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SecretAgentMan
04-11-2014, 03:28 PM
I know there are a lot of different trends & angles that involve this race every year......if you have any to add, please do.


Last 10 years, the derby horse has been won by a Kentucky bred horse.......

20 of past 21 derby winners have raced 2 to 4 times from Jan 1st up to the derby.......

No horse has won the derby if unraced as a 2 year old since 1882.......

Every derby winner last 10 years has raced within 45 days before racing in the derby.......

9 of last 10 derby winners have won a graded stakes race at least once.......

13 out of last 14 derby winners have raced 4 to 8 times in their career entering the derby......


Please add any that you are willing to share.........

bgbootha
04-11-2014, 04:58 PM
No horse has won the derby if unraced as a 2 year old since 1882.......

Please add any that you are willing to share.........

There is also something (and I am at work and can't look up the specifics) about a horse that didn't WIN as a 2 year old. it isn't just racing at 2, but some heavy numbers about winning at two.

SecretAgentMan
04-11-2014, 05:39 PM
There is also something (and I am at work and can't look up the specifics) about a horse that didn't WIN as a 2 year old. it isn't just racing at 2, but some heavy numbers about winning at two.


Found one........


9 of last 10 derby winners won at least one race as a 2 year old of 7 furlongs or longer

horses4courses
04-11-2014, 07:10 PM
I find trends and angles in horse racing are, by and large, overrated.
In the KY Derby, I would say that is definitely the case.

As soon as one is shot down, another one springs up like a mushroom stool.

I'll say this with emphasis, though.
Please don't let my opinion stop anyone from sending $ in on their trend of choice ;)

Rex Phinney
04-11-2014, 07:41 PM
I find trends and angles in horse racing are, by and large, overrated.
In the KY Derby, I would say that is definitely the case.

As soon as one is shot down, another one springs up like a mushroom stool.

I'll say this with emphasis, though.
Please don't let my opinion stop anyone from sending $ in on their trend of choice ;)

Agreed on all counts

sbcaris
04-12-2014, 09:55 AM
I disagree: I have been using certain angles for all three legs of the Triple Crown and some of them have been very lucrative. For example, horses who carry Buckpasser in the X passing position and have raced a fast final 3/8 of a 9 furlong prep race have won much more than their expected share of Derbies, Preaknesses and Belmonts and many of these winners paid off at very solid prices: Super Saver 18 dollars, Summer Bird in Belmont around 12-1 and Drosselmeyer in the Belmont around 12 -1 etch

In fact, wagering only on the above types gets a high ROI in all three legs of the Triple Crown. (as found in my book-Analyzing the Triple Crown).

elhelmete
04-12-2014, 03:53 PM
I know there are a lot of different trends & angles that involve this race every year......if you have any to add, please do..

I looked at these one by one and here's my take


Last 10 years, the derby horse has been won by a Kentucky bred horse........

Do they win at a greater rate than in other graded/similar races, or do KY breds, which greatly outnumber other statebreds anyway, just win lots of races nationwide?

20 of past 21 derby winners have raced 2 to 4 times from Jan 1st up to the derby........

I'd say most if not essentially all active 3YO race 2-4 times before May.

9 of last 10 derby winners have won a graded stakes race at least once........

Given the kinds of horses aimed for the Derby, this seems self evident.

13 out of last 14 derby winners have raced 4 to 8 times in their career entering the derby......

I'd say this is true of most actively-racing 3yos.

keithw84
04-12-2014, 07:54 PM
In a different thread, someone suggested that a horse could be too seasoned going into the Derby - too many starts, started career too early at age 2, etc. Any credence to that idea?

SecretAgentMan
04-12-2014, 08:10 PM
In a different thread, someone suggested that a horse could be too seasoned going into the Derby - too many starts, started career too early at age 2, etc. Any credence to that idea?


What do you consider early? 6 of past 12 derby winners started their career in August or before.

SecretAgentMan
04-12-2014, 11:10 PM
82% of derby horses past 10 years are Kentucky bred, so yes, its a huge advantage........so the 10 year bred in Kentucky trend isn't that important.

letswastemoney
04-13-2014, 06:57 PM
82% of derby horses past 10 years are Kentucky bred, so yes, its a huge advantage........so the 10 year bred in Kentucky trend isn't that important.
I agree. Best Pal ran excellent in 1991. The right horse can do it.

horses4courses
04-13-2014, 07:16 PM
We've had NY breds, PA breds, CA breds......just give me the right horse.
He could have been bred on Mars , for all I care.

Real Quiet won the Derby, and nearly the TC, with a gazillion starts before May.
Again, just give me the right horse on Derby Day.

Horses don't fit in pigeon holes.

SecretAgentMan
04-13-2014, 08:15 PM
I like Cali Chrome right now & he's bred in Cali.......I just think he's mountains better of any other horse heading into the derby. Now we just gotta wait for post positions.

I would like to see him work over churchill tho......

horses4courses
04-13-2014, 09:56 PM
For all you trend and angle players, here's a real doozy.
Enjoy...... ;)

http://www.xpressbet.com/ReadPostTime?id=8698

Leparoux
04-13-2014, 10:34 PM
We've had NY breds, PA breds, CA breds......just give me the right horse.
He could have been bred on Mars , for all I care.

Real Quiet won the Derby, and nearly the TC, with a gazillion starts before May.
Again, just give me the right horse on Derby Day.

Horses don't fit in pigeon holes.
Love this.

SecretAgentMan
04-13-2014, 10:35 PM
For all you trend and angle players, here's a real doozy.
Enjoy...... ;)

http://www.xpressbet.com/ReadPostTime?id=8698


Has some good trends but why doesn't the writer give out the strikes for every derby horse? He even includes Social Inclusion who isn't even running in the derby.

Midnight Cruiser
04-14-2014, 12:48 AM
Dont forget the huge percentage of RAN sire line winners of derby. Throw in the Apollo curse, dosage over 4.0, dosage points over 16 and you land on only 2 horses....

Midnight Cruiser
04-14-2014, 12:49 AM
But Im gunna wait till we hear from Kerry Thomas and the Whisperers

SecretAgentMan
04-14-2014, 01:06 AM
Dont forget the huge percentage of RAN sire line winners of derby. Throw in the Apollo curse, dosage over 4.0, dosage points over 16 and you land on only 2 horses....


The only 2 that fit the above scenarios are:


Ride On Curlin

General A Rod

Midnight Cruiser
04-14-2014, 01:57 PM
The only 2 that fit the above scenarios are:


Ride On Curlin

General A Rod


Bingo, tell him what he's won Johnny...

letswastemoney
04-14-2014, 02:19 PM
Dosage stuff is nonsense to me.

SecretAgentMan
04-14-2014, 03:10 PM
The strike system has California Chrome at zero strikes.

Samraat has zero strikes

Wicked Strong has 1 strike

Hoppertunity has 1 strike


Don't have the others yet but when I do I will type them.in.

Object of this system created by John White is to have zero strikes.

bgbootha
04-14-2014, 04:43 PM
• Dating back to 1962 no horse has finished worse than 3rd in its final prep race has won the Kentucky Derby. Only three horses have won the Kentucky Derby after finishing 4th in the same time period.
 Uncle Sigh (5th, Wood Memorial)
 Cairo Prince (4th, Florida Derby)
 Tapiture (4th, Arkansas Derby)

• Since 1882 no horse has won the Kentucky Derby without racing at age 2. Since Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, no horse has won the derby without winning at the age of 2. And Pegasus won on Jan. 2nd that year.
 Constitution (broke maiden on Jan. 11th)
 Hoppertunity (broke maiden on Jan. 30th)
 Ring Weekend (broke maiden on Feb. 8th)

• 46 of the last 48 Kentucky Derby winners were first of second with a Furlong remaining in the Kentucky Derby; the only two exceptions were Grindstone in 1996, Giacomo in 2005. In a field of 20 you have to be close to the lead come the final furlong. Eliminate any horse that wasn’t in 1st or 2nd with a furlong to go in both their last starts.
 Wicked Strong
 We Miss Artie
 Candy Boy
 Cairo Prince
 Danza
 Tapiture
 Candy Boy

• Only three horses have won the derby since 1973 who hadn’t won a graded stakes race prior.
 Wicked Strong
 Danza
 Ride On Curlin
 General A Rod
 Uncle Sigh

• Only six horses have won the derby who have ran less than six total starts before entering the Kentucky Derby.
 Vicar’s In Trouble (5 starts)
 Danza (4 starts)
 Constitution (3 starts)
 Hoppertunity (5 starts)
 Chitu (4 starts)
 Midnight Hawk (5 starts)
 Cairo Prince (5 starts)
 Uncle Sigh (5 starts)

• Only two geldings have won the Kentucky Derby since 1930.
 Ring Weekend


*As seen in Horse Betting Direct's Kentucky Derby Preview packet
*Adapted from John White strikes system

PhantomOnTour
04-14-2014, 04:49 PM
Didn't Giacomo run 4th in the SA Derby?

Bullet Plane
04-14-2014, 05:03 PM
Yes, that was one of the strikes for Giacomo.

The other was the fact that he didn't have a graded stakes win.

Robert Fischer
04-14-2014, 05:04 PM
White seems to have made a few mixups, but that is still interesting.

edited for what were either errors or misreads by me =
• Dating back to 1962 no horse has finished worse than 3rd in its final prep race has won the Kentucky Derby. Only three horses have won the Kentucky Derby after finishing 4th :confused:(4 is worse than 3rd) in the same time period.
 Uncle Sigh (5th, Wood Memorial)
 Cairo Prince (4th, Florida Derby)
 Tapiture (4th, Arkansas Derby)

• Since 1882 no horse has won the Kentucky Derby without racing at age 2. Since Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, no horse has won the derby without winning at the age of 2. And Pegasus won on Jan. 2nd that year.
 Constitution (broke maiden on Jan. 11th)
 Hoppertunity (broke maiden on Jan. 30th)
 Ring Weekend (broke maiden on Feb. 8th)

• 46 of the last 48 Kentucky Derby winners were first of second with a Furlong remaining in the Kentucky Derby; the only two exceptions were Grindstone in 1996, Giacomo in 2005. In a field of 20 you have to be close to the lead come the final furlong. Eliminate any horse that wasn’t in 1st or 2nd with a furlong to go in both their last starts.
 Wicked Strong
 We Miss Artie
 Candy Boy
 Cairo Prince
 Danza
 Tapiture
 Candy Boy

• Only three horses have won the derby since 1973 who hadn’t won a graded stakes race prior.
 Wicked Strong (Wood?)
 Danza (Arkansas Derby?)
 Ride On Curlin
 General A Rod
 Uncle Sigh

• Only six horses have won the derby who have ran less than six total starts before entering the Kentucky Derby.
 Vicar’s In Trouble (5 starts)
 Danza (4 starts)
 Constitution (3 starts)
 Hoppertunity (5 starts)
 Chitu (4 starts)
 Midnight Hawk (5 starts)
 Cairo Prince (5 starts)
 Uncle Sigh (5 starts)

• Only two geldings have won the Kentucky Derby since 1930.
 Ring Weekend


*As seen in Horse Betting Direct's Kentucky Derby Preview packet
*Adapted from John White strikes system

SecretAgentMan
04-14-2014, 05:21 PM
Mine The Bird & Giacomo both ran 4th in their prep race before the derby.

bgbootha
04-14-2014, 06:50 PM
White seems to have made a few mixups, but that is still interesting.

edited for what were either errors or misreads by me =

Those are my typos or misses....fixing them

Mr. Nobody
04-14-2014, 07:19 PM
Dating back to 1988, 5 of the last 7 times the Santa Anita Derby has been run under 1:48.00 the winner of the Kentucky Derby has come out of that race (Winning Colors, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Ill Have Another). During that same time period only one horse has run slower than 1:48 in the SA Derby and won the KY Derby (longshot Giacomo). California Chrome ran 1:47.52.

SecretAgentMan
04-14-2014, 08:26 PM
Dating back to 1988, 5 of the last 7 times the Santa Anita Derby has been run under 1:48.00 the winner of the Kentucky Derby has come out of that race (Winning Colors, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, Ill Have Another). During that same time period only one horse has run slower than 1:48 in the SA Derby and won the KY Derby (longshot Giacomo). California Chrome ran 1:47.52.


Im liking Chrome even more.........

Curlin
04-15-2014, 08:26 AM
Any stats on horses who have never left their home circuit, track, or state?

bgbootha
04-17-2014, 02:44 PM
I know its pointless in the long run,but its fun! And can be telling a little. But here is a blog I just wrote for our site. Thought I would share.

---------------
Every year millions of people try to handicap one of the toughest races of the year, the Kentucky Derby. The reason this race is so tough is very simple. There are 20 horses running in the race. That’s more than any other horse race in the United States throughout the rest of the year. In order to have a chance at figuring out how to cash a ticket on Derby day, you have to start by eliminating horses that aren’t going to make it. Derby journalist Jon White came up with his strike system a few years back and this list is a similar system based on some of his research. You can find even more data like this in our FREE Derby packet as well.


Dating back to 1962 no horse that has finished worse than 4th in its final prep race has won the Kentucky Derby. Only three horses have won the Kentucky Derby after finishing 4th in the same time period.
This eliminates:
Uncle Sigh (5th, Wood Memorial)
Cairo Prince (4th, Florida Derby)
Tapiture (4th, Arkansas Derby)
Vinceremos (14th, Blue Grass)
Harry’s Holiday (13th, Blue Grass)


Since 1882 no horse has won the Kentucky Derby without racing at age 2. Since 2000, no horse has won the derby without winning at the age of 2.
This eliminates:
Hoppertunity (broke maiden on Jan. 30th)
Ring Weekend (broke maiden on Feb. 8th)
Vinceremos (broke maiden on Jan. 4th)


46 of the last 48 Kentucky Derby winners were first or second with a Furlong remaining in the Kentucky Derby; the only two exceptions were Grindstone in 1996, Giacomo in 2005. In a field of 20 you have to be close to the lead come the final furlong. Eliminate any horse that wasn’t in 1st or 2nd with a furlong to go in both their last starts.
This eliminates:


Wicked Strong
We Miss Artie
Candy Boy
Cairo Prince
Danza
Tapiture
Vinceremos
Harry’s Holiday
Commanding Curve


Only three horses have won the derby since 1973 who hadn’t won a graded stakes race prior.
This eliminates:
Ride On Curlin
General A Rod
Uncle Sigh
Harry’s Holiday
Commanding Curve


Only six horses have won the derby who have ran less than six total starts before entering the Kentucky Derby.
This eliminates:
Vicar’s In Trouble (5 starts)
Danza (4 starts)
Hoppertunity (5 starts)
Chitu (4 starts)
Midnight Hawk (5 starts)
Cairo Prince (5 starts)
Uncle Sigh (5 starts)
Vinceremos (5 starts)


Only two geldings have won the Kentucky Derby since 1930.
This eliminates:
Ring Weekend

Now if you are keeping score….How many negative points did each horse get?
California Chrome 0
Intense Holiday 0
Medal Count 0
Samraat 0
Dance With Fate 0
WildCat Red 0
Wicked Strong -1
We Miss Artie -1
Midnight Hawk -1
Vicar’s In Trouble -1
Chitu -1
Ride On Curlin -1
General A Rod -1
Candy Boy -2
Hoppertunity -2
Tapiture -2
Danza -2
Ring Weekend -2
*Commanding Curve -2
Cairo Prince -3
Uncle Sigh -3
*Harry’s Holiday -3
*Vinceremos -4

So what does this mean?
In order to handicap a race with 20 horses we have to start by tossing a number of them to the wayside. Taking a closer look at thsi list I think its safe to say that a number of these horses simply don’t have a chance to win the Kentucky Derby. Now that doesn’t mean they won’t pull a Golden Soul and come from no where to finish second or third. But can we safely toss a few of these from the winners circle?

SecretAgentMan
04-17-2014, 05:11 PM
I know its pointless in the long run,but its fun! And can be telling a little. But here is a blog I just wrote for our site. Thought I would share.

---------------
Every year millions of people try to handicap one of the toughest races of the year, the Kentucky Derby. The reason this race is so tough is very simple. There are 20 horses running in the race. That’s more than any other horse race in the United States throughout the rest of the year. In order to have a chance at figuring out how to cash a ticket on Derby day, you have to start by eliminating horses that aren’t going to make it. Derby journalist Jon White came up with his strike system a few years back and this list is a similar system based on some of his research. You can find even more data like this in our FREE Derby packet as well.


Dating back to 1962 no horse that has finished worse than 4th in its final prep race has won the Kentucky Derby. Only three horses have won the Kentucky Derby after finishing 4th in the same time period.
This eliminates:
Uncle Sigh (5th, Wood Memorial)
Cairo Prince (4th, Florida Derby)
Tapiture (4th, Arkansas Derby)
Vinceremos (14th, Blue Grass)
Harry’s Holiday (13th, Blue Grass)


Since 1882 no horse has won the Kentucky Derby without racing at age 2. Since 2000, no horse has won the derby without winning at the age of 2.
This eliminates:
Hoppertunity (broke maiden on Jan. 30th)
Ring Weekend (broke maiden on Feb. 8th)
Vinceremos (broke maiden on Jan. 4th)


46 of the last 48 Kentucky Derby winners were first or second with a Furlong remaining in the Kentucky Derby; the only two exceptions were Grindstone in 1996, Giacomo in 2005. In a field of 20 you have to be close to the lead come the final furlong. Eliminate any horse that wasn’t in 1st or 2nd with a furlong to go in both their last starts.
This eliminates:


Wicked Strong
We Miss Artie
Candy Boy
Cairo Prince
Danza
Tapiture
Vinceremos
Harry’s Holiday
Commanding Curve


Only three horses have won the derby since 1973 who hadn’t won a graded stakes race prior.
This eliminates:
Ride On Curlin
General A Rod
Uncle Sigh
Harry’s Holiday
Commanding Curve


Only six horses have won the derby who have ran less than six total starts before entering the Kentucky Derby.
This eliminates:
Vicar’s In Trouble (5 starts)
Danza (4 starts)
Hoppertunity (5 starts)
Chitu (4 starts)
Midnight Hawk (5 starts)
Cairo Prince (5 starts)
Uncle Sigh (5 starts)
Vinceremos (5 starts)


Only two geldings have won the Kentucky Derby since 1930.
This eliminates:
Ring Weekend

Now if you are keeping score….How many negative points did each horse get?
California Chrome 0
Intense Holiday 0
Medal Count 0
Samraat 0
Dance With Fate 0
WildCat Red 0
Wicked Strong -1
We Miss Artie -1
Midnight Hawk -1
Vicar’s In Trouble -1
Chitu -1
Ride On Curlin -1
General A Rod -1
Candy Boy -2
Hoppertunity -2
Tapiture -2
Danza -2
Ring Weekend -2
*Commanding Curve -2
Cairo Prince -3
Uncle Sigh -3
*Harry’s Holiday -3
*Vinceremos -4

So what does this mean?
In order to handicap a race with 20 horses we have to start by tossing a number of them to the wayside. Taking a closer look at thsi list I think its safe to say that a number of these horses simply don’t have a chance to win the Kentucky Derby. Now that doesn’t mean they won’t pull a Golden Soul and come from no where to finish second or third. But can we safely toss a few of these from the winners circle?


Good stuff man.....thanks for the info!

BlueChip@DRF
04-18-2014, 12:18 PM
Dating back to 1962 no horse that has finished worse than 4th in its final prep race has won the Kentucky Derby. Only three horses have won the Kentucky Derby after finishing 4th in the same time period.
This eliminates:
Uncle Sigh (5th, Wood Memorial)
Cairo Prince (4th, Florida Derby)
Tapiture (4th, Arkansas Derby)
Vinceremos (14th, Blue Grass)
Harry’s Holiday (13th, Blue Grass)




Those are some stats you compiled! But I'd like to take a closer look at this one.

Tapiture and Cairo Prince shouldn't be eliminated since they finished 4th in their last prep. Cairo Prince is bred for this distance but he has been treated with kid gloves. Tapiture, on the other hand, has a finishing pattern that matches Giacomo and Mine That Bird. And mind you, he was giving weight (4-5 lbs) in his last race. Let's see how it plays out when the field is level. That 4-2 pattern is what I look for in stakes races, not just the Derby. Doesn't work all the time, but you can get good odds.

There are a LOT of angles going into this race that no one horse possesses ALL of them, unlike the top 3 finishers of last year's Derby.

The LHX (large-heart chromosome) factor is what I look at and the only qualifiers in this field are:
Wildcat Red
Social Inclusion
Ring Weekend
Cairo Prince

Last year they finished 1-2-3-17 (yes, Golden Soul was one of them with a LHX)

And there is the highest Dosage points: (they finished 1-2-3 last year, and yes, Golden Should had the 2nd highest DP, Orb had the highest)
Medal Count - 36
We Miss Artie - 26
Ring Weekend - 24
Commanding Curve - 22
California Chrome - 22

Hmmm… Ring Weekend???

bgbootha
04-18-2014, 12:44 PM
Those are some stats you compiled! But I'd like to take a closer look at this one.

Tapiture and Cairo Prince shouldn't be eliminated since they finished 4th in their last prep. Cairo Prince is bred for this distance but he has been treated with kid gloves. Tapiture, on the other hand, has a finishing pattern that matches Giacomo and Mine That Bird. And mind you, he was giving weight (4-5 lbs) in his last race. Let's see how it plays out when the field is level. That 4-2 pattern is what I look for in stakes races, not just the Derby. Doesn't work all the time, but you can get good odds.

There are a LOT of angles going into this race that no one horse possesses ALL of them, unlike the top 3 finishers of last year's Derby.

The LHX (large-heart chromosome) factor is what I look at and the only qualifiers in this field are:
Wildcat Red
Social Inclusion
Ring Weekend
Cairo Prince

Last year they finished 1-2-3-17 (yes, Golden Soul was one of them with a LHX)

And there is the highest Dosage points: (they finished 1-2-3 last year, and yes, Golden Should had the 2nd highest DP, Orb had the highest)
Medal Count - 36
We Miss Artie - 26
Ring Weekend - 24
Commanding Curve - 22
California Chrome - 22

Hmmm… Ring Weekend???

Agreed, I have removed Cairo and Tapiture from that list on our site. Thanks. Not sure how i missed that.

I like the idea of looking at the LHX as well. I am working on some of the positive angles, and I would like to include this info into it as well. Good thoughts!

Can you go deeper into the dosage points?

BlueChip@DRF
04-18-2014, 01:16 PM
Agreed, I have removed Cairo and Tapiture from that list on our site. Thanks. Not sure how i missed that.

I like the idea of looking at the LHX as well. I am working on some of the positive angles, and I would like to include this info into it as well. Good thoughts!

Can you go deeper into the dosage points?

I'm not sure how it works, I just looked them up at www.pedigreequery.com. and noticed the total number of dosage points for the top 3 finishers last year. Doesn't work all the time. Also, using that same site, I'll Have Another is a 'throwback' in breeding with a lot of S and P chefs occurring within 5 generations. S and P chef is the stamina side of breeding. The only contender in this field with an S or P on BOTH sides is…..





















Wait for it……..






















Wait for it………

















Ring Weekend

http://brotherpeacemaker.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/scooby_doo_scared.jpg

SecretAgentMan
04-18-2014, 01:22 PM
Those are some stats you compiled! But I'd like to take a closer look at this one.

Tapiture and Cairo Prince shouldn't be eliminated since they finished 4th in their last prep. Cairo Prince is bred for this distance but he has been treated with kid gloves. Tapiture, on the other hand, has a finishing pattern that matches Giacomo and Mine That Bird. And mind you, he was giving weight (4-5 lbs) in his last race. Let's see how it plays out when the field is level. That 4-2 pattern is what I look for in stakes races, not just the Derby. Doesn't work all the time, but you can get good odds.

There are a LOT of angles going into this race that no one horse possesses ALL of them, unlike the top 3 finishers of last year's Derby.

The LHX (large-heart chromosome) factor is what I look at and the only qualifiers in this field are:
Wildcat Red
Social Inclusion
Ring Weekend
Cairo Prince

Last year they finished 1-2-3-17 (yes, Golden Soul was one of them with a LHX)

And there is the highest Dosage points: (they finished 1-2-3 last year, and yes, Golden Should had the 2nd highest DP, Orb had the highest)
Medal Count - 36
We Miss Artie - 26
Ring Weekend - 24
Commanding Curve - 22
California Chrome - 22

Hmmm… Ring Weekend???


Do you have the stats on how the LHX horses have done in say the past 20 years of the derby?

SecretAgentMan
04-18-2014, 03:04 PM
Jon White's strike system...... 35 of past 41 derby winners had 0 or 1 strike. 5 of the horses had 2 strikes & only 1 horse had more than 2 strikes past 41 years, Mine That Bird had 4 strikes.

This years strikes:

Cali Chrome.......0
Samraat.........0
Intense Holiday........0
Wild Cat Red.. .......0
Medal Count..........0
Wicked Strong........1
Dance Fate.......1
Hoppertunity........1
Ring Weekend........1
Candy Boy........1
Cairo Prince.......1
Vinceremos........2
General Rod.........2
Tapiture..........2
Chitu........2
Ride Curlin.......2
We Miss Art.......2
Danza........2
Vicars.........2
Uncle Sigh.........3


I got this information off of another forum.........

taxicab
04-18-2014, 03:44 PM
Those are some stats you compiled! But I'd like to take a closer look at this one.

Tapiture and Cairo Prince shouldn't be eliminated since they finished 4th in their last prep. Cairo Prince is bred for this distance but he has been treated with kid gloves. Tapiture, on the other hand, has a finishing pattern that matches Giacomo and Mine That Bird. And mind you, he was giving weight (4-5 lbs) in his last race. Let's see how it plays out when the field is level. That 4-2 pattern is what I look for in stakes races, not just the Derby. Doesn't work all the time, but you can get good odds.

There are a LOT of angles going into this race that no one horse possesses ALL of them, unlike the top 3 finishers of last year's Derby.

The LHX (large-heart chromosome) factor is what I look at and the only qualifiers in this field are:
Wildcat Red
Social Inclusion
Ring Weekend
Cairo Prince

Last year they finished 1-2-3-17 (yes, Golden Soul was one of them with a LHX)

And there is the highest Dosage points: (they finished 1-2-3 last year, and yes, Golden Should had the 2nd highest DP, Orb had the highest)
Medal Count - 36
We Miss Artie - 26
Ring Weekend - 24
Commanding Curve - 22
California Chrome - 22

Hmmm… Ring Weekend???

I've been waiting for someone to uncover this guy.
Ring Weekend could very well be good on Derby Day.
Just as Wicked Strong got the sweetest trip in any 3yo prep race this year ( It was a perfect harness trip.....I thought Tim Tetrick was riding Wicked Strong),Ring Weekend had a miserable trip in the Calder Derby.
From the second the gate opened RW was taking a very uncomfortable trip @ CRC.
He never had a chance to settle.
To RW credit he was able to get on even terms with the winner early in the stretch.....
But jockey Garcia had to stand up on RW to avoid a nasty hit, and RW race was over.
The head on replay of this race paints a pretty good picture.

bgbootha
04-18-2014, 03:49 PM
Do you have the stats on how the LHX horses have done in say the past 20 years of the derby?

I spent some time looking for some of this this morning without much luck. There doesn't seem to be much historical data that I could find on this.

SecretAgentMan
04-18-2014, 04:02 PM
I spent some time looking for some of this this morning without much luck. There doesn't seem to be much historical data that I could find on this.

Hmm.....someone has the info out there, hopefully they will share it.

SecretAgentMan
04-18-2014, 04:19 PM
I spent some time looking for some of this this morning without much luck. There doesn't seem to be much historical data that I could find on this.



I just saw you had posted the strike system above & I went ahead & posted it as well before seeing you doing it, lol.......gotta get new info.

bgbootha
04-18-2014, 05:57 PM
I just saw you had posted the strike system above & I went ahead & posted it as well before seeing you doing it, lol.......gotta get new info.

all good brother....rather see good info twice than not at all! :ThmbUp:

BlueChip@DRF
04-18-2014, 06:53 PM
Do you have the stats on how the LHX horses have done in say the past 20 years of the derby?

2013 Orb
2010 Super Saver
2008 Big Brown (x2: two lines he could have inherited LHX)
2004 Smarty Jones
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus
1999 Charismatic (x2)
1998 Real Quiet (x4)
1997 Silver Charm (x2)
1996 Grindstone
1995 Thunder Gulch
1994 Go For Gin (x3)
1993 Sea Hero (x2)
1990 Unbridled (x4)
1988 Winning Colors
1987 Alysheba (x5)
1984 Swale
1981 Pleasant Colony (x2)
1980 Genuine Risk
1979 Spectacular Bid
1978 Affirmed (x4) *TC*
1977 Seattle Slew (x5) *TC*
1975 Foolish Pleasure (x4)
1974 Cannonade (x5)
1973 Secretariat (x4) *TC* direct descendant (2nd gen) from Princequillo line



Non-LHX winners
2012 I'll Have Another - his lineage was a throwback to old school breeding
2011 Animal Kingdom - stamina from his broodmare sire side (European champion bloodlines)
2009 Mine That Bird - most i-Chefs
2007 Street Sense - inferior stock that year?
2006 Barbaro - superior but fragile
2005 Giacomo - benefactor of a blazing pace
2003 Funny Cide - stamina galore [multiple S and P-chefs within 5 generations] on both sides of lineage
2002 War Emblem - benefactor of being left alone on the lead, the other speed in the race swallowed up by the volume of the field at the start.
2001 Monarchos - stamina [S-Chef] on both sides
1992 Lil E Tee - no crossbreeding within 5 generations
1991 Strike The Gold - stamina [S-Chef] on both sides
1989 Sunday Silence
1986 Ferdinand
1985 Spend A Buck
1983 Sunny's Halo
1982 Gato Del Sol
1976 Bold Forbes

sbcaris
04-18-2014, 08:00 PM
Blue Chip @drf: I don't know what criteria you are using but if you were to use War Admiral or Mahmoud in the X passing position you should have gotten the following:

2012--I'll Have Another traces to War Admiral in the LH-X position by way of Courtly Dee on the dam side. Click on Courtly Dee and you will see she traces back to War Admiral.

2011--Animal Kingdom traces to War Admiral in the LH-X position by way of Navajo Princess on his dam side.

2009-- Mine That Brid traces to War Admiral in the LH-X position by way of Classy Quillo on his dam side.

2007--Street Sense traces to Mahmoud in the LH-X position by way of His Majesty who is his second damsire.

This year the following horses all have LH-X stallions in their pedigree if you refer to War Admiral and Mahmoud in the X passing positions:

Ride On Curlin, Hoppertunity, California Chrome, Wicked Strong, Wildcat Red, Chitu, Vicars in Trouble, Tapiture, Ring Weekend, Medal Count, Cairo Prince, Uncle Sigh, Harrys Holiday, Commanding Curve and Vinceremos to name a few.

If you need any help on this angle let me know. I wrote an article for American Turf Magazine a few years ago on this very factor for the KY Derby.

BlueChip@DRF
04-18-2014, 08:13 PM
Blue Chip @drf: I don't know what criteria you are using but if you were to use War Admiral or Mahmoud in the X passing position you should have gotten the following:

2012--I'll Have Another traces to War Admiral in the LH-X position by way of Courtly Dee on the dam side. Click on Courtly Dee and you will see she traces back to War Admiral.

2011--Animal Kingdom traces to War Admiral in the LH-X position by way of Navajo Princess on his dam side.

2009-- Mine That Brid traces to War Admiral in the LH-X position by way of Classy Quillo on his dam side.

2007--Street Sense traces to Mahmoud in the LH-X position by way of His Majesty who is his second damsire.

This year the following horses all have LH-X stallions in their pedigree if you refer to War Admiral and Mahmoud in the X passing positions:

Ride On Curlin, Hoppertunity, California Chrome, Wicked Strong, Wildcat Red, Chitu, Vicars in Trouble, Tapiture, Ring Weekend, Medal Count, Cairo Prince, Uncle Sigh, Harrys Holiday, Commanding Curve and Vinceremos to name a few.

If you need any help on this angle let me know. I wrote an article for American Turf Magazine a few years ago on this very factor for the KY Derby.

Is California Chrome a definitive passing of LHX?

sbcaris
04-18-2014, 08:36 PM
BlueChip@DRF:

You asked, "Is California Chrome a definitive passing of LH-X"?

What exactly do you mean by that statement?

California Chrome's broodmare sire is Not For Love, a maternal grandson of Northern Dancer who definitely transmits part of Northern Dancer's X chromosome to his daughter, Love the Chase, who is the dam of California Chrome. So, Chrome has a part of Northern Dancers X which makes it part of Mahmoud's X.

California Chrome has Dance Number on his dam side in the X passing position. Dance Number, the dam of Not For Love, is a grand-daughter of Buckpasser who is a maternal grandson of War Admiral. So Chrome gets part of War Admiral's X chromosome from his dam, Love the Chase who got part of that X from her sire, Not For Love.

If you are asking, does a horse get the whole X from a distant ancestor? The answer is NO, only part of that X. In fact all descendants of a stallion or mare only get a portion of their X chromosome because of crossing over phenomenon.

In the May issue of American Turf Monthly this year, my article on Buckpassers X chromosome appears on page 1 of the magazine. In this article I go into the details of why Buckpasser in the X is such a valuable angle in the Ky Derby. Last years winner, Orb, was the only runner in the Derby field who qualified on my Buckpasser in the X angle.

Bennie
04-18-2014, 09:37 PM
Some people believe in these "elimination" factors and some do not. I, myself use them every year to some degree. The key is to remember that these are "winning" elimination factors only and should not deter you from using horses who would be "eliminated" underneath in your wagers. Because the exactas and trifectas usually pay pretty good on Derby day it may be wise to play the horses you like as you would normally but think about using them in some exotic wagers with horses who cleared all the "elimination" factors as well.

SecretAgentMan
04-19-2014, 04:09 PM
The following is another angle to look for......

Street Sense, Big Brown, Mine That Bird, Super Saver all had either 7 or 8 I Chefs with others in some of those fields having much higher numbers.This list is from a member in another forum, its the "I" chefs......the winning derby horses usually have a number of 7 or higher........

California Chrome *8
Vicar's In Trouble *3
Dance With Fate *2
Wicked Strong *6
Samraat *3
Danza *4
Constitution *5 (scratched)
Hoppertunity *7
Intense Holiday *5
Wildcat Red *8
We Miss Artie *8
Ride On Curlin *6
Chitu *6
Tapiture *6
Midnight Hawk *4
Ring Weekend *7
General A Rod *9
Medal Count *6
Candy Boy *4
Cairo Prince *8 (scratched)
Uncle Sigh *6
----------------------------------------

SecretAgentMan
04-19-2014, 04:13 PM
Here's last year's entrants with at least 7:

Orb *11 *(1st)
Golden Soul *8 *(2nd)
Revolutionary *8 *(3rd)
Charming Kitten *8 *(9th)
Will Take Charge *7 *(8th)
Palace Malice *7 *(12th)
Black Onyx *7 *(SCR)

Normandy Invasion (4th) had 6

SecretAgentMan
04-19-2014, 10:09 PM
Only 1 horse has won the derby since 1999 while racing more than 7 races before entering the derby.......it was Mine that Bird in 2009.Horses are racing lightly since 2000........Chrome has 10 races under his belt & trying to buck that trend & become the 2nd horse since 1999.

depalma113
04-20-2014, 12:00 AM
24 horses have entered the Kentucky Derby since 2003 with at least two triple digit Beyers in their last three races, 13 have made up some portion of the superfecta.

24 starters: 3 wins - 3 seconds - 4 thirds - 3 fourths.

7 horses have entered the Kentucky Derby since 2003 with two Beyers at 105 or above in their last three races, 5 have made up some portion of the superfecta.

7 starters: 2 wins - 1 second - 1 third - 1 fourth.

5 horses have entered the Kentucky Derby since 2003 with two 105 or higher Beyers at a route in their last three races, 4 have made up some portion of the superfecta.

5 starters: 2 wins - 1 second - 0 third - 1 fourth.

BlueChip@DRF
04-20-2014, 09:35 AM
24 horses have entered the Kentucky Derby since 2003 with at least two triple digit Beyers in their last three races, 13 have made up some portion of the superfecta.

24 starters: 3 wins - 3 seconds - 4 thirds - 3 fourths.

7 horses have entered the Kentucky Derby since 2003 with two Beyers at 105 or above in their last three races, 5 have made up some portion of the superfecta.

7 starters: 2 wins - 1 second - 1 third - 1 fourth.

5 horses have entered the Kentucky Derby since 2003 with two 105 or higher Beyers at a route in their last three races, 4 have made up some portion of the superfecta.

5 starters: 2 wins - 1 second - 0 third - 1 fourth.

So I guess that means we can save money on our bets by keying CC in all spots.

depalma113
04-20-2014, 09:50 AM
So I guess that means we can save money on our bets by keying CC in all spots.

Only 3 horses since 2003 have had 105 or higher beyers in their previous two races. Empire Maker, Smarty Jones and Big Brown. Save even more money, key CC in 1st or 2nd only.

SecretAgentMan
04-20-2014, 10:22 AM
Only 3 horses since 2003 have had 105 or higher beyers in their previous two races. Empire Maker, Smarty Jones and Big Brown. Save even more money, key CC in 1st or 2nd only.



Chrome is in some good company.......

BlueChip@DRF
04-20-2014, 10:23 AM
Only 3 horses since 2003 have had 105 or higher beyers in their previous two races. Empire Maker, Smarty Jones and Big Brown. Save even more money, key CC in 1st or 2nd only.

Still, it might be a 2006 scenario.
An across-the-board bet could probably look like this example: $30 W/P and then $1 Trifecta 123456/123456/CC as a show bet.

BlueChip@DRF
04-20-2014, 10:25 AM
Chrome is in some good company.......

Seems to be the only one.

fmolf
04-20-2014, 11:01 AM
Whatever happened to "can the horse plain run fast, and does he have enough tactical speed to secure position for the stretch run?"

SecretAgentMan
04-20-2014, 11:14 AM
Whatever happened to "can the horse plain run fast, and does he have enough tactical speed to secure position for the stretch run?"


Have you watched any of Chromes past 3 races? He's the fastest horse going into the derby........if you want to see tactical speed, watch the Santa Anita derby where he breaks bad, gets pinched back & within a blink of the eye, he's right up behind the pace setter.

They don't give out 108 & 107 beyers to slow running horses.

bgbootha
04-20-2014, 02:47 PM
Earlier we looked at the Negative Kentucky Derby trends and tried to eliminate horses, but what about the positive angles that are alive on Derby day. A forum user on a number of horse race forums over the years named MoneyLineExpress posts every year with some of his criteria for making a solid Derby horse. He has been able to narrow down his list to a short list of 5 that has included the Derby winner in it each time I have read it. I have used some of those criteria for this purpose here.

Give a point to any horse that won a mile of longer as a 2 year old.
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Intense Holiday
We Miss Artie
Tapiture
Medal Count
Candy Boy
Uncle Sigh
Commanding Curve

Next is to give a point to any horse which ran one of its best 2 speed figures in its last race.
California Chrome
Vicar’s in Trouble
Dance With Fate
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Danza
Candy Boy
Hoppertunity
Intense Holiday
We Miss Artie
Ride On Curlin
Chitu
Medal Count
Commanding Curve

Give points to horses which raced against grades stakes competition prior to the 100 point prep races that began on Marth 28th as 3 year olds.
California Chrome
Vicar’s in Trouble
Dance With Fate
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Hoppertunity
Intense Holiday
WildCat Red
We Miss Artie
Ride On Curlin
Chitu
Tapiture
Ring Weekend
General A Rod
Medal Count
Candy Boy
Cairo Prince
Uncle Sigh
Commanding Curve
Harry’s Holiday
Vinceremos

Give a point to a hose that has won a graded stakes race.
California Chrome
Vicar’s in Trouble
Dance With Fate
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Danza
Hoppertunity
Intense Holiday
WildCat Red
We Miss Artie
Chitu
Tapiture
Ring Weekend
Medal Count
Candy Boy
Cairo Prince
Vinceremos

The horses finish position in both of his last two starts was no worse than the position the horse was at when they hit the eigth pole.
California Chrome
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Danza
Hoppertunity
Intense Holiday
WildCat Red
Tapiture
Ring Weekend
General A Rod
Medal Count
Candy Boy
Cairo Prince
Uncle Sigh
Vinceremos


Who won?

Samraat 5
Intense Holiday 5
Medal Count 5
Wicked Strong 5
Candy Boy 5
California Chrome 4
We Miss Artie 4
Hoppertunity 4
Tapiture 4
Cairo Prince 4
Dance With Fate 3
WildCat Red 3
Vicar’s In Trouble 3
Chitu 3
Danza 3
Ring Weekend 3
*Commanding Curve 3
Uncle Sigh 3
*Vinceremos 3
Ride On Curlin 2
General A Rod 2
*Harry’s Holiday 1

SecretAgentMan
04-20-2014, 02:56 PM
Earlier we looked at the Negative Kentucky Derby trends and tried to eliminate horses, but what about the positive angles that are alive on Derby day. A forum user on a number of horse race forums over the years named MoneyLineExpress posts every year with some of his criteria for making a solid Derby horse. He has been able to narrow down his list to a short list of 5 that has included the Derby winner in it each time I have read it. I have used some of those criteria for this purpose here.

Give a point to any horse that won a mile of longer as a 2 year old.
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Intense Holiday
We Miss Artie
Tapiture
Medal Count
Candy Boy
Uncle Sigh
Commanding Curve

Next is to give a point to any horse which ran one of its best 2 speed figures in its last race.
California Chrome
Vicar’s in Trouble
Dance With Fate
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Danza
Candy Boy
Hoppertunity
Intense Holiday
We Miss Artie
Ride On Curlin
Chitu
Medal Count
Commanding Curve

Give points to horses which raced against grades stakes competition prior to the 100 point prep races that began on Marth 28th as 3 year olds.
California Chrome
Vicar’s in Trouble
Dance With Fate
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Hoppertunity
Intense Holiday
WildCat Red
We Miss Artie
Ride On Curlin
Chitu
Tapiture
Ring Weekend
General A Rod
Medal Count
Candy Boy
Cairo Prince
Uncle Sigh
Commanding Curve
Harry’s Holiday
Vinceremos

Give a point to a hose that has won a graded stakes race.
California Chrome
Vicar’s in Trouble
Dance With Fate
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Danza
Hoppertunity
Intense Holiday
WildCat Red
We Miss Artie
Chitu
Tapiture
Ring Weekend
Medal Count
Candy Boy
Cairo Prince
Vinceremos

The horses finish position in both of his last two starts was no worse than the position the horse was at when they hit the eigth pole.
California Chrome
Wicked Strong
Samraat
Danza
Hoppertunity
Intense Holiday
WildCat Red
Tapiture
Ring Weekend
General A Rod
Medal Count
Candy Boy
Cairo Prince
Uncle Sigh
Vinceremos


Who won?

Samraat 5
Intense Holiday 5
Medal Count 5
Wicked Strong 5
Candy Boy 5
California Chrome 4
We Miss Artie 4
Hoppertunity 4
Tapiture 4
Cairo Prince 4
Dance With Fate 3
WildCat Red 3
Vicar’s In Trouble 3
Chitu 3
Danza 3
Ring Weekend 3
*Commanding Curve 3
Uncle Sigh 3
*Vinceremos 3
Ride On Curlin 2
General A Rod 2
*Harry’s Holiday 1


I've been looking at Medal Count for the past week.......I told my cousin & a few friends he will be in my Exactas & they laughed.

Bgbooth, that guy you mentioned that came up with this elimination process......does he only play the horses with 5 points or do the horses with 4 points get any play?

BlueChip@DRF
04-20-2014, 03:01 PM
What did last year's list look like?

SecretAgentMan
04-20-2014, 03:07 PM
Never mind, you said a short list of 5 horses, hmm.....he's leaving Chrome out of the win! I can't agree with him until I see the post positions.......

bgbootha
04-20-2014, 03:14 PM
I've been looking at Medal Count for the past week.......I told my cousin & a few friends he will be in my Exactas & they laughed.

Bgbooth, that guy you mentioned that came up with this elimination process......does he only play the horses with 5 points or do the horses with 4 points get any play?

He says that historically the winner has had either 4 or 5 points. So I think he would play some of the 4 pointers as well.

SecretAgentMan
04-20-2014, 03:19 PM
Not much of a trend but the past 3 derby winners won their last prep race before the derby.. ......

SecretAgentMan
04-20-2014, 03:20 PM
He says that historically the winner has had either 4 or 5 points. So I think he would play some of the 4 pointers as well.


Ahhh.....that's great! I just can't keep Chrome off my tickets.

bgbootha
04-20-2014, 03:27 PM
What did last year's list look like?

According to his work (I didn't double check any of these)

2013
5 - Orb
5 - Black Onyx
4 - REvolutionary
4 - GoldenCents
4 - LInes of Battle
4 - Charming Kitten


2012
5 = Daddy Nose Best
4 = Union Rags, Alpha, GEmologist, El Padrino, Ill have another, Take Charge Indy

2011
5 - Twice the Appeal, Comma to the Top, Animal Kingdom,
4 - Pants on Fire, Mucho Macho Man,

Will Power
04-21-2014, 01:38 AM
At first glance this is pretty good.

horses4courses
04-21-2014, 12:58 PM
Horses who win their final prep in a "romp", have a hard time winning the KY Derby.

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/marylandgq/From_Springtime_Sensation_to_Derby_Disappointment_ It_Could_Happen_123#

SecretAgentMan
04-21-2014, 04:17 PM
Past 5 derby winners & their last 2 race Bayer figures prior to the derby, 2nd number is race before derby for each horse:


2009......MTB....81.....80

2010.....Super Saver......93.......98

2011......AK.......83......94

2012.....IHA......96......95

2013.....Orb.....97.....97

SecretAgentMan
04-21-2014, 05:23 PM
Last time the Bluegrass winner won the Kentucky derby was 1991 with Strike the Gold.......that's a 23 year trend.......

Delta Cone
04-21-2014, 09:26 PM
Maybe this chart will prove interesting to some. It includes the Beyer speed figures of the Kentucky Derby winners since 1993.

The numbers to the right of the Derby winning figure are in chronological order (i.e., column 1 is last race before the Derby, column 2 is two races before the Derby, etc.)

I've also included a column that shows how the Derby winning figure related to the horse's previous top figure. For example, Sea Hero won the Derby with a 105. His previous top figure was a 99, so he improved 6 points. Smarty Jones is -5 because his Derby winning figure of 107 was actually 5 points lower than his earlier top figure of 112.

PoloUK6108
04-21-2014, 11:32 PM
When's the last time the favorite won back-to-back years?

SecretAgentMan
04-21-2014, 11:51 PM
When's the last time the favorite won back-to-back years?



Would have been 3 straight years with Barboro in 2006, the ML favorite but someone bet another horse for big money so last time back to back was 2007-2008

Will Power
04-21-2014, 11:51 PM
82% of derby horses past 10 years are Kentucky bred, so yes, its a huge advantage........so the 10 year bred in Kentucky trend isn't that important.

I have to ask...

Isn't 82% of 10 = to 8.2. Can a horse be partially a Kentucky bred?

bgbootha
04-21-2014, 11:52 PM
I have to ask...

Isn't 82% of 10 = to 8.2. Can a horse be partially a Kentucky bred?

What if you cross the state line while concemating the relationship? :cool:

Will Power
04-21-2014, 11:59 PM
We've had NY breds, PA breds, CA breds......just give me the right horse.
He could have been bred on Mars , for all I care.

Real Quiet won the Derby, and nearly the TC, with a gazillion starts before May.
Again, just give me the right horse on Derby Day.

Horses don't fit in pigeon holes.


So I'm trying to reconcile the quote, "Horses don't fit in pigeon holes" to the moniker horses4courses.

Does this seem contradictory to anyone else? Or am I missing some sort of, "duality of man" inside joke, thing.

SecretAgentMan
04-21-2014, 11:59 PM
I have to ask...

Isn't 82% of 10 = to 8.2. Can a horse be partially a Kentucky bred?


I didn't post the number of horses that ran in those 10 years........

SecretAgentMan
04-22-2014, 12:03 AM
So I'm trying to reconcile the quote, "Horses don't fit in pigeon holes" to the moniker horses4courses.

Does this seem contradictory to anyone else? Or am I missing some sort of, "duality of man" inside joke, thing.


Yeah, I think he's saying that no matter what, if the horse is ready to win, he's ready no matter where he's born?

IMO, there's a reason why horses cost so much when bred in Kentucky, history doesn't lie.

But, there's a horse from Cali this year & he is better than any Kentucky bred crop, at least that's my opinion.

BlueChip@DRF
04-22-2014, 08:30 AM
Whoever you like (or don't like), now is the time to bet them because you will never see odds like this on them ever again.

SecretAgentMan
04-22-2014, 09:32 AM
Whoever you like (or don't like), now is the time to bet them because you will never see odds like this on them ever again.


Yes, you're absolutely right, whether its a 2-1 or 20-1, you won't get those odds in the Preakness on your horse unless he comes in the bottom 5 of the derby.

Scared money doesn't win money.......too many indesicive cappers. Study the race, pick your horse & pound it .......

SecretAgentMan
04-22-2014, 09:45 AM
Trend:

Pletcher is 1 for 36 in the KD......I would throw out all his horses for the win.

SecretAgentMan
04-22-2014, 10:11 AM
Here are White's current Kentucky Derby odds: California Chrome (5-2), Hoppertunity (8-1), Wicked Strong (8-1), Danza (12-1), Vicar's in Trouble (12-1), Dance With Fate (15-1), General a Rod (15-1), Samraat (15-1), Tapiture (15-1), Wildcat Red (15-1), Candy Boy (20-1), Intense Holiday (20-1), Medal Count (20-1), Ride On Curlin (20-1), Uncle Sigh (20-1), Chitu (30-1), Harry's Holiday (30-1), Ring Weekend (30-1), Vinceremos (30-1), We Miss Artie (30-1).

Churchill Downs' Mike Battaglia will announce the official morning-line for the Derby after post positions are drawn on April 30 for the 1 1/4-mile classic.

BlueChip@DRF
04-22-2014, 10:19 AM
Trend

8 out of the last 11 years a winner/2nd place runner from Oaklawn Park has finished in the superfecta.

BlueChip@DRF
04-22-2014, 10:20 AM
Trend:

Pletcher is 1 for 36 in the KD......I would throw out all his horses for the win.

Wait! What if his trend on the reversal???

SecretAgentMan
04-22-2014, 10:33 AM
Wait! What if his trend on the reversal???


Anything is possible but I wouldn't bet on Pletcher winning. I wonder if there is a place I can wager that the 6 or 7 horses combined between Pletcher & Baffert won't win.......I would pound it if I could get decent odds on it.

10 of past 11 years, the derby has been won by a trainer that's never won the derby before........bring it on Art Sherman :)

SecretAgentMan
04-22-2014, 10:39 AM
Trend

8 out of the last 11 years a winner/2nd place runner from Oaklawn Park has finished in the superfecta.


I can see ROC in the super......I don't like Danza at all.

BlueChip@DRF
04-22-2014, 11:09 AM
I can see ROC in the super......I don't like Danza at all.

I guess I will go with Danza. :p

BlueChip@DRF
04-22-2014, 11:10 AM
Anything is possible but I wouldn't bet on Pletcher winning. I wonder if there is a place I can wager that the 6 or 7 horses combined between Pletcher & Baffert won't win.......I would pound it if I could get decent odds on it.

10 of past 11 years, the derby has been won by a trainer that's never won the derby before........bring it on Art Sherman :)

Really? I will have to verify that.... Strong angle.

SecretAgentMan
04-22-2014, 11:26 AM
Really? I will have to verify that.... Strong angle.


Yes, it is a strong angle & its accurate......Pletcher & Baffert have been crossed off my list passed 2 years for the win.

As for jockeys, we've had 3 new jocks that never won past 3 years, not much of a trend. Borel won 3 out of 4 years, 2007, 2009, 2010.

Espinoza wired the field in 2002 on War Emblem......Chrome fits Espinoza perfectly.

PhantomOnTour
04-22-2014, 11:55 AM
Handicap this years race and this years horses- not the last 50 Derbies, not some meaningless "5 of the last 11 winners" junk or some obscure angle.

SecretAgentMan
04-22-2014, 12:02 PM
Handicap this years race and this years horses- not the last 50 Derbies, not some meaningless "5 of the last 11 winners" junk or some obscure angle.


Are you mad bro?? Don't get mad, bet the winni g horse & get even.......:)

bgbootha
04-22-2014, 12:06 PM
Handicap this years race and this years horses- not the last 50 Derbies, not some meaningless "5 of the last 11 winners" junk or some obscure angle.

Someone has to be the fun police... :ThmbDown:

BlueChip@DRF
04-22-2014, 12:23 PM
Someone has to be the fun police... :ThmbDown:

Or needs a hug really bad.

horses4courses
04-22-2014, 01:52 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bl19WuGCcAA3T_B.png

bgbootha
04-22-2014, 02:09 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bl19WuGCcAA3T_B.png

Yeah I think this is apparent, the winner will likley come from off the pace if not way off the pace this year as well.

that being said, the exacta/trifecta may be full of front runners. Interesting thing I may want to look at.

BlueChip@DRF
04-22-2014, 02:19 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bl19WuGCcAA3T_B.png

Wait, that's how they ran in the Derby. What was their actual running style before the Derby?

PhantomOnTour
04-22-2014, 02:21 PM
Are you mad bro?? Don't get mad, bet the winni g horse & get even.......:)
Why would you think I am upset?
I'm not angry that y'all are exploring this thing ten ways from Sunday.
I just think some trends and angles are just statistical randomness rather than something meaningful.

In my experience I have found greater success concentrating on the current field and how they relate to one another over studying past Derby results etc etc etc...

Simmer down na'!

SecretAgentMan
04-22-2014, 04:05 PM
Simmer down na'!


:)

SecretAgentMan
04-22-2014, 04:12 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bl19WuGCcAA3T_B.png


Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Barbaro & Big Brown stalked the pace & I expect Chrome to use his tactical speed to position himself like the 4 I mentioned & stalk the pace before taking over.

Bennie
04-22-2014, 06:42 PM
As far as Trainers repeating, I believe Baffert won in 1998 and again in 2002 so you could say it has been 12 years since any one repeated and 15 different trainers since 1998. The only trainers who have won in the last 15 years who have horses eligible for the Derby are Pletcher, Baffert and Motion. There are 11 trainers this year who have not won. You can eliminate their 7 horses and only have to handicap the other 13. Cuts the field by a 1/3.

sbcaris
04-22-2014, 06:55 PM
Here is a stat that is certainly not a random occurrence and is certainly not due to chance. Over the last 40 years 67.5% of all Derby winners raced a final 3/8 of a mile in 37 4/5 or less in a big 5 prep race (Fla Derby, Wood Memorial, SA Derby, Ark Derby or the Blue Grass when it was raced on dirt). These horses comprised 29% of the starters in that 40 year period and the impact value for this angle is a strong 2.32. These types are winning the roses more than twice as often as statistical expectation. If you run chi square test on the data above the p value comes out to .001 which means the differences in the above groups are not likely to be due to chance or random occurrence.

What does the data above mean? It means that there is a 67% chance that this years Derby winner will fit the above angle. There is a 33% chance that it won't fit the angle. I play the percentages and hopefully can find a horse in the group that fits the angle that goes postcard at lucrative odds.

Side note: Last years winner Orb fit the angle but only returned 5-1 odds. However, the year before, I'll Have Another fit the angle and paid a lucrative 32 dollars to win. Super Saver fit and paid 18 bucks, Barbaro fit the angle, so did Giacomo who paid 100 bucks, so did Smarty Jones, and Funny Cide who paid around 27 dollars.

The above angle has a strong ROI of 41% profit over the 40 year study above and is part of my book-Analyzing the Triple Crown. If you are interested in the above angle or my book you can email me at sbcaris@comcast.net

SecretAgentMan
04-22-2014, 07:19 PM
Here is a stat that is certainly not a random occurrence and is certainly not due to chance. Over the last 40 years 67.5% of all Derby winners raced a final 3/8 of a mile in 37 4/5 or less in a big 5 prep race (Fla Derby, Wood Memorial, SA Derby, Ark Derby or the Blue Grass when it was raced on dirt). These horses comprised 29% of the starters in that 40 year period and the impact value for this angle is a strong 2.32. These types are winning the roses more than twice as often as statistical expectation. If you run chi square test on the data above the p value comes out to .001 which means the differences in the above groups are not likely to be due to chance or random occurrence.

What does the data above mean? It means that there is a 67% chance that this years Derby winner will fit the above angle. There is a 33% chance that it won't fit the angle. I play the percentages and hopefully can find a horse in the group that fits the angle that goes postcard at lucrative odds.

Side note: Last years winner Orb fit the angle but only returned 5-1 odds. However, the year before, I'll Have Another fit the angle and paid a lucrative 32 dollars to win. Super Saver fit and paid 18 bucks, Barbaro fit the angle, so did Giacomo who paid 100 bucks, so did Smarty Jones, and Funny Cide who paid around 27 dollars.

The above angle has a strong ROI of 41% profit over the 40 year study above and is part of my book-Analyzing the Triple Crown. If you are interested in the above angle or my book you can email me at sbcaris@comcast.net


How about you post the horses for this angle :) or maybe someone can do the math with the times & post them.........

SecretAgentMan
04-22-2014, 07:21 PM
As far as Trainers repeating, I believe Baffert won in 1998 and again in 2002 so you could say it has been 12 years since any one repeated and 15 different trainers since 1998. The only trainers who have won in the last 15 years who have horses eligible for the Derby are Pletcher, Baffert and Motion. There are 11 trainers this year who have not won. You can eliminate their 7 horses and only have to handicap the other 13. Cuts the field by a 1/3.


Yes sir.......that's why I like this angle, I know I can count on Baffert & Pletcher to have a 1/3 of the field usually.

Good looking out on the 15 years w/o repeating a derby winning trainer........

sbcaris
04-22-2014, 08:01 PM
Here are the horses that fit this angle this year: The angle I outlined above about final 3/8 fractional times in certain 9 furlong races.

Wildcat Red
General A Rod
Wicked Strong
California Chrome
Hoppertunity
Danza
Ride On Curlin

SecretAgentMan
04-22-2014, 08:12 PM
Here are the horses that fit this angle this year: The angle I outlined above about final 3/8 fractional times in certain 9 furlong races.

Wildcat Red
General A Rod
Wicked Strong
California Chrome
Hoppertunity
Danza
Ride On Curlin


Thank you, much appreciated..........

PhantomOnTour
04-22-2014, 11:22 PM
Here are the horses that fit this angle this year: The angle I outlined above about final 3/8 fractional times in certain 9 furlong races.

Wildcat Red
General A Rod
Wicked Strong
California Chrome
Hoppertunity
Danza
Ride On Curlin
Dance With Fate and Medal Count should also qualify, right?

sbcaris
04-23-2014, 11:37 AM
Phantom on Tour: My study does not include any races on polytracks or turf. In order to qualify on my final 3/8 fraction the horse must have achieved the 37 4/5 time in one of 4 races: Fla Derby, SA Derby, Wood Memorial or Ark Derby or the Blue Grass when it was run on a dirt surface.

Dance with Fate and Medal Count do not qualify because they raced in the Blue Grass over a polytrack. I have found that many horses that race over polytracks have run fast final fractions for the last 3/8 of a mile and these times are not transferable with any degree of predictability when the horse runs back over a dirt surface. They may do well but I will stick with those already proven on dirt.

There was an exception in the polytrack era when Animal Kingdom who had never raced on dirt won the roses off a win in the Spiral Stakes. His final 3/8 in the Spiral over a polytrack was 39 3/5 seconds.

SecretAgentMan
04-23-2014, 11:46 AM
Thank goodness Keenland is going back to dirt by this fall........you will be able to put the Bluegrass stakes horses back into your system sbcaris.......DelMar is going back to dirt by 2015.

I never liked polytracks but Animal Kingdom was playable with the way he was closing in every race, bu the ddidn't fit many angles tho.

Sbcaris, i do like Medal Count to close for the tris & supers tho.

ultracapper
04-23-2014, 11:54 AM
Wait, that's how they ran in the Derby. What was their actual running style before the Derby?

I don't remember FuPeg as a deep closer. Always considered him a presser. He won the Wood, but his race before that was in Cali and I think he wired a sprint stake if my memory serves me.

ultracapper
04-23-2014, 12:05 PM
Thank goodness Keenland is going back to dirt by this fall........you will be able to put the Bluegrass stakes horses back into your system sbcaris.......DelMar is going back to dirt by 2015.

I never liked polytracks but Animal Kingdom was playable with the way he was closing in every race, bu the ddidn't fit many angles tho.

Sbcaris, i do like Medal Count to close for the tris & supers tho.

The Bluegrass has always been such an important race. Back on dirt will be a VERY welcome change.

Track Phantom
04-23-2014, 12:21 PM
I've spent dozens of hours looking at PP's and result charts from previous derbys (I've actually loaded them all dating back to 1992 here http://www.trackphantom.com/KyDerby.html).

There are a couple of things I found:



19 of the last 22 Derby's have been won by a runner who was either 1st or 2nd turning for home. Animal Kingdom was 3rd but only 1 1/2 back at that point. So, really, 20 of the last 22 Derby winners have been on or right next to the leader when they turn for home.
7 of the last 9 Derby's run on a dry track were won by a horse traveling near the early pace (within 4-6 lengths of the lead and in the top 5 or 6 runners).
Todd Pletcher has only ONE win and only FIVE in the money from 36 Derby entrants. It is significant since he had an amazing 47% win percentage with these runners in their prep immediately preceding the Derby. Many looked unbeatable.
Speaking of Pletcher, only ONE of 17 runners that won their prep before the Derby actually hit the superfecta for him (Revolutionary last year). However, 6 of 19 that were coming in off of a loss for Pletcher actually cracked the super.

SecretAgentMan
04-23-2014, 01:05 PM
I've spent dozens of hours looking at PP's and result charts from previous derbys (I've actually loaded them all dating back to 1992 here http://www.trackphantom.com/KyDerby.html).

There are a couple of things I found:



19 of the last 22 Derby's have been won by a runner who was either 1st or 2nd turning for home. Animal Kingdom was 3rd but only 1 1/2 back at that point. So, really, 20 of the last 22 Derby winners have been on or right next to the leader when they turn for home.
7 of the last 9 Derby's run on a dry track were won by a horse traveling near the early pace (within 4-6 lengths of the lead and in the top 5 or 6 runners).
Todd Pletcher has only ONE win and only FIVE in the money from 36 Derby entrants. It is significant since he had an amazing 47% win percentage with these runners in their prep immediately preceding the Derby. Many looked unbeatable.
Speaking of Pletcher, only ONE of 17 runners that won their prep before the Derby actually hit the superfecta for him (Revolutionary last year). However, 6 of 19 that were coming in off of a loss for Pletcher actually cracked the super.



Good stuff my friend......this is the kind of stuff that makes this forum.

depalma113
04-24-2014, 06:02 AM
Thank you, much appreciated..........

Both Medal Count and Dance With Fate ran sub 37 4/5ths final 3/8ths. In fact Dance With Fate's final 3/8ths of 36 1/5th is best of all the entrants.

SecretAgentMan
04-24-2014, 11:00 AM
Both Medal Count and Dance With Fate ran sub 37 4/5ths final 3/8ths. In fact Dance With Fate's final 3/8ths of 36 1/5th is best of all the entrants.


I actually like both of these in my exotics... ...I like medal count a bit more tho.

Tall One
04-26-2014, 12:03 PM
HRN app says Medal Count worked 6F this morning in 1:13...best out of two works.

TVG reports it as 5F in 1:00.41.

SecretAgentMan
04-26-2014, 12:15 PM
Medal Count worked 6F this morning in 1:13...best out of two works.


Medal Count is gonna be in my tris & supers.......

depalma113
04-26-2014, 12:51 PM
Medal Count is gonna be in my tris & supers.......

Medal Count was the best work of the day today at Churchill based on what I saw.

SecretAgentMan
04-26-2014, 01:05 PM
Medal Count was the best work of the day today at Churchill based on what I saw.


Yeah, I think I'm gonna put him in my Exactas as well.......I like this horse a lot, maybe he closes to pick up the pieces & comes in 2nd.

I forgot Chitu is in this race which will pressure Wildcard Red.

SecretAgentMan
04-26-2014, 10:42 PM
John Sadler is like 6 for 76 last 5 years outside of California.......trainer of Candy Boy

SecretAgentMan
04-27-2014, 04:05 PM
We could see back to back sire line by Bold Ruler...... if Cali Chrome wins, this would be only the second time since 1940 that a horse with the same sire line and same dam sire line won the Derby back to back..

Orb had Bold Ruler on his sire line & RAN on his dam sire line........The only other time this has happened was 2000 with Fusaichi Pegasus and in 2001 with Monarchos, both having the RAN sire line and Northern Dancer on the dam side........

This definitely goes against Chromeo & has me nervous.........but not as nervous as Chrome getting the #1, #2 or #3 post.

SecretAgentMan
04-28-2014, 04:11 PM
Jockey Calvin Borel has 3 wins & 2 thirds in past 7 derbys

SecretAgentMan
04-29-2014, 04:48 PM
Past 5 derby winners were not the favorite in their last prep race before the derby.

porkchop
04-30-2014, 04:24 PM
Has anyone taken all the information provided on this thread condensed it and arrived at a possible wagering strategy

SecretAgentMan
04-30-2014, 05:45 PM
Has anyone taken all the information provided on this thread condensed it and arrived at a possible wagering strategy



Post #5..........all in on California Chrome

rcknhrse
04-30-2014, 07:48 PM
jon white after the 2011 derby said on tv"my wife told me if i had bet every horse with only 1 strike i would have won the derby"
nice sifting process ,
if i had bet every horse since forever who was in the top 6 adjusted speed figures i would have won every derby bet ..chrikey

PaceAdvantage
05-01-2014, 03:24 AM
Post #5..........all in on California ChromeGood luck to you. But I feel you are making a mistake.

SecretAgentMan
05-01-2014, 10:45 AM
Good luck to you. But I feel you are making a mistake.



Who do you like Pace?

SecretAgentMan
05-01-2014, 03:54 PM
I'm gonna play several tris & supers with 2 horses on top.......Chrome & Danza over 7 horses in 2nd, 3rd & 4th........

My 7 horses are

#9, #10, #13, #14, #15, #16, #17

PaceAdvantage
05-01-2014, 04:51 PM
Who do you like Pace?Wicked Strong.

SecretAgentMan
05-01-2014, 05:09 PM
Wicked Strong.


Good luck........

SecretAgentMan
05-01-2014, 06:06 PM
Intense Holiday is 2nd choice in my sports book at 7.5-1


I have a futures bet on Tapiture at 18.5-1 but its a loss IMO.........

You can bet these 3 horses as an entry & one of them must win to get paid, (+385 for yes they win) or (-515 for no they wont win)........Wicked Strong, Danza & Ride Curlin.

And the most bizzare question/prop I've ever seen: Has the 2014 Kentucky derby winner ever won the derby before? ......Yes (+125).....No (-150)

Is this a trick question??

woodtoo
05-01-2014, 06:46 PM
It's a secret :D Agentman.

TucsonGreyhound
05-01-2014, 07:21 PM
And the most bizzare question/prop I've ever seen: Has the 2014 Kentucky derby winner ever won the derby before? ......Yes (+125).....No (-150)

Is this a trick question??

Believe this is a Jockey prop

BettinBilly
05-01-2014, 07:32 PM
Wicked Strong.

;):ThmbUp:

SecretAgentMan
05-01-2014, 08:01 PM
Believe this is a Jockey prop


Now that would make sense but they don't mention a jockey at all.

bella sera
05-01-2014, 08:09 PM
love Scooby doo

Some_One
05-01-2014, 11:42 PM
Thanks to Brisnet to putting up PP's all the way back to 2000, I was looking at the pedigrees of the winners, it's interesting to note that of the last 14 winners, only once did the Sire AWD was longer than the Dam AWD (Barbaro). The average difference of the other 13 was +.73 (Animal Kingdom's +3.5 does bring the average up, there were 6 winners with differences of only +.1-+.3).

So bringing this back to this year, Samraat (-.2), Tapiture (-0.9), Candy Boy (-0.7) and Ride on Curlin (-0.4) are well regarded horses running against this.

Some_One
05-02-2014, 12:07 AM
Back to the Brisnet historical PP's, over the last 14 derbies, 11 times the winner recorded at least a 101 LP figure in their prep (the other 3 were a 98, 96 and a 79 to the statistical anomaly that was Mine That Bird).

Looking to the Derby, triple digits are with Danza with a 106 LP last out, Dance with Fate 101 (poly) & Ride on Curlin 101.

Above 95 are C Chrome (97), General A Rod (97), Wildcat Red (99), Chitu (96)

ArlJim78
05-02-2014, 12:18 AM
Thanks to Brisnet to putting up PP's all the way back to 2000, I was looking at the pedigrees of the winners, it's interesting to note that of the last 14 winners, only once did the Sire AWD was longer than the Dam AWD (Barbaro). The average difference of the other 13 was +.73 (Animal Kingdom's +3.5 does bring the average up, there were 6 winners with differences of only +.1-+.3).

So bringing this back to this year, Samraat (-.2), Tapiture (-0.9), Candy Boy (-0.7) and Ride on Curlin (-0.4) are well regarded horses running against this.
check out Pablo Del Monte

Some_One
05-02-2014, 12:20 AM
check out Pablo Del Monte

I did, it was a good laugh, and why I put 'regarded horses' there. He's 50-1 for a reason.

SecretAgentMan
05-02-2014, 12:43 PM
Back to the Brisnet historical PP's, over the last 14 derbies, 11 times the winner recorded at least a 101 LP figure in their prep (the other 3 were a 98, 96 and a 79 to the statistical anomaly that was Mine That Bird).

Looking to the Derby, triple digits are with Danza with a 106 LP last out, Dance with Fate 101 (poly) & Ride on Curlin 101.

Above 95 are C Chrome (97), General A Rod (97), Wildcat Red (99), Chitu (96)


Interesting LP trend of 100 or more on 11 of past 14 derby winners.

SecretAgentMan
05-02-2014, 12:45 PM
Since 1982, only 1 horse that won the Wood Memorial has gone on to win the derby........(2000 F Pegasus)

Matt Bryan
05-02-2014, 01:04 PM
The following is another angle to look for......

Street Sense, Big Brown, Mine That Bird, Super Saver all had either 7 or 8 I Chefs with others in some of those fields having much higher numbers.This list is from a member in another forum, its the "I" chefs......the winning derby horses usually have a number of 7 or higher........

California Chrome *8
Vicar's In Trouble *3
Dance With Fate *2
Wicked Strong *6
Samraat *3
Danza *4
Constitution *5 (scratched)
Hoppertunity *7
Intense Holiday *5
Wildcat Red *8
We Miss Artie *8
Ride On Curlin *6
Chitu *6
Tapiture *6
Midnight Hawk *4
Ring Weekend *7
General A Rod *9
Medal Count *6
Candy Boy *4
Cairo Prince *8 (scratched)
Uncle Sigh *6
----------------------------------------

Can you explain this further? Thanks.

SecretAgentMan
05-02-2014, 03:00 PM
Can you explain this further? Thanks.


I get the information from another member from another forum, it has to do with pedigree going back 4 to 5 generations if I'm not mistaken.......here is last years below

SecretAgentMan
05-02-2014, 03:04 PM
Orb *11 *(1st)
Golden Soul *8 *(2nd)
Revolutionary *8 *(3rd)
Charming Kitten *8 *(9th)
Will Take Charge *7 *(8th)
Palace Malice *7 *(12th)
Black Onyx *7 *(SCR)

Normandy Invasion (4th) had 6.


I looked at everything for Orb & pretty much every angle pointed to Orb last year. He had a high of 40 dosage profile points as well as 11 chefs & both on the sire & broad mare sides. Orb was stacked & also had a great trainer going in.

People say the slop helped Orb win which his pedigree loved the slop & it did help but IMO, Orb was gonna win the derby whether it was dry or sloppy.

Matt Bryan
05-02-2014, 04:08 PM
Orb *11 *(1st)
Golden Soul *8 *(2nd)
Revolutionary *8 *(3rd)
Charming Kitten *8 *(9th)
Will Take Charge *7 *(8th)
Palace Malice *7 *(12th)
Black Onyx *7 *(SCR)

Normandy Invasion (4th) had 6.


I looked at everything for Orb & pretty much every angle pointed to Orb last year. He had a high of 40 dosage profile points as well as 11 chefs & both on the sire & broad mare sides. Orb was stacked & also had a great trainer going in.

People say the slop helped Orb win which his pedigree loved the slop & it did help but IMO, Orb was gonna win the derby whether it was dry or sloppy.

Thanks. I was looking at dosage profiles, in Orb's case 11-12-15-0-2, and didn't know where the *11* came from - or, with Golden Soul (11-5-18-4-0) where the *8* came from. Dosage confuses me anyway, just wondering if I'm missing something.

SecretAgentMan
05-02-2014, 04:30 PM
Thanks. I was looking at dosage profiles, in Orb's case 11-12-15-0-2, and didn't know where the *11* came from - or, with Golden Soul (11-5-18-4-0) where the *8* came from. Dosage confuses me anyway, just wondering if I'm missing something.


A lot of this stuff can be confusing. I'm learning new stuff every day as well. No race has its horses dissected as much as the derby.

Dosage profile points are the ones you mentioned above when added together.

Orbs dosage profile was 40......if you add the 5 numbers together above, you get 40.

A good site is below

SecretAgentMan
05-02-2014, 04:32 PM
http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2014/2014_derby_contenders.htm

SecretAgentMan
05-02-2014, 04:34 PM
Thanks. I was looking at dosage profiles, in Orb's case 11-12-15-0-2, and didn't know where the *11* came from - or, with Golden Soul (11-5-18-4-0) where the *8* came from. Dosage confuses me anyway, just wondering if I'm missing something.


The 11 chef points the guy comes up with maybe has a specific formula, I don't know.......