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View Full Version : 4/12 Keeneland thoughts...switching back to BRIS for one day


letswastemoney
04-12-2014, 03:01 AM
I must be pretty sick to try this again after a so-so attempt yesterday.

My old method was to pick the horse with the highest LP figure on BRIS. I like TimeformUS better, but let's try this old method for one day.

I'm not going to make it through every race.
________

Race 2

BRIS PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=KEE&race=2&param1=302100&param2=552&param3=828)

1) Anna Pavlova (8/1) - Form is inconsistent. But, she owns a maiden special weight win on turf at Fair Grounds, while she's disappointed in a couple of Churchill and Turfway starts. The Turfway efforts aren't too bad.

2) Core Destination (6/1) - There is a good polytrack effort on record. When this filly started out though, I always thought she'd make a decent dirt filly because of how much she improved in her second start when switching surface. Tough to read.

3) Sandcastle (6/1) - A lot of turf efforts. No dirt ones. At least, no panicky drop into the claiming ranks. Lanerie is 0 for 21 for the meet according to BRIS.

4) Ultimate Shopper (8/5) - Two good dirt efforts. Horses normally excel on only one surface right? Watch and see for now.

5) Good So Far (4/1) - Invader from France, with some American breeding (Empire Maker). Christoph Clement is good with these.

6) Tap Twenty One (4/1) - Cross out the dirt starts. Solid synthetic record, as she can boast being 2-1-1-0 on the fake stuff. Good late pace figures too, which are important at this racetrack.

7) Keri this Lori (30/1) - Just outclassed.

8) Brief Reign (20/1) - Some good efforts, including ones at Turfway. Jockey is 0 for 26.
________

Selection: Good So Far

Next best: Tap Twenty One, Anna Pavola

Consider underneath: Sandcastle

letswastemoney
04-12-2014, 03:28 AM
Race 3

BRIS PPs (http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=KEE&race=3&param1=453150&param2=828&param3=828)

1) Twang (2/1) - Stall fares well with dirt to synthetic runners, but this one is a mystery. Poor effort in the Saratoga Special can probably be forgiven.

2) Ghostly Wonder (8/1) - Nice win at Arlington Park. Just watch and see for now.

3) Augusta Road (7/2) - Nice win at Turfway. Steps up here.

4) Cash Conversation (8/1) - Low speed figures are meaningless since they came last summer with old trainer, Chad Brown. Picks up Lezcano.

5) Manaus (10/1) - Couldn't take an advantage of a perfect situation for closers against Big Bazinga and more. Owns nice win at Kentucky Downs.

6) Green Mask (3/1) - Switches to Clement as the trainer. Same ride...The polytrack efforts are solid enough.

7) Mendota (10/1) - So-so synthetic starts, including a win. Could improve.

8 Forfeight (10/1) - No dirt or synthetic form. Lost in a maiden claimer to start career. Tough Call.
________

Selection: Cash Conversation

Next best: Manuas, Green Mask, Mendota

Consider underneath: Forfeight

letswastemoney
04-12-2014, 11:23 AM
I fell asleep last night, and am not sure I wrote a coherent Race 3 analysis. Here is Race 4.

Race 4

:1: Purrfect Ride (6/1) - At least she's been competing at Gulfstream, even if the results look so-so. Retains Lezcano.

:2: Stellaris (9/2) - Only a dirt start at Fair Grounds. If using a dirt start to handicap a synthetic race, I guess she did it the right way, making her best move towards the end.

:3: Jazzy Genius (15/1) - Taking horses that have lost at the maiden claiming level at the maiden special weight level is normally a bad idea.

:4: Partyinslowmotion (6/1) - Put this Bernardini filly back on dirt.

:5: Lady Margarita (20/1) - The dam Capside Lady was a good one, but there's no evidence of the same talent from her foals yet.

:6: Terrific Treasure (12/1) - Her dam Treasure Trail never amounted to much, but that mare is also a half to Zenyatta. Christophe Clemente / Napravnik equal good connections and price is right.

:7: Twenty in One (6/1) - Invasor filly gets blinkers. That sire's progeny normally runs better on dirt, but this one seems to run like a polytrack horse with the best pace figure coming late.

:8: Trawee (4/1) - Cross out the dirt start. The polytrack effort over this track is a good one and the stretch out shouldn't be a problem.

:9: Gananoque (12/1) - Bernardini filly was average on Woodbine polytrack. That cannot be a good sign for a tougher Keeneland race.

:10: Ventoux (10/1) - The turf efforts at Tampa Bay are only okay. Note, she owns a high late pace figure of 91 in the last one. Maybe lasix helps.

:11: Crissy Field (5/1) - The three turf efforts and polytrack effort look solid. She likes to race up front, which might hurt on this speed killing racetrack, that is, if you're used to seeing good speed horses hold and stick like on dirt. We'll see.
________

Selection: Trawee

Next best: Purrfect Ride, Terrific Treasure, Ventoux

Consider underneath: Stellaris, Lady Margarita, Twenty in One

letswastemoney
04-12-2014, 02:00 PM
I ran out of time to do every race.

In Race 5, :1: Rare and :4: Indian Guide look good. They both have the second highest BRIS LP figure.

letswastemoney
04-12-2014, 02:47 PM
I ran out of time to do every race.

In Race 5, :1: Rare and :4: Indian Guide look good. They both have the second highest BRIS LP figure. McPeek won again! damn.

In Race 6...doesn't :3: Hoochie Poochie (currently 8/1) deserve a look for finish third against Poker Player at Kentucky Downs? Both Poker Player and the second place horse returned to win.

letswastemoney
04-12-2014, 03:49 PM
In Race 10, the Jenny Wiley, the only two horses to have finished in front of Discreet Marq since last summer are Alterite and Egg Drop. Isn't that an impressive list?

I like :8: Discreet Marq to win.