PDA

View Full Version : NW Race Strategy?


traynor
04-08-2014, 10:18 PM
Anyone have any good strategies for NW races? Like Monticello or Lebanon (Miami)? Or Northfield? Or the smaller Canadian tracks? With the "conventional" approach of evaluating how well an entry performed recently, most of these races are complete passes. If figuring such races is tough for someone with experience, it must be even more so for those with less experience. That usually translates to profit--for anyone willing to do a bit more work than scanning the last couple of races for various indicators of possible improved (improving) form.

Any ideas? Any successful strategies you would be willing to share?

cmp92
04-08-2014, 11:13 PM
Anyone have any good strategies for NW races? Like Monticello or Lebanon (Miami)? Or Northfield? Or the smaller Canadian tracks? With the "conventional" approach of evaluating how well an entry performed recently, most of these races are complete passes. If figuring such races is tough for someone with experience, it must be even more so for those with less experience. That usually translates to profit--for anyone willing to do a bit more work than scanning the last couple of races for various indicators of possible improved (improving) form.

Any ideas? Any successful strategies you would be willing to share?
I suppose paying attention to driver's choice is important. If a driver gets his pick of a few horses, maybe he might have some more insight than the bettor. Of course, his guess might be as good as ours. In general, I'd steer clear of the outside posts on half mile tracks. Bad posts and struggling horses isn't a good mix.

badcompany
04-08-2014, 11:59 PM
I put a greater premium on post position as the likely hood of a horse actually passing another is slim.

LottaKash
04-09-2014, 12:41 AM
While there are a number of types of NW;s races sporting all sorts of possible scenarios, one particular type that I like is a nw1 or 2 race with a bunch of proven losers, with a horse that is coming off of a good qualifier and especially off of a second and succeeding good qualifier....And, in that qualifier especially the most recent one, the horse shows a somewhat competitive running line running at least even from the stretch call to the line, and shows at the least, a last half that is at least as fast, if not faster,(fastest of all is best) than any of the other of the contestants in that race...And is especially strong, if the "middle half" is at least as good as the following fast(est) last half off of the at same qualie....This takes on added significance especially if the trainer was on the first qualifier or even the 2d qualie, and/ or a more capable driver (not necessarily one of the best, but capable) is now on the horse....

Two qualifiers in a row shows serious raceday intention, and when it is combined with a good and fast last half and especially when combined with a preceeding fast middle half as well, and that factor alone, just may be the "CRACKDOWN BEFORE THE FACT- RACE", and it just may be a "GO"at first asking in that regard...In this type of scenario I also like to see, regardless of the final odds, "A Great Big Tickle", somewhere, in the Board Voting Process...

Also, a horse that wins in a NW's race even 1, 2 3, 4, 5 racesLT, and stays in that same class, also stands a very good chance to repeat....There are many repeat winners in this category of races, than in many other types of races when looking for repeaters, and often at generous and surprisingly good pays at times...

LottaKash
04-09-2014, 01:49 AM
Oh, I also forgot to mention this, but it is KEY, to this Angle....You must adjust the middle and last halfs by adding or subtracting "lengths gained or lost" during those considered halfs....

To summarize again, a horse that is making his comeback or seasonal debut, if he has an "adjusted" last half and especially combined with an adjusted Middle half, that is at least as good if not better than all the other horses, than this shows this horse "can keep up" & "finish well"....and well to be considered...
==========================

Another angle that I like is for races for 3yo's....Just as Beyer gives credit for a horse that has just turned 3, to improve from his 2yo highs, in the T-breds, I also do too....

This only works well for the first start or two for the just turned 3yo, after that, well, nothing....Take a horses top TM Speed rating that is showing on the listed past performances and just "ADD 10-points" to that highest SR that is showing.....That is all there is to this Angle....Often in the early season you can latch onto a horse that may well be better than the rest of the field in some scenarios, just by projecting the 10-point speed improvement....


Of course, the horse must have been layed off from this 2yo season for a good while, the point being that the horse is well rested and has been given time to mature and fill out, since the last start...

mrroyboy
04-09-2014, 12:07 PM
In these types of races, young lightly race horses have the edge. First look for horses who have been racing well in higher class races but have only won 1 race or whatever the minimum. Then look for horses who are very consistant at smaller tracks but have won less than the cutoff amount Winners over 40000 ineligible etc.

Ray2000
04-09-2014, 03:10 PM
My 2¢ FWIW

First if the conditions are "NW x, Claiming Condition" then Pass, these horses don't want to win because there's nowhere to go. They want to stay in this class forever.

Second, if it's NW x, with an earnings cap, and the cap is strange like "NW L5 Or 12,525 LT"
watch out for the Race Secretary trying to fill a card with a classier horse.

mrroyboy
04-09-2014, 04:00 PM
Right Ray
Most of the time these are shit races anyway so passing might be the best overall strategy.

traynor
04-09-2014, 07:56 PM
Some great ideas and food for thought! Thanks!

I am going to concentrate on this type of race for awhile, and see what I can find. I will post anything interesting. Again, thanks for the input.

imofe
04-09-2014, 08:43 PM
At one time, I hated NM of 1 races. Now they are some of my favorite races. If a horse on a big track ( 7/8 or mile) has less than 5 starts look at the back half of all the horses in the race. Many times the drivers will sit on these young horses and let them run about the last 3/8 of a mile. If you see a horse that is a second or so better in the back half (adjust for lengths) AND the horse gained or at least stayed even in lengths behind from the half to the finish you have something. There is a very good chance the driver will be more aggressive today. It is important that they do not lose a lot of ground from the half to the finish or they could just be getting dragged along in a fast mile. On paper if the horse finishes in what looks like an even effort, there will be some value. I cashed quite a few of these at big tracks in 2013.

mrroyboy
04-09-2014, 09:29 PM
Very interesting stuff. Thanks Guys

traynor
04-10-2014, 08:33 PM
I have doing this for a long time. In reading the postings on this thread, it struck me that I completely ignore qualifying races--and yet others seem to find useful information in them. In doing a bit of introspection to determine the cause, the only reason I can think of is that the "recognized experts" way back when all seemed of the opinion that qualifiers were more misleading than informational, and were best ignored.

I realize now that I "internalized" that view without ever really questioning it. I literally do not look at qualifying races. The software apps I use completely ignore them. I completely ignore them.

The "logic" is that the purpose of a qualifying race is to determine if a horse can stay flat for the mile, and very little else. It may be used as a workout, or whatever else, but the basic purpose is not competition. The question is, do you find qualifying races significant, meaningful, informative? And if so, in what way?

mrroyboy
04-10-2014, 09:03 PM
Qualifying races used to be just for keeping horses flat etc but now trainers use them more for conditioning. I guess you have to analyize them .

imofe
04-10-2014, 09:05 PM
Yes. Qualifying races are important. Years back nobody seemed to win in their first start back. Not true anymore. Pay particular attention as to who is driving in the Q. Let's say you see a driver qualify a horse and he has never been on the horse in all of the previous lines. Why would this driver all of a sudden be up in the Q? Now you see a much improved effort compared to poor lines months back when the horse was last active. Might be the trainer figured something out. Might even be a trainer change or a private purchase. These horses can fire fresh. Especially young horses that can improve drastically from start to start.

RaceTrackDaddy
04-10-2014, 11:50 PM
Think I will add my two cents to this once I see the thread using qualifiers. I am firm believer in watching qualifiers. Back before they tore down the Meadows for the Meadows Casino (prior to 2008) I attended all qualifiers and charted the race myself. Each horse had a column for equipment, driver, bike, bit, bell boots, burr pole, etc. I also charted whether the horse was urged or being held tight with the reins at the wire. Of course the obvious time and position at the finish.

What I found were live horse to be at first asking when racing for money. I even color coded them, red being top, blue are ones to watch and black are regular. Think I still have some on file..let me see if I can find it.

Ok, attached is a captured picture of one from April 2004....if anyone is serious about getting an advantage in this sport, it is the one thing most people do not even think of doing let alone being able to it. They call people like me, clockers.

RaceTrackDaddy
04-11-2014, 11:29 AM
I wanted to add a little more to the above post. Once I had this info I recorded it into a database so that when they showed up on race day I had the printed info with me. In that database I clocked their last warm-up trips for their last 3/8 plus if they used a jog cart or race bike.

You would not believe the horses that I caught that went under the radar screen of most people.

The art of clocking has always been a good way to find a great paying horse. But the clock alone does not tell the whole story as you need the history of that horse, equipment, qualifiers, etc.

The story I can relate where all things came into one nice payday for my mom was back some years ago when we heard of a first starter and looked well within himself in the qualifier. I had my mother at home betting on Call-A-Bet as she likes playing superfectas while I am more of a exacta player.

Anyway, Leo Havey was warming up Ivanaclue and he drew the 8 hole that day. He warmed up faster than he ever did and Leo went to a different bit, think it was an overcheck but it has been so many years. Anyway, I called my mom and told her about the fast warm-up by Leo's horse.

As fate would have it that night, there was a carryover from the first race super (they had only two per day then). Seems Leo had a long-shot in that race that won and paid over sixty bucks for the win.

In the race I noticed that the Ivanaclue and the first time starter exacta was paying over $300 each way. So I ended up boxing them for $10.

They finished one two with Leo's horse just tiring late. The odds were like 10/1 and 50/1. I was expecting at least $300 for the ticket but some tellers at the mutual windows got wind of what was I bet and bet themselves lowering the price down to less than $150.

I was pissed off to say the least so I called my mom (I can see the in-house tv video of the toteboard) who was waiting for the results to be posted up as the show position needed a photo to determine the order of finish.

Mom told me what she had bet. She bet $2 straight on the first starter first, Leo's horse second and then 1 and then 5.

It came in as she bet it...cold super over $7,800. When she called in to get the balance she was surprised that it had a little over 5k in it. She did not know about the 28 percent withholding on the winnings (IRS).

There are many other stories that I can tell ya but that one is the most memorable for me.

LottaKash
04-11-2014, 11:37 AM
There are many other stories that I can tell ya but that one is the most memorable for me.

RTD, I for one love your old stories about this Game of Ours....Just thought I would say that, just so you know that you are not wasting your time with them...

Got more ?....Would love to hear of them...

RaceTrackDaddy
04-11-2014, 12:07 PM
Thank you Kash
I really miss going to the track. Seems the older I get, the more I am inclined to watch and bet them from home. I miss a lot by not being there.

On the good side is that the food is cheaper and so is the booze.

Since the Meadows now has a different man in charge as the last one passed away, they decided to race on Saturdays during the triple crown. They will race during the afternoon adjusting their races to fit into the down time between races at the Triple Crown track. To me, I think this is one of the best moves the Meadows ever did. In past years, before the tore the old place down for the casino, they raced after the completion of the big race. Most of the flat players left and did not even watch a harness race.

With the current plans and if the weather cooperates, there will be people coming outside the simulcast room and hopefully be taken in by the view of harness racing.

Personally I love harness racing, flat racing and greyhound racing. Each has their good and bad aspects to it but you take it as a given. I would love to see Pennsylvania legalize betting on greyhound racing as it currently is not. We drive 45 miles to Wheeling to bet the puppies when I could stay home and bet them as easy as I bet the Meadows.

The trouble is that our political whores in Harrisburg are bought out by the Marcellus industry, the gaming industry so that they will not even address a reduction in the retention rate or the way they define the net pool of wagers.

A simple applying the retention rate to the pool that is left over after refunding the wagers would be a good start. Oh well, seeing how they love to pollute our air, water and land with their gas drilling, I won't hold my breath for those in Harrisburg to do something for the common guy. But they will show up at my house when they want me to vote in November.

LottaKash
04-11-2014, 01:06 PM
Thank you Kash
I really miss going to the track. Seems the older I get, the more I am inclined to watch and bet them from home. I miss a lot by not being there.

On the good side is that the food is cheaper and so is the booze.



I hear ya RTD...I miss the "LIVE" racing too, and the smell of fresh horse plops and linament, and the clunk of the hooves....

Living here in N.Central, Fl is really nice, but there is no real racing anywhere nearby, especially Harness....We have an OTB-like facility in Ocala, and it is a good one....It is called OBS (Ocala Breeder Sales), and there is a track on the property, but they don't do any pari-mutuel racing, only some t-bred exhibitions at times, which I am not in touch with at all....Still, I try to get into the crowd buzz at Horse-Auction times of the year, a beehive of activity with people coming from all parts of the globe to buy some Florida breds...But no Harness Racing in sight...So, I am stuck at home, which isn't necessarily a bad thing tho....You know the convenience of it all....Thank goodness for the Net...

I love The Meadows, it is the perfect track for my style of play, and it is still my best track....Been to oh so many racetracks in my lifetime but never to The Meadows, I regret that somewhat...

RaceTrackDaddy
04-11-2014, 01:16 PM
Kash
If you ever get a chance to come up to the Meadows in person, drop me a line as I live like 6 miles from the place but get there so seldom. Hate to admit it, I go to the Isle of Wheeling for the puppies a couple times a month and can count my fingers the times I've been to the Meadows the last three years on one hand. That will change this year with their racing with the Triple Crown starting on the first Saturday in May.

Adios week is the last week in July. To see the best in Pa breds and some of the best three year old pacers, that week is best.

rtd

LottaKash
04-11-2014, 03:03 PM
Kash
If you ever get a chance to come up to the Meadows in person, drop me a line as I live like 6 miles from the place but get there so seldom. Hate to admit it, I go to the Isle of Wheeling for the puppies a couple times a month and can count my fingers the times I've been to the Meadows the last three years on one hand. That will change this year with their racing with the Triple Crown starting on the first Saturday in May.

Adios week is the last week in July. To see the best in Pa breds and some of the best three year old pacers, that week is best.

rtd

RTD, thanks for the invite, if & when I ever get back up thataway, I will surely look you up....We can suck up some suds and yell at our horses to go faster, and maybe even cuss them out when they didn't do what we wanted them to do..haha....:jump:

And again, I sorely miss the clip clop the horses make when they are scoring down or coming home....As only a Harness Horse can make those particular sounds when they are on the track..:cool:

RaceTrackDaddy
04-11-2014, 03:24 PM
Kash
One of the most valuable tools when watching the warm ups of the trotters is that clip clop sounds. It is the cadence that will indicate if the horse is trotting on all fours or is off a little, hitting then in two's or three's.

If anyone has never heard of "Hitting On All Fours" it is the cadence that you can actually hear all four hooves hitting and sounds like, 'one, two, three, four' the 'one, two, three, four". All four sounds are a little different so you can distinguished among them. When they cadence is one two, one two, they're off...or one two three...stay away from them.

You should get to the track early enough to watch warm ups and get towards the rail....after a time, it will come automatically to you and you will be able to pick it up by sight. The best gaited trotter in my lifetime that I saw in person was Money Maker. She was so fluid with her trot that she was almost running on stealth (almost silent running)..

Ray2000
04-11-2014, 05:43 PM
In 1978 at The Meadows I was standing at the rail and saw Speedy Somolli, (Howard Beissinger) go by in a warm up mile and never heard them coming. It was like a ghost.

I too miss those old times.....

mrroyboy
04-11-2014, 05:44 PM
I used to do that at Liberty Bell Park. Go right after work. Get there when the gates opened about 6 oclock. Park up front get the program and a roast beef sandwich at the stand then go to the paddock look for shoe changes etc then I would watch all the warm ups. Got some winners that way but mostly avoided losers. Remember these weren't the classiest horses in Harness Racing and you could see it. Many times the horses would be late scratches and I knew it in advance. The gold old days are gone.

traynor
04-11-2014, 10:52 PM
I was a big fan of Al Stanley back when he worked for Ford in Windsor. Clocking is conceptually fascinating, if one is willing to invest the immense amount of time needed to keep track of who is doing what--and realize that most of the data gathered is not (or will not be) especially useful.

RaceTrackDaddy
04-12-2014, 12:36 PM
I was a big fan of Al Stanley back when he worked for Ford in Windsor. Clocking is conceptually fascinating, if one is willing to invest the immense amount of time needed to keep track of who is doing what--and realize that most of the data gathered is not (or will not be) especially useful.
That is so true. It does take a lot of time. When I started clocking (after reading Stanley's Law) I placed all the data on index cards and filed them alphabetically. I had a couple of those grey tin containers with me when I was at the track along with a couple stop watches, a clipboard and all the paper I could carry. It was those index cards that soon became the database once the personal computers arrived. It made things a lot easier to research for different characteristics like sloppy track or track bias (I collected that data). I really believe it was this hobby that brought me to the online world a lot faster than I would have arrived otherwise.

mrroyboy
04-12-2014, 01:26 PM
Tray I didn't think you were that old. With your stats and stuff you have a young man's mind.

traynor
04-12-2014, 02:19 PM
That is so true. It does take a lot of time. When I started clocking (after reading Stanley's Law) I placed all the data on index cards and filed them alphabetically. I had a couple of those grey tin containers with me when I was at the track along with a couple stop watches, a clipboard and all the paper I could carry. It was those index cards that soon became the database once the personal computers arrived. It made things a lot easier to research for different characteristics like sloppy track or track bias (I collected that data). I really believe it was this hobby that brought me to the online world a lot faster than I would have arrived otherwise.

I know what you mean. I learned about programming and started programming computers by looking at the BASIC listing of the early Sartin pace programs. My first useful function was writing the code to allow minutes and seconds to be entered in the DRF format rather than being "converted" before entering them. It seemed barbaric to have to enter 1:10.2 as "70.4" to get the computer to crunch it correctly. Not to mention a complete lack of exception handlers that meant one could enter all the pacelines for three or four horses by hand, hit the Go button, and lose it all with a division by zero error.