TimeformUS winning Derby speed figures

[cj]

Orb 111
I'll Have Another 116
Animal Kingdom 117
Super Saver 112
Mine that Bird 117
Big Brown 119
Street Sense 118
Barbaro 121
Giacomo 112
Smarty Jones 117

[cj]

...and these are the leaders so far this year at 1m 1/16 or longer:

1 Wicked Strong 117
2 Soc Incl 115
3 Soc Incl 114
4 Samraat 114
5 Schivarelli 113
6 Cal Chrome 113
7 Cal Chrome 111
8 Danza 110
9 Uncle Sigh 110
10 Samraat 110

[SecretAgentMan]

Orb 111
I'll Have Another 116
Animal Kingdom 117
Super Saver 112
Mine that Bird 117
Big Brown 119
Street Sense 118
Barbaro 121
Giacomo 112
Smarty Jones 117

Cj......are these speed figs after the derby was fun or are they the races leading up to the derby?

[cj]

Cj......are these speed figs after the derby was fun or are they the races leading up to the derby?

Those are for the Derby itself. If you have specific horses you want to know going into the Derby I can try to post that tomorrow, too much going on today! (taxes :mad: )

[Tom]

Taxes - the downside to having good pace figures!

[SecretAgentMan]

Those are for the Derby itself. If you have specific horses you want to know going into the Derby I can try to post that tomorrow, too much going on today! (taxes :mad: )


Don't bother, its way too much work. Here's another ? In the past when you've done this, how has the top 3 of your speed figs done in the derby, if you have these results & can easily look them up, if not, don't bother if its to much work.......thanks in advance!

[Speed Figure]

My top derby prep winners look like this.



California Chrome SA Derby 113.8
Danza Ark Derby 111.6
Vicar's In Trouble LA Derby 111.3
Wicked Strong WoodMem 110.2
Chitu Sun Derby 110.2
Dance With Fate BlueGras 106.2
Constitution Fla Derby 104.4

[BettinBilly]

Thanks for sharing, CJ. I'm on board with those, of you know what I mean. ;)

Time Fig, I also appreciate your post. Interesting.

[Cratos]

...and these are the leaders so far this year at 1m 1/16 or longer:

1 Wicked Strong 117
2 Soc Incl 115
3 Soc Incl 114
4 Samraat 114
5 Schivarelli 113
6 Cal Chrome 113
7 Cal Chrome 111
8 Danza 110
9 Uncle Sigh 110
10 Samraat 110

I agree with your placements of Wicked Strong and California Chrome. However I would move Samraat higher, maybe that is my NY bias.

[cj]

I agree with your placements of Wicked Strong and California Chrome. However I would move Samraat higher, maybe that is my NY bias.

He is on there twice, only two horses ahead of him...and of those isn't going to make the Derby.

[TheEdge07]

He is on there twice, only two horses ahead of him...and of those isn't going to make the Derby.

Cj, with the the major preps now completed in your opinion who ran best in the toughest prep?

[Vinnie]

My top derby prep winners look like this.



California Chrome SA Derby 113.8
Danza Ark Derby 111.6
Vicar's In Trouble LA Derby 111.3
Wicked Strong WoodMem 110.2
Chitu Sun Derby 110.2
Dance With Fate BlueGras 106.2
Constitution Fla Derby 104.4




Greetings Speed:

I hope that you are doing well? :) My numbers pretty much fall in line with yours. If he runs like he has been running of late, pretty much everyone else will be struggling to stay in CC's wake for the Derby IMO. I hope that all of the talk continues up to the Derby about CC just being a Cal Bred, and on and on. It will most assuredly only help his odds come Derby day.

[Leparoux]

Great stuff CJ.

Interesting Orb with the lowest on the list and never won again after the Derby.

[taxicab]

...and these are the leaders so far this year at 1m 1/16 or longer:

1 Wicked Strong 117
2 Soc Incl 115
3 Soc Incl 114
4 Samraat 114
5 Schivarelli 113
6 Cal Chrome 113
7 Cal Chrome 111
8 Danza 110
9 Uncle Sigh 110
10 Samraat 110


Thanks for posting this.
I'm starting to think I misread the strength of the Wood.
This is the third legit listing I've seen giving the Wood props.
I had the Wood behind a bunch of the preps.
It worries me if I'm this wrong on my read......Ugh.
I have no choice, I'm going have to revisit the race.

[JustRalph]

Great stuff CJ.

Interesting Orb with the lowest on the list and never won again after the Derby.

Shades of Monarchos

[cj]

Cj, with the the major preps now completed in your opinion who ran best in the toughest prep?

Social Inclusion.

[cj]

Cj......are these speed figs after the derby was fun or are they the races leading up to the derby?

Here is what I have for the last 10. It lists Derby figure, prior race, and lifetime best before the Derby if not in the prior race:

[SecretAgentMan]

Thanks Cj, much appreciated.......gotta love those 120's in Smarty Jones & Big Brown.

Cj, how has your speed figs done over all with figuring out who will win the derby? Also, when you incorporate your figs into this years batch, what else do you look at to solidify a horse to wager on? Thanks in advance!

[cj]

Thanks Cj, much appreciated.......gotta love those 120's in Smarty Jones & Big Brown.

Cj, how has your speed figs done over all with figuring out who will win the derby? Also, when you incorporate your figs into this years batch, what else do you look at to solidify a horse to wager on? Thanks in advance!

I have to check on Smarty Jones, those might be a little off. I think the calculations were a little different back then. Big Brown's are legit though for sure.

The figures have been very solid over the years. The horses I've learned to be leery of are those that run a big number out of nowhere in the race prior to before the Derby. The figures usually do a good job of isolating the contenders and from there I go with the odds. Trips usually play a big part in the outcome of the Derby, more than any other race.

[SecretAgentMan]

The only posts I don't like are the 1 & 2 hole. I know you have Wicked Strong as a high number but I just think he's a fluke. I never like horses that can't run on different tracks.

[cj]

The only posts I don't like are the 1 & 2 hole. I know you have Wicked Strong as a high number but I just think he's a fluke. I never like horses that can't run on different tracks.

To be fair to Wicked Strong, he drew impossible outside posts at the mile and a sixteenth distance at Gulfstream, and both tracks sure looked to be speed favoring as well. I also think at least one of the races featured a very slow pace (off the top of my head.) I think both races were total throw outs for him. Still, I would have liked to see him do a little more running regardless of the tough circumstances he faced.

[Longshot]

CJ will Timeform US be offering an advance version PPs for say the top 24
possible Kentucky Derby horses.

[cj]

CJ will Timeform US be offering an advance version PPs for say the top 24
possible Kentucky Derby horses.

I just asked, will post more when I know.

[cj]

We will not be doing that this year, but I will provide a figures version in the next few days and post it here.

[Longshot]

Thanks CJ

[plainolebill]

Thanks CJ!

[SecretAgentMan]

Cj, when trying to figure out the winner of the derby, doyou also look at beyer figs, Tomlinson ratings & if so, does it help to pick the winner or eliminate horsesby combining all 3?

[cj]

Cj, when trying to figure out the winner of the derby, doyou also look at beyer figs, Tomlinson ratings & if so, does it help to pick the winner or eliminate horsesby combining all 3?

No, I don't use any of that other stuff. I've been using my own numbers since the late 90s. I used to look at the Beyers, but I never do any longer.

[soupman2]

CJ said: The figures have been very solid over the years. The horses I've learned to be leery of are those that run a big number out of nowhere in the race prior to before the Derby.

CJ how do you mean you are leery? That if they run a big number out of nowhere they are a contender or a bounce candidate? No sure how you are leery.

Thanks for the good info.

Bob

[Robert Fischer]

CJ

Can't wait to see the Pace Projector for the Derby field.

[cj]

CJ said: The figures have been very solid over the years. The horses I've learned to be leery of are those that run a big number out of nowhere in the race prior to before the Derby.

CJ how do you mean you are leery? That if they run a big number out of nowhere they are a contender or a bounce candidate? No sure how you are leery.

Thanks for the good info.

Bob

Very few horses that "explode" to a big new top in the race prior to the Derby back it up.

[Valuist]

Very few horses that "explode" to a big new top in the race prior to the Derby back it up.

That would not bode well for Danza or Wicked Strong.

There's a few that seemed to move forward strongly in their final prep and did win. Not sure how they did on your figs but these would be worth looking into:
War Emblem, Charismatic and Fusaichi Pegasus.

[MNslappy]

Horses who ran at least 10 points faster in their last prep than they had in any previous race at a mile or longer, according to the BRIS #s are:

Danza
Wicked Strong
Vicar's in Trouble
Dance with Fate

[cj]

Very few horses that "explode" to a big new top in the race prior to the Derby back it up.

Here are some horse that ran big tops pre-Derby:

Brancusi
Indian Express
Ten Most Wanted
The Cliff's Edge
Castledale
Sir Cherokee
Greeley's Galaxy
High Fly
Bandini
Bellamy Road
Sinister Minister
Sweetnorthernsaint
Recapturetheglory
Regal Ransom
Summer Bird
Ice Box
Line of David
Twice the Appeal
Master of Hounds
Shackleford
Lines of Battle
Daddy Long Legs
Dullahan
Went the Day Well
Sabercat

A couple ran well, but only a couple, and none won.

[SecretAgentMan]

Horses who ran at least 10 points faster in their last prep than they had in any previous race at a mile or longer, according to the BRIS #s are:

Danza
Wicked Strong
Vicar's in Trouble
Dance with Fate


Good to know, never liked Wicked Strong & this solidifies it. Vicars will get into trouble IMO, the horsewill go to the front if no one else does & get burnt or make a middle move & fade.

[cj]

That would not bode well for Danza or Wicked Strong.

There's a few that seemed to move forward strongly in their final prep and did win. Not sure how they did on your figs but these would be worth looking into:
War Emblem, Charismatic and Fusaichi Pegasus.

Those are a little before I have data. I'm sure you are right about Charasmatic. I had War Emblem fast before the Illinois Derby, that I know for sure. I was on his bandwagon for a while. Pegasus I really don't remember.

[SecretAgentMan]

Here are some horse that ran big tops pre-Derby:

Brancusi
Indian Express
Ten Most Wanted
The Cliff's Edge
Castledale
Sir Cherokee
Greeley's Galaxy
High Fly
Bandini
Bellamy Road
Sinister Minister
Sweetnorthernsaint
Recapturetheglory
Regal Ransom
Summer Bird
Ice Box
Line of David
Twice the Appeal
Master of Hounds
Shackleford
Lines of Battle
Daddy Long Legs
Dullahan
Went the Day Well
Sabercat

A couple ran well, but only a couple, and none won.

Thanks for making this list Cj.......I was about to look this up, saved me some time, good stuff.

[SecretAgentMan]

Those are a little before I have data. I'm sure you are right about Charasmatic. I had War Emblem fast before the Illinois Derby, that I know for sure. I was on his bandwagon for a while. Pegasus I really don't remember.


I can only go off of beyer figs with the following:

Charismatic.....94, 95, 94, 108 (before derby)

F. Pegasus.......103, 106, 111 (not much of a jump, pretty steady)

War Emblem......85, 98, 112 (14 point jump but Baffert picked him up like 2 weeks before derby & had him cranked & wanted to see if he was a derby horse, understandably, so I excuse the 14 point jump, although this horse showed much potential before Baffert)

[cj]

I can only go off of beyer figs with the following:

Charismatic.....94, 95, 94, 108 (before derby)

F. Pegasus.......103, 106, 111 (not much of a jump, pretty steady)

War Emblem......85, 98, 112 (14 point jump but Baffert picked him up like 2 weeks before derby & had him cranked & wanted to see if he was a derby horse, understandably, so I excuse the 14 point jump, although this horse showed much potential before Baffert)

Sounds right on the first two, but I disagreed strongly with that 98 in WE's allowance race. Way back in the day I posted here how I liked him in the Illinios Derby because of that, and he beat Repent easily.

[classhandicapper]

Sounds right on the first two, but I disagreed strongly with that 98 in WE's allowance race. Way back in the day I posted here how I liked him in the Illinios Derby because of that, and he beat Repent easily.

Yes.

His prior race was one of those disputed figures that after the fact was almost certainly very fast also.

[Valuist]

Here are some horse that ran big tops pre-Derby:

Brancusi
Indian Express
Ten Most Wanted
The Cliff's Edge
Castledale
Sir Cherokee
Greeley's Galaxy
High Fly
Bandini
Bellamy Road
Sinister Minister
Sweetnorthernsaint
Recapturetheglory
Regal Ransom
Summer Bird
Ice Box
Line of David
Twice the Appeal
Master of Hounds
Shackleford
Lines of Battle
Daddy Long Legs
Dullahan
Went the Day Well
Sabercat

A couple ran well, but only a couple, and none won.

Interesting list. We may be able to whittle it down a bit. It looks like there's several Euros on here: Master of Hounds, Daddy Long Legs, Lines of Battle. And I believe Regal Ransom came from Dubai. We also have a couple horses who moved up on Poly: Dullahan and Went the Day Well. Most of those horses did not figure to run particularly well, although Dullahan did finish 3rd.

[DRIVEWAY]

Very few horses that "explode" to a big new top in the race prior to the Derby back it up.

Do you think this is due to the dreaded "bounce", the added distance, the pace or troubled trip? In a 20 horse field stuff happens.

Of those with the big top prior to the Derby, how many went on to redeem themselves in subsequent efforts.

If there are five horses in the derby with big tops in their prior race, then no matter what at least four will fail to some degree.

In the Derby, when Ability meets Mr. Lucky, Ability goes 8 wide while Mr. Lucky splits horses on the way to victory. That's the thrill and excitement that surrounds the Derby.

Ferdinand, in post number one, was squeezed at the start back to last. Shoe patiently and uneventfully moved him into contention but behind a wall of horses nearing the top of the stretch. While thousands screamed "Get Him Thru" the Red Sea parted and Ferdinand went on to victory for the Shoe.

[cj]

Interesting list. We may be able to whittle it down a bit. It looks like there's several Euros on here: Master of Hounds, Daddy Long Legs, Lines of Battle. And I believe Regal Ransom came from Dubai. We also have a couple horses who moved up on Poly: Dullahan and Went the Day Well. Most of those horses did not figure to run particularly well, although Dullahan did finish 3rd.

Pretty sure several of those took a lot of money too.

[cj]

Do you think this is due to the dreaded "bounce", the added distance, the pace or troubled trip? In a 20 horse field stuff happens.

Of those with the big top prior to the Derby, how many went on to redeem themselves in subsequent efforts.

If there are five horses in the derby with big tops in their prior race, then no matter what at least four will fail to some degree.

In the Derby, when Ability meets Mr. Lucky, Ability goes 8 wide while Mr. Lucky splits horses on the way to victory. That's the thrill and excitement that surrounds the Derby.

Ferdinand, in post number one, was squeezed at the start back to last. Shoe patiently and uneventfully moved him into contention but behind a wall of horses nearing the top of the stretch. While thousands screamed "Get Him Thru" the Red Sea parted and Ferdinand went on to victory for the Shoe.

I'm not a big bounce guy unless it involves horses that ran hard off a long layoff and come back pretty quick. I'm sure there are some bad trips involved, like Ice Box. But I've just seen it too many times where they don't run well, not just don't win, to jump on those kind. I suspect many of them are just horses that won on the front and/or against weak competition. Horses generally run fastest when they get easy trips. There aren't many easy trips in the Derby.

[SecretAgentMan]

I definitely don't see any freakish horses like War Emblem in this years derby. That derby it was a 1-2 wire to wire exacta.I remember all the hype of how much speed & front runners there was gonna be & no one wanted to burn themselves out, so they let War wire the field with slow fractions, a very boring derby!

[Valuist]

I definitely don't see any freakish horses like War Emblem in this years derby. That derby it was a 1-2 wire to wire exacta.I remember all the hype of how much speed & front runners there was gonna be & no one wanted to burn themselves out, so they let War wire the field with slow fractions, a very boring derby!

Was just looking at the chart of that Derby. I don't think there were any greats behind War Emblem. Proud Citizen and Perfect Drift rounded out the tri. Harlan's Holiday was the beaten favorite and Medaglia d'oro was in that field.

Interesting what riders were in that Derby. Obviously Bailey was in there, but Pincay, Delahoussaye and McCarron were all still riding. I thought they were all retired by 2002. Day would've ridden Buddha, but he scratched. Chavez and Rene Douglas also had mounts in the race. Rene probably would still be riding if not for his accident 5 years ago.

[Exotic1]

Very few horses that "explode" to a big new top in the race prior to the Derby back it up.

Thanks for all the work, Cj. I think I will have to extend my Timeform subscription.

With regards to the Derby fig, historically would the winner need to produce a new "top" compared to their preps or would the winning fig match something on the horse's resume? I guess that would somewhat depend on the competition of the Derby entrants.

One more thing, what was it about the Wood that you found exceptional, particular segments, final time, strength of field?

[JustRalph]

Sounds right on the first two, but I disagreed strongly with that 98 in WE's allowance race. Way back in the day I posted here how I liked him in the Illinios Derby because of that, and he beat Repent easily.

Oh yes.....fond memories......

Still one of my fav horses of all time.

I don't think Baffert did much at all. In fact I believe he's said that all he did was "not screw him up"

[Speed Figure]

I couldn't see how the Beyer number was so low for that race. My numbers had his race before the Ill derby as very strong. If a horse has run a new top that he's never run before and it's 10 + points higher then it's race last race then I'll say it may bounce if it's a low price.

[cj]

Thanks for all the work, Cj. I think I will have to extend my Timeform subscription.

With regards to the Derby fig, historically would the winner need to produce a new "top" compared to their preps or would the winning fig match something on the horse's resume? I guess that would somewhat depend on the competition of the Derby entrants.

One more thing, what was it about the Wood that you found exceptional, particular segments, final time, strength of field?

I posted a chart earlier with what the winners for the last 10 years had run in the race prior, there lifetime top, and the Derby figure...that should help with the first one.

The Wood was just a fast race all around, early, middle, and late. Of course, that takes into account the surface it was run on.