An idea regarding Takeouts.

[Poindexter]

The big problem facing racing today is that horseplayers know the takeout needs to be lower, but racetracks are unwilling to risk lowering the takeout because they are scared that the handle will not increase nearly enough to pay for the lost revenues of reducing the takeout. Now the thought just hit me, what if a racetrack (I will refer to it as abc downs) had an average win (I actually would combine wps and subtract negative pools) pool on a certain day of the week of $500,000. We will make $500,000 our base number (this base number would change based on the day of the week obviously). What if ABC Downs agreed to lower the takeout .1 % for every 2% in extra money bet. Now this example ignores the complexities of state taxes and ADW’s, but for the sake of this argument, let’s assume that the problems that they create can be worked out. So ABC Downs currently has a takeout of 16%. Below is a chart of what would happen as more money was bet and takeout was reduced. The first number is how much is bet, the 2nd number is the revised takeout for that bet amount and the 3rd number is the revenue that would be generated at that handle. Note as the amount bet goes up, the takeout percentage goes down, but more importantly the tracks revenue increases. My question is would this not be a viable way to get racetracks to agree to lower take(conditionally), but of course the more important question is would bettors support a track that agreed to do so and start betting more to drive up the handle and reduce the takeout? In other words the track encourages horseplayers to bet more collectively by rewarding them collectively with a lower takeout. Look at the numbers. Bettors bet double their average, they knock their takeout from 16% to 12.5%, and the track ends up with about 55% additional revenue. I have no idea how this would be done with the current ADW system, nonetheless, I think this type of strategy is probably the only way to grow the sport and get rid of this stalemate between bettors and the racing industry.

$500,000.00 16.00% $80,000.00
$510,000.00 15.9000% $81,090.00
$520,200.00 15.8000% $82,191.60
$530,604.00 15.7000% $83,304.83
$541,216.08 15.6000% $84,429.71
$552,040.40 15.5000% $85,566.26
$563,081.21 15.4000% $86,714.51
$574,342.83 15.3000% $87,874.45
$585,829.69 15.2000% $89,046.11
$597,546.28 15.1000% $90,229.49
$609,497.21 15.0000% $91,424.58
$621,687.15 14.9000% $92,631.39
$634,120.90 14.8000% $93,849.89
$646,803.32 14.7000% $95,080.09
$659,739.38 14.6000% $96,321.95
$672,934.17 14.5000% $97,575.45
$686,392.85 14.4000% $98,840.57
$700,120.71 14.3000% $100,117.26
$714,123.12 14.2000% $101,405.48
$728,405.59 14.1000% $102,705.19
$742,973.70 14.0000% $104,016.32
$757,833.17 13.9000% $105,338.81
$772,989.84 13.8000% $106,672.60
$788,449.63 13.7000% $108,017.60
$804,218.62 13.6000% $109,373.73
$820,303.00 13.5000% $110,740.90
$836,709.06 13.4000% $112,119.01
$853,443.24 13.3000% $113,507.95
$870,512.10 13.2000% $114,907.60
$887,922.35 13.1000% $116,317.83
$905,680.79 13.0000% $117,738.50
$923,794.41 12.9000% $119,169.48
$942,270.30 12.8000% $120,610.60
$961,115.70 12.7000% $122,061.69
$980,338.02 12.6000% $123,522.59
$999,944.78 12.5000% $124,993.10
$1,019,943.67 12.4000% $126,473.02
$1,040,342.55 12.3000% $127,962.13
$1,061,149.40 12.2000% $129,460.23
$1,082,372.38 12.1000% $130,967.06
$1,104,019.83 12.0000% $132,482.38
$1,126,100.23 11.9000% $134,005.93
$1,148,622.23 11.8000% $135,537.42
$1,171,594.68 11.7000% $137,076.58
$1,195,026.57 11.6000% $138,623.08
$1,218,927.10 11.5000% $140,176.62
$1,243,305.64 11.4000% $141,736.84
$1,268,171.76 11.3000% $143,303.41
$1,293,535.19 11.2000% $144,875.94
$1,319,405.90 11.1000% $146,454.05
$1,345,794.01 11.0000% $148,037.34
$1,372,709.89 10.9000% $149,625.38
$1,400,164.09 10.8000% $151,217.72
$1,428,167.37 10.7000% $152,813.91
$1,456,730.72 10.6000% $154,413.46
$1,485,865.34 10.5000% $156,015.86
$1,515,582.64 10.4000% $157,620.59
$1,545,894.30 10.3000% $159,227.11
$1,576,812.18 10.2000% $160,834.84
$1,608,348.43 10.1000% $162,443.19
$1,640,515.39 10.0000% $164,051.54
$1,673,325.70 9.9000% $165,659.24
$1,706,792.22 9.8000% $167,265.64
$1,740,928.06 9.7000% $168,870.02
$1,775,746.62 9.6000% $170,471.68
$1,811,261.55 9.5000% $172,069.85
$1,847,486.79 9.4000% $173,663.76
$1,884,436.52 9.3000% $175,252.60
$1,922,125.25 9.2000% $176,835.52
$1,960,567.76 9.1000% $178,411.67
$1,999,779.11 9.0000% $179,980.12
$2,039,774.69 8.9000% $181,539.95
$2,080,570.19 8.8000% $183,090.18
$2,122,181.59 8.7000% $184,629.80
$2,164,625.22 8.6000% $186,157.77
$2,207,917.73 8.5000% $187,673.01
$2,252,076.08 8.4000% $189,174.39
$2,297,117.60 8.3000% $190,660.76
$2,343,059.96 8.2000% $192,130.92
$2,389,921.15 8.1000% $193,583.61
$2,437,719.58 8.0000% $195,017.57
$2,486,473.97 7.9000% $196,431.44
$2,536,203.45 7.8000% $197,823.87
$2,586,927.52 7.7000% $199,193.42
$2,638,666.07 7.6000% $200,538.62
$2,691,439.39 7.5000% $201,857.95
$2,745,268.18 7.4000% $203,149.85
$2,800,173.54 7.3000% $204,412.67
$2,856,177.01 7.2000% $205,644.74
$2,913,300.55 7.1000% $206,844.34
$2,971,566.56 7.0000% $208,009.66
$3,030,997.89 6.9000% $209,138.85
$3,091,617.85 6.8000% $210,230.01
$3,153,450.21 6.7000% $211,281.16
$3,216,519.21 6.6000% $212,290.27
$3,280,849.60 6.5000% $213,255.22
$3,346,466.59 6.4000% $214,173.86
$3,413,395.92 6.3000% $215,043.94
$3,481,663.84 6.2000% $215,863.16
$3,551,297.12 6.1000% $216,629.12
$3,622,323.06 6.0000% $217,339.38

[Seabiscuit@AR]

Good idea Poindexter

It looks fair to the players and fair to the track

Churchill Downs is able to raise takeout because turnover has fallen below a certain minimum threshold. Working out an approach that is fair for all the participants in the game is important and this looks a good basic approach

[stuball]

Effective immediately I am going to continue to download all
files but when it comes time to load tracks for calculating the
races all CDI properties will not be included in my calculate races.
this is shameful how long are we going to keep betting into this
nonsense...? Arlington-Churchill-Calder-Fairgrounds Let's see if we can negatively impact their results.................Please join those of us that are going to fight back...

Stuball :mad:

[lamboguy]

the takeout now is lower than it ever has been with rebates. example: penn national w-p-s 17% rebate 9% effective takeout 8%, example ASD w-p-s 19% takeout, rebate 12% effective takeout 7%, example Mountaineer w-p-w 17.3% rebate 10%, effective takeout 7.3%.

those are all great takeout rates for players.

when one goes to the race track there is hardly any rebate, but it does cost the track money for you to walk through the door. the better tracks have higher signal and host fees and therefore you are paying more to play those tracks. but they can charge those rates and still get more business than the smaller tracks.

my conclusion is that takeout is not the problem that racing has today, its been solved by rebates. the rates that players pay in North America is very similar to Hong Kong, and in the far east where they are doing about $150 million a night in handle into their mutuel pools and they also have bookmakers that book their racing where the money usually doesn't go pack to the pools.