When are Derby Preps really Preps???

[BigJake]

This sounds like a weird question, but how long has it been since a horse won the Wood/Bluegrass/Arkansas and gone on to win the derby? Do trainers use these races to prep good horses or do they really run them to win? My history doesn't go back very far but I know the last two years they haven't. I am also interested in hearing how many people are actually going to put their money on Cliff, Tapit, or Smarty.

Jake

[Tom]

The Wood is a good stepping stone for Derby winners.
Go the drf.com and look up the Derby winners history-they have the PP's of all the recent winers and you see exactly what routes they took to the roses and what Beyers they earned etc.

[Bubbles]

Originally posted by BigJake
This sounds like a weird question, but how long has it been since a horse won the Wood/Bluegrass/Arkansas and gone on to win the derby? Do trainers use these races to prep good horses or do they really run them to win? My history doesn't go back very far but I know the last two years they haven't. I am also interested in hearing how many people are actually going to put their money on Cliff, Tapit, or Smarty.

Jake

I believe Fusaichi Pegasus was the last to do this. I could be wrong, though.

[fmhealth]

Very interesting question. Here's an overview of the last 11 Derby winners. Only three won their race prior to the Derby. They were Fus.Peg who won the Wood, Charismatic who won the Coolmore Lexington & War Emblem who was victorious in the Illinois Derby.

Monarchos, Go for Gin & Funny Cide all ran 2nd in the Wood.
Sea Hero & Thunder Gulch ran 4th in the Blue Grass.
Both Silver Charm & Real Quiet ran 2nd in the SA Derby.
Grindstone also ran 2nd in the Ark. Derby.

So, it would seem that horses that win these preps may actually be peaking a race too soon. And that the runner-ups are sitting on a top effort.

Also, the greatest Beyer increase was a +14. Accomplished by both War Emblem & Charismatic. I believe that The Cliffs Edge had a +21. Could he have peaked too soon as well??

[Valuist]

Only 3 of the last 11 may have won their final prep, but the majority of the 11 were actually the best horse in their last prep.

2003-I did feel Empire Maker was better than Funny Cide in the Wood; partly due to Bailey's ride. In any event, the final margin was only a neck.

2002- War Emblem buried a field at Spt that had Repent as the heavy chalk.

2001- Monarchos runs second in the Wood, probably compromised by a soft pace. At SA, Point Given is the beneficiary of a soft pace.

2000- FuPeg wins Wood. Can't remember the specifics but I thought he was fairly clearly the best

1999-Charismatic runs his eyeballs out to destroy the Lexington field.

1998-Slow pace scenario in the SA Derby benefits Indian Charlie and hurts Real Quiet who runs a very solid second. The better horse came back to win at CD..

1997- Silver Charm duels thru a 1:09 and change and loses a photo finish. Even the media was smart enough to figure out who really was best in the SA Derby.

1996-can't remember Grindstone's preps
1995-An incredibly slow pace (around :50) in the Blue Grass totally compromises Thunder Gulch and Tejano Run, who come back to run 1-2 with a legit pace

1994-can't remember GO for Gins' Wood
1990-Unbridled is hurt by Kee's rail bias and Summer Squall being lone speed
1989-Sunday Silence murders the field at SA while Easy Goer beat some nobodies by 2-3 lengths.

I'd say the horses who qualify this year are: Lion Heart (Blue Grass), Rock Hard Ten (SA Derby) possibly Eddington or Tapit in the Wood. I'm still undecided on the ARky Derby. I thought the pace was soft. I'm not sure Smarty Jones ran better than the 3rd place finisher.

[BigJake]

Val

Are you saying you think a winner from last weekend (or Castledale from the weekend before) will win the derby? I personally think we'll have one of the best betting Derby's in years. The favorite maybe at 4-1. No one has a clue about who should win, and if you include the 4 prep winners (I have included Castledale) there are weakness in all of them.

Will Castledale and Cliff get any speed to run at?
Is Smarty Jones good enough or has he been racing against soft company?
Tapit won running one of the slowest times on the card last Saturday.

Last year I though Maker was far and away the best horse ( I still think that). This year I don't have a clue.

Jake

[Valuist]

The winner probably ran last Saturday. Horses just don't win the Derby off layoffs of over a month (i.e. Read the Footnotes, Friends Lake and Birdstone). It seems like the harder the training regimen, the more likely the horse will run well in the Derby. You'd think the Europeans and Godolphin would figure this out but instead they send out unprepared horses like Arazi and Johannesburg, not to mention the Curules etc.

It looks like one of the legit contenders to win, Rock Hard Ten will probably run in the Derby Trial instead, according to Saturdays DRF. They really need to figure out a different way of who should start. Graded earnings from races under a mile should not count.

[andicap]

Thunder Gulch may have also bounced in his prep after two strong wins and then recovered for the Derby.

The horse that really befuddled me was Sea Hero who had run a series of dull races after a great race in the mud in the fall at Belmont. It's not as if he went on to a steller career either after the Derby as I recall.

The fact is the best horse doesn't always win the Derby -- that's why many people go for the price rather than the best horse. With such a big field, the uncertainty over the distance, etc., there's a lot of chaos involved.

I wish every race were like the Derby -- very easy to find value. Every longshot that has won recently has had a race in its last two that put it right there in the top tier.

[Valuist]

Andicap-

I agree 100%. Its easier to find value in the Derby than any other race, probably because there's so much uninformed money. Sea Hero was one I didn't have either. I was never impressed by him and or his offspring. I believe he's at stud in Turkey or some place like that.

But as for the best horse winning the race, I can't think of too cases where the best didn't win. Ultimately, Point Given proved he was much better than Monarchos and Hansel proved he was better than Strike the Gold. Risen Star should've won the Derby (and Triple Crown) in 1988. We don't know about Grindstone because he was retired right away. Go ForGin may be another, as Tabasco Cat beat him in the Preakness and Belmont.

[delayjf]

Grindstrone won his first prep in the Louisiana Derby at the FGs. Did he then bounce in the Ark Derby. If so, Wimbleton also fits this pattern.

[Skanoochies]

A funny story appeared in the DRF some thirty or so years ago. A trainer for a horse running in one of the major prep races, instructed his rider that his horse was entered for the sole purpose of getting a beneficial race under his belt. He did not want him pushed to an all out effort to win the race. After running third, the trainer asked if the jock thought he could handle the first two horses next time, and he replied "Yeah, but those seven behind me are going to be a problem." :D

Skanoochies.:)

[BigJake]

Instead of Preps being Preps, how many people believe in the Bounce.

Jake