4/17 Keeneland picks

[letswastemoney]

I don't have time to write full analysis, but here are some thoughts on each race.

Race 1

:6: Forget That Gal (7/5) is a deserving favorite, but if the pace is fast, the three horses projected to be at the back, :1a: Gentle One (15/1), :3: Silver Arch (4/1) and :5: Iron Ginny (7/2) all have a shot.

[letswastemoney]

Race 2

Of the two Wesley Ward entries, the one with the correct breeding for this short little race is :2: Hootenanny (5/2).

The other Ward, :3: Circle the World (2/1) is my second choice.

If they fail, the Casse entry :4: Circle the World (9/5) should do it.

[letswastemoney]

Race 3

This is a very difficult race where a lot of the horses look the same.

I HATE taking A.P. Indy progeny on turf. But, :8: Secret Someone (4/1) looks okay. Jose Lezcano is a turf jockey and should give a good ride.

[letswastemoney]

Race 4

:11: Wild Swava (1/1) has a sizable speed figure advantage. Maybe the post hurts though.

Some alternatives are :1: Give Me Thy Heart (15/1) and :9: Rob and John's Girl (8/1).

[letswastemoney]

Race 5

This turf race is loaded with inexperienced horses and first time starters.

:9: Reeder's (10/1) dam, Constant Touch, failed miserably in her dirt debut, then improved by a lot on turf and ended up winning more than one turf race before her career ended.

That's good enough for me to make him the top choice.

:3: Dr. Abramson (6/1), :4: Uncle Muggs (8/1) and :8: Otokogi (6/1) are the other options.

[letswastemoney]

Race 6

1 1/2 mile races on turf are traditionally difficult.

The pace should favor those on or near the lead. :6: Comes the Dream (6/1) is projected to be in third early, and will get first run on the leaders. He likes longer distances, judging by his win at the same distance at Kentucky Downs.

My other two choices are :4: Draw Two (5/2) and :7: Formidable Heart (6/1).

[letswastemoney]

Race 7

This idea is a bit more in left field. For :9: Cadron (20/1), I don't care too much about the fact she stopped badly in her debut this year, which was on dirt. I can also forgive the sharp fade at Santa Anita on dirt in October.

The maiden breaker on Del Mar polytrack in July was a good one, and the slow speed figure may scare people away, but she was 2 years old so what do you expect?

The other choices are :2: Henny Jenny (7/2), :3: Annoy (5/1) and :10: Abbys Promise (20/1)...and :5: E Built This City (6/1) too.

[letswastemoney]

Race 8

:9: Resistivity (5/1) was pounded by 25 lengths in the Ashland, but I'm not too concerned about that fade considering the pace. Her effort on turf two starts back was excellent.

The two former Euros, :3: Lacarolina (7/2) and :4: Sweet Acclaim (8/1) should make their presence felt too. They're both getting lasix.

:11: Maria Maria (20/1) finished third against Bobby's Kitten last time. I can only assume she's 20/1 because the oddsmaker is baiting the public into looking at this race. Then again, the trainer is 0 for 11 at Keeneland, so that part sucks.

:2: Zinzay (6/1) can factor too.

[letswastemoney]

Oops, correction for Race 5, it's a synthetic race...but..oh well it's not like that will change my selections much! Colebrook does well with first time starters.

[letswastemoney]

Race 9

Colebrook sends out another first time starter here, :11: Madaket (10/1).

Other than her, :6: Aunty Pearl (6/1) has been competing at Gulfstream, which always has tough races in the early spring, while :10: Shy Rosa (7/2) has some good synthetic races at Turfway and in Europe.