GOOD NEWS (neglected by LJB of course)

[PaceAdvantage]

Despite what LJB would have you believe, the economy is doing so much better these days, that many now think the Fed will be RAISING interest rates sooner rather than later....

This of course got the stock market all nervous today, which is why the sell off occured, DESPITE the glowing quarterly reports by the likes of JOHNSON and JOHNSON, Merrill Lynch, and Pepsi.

Oh, and did I forget today's RETAIL SALES report, which showed an increase of 1.7% excluding Autos (1.8% including autos), beating consensus estimates handily (estimates called for 0.6% increase ex autos, 0.7% including autos)


Once again, the GOOD news goes UNREPORTED by the anti-Bush folks on this board.

[Secretariat]

I notice this is posted in two seperate threads. (Other news and this one).

There has been a bump over the last two months in McJobs, and the market has risen a bit. That's the good news, but it's been less than a quarter of growth, primarily boosted by defense spending (Halliburton and Lockheed have had record quarters), oil gouging (Exxon led profits this past quarter) and the housing industry (the Fed has had to keep interest rates at record levels basically loaning money for practically nothing).

All this at a time of unprecedented deficits, and a declining dollar (I posted the comparisions to the Euro and dollar in another thread). Our dollar is losing ground to almost every currency in the world over the last two years including the peso, the yen, and the Canadian dollar. Now Treasury cheif Snow and Bush has said it is the policy of this administration to have a strong dollar, yet the results have been anything but that. Wall Street is quite nervous PA, even if you're not. If Greenspan raises those interest rates the housing industry will decline. If he doesn't the deficit will continue to expand, and the dollar will decline more. However, I wager that Halllibrton, Lockheed and Exxon will continue to grow under thia admin, so you may want to beef up your portfolio with those stocks if you think this admin is going to win in the fall.

btw..Here's the latest on our booming economy posted today when I logged on.

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20040414/bs_nm/economy_prices_dc_2

[linrom1]

"You forgot to mention an inflation rate of almost nil"

Ralph, the only reason why you say that there is no inflation is because your government has been telling you that along with the Wall Street shills. The fact is that inflation has been here all along. But, these low inflation reports have allowed the Fed to keep interest rates artificially low and pump the money spigot. One of the consequences of this artificial liquidity is the creation of bubbles in the stock and real estate markets. But contrary to what most believe financial bubbles do not create prosperity, they merely allow a few to prosper at the expense of the masses. The masses will be robbed and raped and then asked to pay for all of this dislocated capital thru increased taxes. Unfortunately most won’t also have any equity left in their houses either as many took out re-fi cash to play the stock market and real estate prices collapse when rates rise.

[Show Me the Wire]

linrom:

Are you predicting a recession, depression or total collapse akin to the communist economic model. What is the point of the post?

OR

Are you recommneding a differnt economic strategy, i.e raise taxes, cut interest rates further? Are you recomending a different economic model? Again what is your point?

Especially, I do not get your post about the masses, while in a prior post you extolled the vituues of Keeneland because of the real money i.e. wealthy owners involved in the meet.

Suggestion to PA ask everone that makes a post end it with some sort of conclusion that even remotely resembles some sort of point.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

perception is realtiy

[Lefty]

I've reported on other threads that unemployment now is the same as the beginning of Clinton's 2nd term. The only diff is then the left was saying it was a wonderful economy. And now an economy with same unemployment rate and better 4th qtr figures is suddenly dismal according to the left. This would boggle my mind if Rush hadn't convinced me what the left was about many yrs ago.

[ljb]

Lefty,
I have expained on another thread the fallacy of the unemployment figures. The fact is: Since George W. Bush took office, nearly 3 million American jobs have been lost. The worst record for any sitting president since H. Hoover. You can use the Rush spin all you want, but it don't feed the kids.

[Lefty]

lbj, so you say the figs are wrong, and your figs are right? I don't think so. The figures are gathered the same way they were during Clinton adm and they're the same. That's not spin that's fact. The jobs are coming back, despite everything we've been through and it's remarkable. But instead of celebrating the good news, the left has to "spin" it into bad news. Your man, Kerry, can only win by misrepresenting the facts. Shameful.

[Lefty]

lbj, "it don't feed the kids" That's right out of the left's playbook, isn't it? I remember Clinton once using a similar line. I submit there should not be any hungry kids in this country. We have school lunch prgms, we have charities giving away food, we have the govt giving away foodstamps. If theres any hungry kids in America then the Parents are to blame and not GW Bush.

[cj]

Originally posted by Lefty
... Your man, Kerry, can only win by misrepresenting the facts. Shameful.

Actually, he can only win if the Democrats are able to secretly push election day up by a week and not tell the Republicans. Even then, you would have to find enough Dems smart enough to properly cast a ballot, so it may still be only 50/50.

In reality, this guy has no shot. He's just a sacrificial lamb until they trot out Hillary for the next election. For some reason, the Dems think she can win! Imagine all the dirt that will come out then. I, for one, can't wait!

[Lefty]

CJ, i'd like to see Condoleeza Rice VS. Hillary in 08. Delicious fun.

[cj]

That would be like a match race, Secretariat (Rice) against Groovy (Hil) at 1 1/2 miles. All class versus cheap speed! :D

[ljb]

Lefty,
I don't recall anyone asking for foodstamps. I have heard some asking for jobs. Please refrain from posting your ditto-head comments here we are trying to have a serious discussion. If you have a thought, share it. If I wanted to here Rush BS I would turn on the radio.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by ljb
Lefty,
I don't recall anyone asking for foodstamps. I have heard some asking for jobs. Please refrain from posting your ditto-head comments here we are trying to have a serious discussion. If you have a thought, share it. If I wanted to here Rush BS I would turn on the radio.

I would suggest you turn it on today. Rush is detailing the fact that an actual Democratic member of the 9-11 commission is responsible for keeping the FBI and others from sharing info that may have helped prevent 9-11 had the previous administration not helped strengthen the so called "block" between the FBI and CIA. Some are calling for that member of the commission to resign. She is now employed by a law firm that is defending the Saudi's who are defendants in civil suits brought by 9-11 families.

I find it interesting also that Ashcroft answered that question about his so called "not flying commercial" around 9-11 and nobody reported that today. In fact he flew commercial at least 3 times in the 3 weeks prior to 9-11 and received no warnings not to fly. He was on a private plane the morning of 9-11 although that flight was scheduled long before. He answered these questions in open testimony yesterday.

There are accusations today that Bill Clinton and this member of the 9-11 commission covered up the documents that were revealed by Ashcroft yesterday......this will be ignored by the media I am sure.

[ljb]

Trying to stay closer to the topic. From the Los Angeles Times.
"Dollars today simply do not command the same purchasing power that they did a few years ago--- a situation that will persist as long as it is painfully obvious that the administration has no plan to reduce the deficit. As the value of the dollar falls, of course, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries raises the dollar price of oil."
From associated press:
"Poll:Taxes higher Half of Americans say the overall taxes they pay--- federal,state and local--- have gone up during the last three years, more then triple the number who feel they've gone down, an Associated Press poll found. By almost a 2-1 ratio, they prefer balancing the nation's budget to cutting taxes.

[Secretariat]

Originally posted by Lefty
lbj, so you say the figs are wrong, and your figs are right? I don't think so. The figures are gathered the same way they were during Clinton adm and they're the same. That's not spin that's fact. The jobs are coming back, despite everything we've been through and it's remarkable. But instead of celebrating the good news, the left has to "spin" it into bad news. Your man, Kerry, can only win by misrepresenting the facts. Shameful.

Lefty, you still don't get it or as Reagan would say, "There you go again."

The types of jobs begin created are primarily low paying service positions (McJobs), and even those are only occurring recently.

As Patrick Meader, the Editor of Visual Basic magazine, wrote to programmers recently ". . . like doctors, you might soon be asking yourself whether working in the present environment, with prospects for diminshed pay as a developer, is worth it. Let me put it this way: Would you want your child to be a computer programmer, tomorrow?"

When we lose these positions to other nations we lose people in this country who would contribute HERE in those positions...

Lefty, just because a guy got hired at McDonalds flipping burgers, and was a programmer making a good living during the Clinton administration doesn't mean that the job is equal, and as enriching, both to that fellow, his family and to the growth of our society. OR perhaps it does in your book

[Lefty]

lbj, you said kids were going hungry. I explained why that's not so. Maybe you forgot your own assertion.
Sec, then how do you explain that household income is up? The prob. is for you Dems is the economy is good. Always bad news for Dems during an election yr.

[ljb]

Lefty,
Uh, you want fries with that?

[Secretariat]

Originally posted by Lefty
lSec, then how do you explain that household income is up? The prob. is for you Dems is the economy is good. Always bad news for Dems during an election yr.

Not sure where you got that info Lefty and I hope it was adjusted or inflation.

Lefty,

Try to understand this example from the US Census.

“The median household income in 1989 in current dollars is $28,906. If you compared that with the 1990 median household income of $29,943, there appears to be an increase. If you adjusted that 1989 income for changes in the cost of living (converted it to 1990 constant or real dollars), the resulting 1989 median household income is $30,468 (now a 1989-to-1990 comparison of income shows a decline of 1.7 percent).”

Now the US Census has only posted historical figures for up to 2001. Yeah, kind of weird, but here’s some info Lefty.

Adjusted to 2001 inflation figures
1999 – Median Household Income – 43,355
2000 – Median Household Income – 43,327
2001 – Median Household Income – 42,228

Now heres what the Whitehouse page has for 2002 on Median Household Income:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr/income.html

“Median household money income in the United States in 2002 was $42,409, 1.1 percent lower than in 2001 after adjusting for 1.6 percent inflation. Under four alternative income definitions that deduct income and payroll taxes and include the value of various noncash benefits, real median household income did not change for three of the four income alternatives and declined 0.8 percent for income after taxes.”

2002 – Median Household Income – 42,409 unadjusted for inflation. As they state when adjusted for inflation it declined 0.8 percent from 2001.

Now 2003 figures are not posted there yet. If you have a posting with the 2003 and 2004 Median Household Income figues Lefty, I’d like to see.

Actually, I don’t see this as a good predictor of the economy though.

For example, if two members of the household are forced to work longer hours to earn the same household income, it doesn’t benefit them. For example, a programmer who makes 80,000 a year and his wife raises the kids. Now he loses his job and is forced to take a service posion making 40,000. His wife has to get a job making 25,000, and the programmer ends up having to take an extra consulting position making up the 15,000 shortfall. They still make 80,000 as a household, but their costs have dramtically increased (daycare for the kids, gas and auto charges, and stress due to longer working hours) Additionally their insurance premiums have increased, and since the dollar has been devalued, their money isn’t buying as much.

Therefore what looks like a wash. The household income was the same - is in reality a very stressful situation for this typical family.

This is what I refer to as getting Bushwhacked.

[linrom1]

The point is that Bush along with the Fed have bankrupted and looted the US Treasury. There is nothing that can be done at this point. They can attempt to keep the rates low as long as possible, which will eventually lead to debt implosion and deflation anyway. But, the markets will now force the Fed’s hand, and rates will have to increase leading to the same end result – deflation and collapse of all financial assets. Now, this did not have to happen, except that Bush wanted a bull market so he could be re-elected. The Iraq war provided the pretext to print all the money that could to postpone the recession

[Lefty]

lin, any proof of those assertions?

[Lefty]

sec, I heard it on some financial news, not sure from where. But let's take your figs. With 9-11, and the war on two fronts,and starting office with a recession from last adm, a good showing for any Pres.

lbj, cutesy comments don't feed the bulldog. Please try and say something cogent.

[Lefty]

sec, I think Larry Kudlow said it on Brinker's radio show last week.
Kudlow's a shrewd cookie.

[Show Me the Wire]

Linrom:

You remind mealot of economists, giving lots of information that is useless.

To clarify my earlier question I ask the following:

multiple choice are you saying:

A: recession

B: depression.

Depending on the above answer what do you recomend to minimize the above answered result?

essay style is acceptable.


My point is stop generalizing, state the facts or your prediction and the steps needed to at least minimize the damage. I am talking economic policies here.

I as most do not want to hear a Democratic president or a change of policy is the answer. I want to know the specifics and the expectations of the change of policy. Agreeing to change without knowing how and what the person plans to do is stupidity.

I understand what Pres. Bush did and is trying to do. I do not understand what your proposal is to minimize the terrible impact, your prediciting, regarding Bush's economic policies.

Again what is your point, based on the above legitimate questions, besides not liking Pres. Bush.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

perception is reality

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally posted by Secretariat
btw..Here's the latest on our booming economy posted today when I logged on.

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20040414/bs_nm/economy_prices_dc_2


A nice quote from the above article:

Mounting signs of economic strength, including a 308,000 gain in payroll jobs and a sharp rise in retail sales in March, had already fueled expectations the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) could move to bump up rates as early as this summer.

[Derek2U]

ummmm ... i would be very cautious about this economy. there's
great buys out there & thats the key ... strategy. in general, I
think the usa economy rates a C+ .... but no more but if U invest,
there are A- potentials. just watch what U own.

[Secretariat]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage
A nice quote from the above article:

Lol…Pa, you selectively chose one sentence out of the whole article of a title that reads,

“CONSUMER PRICES RISE MORE THAN EXPECTED”

Talk about spin. Is that the same type of selective logic Bush used in reading that August PDB memo “BIN LADEN DETERMINED TO ATTACK IN US”

Heres’ a couple of other statements from that article:

“The report appeared likely to foster concerns that have been growing of late that a long period of historically low interest rates would soon be drawing to a close.”

“Over the past 12 months, core prices have risen 1.6 percent, the biggest 12-month gain since the period ending last May and a sharp pick-up from the tame 1.2 percent increase posted through February.”

“A separate report from the Labor Department showed worker wages were not keeping up with the quickened pace of inflation. Real average weekly earnings fell 0.7 percent in March and were essentially unchanged over the past 12 months. “

“The CPI report showed that energy prices rose a steep 1.9 percent last month, building on a string of hefty gains. “

“The department said the acceleration in core prices in March from February's 0.2 percent rise was due to upturns in the cost of lodging away from home and apparel. “

“Clothing prices climbed 0.9 percent after four consecutive monthly drops, while lodging costs 3.8 percent after a big drop in February. “

[Tom]

Originally posted by ljb
Lefty,
I don't recall anyone asking for foodstamps. I have heard some asking for jobs. Please refrain from posting your ditto-head comments here we are trying to have a serious discussion. If you have a thought, share it. If I wanted to here Rush BS I would turn on the radio.


Rush nipping at your arse, is he?

[Tom]

Sec, you better cool it with posting quotes and links and that sort of stuff. Ljb doesn't like that kid of BS posted here-if he wants to read it, he can do so elsewhere.
Just a heads up, to keep the board running smoothly.

:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :eek: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[linrom1]

You keep asking me "what is the point?"

My point is that Bush does not deserve to be re-elected because of his economic policies that will short-change all of us in the future for his own short-term political gains.

As far as what the country can do now is very limited to what IMF and ironically US have been advocating that other countries like Argentina and Thailand do. These measures would usually consist of currency devaluation that would wipeout individual savings; deficit reduction, which meant that pensions got eliminated, and sky racketeering of interest rates, which would bankrupt borrowers. Obviously, such austerity measures are not very popular, but this is precisely what IMF and other countries are now advocating that US do.

There are a number of things that individuals can do protect their wealth by: owning physical gold and silver bullion; elimination of debt, opening of foreign interest bearing currency accounts such as Euros, and even hoarding of some cash by getting out of stocks and bonds (cash is in demand during deflationary times, but this is tricky if one’s currency is being inflated or devalued.)

[Tom]

Lin, your solutions sound to me like they would tend to destroy the economy.
So for a little reality here, just how have YOU been hurt by the economy? Specifically, what government policies-that were under the control of Bush, have hurt you and how?
The acid test here is polices that Bush mandated andd ollar amounts you have been penalized.
Everyone keeps yapping about hte bad economy.....let's hear some specifics that are traceable to Bush.


BTW, I just did my taxes on-line and am getting back the largest refund EVER in my life. And in spite of that, this year I paid out the largest amount of taxes EVER in my life.
Sounds to me like win-win. And you know who else is going to win? American workers because I will spend no money on anything that isn't made right here in America by Americans.
I will do my part to fuel the economy. In fact, I will start tonight by helping out those great workers at the "Jack Daniels Distillery" in Tennesse, USA. And of course, I can not forget those patriots over at "Party Ice" working in sub-zero freezers as we post.

[Show Me the Wire]

Linrom:

I thought that was your point Pres. Bush does not desrve to be re-elected. If those are the economic policies you advocate, I do not agree with you.

I will take my chances with Pres. Bush's policies which are similiar to JFK's and RR's.

Thank you for clarifying your point. I understand it was difficult for you to do because you can't answer a simple multiple choice question that was posed to you.

Your agenda seems to be take a shot and evade the issues. Hmmm sounds like a familiar strategy. I have little ditty for your theme " I got the answer right here, can do, can do, but I won't tell how I can do, won't tell how I can do" You can guess the melody.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

percpetion is reality

[ljb]

Tom,
Thank you for telling Sec. what I like. You must be inline for a government job. The rightys in control seem to want to tell the whole country what they like. Or is that should like?
Oh and as for Rush, the only thing he can bite is another tub of oxy. :D

[Show Me the Wire]

ljb:

Give Tom credit he is learning, how to act, from your side LOL.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

perception is reality

[Lefty]

Tom, congrats on the large refund. Hmm, I am not rich so I can't explain why my wife and I also getting largest refund of our lives, too. That's stange since Bush tax cuts only help the rich. Very strange.

Lin, you sound like that guy that wrote a book back during the Reagan adm. I think it was called "The Coming Depression Of The 90's" Something like that. Boy, did he miss the bullseye. Maggie's Drawers for him, and I think, for you too.

[ljb]

Lefty said
"Tom, congrats on the large refund. Hmm, I am not rich so I can't explain why my wife and I also getting largest refund of our lives, too. That's stange since Bush tax cuts only help the rich. Very strange.
"
Lefty any tax advisor with a half a brain would tell you "Large refunds are stupid, why loan the money to the government for a year interest free?" Oh and you can give the government more money next year by increasing your withholding or making quarterly payments, if a large refund is your thrill.
Also note my post of recent AP poll. Most Americans feel they are paying more in taxes when you include federal, state and local taxes.

[Lefty]

lbj, you always try to change the parameters of the argument when you can't win. The point is: Tax cuts do not only benefit the rich. TAX CUTS BENEFIT EVERYONE THAT PAY TAXES.
I don't pay State taxes. I live in NV, so there.

[cj]

Originally posted by ljb

Lefty any tax advisor with a half a brain would tell you "Large refunds are stupid, why loan the money to the government for a year interest free?"

Yes, but if you don't pay enough in, the IRS will charge you interest. When there are tax cuts, its better safe than sorry. If you reduce your withholding and wind up not paying enough, you can be charged. After seeing this year's refund, that is the time to adjust withholdings.

[ljb]

Lefty,
Today I mailed a check to the federal government. I am proud to support my government and the troops fighting for us in Iraq.

[Lefty]

lbj, god for you. I don't understand the relevance of your statement but i'm glad you support the troops.

[JustRalph]

CJ.........that Avatar is starting to freak me out a little.......that is a long ways from "Glory Days" in the wink of a young girls eye....


you know what I mean?