A Final Version

[limit2]

What can I offer as a final version for success at the racetrack. Perhaps nothing. Perhaps after 44 years and over 300,000 iterations of a proposed system some insights.......A set of 11 rules as: (1) Play up to 4 races a day taken from up to 3 racetracks.......(2) Eliminate races w scratches....(3) Eliminate Maiden races......(4) Eliminate races w less than 7 entries.....(5) Eliminate races w 7/8 entries if the lowest ML is less than 5:2.....(6) Gain expertise on the Win slot before venturing into exotics.....(7) Build a portfolio that breaks down into: 55%,9%,20%,9% and 7% for Win, Round Robin, Exacta, Trifecta and Supers respectively (a $3,240 portfolio for up to $129.60 daily wagering)........(8) Use 2 15:1-6:1 ML horses in a downward direction which provides for 50% plus premiums........(9) Give favor to potent overlays by wagering more on them......(10) Increase wagers after monthly success.... (11) Monitor progress w records as: Daily logs, Matching expected versus actual results, Ongoing hit ratio, Ongoing $2 Win mutual and Ongoing ROI.

[lamboguy]

good for you, keep on winning and keep up the good work

[DeltaLover]

What can I offer as a final version for success at the racetrack. Perhaps nothing. Perhaps after 44 years and over 300,000 iterations of a proposed system some insights.......A set of 11 rules as: (1) Play up to 4 races a day taken from up to 3 racetracks.......(2) Eliminate races w scratches....(3) Eliminate Maiden races......(4) Eliminate races w less than 7 entries.....(5) Eliminate races w 7/8 entries if the lowest ML is less than 5:2.....(6) Gain expertise on the Win slot before venturing into exotics.....(7) Build a portfolio that breaks down into: 55%,9%,20%,9% and 7% for Win, Round Robin, Exacta, Trifecta and Supers respectively (a $3,240 portfolio for up to $129.60 daily wagering)........(8) Use 2 15:1-6:1 ML horses in a downward direction which provides for 50% plus premiums........(9) Give favor to potent overlays by wagering more on them......(10) Increase wagers after monthly success.... (11) Monitor progress w records as: Daily logs, Matching expected versus actual results, Ongoing hit ratio, Ongoing $2 Win mutual and Ongoing ROI.


If these rules work for you keep on following them.

More than this I have to say that generic rules like play up to 4 races a day, eliminate races with scratches or maiden etc are completely artificial and unless you can come up with some data to support them they should be viewed more as a fallacy rather than anything else.

The complexity of the game requires an in depth understanding of it going far beyond what you are presenting here. What is the most important component for the creation of a successful horse gambler, is the development of a meta-handicapping process to allow for flexibility and adaptability to any possible racing event rather than the reliance to rigid rules that all of them are candidates for exceptional activity.

[limit2]

It is wonderful that race fans have different views on Thoroughbred Racing. I have read your response and differ on a few points. Let me explain: No matter how you do it the field has to be reduced to manageable levels, i.e. No scratches, no Maidens, 4 races/da, etc. And it is done quickly. The game is not that complex if you consider the formula: hit ratio x average ongoing $2 win mutual = FP. if FP=2.8 or better you are home free. No requirement for how you do it. No computer simulations or algorithms, Beyer Speed Figures, trip handicapping, etc. ...just old-fashioned selections (maybe 2 per race). The rules should be rigid so that the opportunity to be consistent is available and predictability is possible. Thus we approach investment and overcome gambling. Take the last 10 days at PA and Turf Paradise and apply my rules. Data: 25x2=50 tickets, 5 hits, average $2 mutual= $48.98and ROI > 100%.

[thaskalos]

What can I offer as a final version for success at the racetrack. Perhaps nothing. Perhaps after 44 years and over 300,000 iterations of a proposed system some insights.......A set of 11 rules as: (1) Play up to 4 races a day taken from up to 3 racetracks.......(2) Eliminate races w scratches....(3) Eliminate Maiden races......(4) Eliminate races w less than 7 entries.....(5) Eliminate races w 7/8 entries if the lowest ML is less than 5:2.....(6) Gain expertise on the Win slot before venturing into exotics.....(7) Build a portfolio that breaks down into: 55%,9%,20%,9% and 7% for Win, Round Robin, Exacta, Trifecta and Supers respectively (a $3,240 portfolio for up to $129.60 daily wagering)........(8) Use 2 15:1-6:1 ML horses in a downward direction which provides for 50% plus premiums........(9) Give favor to potent overlays by wagering more on them......(10) Increase wagers after monthly success.... (11) Monitor progress w records as: Daily logs, Matching expected versus actual results, Ongoing hit ratio, Ongoing $2 Win mutual and Ongoing ROI.

I don't quite understand what you are saying in rule #8...nor am I clear on how you arrive at a final selection. I will say that you seem to have a lot more faith in the ML than I do...

[limit2]

I am a longshot player who believes that over a duration of 2 months I can average from $2 win wagers a mutual of $32. Rule # 8 helps me to do that. Only ML odds of 15:1, 12:1, 10:1, 8:1 and 6:1 are acceptable for play. I need them to go to post at a 50% premium or better. Starting at 15:1 and going downward I look for that to be the case and select the 2 most potent overlays. In races with 11-12 entries I will accept 3 selections. I am OK with someone's line since the goal I seek is achieved.

[BetHorses!]

.(2) Eliminate races w scratches...

Any scratch or just late scratches..?

[limit2]

The scratches I speak of are those after the program is set.

[Fastracehorse]

The scratches I speak of are those after the program is set.

:confused:

they are my favourite

fffastt

[limit2]

I am not 100 % against betting on Maiden races. However, to reduce race population I would rather a claimer with win experience.

[BetHorses!]

The scratches I speak of are those after the program is set.


Curious what the reason is for this rule?

[limit2]

The Rule. Simple. After program scratches....do the remaining odds possess the original ML odds?

[kingfin66]

I always appreciate when people share their methods, especially when they go against the norm. A couple of questions.

1. Is it 4 races from all three tracks, or a max of 4 races per track?

2. Why the limit on races? I know that you had indicated to make things manageable, but what if I would manage more tracks?

3. You are living in the deep end of the pool. High mutuels, but low hits rates. How is this working for you?

4. Have you experimented with some other separation/handicapping factor to distinguish the better of the high ML horses?

Again, thank you for sharing!

[JoeLong]

The Rule. Simple. After program scratches....do the remaining odds possess the original ML odds?

Let me see if I understand... if you were able to calculate your own odds line the scratch rule wouldn't be necessary, is that right?

[limit2]

I consider it a win when I share my ideas on Thoroughbred Racing, especially when they are appreciated. Thank you for accepting them. The answer to 1........4 total races from 2-3 racetracks. The answer to 2.......If more than 3 racetracks are considered then more than 4 acceptable races are produced and a 1 win day becomes unprofitable. The answer to 3........ Great! As long as the operator is in focus and adheres to the rules of play, use money management strategies and is the keeper of records. The answer to 4...... Handicapping from past performances as in Dan Geer's book, "Pro-rated Longshots" we are alerted that his yearly workout produced a ROI of 15% on an average $2 mutual of $26. His methods require more labor, purchase of the Racing Form and create numerous selections. I seek and return a 30-40% on a $2 average mutual of $32.

[limit2]

The main reason for not using races with program scratches is that the remaining ML odds become unreliable.

[JJMartin]

What can I offer as a final version for success at the racetrack. Perhaps nothing. Perhaps after 44 years and over 300,000 iterations of a proposed system some insights.......A set of 11 rules as: (1) Play up to 4 races a day taken from up to 3 racetracks.......(2) Eliminate races w scratches....(3) Eliminate Maiden races......(4) Eliminate races w less than 7 entries.....(5) Eliminate races w 7/8 entries if the lowest ML is less than 5:2.....(6) Gain expertise on the Win slot before venturing into exotics.....(7) Build a portfolio that breaks down into: 55%,9%,20%,9% and 7% for Win, Round Robin, Exacta, Trifecta and Supers respectively (a $3,240 portfolio for up to $129.60 daily wagering)........(8) Use 2 15:1-6:1 ML horses in a downward direction which provides for 50% plus premiums........(9) Give favor to potent overlays by wagering more on them......(10) Increase wagers after monthly success.... (11) Monitor progress w records as: Daily logs, Matching expected versus actual results, Ongoing hit ratio, Ongoing $2 Win mutual and Ongoing ROI.

All excellent suggestions, I have a lot of similar parameters myself

[Red Knave]

The main reason for not using races with program scratches is that the remaining ML odds become unreliable.
Have you (or has anyone) tested this after recalculating the M/L after scratches?
It seems like it would be fairly easy.

[limit2]

I have not read of anyone recalculating program ML odds after scratches. In addition to the problem of uncertain odds we need a way to discard races. I choose removal of races with scratches.

[TexasDolly]

Limit2, Does the minimum ML of 2.5 only apply to those races with 7 or 8 entries ? As i remember in your original outline to those with 7 or 8 and the races with 9 up required a ML of 3/1.
Thank you,
TD

[limit2]

Only 7/8 entry races have that requirement. The reason I went to that requirement is the preponderance of races of that size where the favorite wins. Add that with larger fields I could hope blocking of the favorite especially if he is not a front runner.

[TexasDolly]

Thanks L2. Sounds reasonable.
TD

[Light]

What can I offer as a final version for success at the racetrack. Perhaps nothing. Perhaps after 44 years and over 300,000 iterations of a proposed system some insights.......A set of 11 rules as: (1) Play up to 4 races a day taken from up to 3 racetracks.......(2) Eliminate races w scratches....(3) Eliminate Maiden races......(4) Eliminate races w less than 7 entries.....(5) Eliminate races w 7/8 entries if the lowest ML is less than 5:2.....(6) Gain expertise on the Win slot before venturing into exotics.....(7) Build a portfolio that breaks down into: 55%,9%,20%,9% and 7% for Win, Round Robin, Exacta, Trifecta and Supers respectively (a $3,240 portfolio for up to $129.60 daily wagering)........(8) Use 2 15:1-6:1 ML horses in a downward direction which provides for 50% plus premiums........(9) Give favor to potent overlays by wagering more on them......(10) Increase wagers after monthly success.... (11) Monitor progress w records as: Daily logs, Matching expected versus actual results, Ongoing hit ratio, Ongoing $2 Win mutual and Ongoing ROI.

Can you give an example of a race where this method won today just so I can wrap my brain around it? I don't care if you redboard.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I like rule #6. I believe in rule #6. I just can't get that 55%.

[limit2]

It just so happens that I posted "My Story on PA Race 5". In this case the system is fine, but the operator failed. Data: No scratches......No maiden....7 horses went to the post......Lowest ML is 5:2.....The 10:1 and 8:1 are the only candidates. The operator was not alert and did not realize he should have played the candidates even they were not buys at 1 MTP. The 10:1 ML won at premium odds of 15:1.

[limit2]

When the turf enthusiast is ready to play portfolio style, i.e. different wager types in daily play, approximately 55% of capital should be relegated to the Win slot.

[fmolf]

For me the game would no longer be any fun if i were playing it from a set of rigid rules like these.There are many left brained handicappers who are successfully.Good luck to you in the future as you hopefully win and also continue to refine this system.

[AndyC]

When the turf enthusiast is ready to play portfolio style, i.e. different wager types in daily play, approximately 55% of capital should be relegated to the Win slot.


And this should be done because...?

[limit2]

The 55% of capital for the Win slot is done to assure that a winning day is possible with only a Win slot hit.

[Light]

It just so happens that I posted "My Story on PA Race 5". In this case the system is fine, but the operator failed. Data: No scratches......No maiden....7 horses went to the post......Lowest ML is 5:2.....The 10:1 and 8:1 are the only candidates. The operator was not alert and did not realize he should have played the candidates even they were not buys at 1 MTP. The 10:1 ML won at premium odds of 15:1.

I'm still trying to understand your system. I looked at the race above and see what you are saying. What is not clear in your rules is why the ML 10:1 and 8:1 were not plays initially and then what made them plays but too late for you to wager. Do they just have to be over their ML?

[limit2]

A 50% premium is required for me to consider it an overlay. 10:1 ML going to 15:1 at post time is such a case. But, in the PA 5 case at post time the contenders were not at acceptable odds. If not the contenders what then? I see 3 possibilities as: (1) No bets.....(2) Step out of the acceptable range of ML odds and take the 5:1 going to 8:1.......(3) or take the contenders at the lower odds. I made the wrong choice.

[limit2]

Thanks for your encouragement. For me there is a dual pleasure with Thoroughbred Racing. One (1) The watching of the race and (2) the numbers associated with it ( I am a number freak). Actuarial and Systems Assurance background. Pushing data through various schemes and algorithms is high on my list of pleasures. One has to admit that Thoroughbred Racing data is finite, but huge.

[Light]

Your system just hit the 5th at WO. #5 Aunt Els $26.30. Only qualifier in field. Correct?

[limit2]

That is exactly what is was going to post back to you. A real simple one to figure.

[kingfin66]

Your system just hit the 5th at WO. #5 Aunt Els $26.30. Only qualifier in field. Correct?

I think the :9: was also a qualifier; 20-1 to 40-1.

[limit2]

No! My range of ml odds only include 15:1-6:1.

[kingfin66]

Got it! Thanks.

[overthehill]

i think your strategy makes some sense. my only caveat would be that the ml guy has to be competent. sometimes they are sometimes they arent. I thought the ml guy had gp this winter has been terrible. the different ml guys seem to have different strengths. which needs to be evaluated as well. in general i would be very cautions playing a 15-1 ml unless i had previous experience that the trainer is competent, and not in a terrible slump

[Some_One]

i think your strategy makes some sense. my only caveat would be that the ml guy has to be competent. sometimes they are sometimes they arent. I thought the ml guy had gp this winter has been terrible. the different ml guys seem to have different strengths. which needs to be evaluated as well. in general i would be very cautions playing a 15-1 ml unless i had previous experience that the trainer is competent, and not in a terrible slump

I think you hit the logic of the system, that the m/l guy is better than the public at setting a odds line and I think that has been proven false enough times by now.

[Light]

These are the results I got today following the rules. Seven TB tracks today. No plays at EMD. Still have SA 9th and GG 8th for potential plays, but so far a tough day for this system despite one nice hit.


race # Track Horse # Return

1 crc 2 $0.00
1 crc 4 $0.00
3 crc 4 $0.00
3 crc 5 $0.00
6 Prm 2 $0.00
6 Prm 3 $0.00
9 Prm 2 $0.00
9 Prm 3 $0.00
5 GP 4 $0.00
5 GP 5 $0.00
7 GP 9 $0.00
5 WO 5 $26.30
6 GG 4 $0.00
6 GG 8 $0.00
6 SA 1 $0.00
6 SA 6 $0.00
7 SA 2 $0.00
7 SA 4 $0.00


Invest $38
Return $26.30
ROI -31%

[Light]

Starting at 15:1 and going downward I look for that to be the case and select the 2 most potent overlays. In races with 11-12 entries I will accept 3 selections. I am OK with someone's line since the goal I seek is achieved.

In GG's 8th, the winner was a 6:1 ML who went off at 9:1. This fits your rule for 50% overlays as a bet. However the rule you have above negates this win because there were 2 other horses who were 50% overlays and were higher odds.According to your rules, one should bet only 2 horses in fields of 10 or less (which this was) and start with the longer shot horses. So the #3 would have been tossed as a bet.

[kingfin66]

In GG's 8th, the winner was a 6:1 ML who went off at 9:1. This fits your rule for 50% overlays as a bet. However the rule you have above negates this win because there were 3 other horses who were 50% overlays and were higher odds.According to your rules, one should bet only 2 horses in fields of 10 or less (which this was) and start with the longer shot horses. So the #3 would have been tossed as a bet.

This situation is why I inquired about having some type of handicapping factor to use to separate horses rather than just working top to bottom on ML odds.

[Light]

I actually handicapped that race before it ran and really liked the #3 and thought she was a true overlay. But there are a lot of races where I'm not that smart. It is a tough call whether to handicap to separate system qualifiers or do it mechanically because both ways probably work and don't work.

[Maximillion]

I know the morning line can often be bad at some tracks,but I think there could be some merit in "fading",or "hiding",or whatever word you want to use, on the top 2 or three ML favorites.

As far as basing an entire handicapping/betting approach on one persons (often bad) opinion of a race,not sure I would wanna go there....but if it works more power to you.

[limit2]

Limit the number of racetracks to 2-3 and the number of races to 4. Today my choices of tracks were GP and WO. Five (5) tickets at $2 each =$10. Payoff = $26.30. Profit = $16.30.

[limit2]

Actually you can separate the contenders with a little bit more surgery by looking at the potency of the post time odds. Break down into 3 categories as 50%, 100% and 200% premiums. Let us use as an illustration a 6:1 and a 15:1 ML. 6:1 goes to 12:1 and 15:1 goes to 25:1. The choice here is the 6:1 since it doubled and the 15:1 did not.

[Light]

Aren't you changing your own rules now with your above statement ^^^^. I'm not knocking you for it. I think it does need tweaking and certainly is not for the faint of heart because any way you slice it, the hit rate will be way too low for most to take. Certainly for me. I do like it's contrarian approach, because mostly we are told to "follow the money".

The reason I was interested in your system is because back in the day, one system that was huge with me for awhile was the opposite of your system.Take 6:1 and up and focus on horses getting bet down from their ML. It definitely had it moments and I would sometimes do exacta boxes with multiple qualifiers in the same race and get nice scores. It had more of a hit rate than yours. Smaller payouts, but still usually double digits. The problem I see in both methods is that there is too much left to the wind and not enough control by the handicapper. Of course when the handicapper tries to take control he may not fare much better if he uses general handicapping principles.

I think the solution is to get your system qualifiers and then apply those qualifiers to an angle or angles you know has a positive ROI. You may end up tossing winners here and there, but in the end you will not be betting random losers with no shot and should be in the black if your final filter is a good one.