Elnadim's 1st ever starter - Keeneland Race 2 Wednesday

[backandlay]

Well I've been waiting for this for quiet a while now. July Cup winner in The Uk and track record holder from the same race Elnadim has his 1st starter ever worldwide today at Keeneland in a Mdn50K event at Keeneland

Elnadim is a son of Danzig from Elle Suele (a daughter of the famed brodmare producer Fall Aspen). I think Elnadim is going to be one of the hot sires to follow over the following years. Here is my write up of the horses chance that is going around today. Keep a very close eye on his stock.

Keeneland 1.45 R2 No2 Wild As Elle - A race full of 2yo 1st starter for this 4 1/2 furlong dash in Mdn50K company and have decided to lean towards Wild As Elle here. Very well bred by Sire: Elnadim (Danzig) $11,459 service fee Dam: Wild Jewel (Wild Again). Elnadim is the 1st season sire son of Danzig who won The July Cup Group 1, UK's premier sprint over 6 furlongs in track record time at Newmarket on turf. Himself by Elle Suele who is a daughter of the famed producer Fall Aspen. Elnadim is from the same family as Fort Wood, Bianconi, Dubai Millenium, Hamas amongst other very notable sires and dams. Wild As Elle worked sensationally at only public appearance on 09Apr CD 4f ft :47 4/5 Bg 2/40 and trainer carries decent percentages across 3 spheres of influence inc 1st time str ( 177 7% -1.11 ) Debut MdnSpWt ( 132 7% -1.13 ) Maiden Sp Wt ( 416 13% -0.88 ). Also get a Hot Jockey in last 7 days ( 19 7- 0- 3) and is well drawn to get a very good trip in transit on pace from the 2 alley. Definitely worth the punt for mine with sire being unexposed at this stage with a lot of hidden upside in this field at good value pre post.

[linrom1]

KEESEPT 2003 $62k sale. I guess it wasn't thought of very well.

[Show Me the Wire]

backandlay:

From your post I am ssuming your are backing and not laying off on the horse on a betting exchange. If I went to a betting exchange, unfamiliar territory for us North American types, would you predict I would get good odds backing this particular horse, especially, with your information? Or do you think his odds will be lower than the keeneland pools, based on your information?

Based on your post I will take a good look at the horse today.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

perception is reality

[backandlay]

A few factors to consider.

It was a champion in The Uk so considering most exchanges are frequented by a high percentage of UK merchants it is likely the upside associated could be slightly exposed there.

Also remember elnadim has been off the scene for some timwe now and a lot of people would have forgotten the efforts he produced at Newmarket back in 97. That year he earnt the classification of Joint top of the 1997 3yo International classifications (Sprint). The track was a rock hard firm surface which makes me think his offsrping will be suited to North American racing.

Betting exchanges like Betfair for instance continually offer USA market at approx 102-103% at 5 minutes to post. I think he is 7/2PP on most morning lines in a field of 9. If you arent confident of him winning still represents excellent value to run 1,2 or 3 by backing for the place / show paying on 1st 3 past the wire in this instance. You should achieve odds of 6/4 and should be able to get $300-$500 USd on it for yourself through Betfair I would think.

It could get to 9/2 or 5/1 for the win if the smarties dont catch on. Even better prices if it drifts on the tote pools in The USA.

I purchased a yearling by him in Australia for $20K. The 1st or 2nd ever sold publicly at yearling sales in The Southern Hemisphere. It was a very much confirmation correct filly. Will be a precocious 2yo type ready for the start of the season that should also make very good broodmare potential down the track. His stock are averaging $60 to $70K in the Southern Hemisphere.

I love the Fall aspen family. One of her sons Fort Wood is the sire of up and coming sire in your neck of the woods Horse Chestnut from South Africa. Elle Suele was a 1/2 to Fort Wood, Fort Wood is by Northern Dancer and stands in South Africa and has been a leading sire there for some time whilst. Elle Suele is by Exclusive Native.

Danzig has so far produced 5 horses to win The July Cup and Elnadim was the best of them. He from memory went amiss at the end of his 3yo year start of his 4yo year with bad legs. Then reappeared in your neck of the woods running as a 6yo once or twice and finishing 3rd or 2nd at Group 2 level. The USA never saw the best of Elnadim as a race horse. Connections obviously did not want to do further damage to his stud value after these few USA starts so he was sent straight to stud. He is also a brother to good producer Ashraakat and half brother to Mehtaaf. This family is just littered with good influences and he is sure to be the best for mine of all of them.

Someone has mentioned that this one going around today only went for $60K odd through the sales. His service fee is only $11K so not a bad return for the breeders, especially for a sire that hasnt had his upside fully exposed yet.

I guess we will have to wait and see, but just keep a close eye on his stock this year in the 2yo races.

I know one thing, the filly I bought has broken in a treat and the breaker had very good wraps on her.

[Show Me the Wire]

I see Pat Day accepted the mount, good sign the connections like the horse, not so sure it is a good sign they want to win first time out, especially with Mc Peek training.

backandlay:

I posted this response prior to seeing your last post. Thank you for sharing your analysis. BTW I agree with you on the purchase price.


I think our felow poster, Nimrom would rather back DWL's horse, Paragon Queen, that DWL paid $450K with a sire fee of only $6k. Of course $450k is not much to the Lewis'.

Personally, I would consider Glenney's homebred..

After seeing your post i understand why you are anxious to see one of the sire's runners debuting. Good luck to you.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

perception is reality

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

[Show Me the Wire]

Backandlay:

Good call and thanks for the heads up on the new sire.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

pereption is reality

[backandlay]

Show me the wire,

He got the cash pretty comfortably at the end of the day, ran good time and kicked away in the stretch. I think this will turn out not a bad form race.

Might be worthwhile on your behalf going to Brisnet.com and using their free stallion feature to be updated via email when any of his others appear this season.

Or try my site if you like because I will be keeping a very close eye on them throughout the future before the upside of his prodgeny are exposed. I will be advising clients to back a fair few of these when suited.

I also noticed Brisnert have put a short story in their bloodstock journal noting he has got his 1st winner.