the layoff, because the horse ran totally different than before the layoff. I'm not saying that the workout was enough to think it would run as well as it did, only that it was a much better workout than previously.

[tzipi]

Well, let's see. The horse did win, didn't it? Obviously something happened during the layoff, because the horse ran totally different than before the layoff. I'm not saying that the workout was enough to think it would run as well as it did, only that it was a much better workout than previously.

I was just saying of course you can find anything with a "no way win" horse. About a year or so ago I posted a horse that lost by 25+ lengths 4 times to start his career and then won by 3 to pay over $140. The person said I missed it because the horse was dropping 2 lbs. Yeah ha.

I mean listen, if you play all these lose by 30+ length horses who happen to have a fast workout in the morning you'll go broke. It's no angle and the horse did not just wake up to be a runner by some no win trainer. Look at Cliffs Girl above. Had a good/better workout too. Nada... finished up the track. It's always an angle, never anything else. If handicappers really believed that, it wouldn't have gone off anywhere close to the odds it did.

[raybo]

I was just saying of course you can find anything with a "no way win" horse. About a year or so ago I posted a horse that lost by 25+ lengths 4 times to start his career and then won by 3 to pay over $140. The person said I missed it because the horse was dropping 2 lbs. Yeah ha.

I mean listen, if you play all these lose by 30+ length horses who happen to have a fast workout in the morning you'll go broke. It's no angle and the horse did not just wake up to be a runner by some no win trainer. Look at Cliffs Girl above. Had a good/better workout too. Nada... finished up the track. It's always an angle, never anything else. If handicappers really believed that, it wouldn't have gone off anywhere close to the odds it did.

Obviously you didn't really read what I wrote about that workout, did you? The workout might have been a clue to his much improved performance, or not. But it's there and the horse won nonetheless. A 3 yo horse runs 3 rear-end races in its first 3 races and then totally changes everything after a layoff. I don't know what happened during that layoff, but something obviously did happen. That's all I'm saying.

[AlbertButtry]

The horse came back and ran second at 40-1 going 6 furlongs on Friday night. He rallied from last to get beat a little over 2 lengths by a 4/5 shot.