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View Full Version : Gartman: get out of stocks


Valuist
04-08-2014, 11:03 AM
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101561878

Robert Goren
04-08-2014, 11:09 AM
About a week too late.

highnote
04-08-2014, 11:32 AM
The Zweig model says sell if the S&P hits $1804 -- that would be about a 4% decrease from a recent high.

Valuist
04-08-2014, 11:44 AM
About a week too late.

Not if we are moving to a secular bear market.

badcompany
04-08-2014, 12:02 PM
Not if we are moving to a secular bear market.

Way too early to make that call.

Some of us saw this well before the CNBC "experts."

The stocks that have had big pullbacks also had huge run ups beforehand.

Eg. Amazon. The stock price doubled in the last two years. So, the current pullback is not unusual. It's sucks when you have to sit through but that's what must be done, otherwise you end up chasing your tail.

Note the 200 day sma

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/032CA687-99FC-45C2-AF2F-DBF65260318A-1236-00000244C6B39A5F_zpsfd753495.jpg


http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/8CA7214A-938F-4E1B-8450-B21ED1912868-1236-00000244BB3AD46A_zpsad7a65f6.jpg

Valuist
04-08-2014, 01:23 PM
Way too early to make that call.

Some of us saw this well before the CNBC "experts."

The stocks that have had big pullbacks also had huge run ups beforehand.

Eg. Amazon. The stock price doubled in the last two years. So, the current pullback is not unusual. It's sucks when you have to sit through but that's what must be done, otherwise you end up chasing your tail.

Note the 200 day sma

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/032CA687-99FC-45C2-AF2F-DBF65260318A-1236-00000244C6B39A5F_zpsfd753495.jpg


http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/8CA7214A-938F-4E1B-8450-B21ED1912868-1236-00000244BB3AD46A_zpsad7a65f6.jpg

I did say IF. I don't believe in going all in, or pulling all one's money out at once from the market. But right now I'd be more inclined to sell than buy.

I do believe a secular bear market is coming in the not too distant future.

highnote
04-08-2014, 01:26 PM
I am in "hold" mode.

April is traditionally a week month.

RaceBookJoe
04-08-2014, 01:54 PM
Trading has been amazing the past few sessions. Last week had some lower vol moments, maybe because of that HFT story on 60min. VIPS and FSLR among many great moves today. Not sure if a secular rotation or not, but it could be. Things don't usually turn overnight for all of those " a week too late" people. The dotcom collapse basically started in 1998-99, didn't collapse until 2001. For swing traders : FSLR daily is a bullflag, $75 looks to be the breakout level. Currently only daytrading, but if that level breaks might take a swing/int position with $80 first target and $90 longer range. That's assuming no market collapse.

badcompany
04-08-2014, 02:37 PM
I did say IF. I don't believe in going all in, or pulling all one's money out at once from the market. But right now I'd be more inclined to sell than buy.

I do believe a secular bear market is coming in the not too distant future.

I'm talking about Gartman. He's just another Stock Market clown who makes a million calls then brags about the ones he got right while conveniently forgetting about the others.

How can anyone look at this chart and not see that the long term trend is up?

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/415CE191-7C0B-4C21-97D5-972C11D92DA4-1236-00000253D4E11D1B_zps6d505826.jpg

DJofSD
04-08-2014, 02:52 PM
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101561878
Really? Get out of stocks? Is that what Gartman said?

He said he was out of equities. Then he raised cautions about reversals.

The reversal month has not happened, yet.

Saratoga_Mike
04-08-2014, 03:06 PM
High yield credit spreads aren't showing any signs of stress. We could certainly see a decoupling, but I doubt it persists.

RaceBookJoe
04-08-2014, 03:23 PM
Always a good idea to look at how many stocks are participating in the upmove vs not participating. Currently, the NYSE BPI ( a p&f chart ) is on a sell signal but in a column of X's, but overall has been making lower lows for almost a year now. doesn't mean a crash is coming, just looking at the chart.

Valuist
04-08-2014, 03:50 PM
Really? Get out of stocks? Is that what Gartman said?

He said he was out of equities. Then he raised cautions about reversals.

The reversal month has not happened, yet.

I was just quoting the headline, which did say Gartman: get out of stocks.

Saratoga_Mike
04-08-2014, 03:56 PM
Gartman writes a newsletter and he's glib - I'd be careful following his advice. Of course one should never throw caution to the wind or completely dismiss technical red flags, imo.

lamboguy
04-08-2014, 05:14 PM
interesting action today on the bonds, dollar and gold. the 30 year bond looks strong as hell, the 10 year looks good too. the dollar got clobbered today and gold had a very anemic move up. gold still doesn't look like it wants to go topside yet.

highnote
04-08-2014, 05:34 PM
interesting action today on the bonds, dollar and gold. the 30 year bond looks strong as hell, the 10 year looks good too. the dollar got clobbered today and gold had a very anemic move up. gold still doesn't look like it wants to go topside yet.


When interest rates go down, bonds go up, right? So when you say today was good for bonds is that because they went up? Does that mean bond owners anticipate low rates will continue?

The old saying is "Low interest rates have long tails." Which means once rates go low, they tend to stay low.

Tape Reader
04-08-2014, 07:13 PM
For swing traders : FSLR daily is a bullflag, $75 looks to be the breakout level. Currently only daytrading, but if that level breaks might take a swing/int position with $80 first target and $90 longer range. That's assuming no market collapse.

Always appreciate your contributions. Do you have software that does pattern recognition (flag on FSLR)?

lamboguy
04-08-2014, 07:49 PM
When interest rates go down, bonds go up, right? So when you say today was good for bonds is that because they went up? Does that mean bond owners anticipate low rates will continue?

The old saying is "Low interest rates have long tails." Which means once rates go low, they tend to stay low.
yes that's right, but what got me is the 30 year bond had a great day, better than the 10 year.

my guess is there is something wrong with the job numbers that are being reported and they can't get the economy to inflate.

whodoyoulike
04-08-2014, 08:26 PM
Gartman writes a newsletter and he's glib - I'd be careful following his advice. Of course one should never throw caution to the wind or completely dismiss technical red flags, imo.

I've recently seen several of his calls to exit equities. I'm uncertain if he makes a call when it's okay to return but, apparently he does re-enter. I understand he's a big player associated with a major firm (maybe not??).

Does anyone know what his current record is this year? Is he up or down? He is interviewed frequently by CNBC.

RaceBookJoe
04-08-2014, 09:16 PM
Always appreciate your contributions. Do you have software that does pattern recognition (flag on FSLR)?

No software, just one of the regular charts I look at everyday, usually on a 1min chart for day trading. But happened to look at the daily chart and saw the pattern. I don't know if any software for finding them, but sites like Finviz I believe scans technical pattern. Not sure about flags but definately double tops/bottoms. Another one that comes with a few platforms is called Recognia

RaceBookJoe
04-08-2014, 09:19 PM
yes that's right, but what got me is the 30 year bond had a great day, better than the 10 year.

my guess is there is something wrong with the job numbers that are being reported and they can't get the economy to inflate.

The problem with the jobs number is that the majority of the jobs created are crap paying service sector types.

Tape Reader
04-08-2014, 09:37 PM
No software, just one of the regular charts I look at everyday, usually on a 1min chart for day trading. But happened to look at the daily chart and saw the pattern. I don't know if any software for finding them, but sites like Finviz I believe scans technical pattern. Not sure about flags but definately double tops/bottoms. Another one that comes with a few platforms is called Recognia

Thanks. Good stuff as always.

RaceBookJoe
04-08-2014, 10:02 PM
Thanks. Good stuff as always.

No prob, Finviz is a screener not a scanner. Just go to finviz.com , click on Screener, then Technical, then Patterns, and there are about 20 different patterns to choose from.

Valuist
04-09-2014, 01:08 PM
I've recently seen several of his calls to exit equities. I'm uncertain if he makes a call when it's okay to return but, apparently he does re-enter. I understand he's a big player associated with a major firm (maybe not??).

Does anyone know what his current record is this year? Is he up or down? He is interviewed frequently by CNBC.

It's like TVG and their Pic 4 tickets. There's a little bit of accountability for the Fast Money regulars (not a lot) but none for the guests.

PaceAdvantage
04-09-2014, 01:23 PM
I thought Gartman was telling people only a few days earlier to continue going long in the markets...but then he had an epiphany late Friday morning...I believe between 11:00am and 11:15am...a fifteen minute period where he said he saw the everything turn like he's never seen before:

Friday morning I came back from the gym, and I was very comfortable: I owned aluminum, I owned coal, I owned money-center banks. Then between 11 a.m. and 11:15 a.m. it was as if they flipped the switch. Everything changed: stocks changed, bonds changed, gold changed, currency changed the whole world switched, recalled Gartman.Pretty wild quote...

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/04/08/dennis-gartman-scared-and-getting-out-of-stocks-for-now/

whodoyoulike
04-09-2014, 02:06 PM
But, do you think he actually goes all in or all out of the markets as he advocates? If not, he's not being very credible.

DJofSD
04-09-2014, 02:18 PM
But, do you think he actually goes all in or all out of the markets as he advocates? If not, he's not being very credible.
Correct me if I'm wrong: I believe he was strictly referring to his own trading account.

So, do I believe him when he says he's out of equities? Yes, I do.

Do I have any proof he's telling the truth? No, I don't.

But more importantly, what value is there when he makes this kind of move and then comes on air one trading day after he's made that move? And, when he changes his mind, how and when will you know it? As Dennis has stated many times, he is not a market timer, he leaves that to other people smarter than himself.

Additionally, his stock and trade is commodities. He likes to own things which when dropped on your foot, it will hurt. That does not mean he knows nothing about the equities market, but, I would tend to put more credence in his opinions about commodities over the rest of the market.

whodoyoulike
04-09-2014, 03:04 PM
Thanks, I recalled someone saying he writes a newsletter. I wasn't aware he was referring only to his personal portfolio.

DJofSD
04-09-2014, 03:07 PM
Thanks, I recalled someone saying he writes a newsletter. I wasn't aware he was referring only to his personal portfolio.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41480083

badcompany
04-09-2014, 04:54 PM
Gartman: " Did I say out? I meant to say in!" :liar:

RaceBookJoe
04-09-2014, 06:28 PM
Gartman: " Did I say out? I meant to say in!" :liar:

haha. Another potential swing I am putting on the radar( a year late but oh well haha ) is HAR, will leg in slow, more on the range breakout.

Saratoga_Mike
04-09-2014, 06:31 PM
I thought Gartman was telling people only a few days earlier to continue going long in the markets...but then he had an epiphany late Friday morning...I believe between 11:00am and 11:15am...a fifteen minute period where he said he saw the everything turn like he's never seen before:

Pretty wild quote...

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/04/08/dennis-gartman-scared-and-getting-out-of-stocks-for-now/

He could be right, but his comments on Friday's mkt action were way over the top. Friday wasn't anything compared to some days we've experienced over the past 7 or 8 yrs.

RaceBookJoe
04-10-2014, 06:57 PM
Big move down today, midday approx had decent bounce...great trading moves. Best advice as always, trade what you see not what you think. I had a buddy tell me after market close that it was time to go long again...told him make sure next res break holds before going all in, haven't talked to him today yet. I had my /ES price alerts set premarket at 1860 and 1867, higher one triggered but couldn't hold, turned into amazing short. My /NQ alerts were 3580,3590 if I remember off hand, gave great short also. Good luck trading tomorrow.

Valuist
04-10-2014, 11:16 PM
Gartman was a little more specific today, saying stay out of stocks for at least a month.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101574024

Valuist
04-11-2014, 11:02 AM
I know this is redboarding, but I've been happy for the past couple months shorting TWTR. It seemingly goes down every day, regardless of what the market does. I guess the lockup expires in early May. I'm thinking that will mark the bottom for TWTR.

RaceBookJoe
04-11-2014, 03:56 PM
I know this is redboarding, but I've been happy for the past couple months shorting TWTR. It seemingly goes down every day, regardless of what the market does. I guess the lockup expires in early May. I'm thinking that will mark the bottom for TWTR.

TWTR been a great short. Some great moves today again. Just grabbed $2 on IACI short after about the same on the long side.

highnote
04-21-2014, 08:10 PM
Gartman says he's back in stocks.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101600036?__source=yahoo%257cfinance%257cheadline% 257cheadline%257cstory&par=yahoo&doc=101600036%257cDennis+Gartman+says+he%27s+

whodoyoulike
04-21-2014, 08:44 PM
Aren't these types of warning calls expensive to investors? I can see to lighten up by 10 - 30%, then subsequently make recommendations to increase or reduce your portfolio holdings. Is he trying to become known as a SEER on market calls? I'm afraid one of these times he's going to be correct and then what's he going to say.

Tape Reader
04-21-2014, 09:08 PM
This brings to mind:

The late Joe Granville. IMO, a pretty good technician.

lamboguy
04-21-2014, 09:18 PM
This brings to mind:

The late Joe Granville. IMO, a pretty good technician.i didn't know he died. he had some type of system that was called on balance.

i liked the guy that has been playing the stock Valence forever too, Don Wolanchuk. he is always bullish and thank god he's still alive

DJofSD
04-21-2014, 09:32 PM
Gartman says he's back in stocks.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101600036?__source=yahoo%257cfinance%257cheadline% 257cheadline%257cstory&par=yahoo&doc=101600036%257cDennis+Gartman+says+he%27s+
"Pleasantly long."

Tape Reader
04-21-2014, 09:45 PM
i didn't know he died. he had some type of system that was called on balance.

From memory it was called on balance volume. Joe supposedly jumped off the throne when looking at the black and white tiles, and figured he could assign upticks and downticks this way. Again, this is from memory.

He was a showman like no one else. Headline press: (market was on a precipice) "Its Joe Granville against the Ayatollah..."

whodoyoulike
04-21-2014, 11:04 PM
Wasn't Granville pretty much a bear? Similarly, calling for market collapses every few months or years? I think he made one good call and tried to chase that fleeting fame.

badcompany
04-22-2014, 01:05 AM
I don't know if it still exists, but there used to be a Sportsbetting scam where the scammer would send out a "free" pick to 32 people, and then send out the other side of the pick to 32 other people. Whichever pick won, the scammer would send another pick to 16 people and 16 of the other side to the others.

The scammer would do this 3 times, then try to get the people who happened to get three winners to pay for a forth pick.

The financial media does the same thing with "gurus" in order to maintain interest in the market. With all the experts giving their opinions on the market and the limited number of things the overall market can do, someone is gonna be hot, and that person becomes the guru de jour, until he gets cold.

PaceAdvantage
04-22-2014, 02:51 AM
Gartman says he's back in stocks.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101600036?__source=yahoo%257cfinance%257cheadline% 257cheadline%257cstory&par=yahoo&doc=101600036%257cDennis+Gartman+says+he%27s+Ridic ulous.

Now you know a crash is coming sooner rather than later with this guy giving calls like this...

The VIX looks like it wants to again see if it can head down to 12...

RaceBookJoe
04-22-2014, 09:53 AM
Gartman says he's back in stocks.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101600036?__source=yahoo%257cfinance%257cheadline% 257cheadline%257cstory&par=yahoo&doc=101600036%257cDennis+Gartman+says+he%27s+

Its called flexibility haha. Some big early gappers so far today...NFLX,AGN,VRX. should all be active today. New ipo WB has been a decent trading stock also.

RaceBookJoe
04-22-2014, 09:55 AM
From memory it was called on balance volume. Joe supposedly jumped off the throne when looking at the black and white tiles, and figured he could assign upticks and downticks this way. Again, this is from memory.

He was a showman like no one else. Headline press: (market was on a precipice) "Its Joe Granville against the Ayatollah..."

On Balance Volume is still fairly popular, most platforms have it as a study/indicator.

badcompany
04-22-2014, 10:05 AM
I went short on SLV for an intermediate term trade using the higher of the 10/20 SMA as a stop.

Looks like the metal rally was a dead cat bounce.

http://i95.photobucket.com/albums/l142/thinlizzy21/dadc634f290fcd3df4e4dc975d8de48d_zpscbdc289e.jpg

badcompany
04-22-2014, 10:08 AM
Its called flexibility haha. Some big early gappers so far today...NFLX,AGN,VRX. should all be active today. New ipo WB has been a decent trading stock also.

GILD is reporting earnings after the close. Should be a mover, today.

I have it as long term holding. It has gotten wrecked, lately. I'm hoping it was just a sharp shakeout.

1st time lasix
04-22-2014, 10:24 AM
In Early April your boy Gartman says to get out of stocks....by April 22nd is plesantly " long "....and wants to go agressively long. Really? You have to be a moron to listen to him.

DJofSD
04-22-2014, 10:59 AM
No, you're never a moron to listen. But you might be one if you decide to follow his lead especially many trading days later.

RaceBookJoe
04-22-2014, 11:42 AM
Good traders change when conditions scream "change". Market did come down since beginning of April, about midway it started back up. Being successful is all about being flexible. The funny thing about listening/taking advice from a "guru" is unless you know what positions they are in, what hedges they have going on, and what timeframe they are working on...its useless to trade/invest by them simply saying "im short" or "im long".

whodoyoulike
04-23-2014, 01:50 AM
Additional info, ...

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/04/22/dennis-gartman-goes-from-scared-to-pleasantly-bullish-on-stocks/



One criticism is that Gartman seems to dart so fast in and out of the market and is so public with it, which can be maddening for average investors trying to get a grip, though he maintains that hes not changing his calls on a daily basis, but rather tries to stick to them for a few weeks. What is he sure about? Its not whether this selling spree is done, but rather that hell miss the end by about six months. Im not smart enough to get out ahead of it, he says


I'm wondering if someone is reading PaceAdvantage.com. They're calling us average.

highnote
04-23-2014, 02:09 AM
Ridiculous.

Now you know a crash is coming sooner rather than later with this guy giving calls like this...

The VIX looks like it wants to again see if it can head down to 12...


I have been long since March of 2009. I have only gotten out of stocks once since then and it was a mistake.

I'm still long now and after today's action I see no reason to move out of stocks.

The VIX at 13 seems like a good thing -- low volatility. Now, if you are an options trader maybe you like volatility. I have no preference. I trade according to the way I interpret the data. Right now I interpret the data to be signaling that owning stocks is the best way to invest. If there was more volatility there would be more premium in options and I would probably sell covered calls on the stocks I own. Right now, I have a hard time getting good prices for the options I would like to sell.

That's my view. Next week I might pull a Gartman and sell everything.

PaceAdvantage
04-23-2014, 03:06 AM
I've already stated my opinion on the VIX and the current range it's been stuck in since December 2012. If it hits 12 on this current VIX downswing, you can count on the market turning back down in the next month or so as the VIX bounces yet again off of the 12 number.

If the VIX turns back up WITHOUT first hitting 12 (and it has still YET to hit 12 which continues to represent a break of pattern in force since 12/2012), it is my prediction that the REAL CRASH (not just another petty retracement that some like to call a crash) will occur in the proceeding 30-60 days...surging past VIX 22-23 will be the clear alarm bell...

RaceBookJoe
04-23-2014, 09:57 AM
I've already stated my opinion on the VIX and the current range it's been stuck in since December 2012. If it hits 12 on this current VIX downswing, you can count on the market turning back down in the next month or so as the VIX bounces yet again off of the 12 number.

If the VIX turns back up WITHOUT hitting 12 (and it has still YET to hit 12 which would be a major break of pattern), it is my prediction that the REAL CRASH (not this another petty retracement people have been calling a crash) will occur in the proceeding 30-60 days...surging past VIX 22-23 will be clear alarm bell...

Reminds me of that old market saying " when the VIX is low look out below "

Tape Reader
05-22-2014, 02:28 PM
Reminds me of that old market saying " when the VIX is low look out below "

VIX at 11.68. New low.

highnote
05-22-2014, 02:34 PM
VIX at 11.68. New low.


Maybe a cyclical low, but not sure about a new low. 11.30 March 2013.