California Chrome's odds?

[Izzy2742]

In the past ten years, the average odds of the Kentucky Derby favorite has been 4.44

They have won 4/10 runnings. The worst finish was 18/19 in 2009 (Friesan Fire)

The shortest odds was 2-1 (Big Brown), the longest 6-1 (Lookin At Lucky)

The question is, assuming Califronia Chrome is the post-time favorite, what do you think his post-time odds will be? What would you consider "fair" odds?

Please note the above facts are only from the last ten KDs.

[Stillriledup]

It depends on how he trains over the track, how he looks in the mornings leading up to the race, the post draw and whatnut.

If all goes well, and the clockers love him and the reports are that he's thriving, maybe 7-2 or 4-1. Hard to see any horse in a 20 horse field that's under 7-2.

[goatchaser]

It depends on who gets the most feel good story on Derby Day TV. Which I must say Totally ruins the KTY Derby coverage for me. I'm like why is this all about the people? Their sad story. Honestly..I just don't care. Show the Damn race!!

[lamboguy]

we still have a few more prep races to be run, if CALIFORNIA CHROME draws post position #10 he will be between 8/5-2/1. if he draws the rail he would be 4-1 or more.

[Robert Goren]

I think the bias in betting against west coast horses coming east will keep at 7/2 or higher. If he had ran this way in Florida, he would be 5/2. IMO

[DeltaLover]

Looking elsewhere!

I really do not think CC deserves to be the favorite. SAD was a joke especially if you consider the fact that he was running against a few Maidens! His pedigree seems to be on the weak side and more important he has already peaked his form for the year.

I hope the hype will keep on though as it will create some pretty good betting opportunities on other more difficult to spot horses as Wicked Strong was last Saturday!

[horses4courses]

He won't take much money from the NY, FLA areas that contribute much to the pools at CD.
There is, also, a strong school of thought questioning the validity of his races and numbers in California.
That will affect his popularity at the windows throughout the country.
I'll be surprised if he goes off less than 3-1.

[Greyfox]

California Chrome is obviously a very powerful running colt.

The fact that a California bred colt has not won the Kentucky Derby since Decidedly in 1964, that's 50 years, suggests that his final odds will definitely be higher than 5/2 on Derby Day.

[sbcaris]

How many Derby starters in the last 50 years have started in the Ky Derby?
If the percent of starters is equal to the percent of winners there would be no disadvantage?

[sbcaris]

What I meant was how many Derby starters in the last 50 years were bred in California? How many of these were actual contenders?

[Greyfox]

What I meant was how many Derby starters in the last 50 years were bred in California? How many of these were actual contenders?

I don't know.
California in 2012 had a foal crop of 1,600 according to the Jockey Club.
The U.S. total foal crop was 22,500 that year.
These figures are down since the 1900's when something like 40,000 foals were sired a year.
But let's suppose similar figures were true back to the 1960's we see that California produces approximately 7% of the thoroughbred population per year.
We might suspect then, and assuming 20 horse fields, over 50 years (which wasn't the case) that's 1000 runners, that California potentially could have contributed about 70 Cal bred horses over that time to the race.
Ah, but the sad truth is Cal bred runners are, in general, not seemingly as successful as Kentucky stock. So it is doubtful that 70 Cal bred runners made enough points to get into the Kentucky Derby over that period.
So the chances of a Cal bred getting to the Derby in the first place are seemingly lower.
The chances of a Cal bred winning it.....
Well this is the 140th edition of the Kentucky Derby.
From what I can determine California has produced 4 winners, Decidedly being the last and Morvich being the first.
That's 4 out of 139 contests, which figures out to be about 2.87%.

Of course California Chrome might have an excellent chance of winning it.
He's beaten a lot of odds against him being there in the first place having been sired in California.
But I think when the gates close, even if he's the favorite, his odds should be higher than 5/2.
That's my suspicion anyways.

[Greyfox]

California Chrome is obviously a very powerful running colt.

The fact that a California bred colt has not won the Kentucky Derby since Decidedly in 1964, that's 50 years, suggests that his final odds will definitely be higher than 5/2 on Derby Day.


Correction:

My mistake. Decidedly won the 1962 Kentucky Derby.

Well that's 52 years then.

Greyfox

[sam i am]

CC was 3/5 against Hoppertunity and Candyboy, hoppertunity will take a lot of action come derby day and CC looked great has 2 great beyers... beat these horses at his leisure...I see 8/5, maybe...the better question is who is going to be 2nd choice? I don't know my key yet but it won't be 8/5 or under 5-1.

SIA

[horses4courses]

The week leading up to the Derby has much to do with odds fluctuations.
The "buzz" goes out on horses who appear to be training better than others.

Obviously, past performances and speed figures carry the most weight.
The public look at those the most, and bets accordingly.

Clocker buzz, also, can cause additional action.
I'm not saying it's the best way to find a Derby winner,
but it does get attention and money at the windows.

We won't know the "buzz" horse (or horses) until early Derby week.
If it happens to be California Chrome, he could go below 5-2.
Hard to see that happening, though, imo.

[Bullet Plane]

Well, in a ten horse field, he would be 8/5.

However, this will be a twenty horse field.

So, I double the 8/5. 1.6 X 2...

And get 3-1 for the Derby.

Because he is a California horse, doesn't really have the speed figures of a Big Brown or Smarty Jones... also might be seen as a speed horse in a race packed with speed...

I could see his getting as high as 4-1.

So, between 3-1 and 4-1.... somewhere in there...

[sbcaris]

Greyfox: I looked at all the horses in the Derby over the last 10 years from 2004-2013. The ONLY California breds to compete in the KY Derby in that period were Brother Derek in 2006, Bob Black Jack in 2008 and Rousing Sermon in 2012.

So in 7 of the last 10 years there were NO California bred runners.

In 2006 Brother Derek looked good and had a 108 Beyer fig in the SA Derby.

In 2008 Bob Black Jack had never run over a dirt track.

In 2012 Rousing Sermon finished 3rd in the Louisiana Derby with a Beyer figure in the 80s.

So in the last 10 years only one contender that was bred in California looked like a good chance.

If you multiply 3 starters every 10 years then you get only 15 starters that were Cal breds in the last 50 years.

How many starters were Cal Breds? Not too many. How many Cal bred starters were bonafide contenders? My guess-- not too many.

I am not saying that California Chrome is definitely going to win the Derby but I would not consider the fact that he is a Cal Bred to be held against him. Good horses can come from anywhere.

[sam i am]

who else is going to draw the money...I don't see a solid #2 in the odds...
example look at the futures.
he was the favorite ( not including field) tied @ 9-1 with Cairo prince (who finished 4th in FD) and might not make it into the derby.
next came Social inclusion @11-1 who lost and won't make it in.
then was Candy boy and Hoppertunity @ 13 and 15-1 and CC trounced both of them. then Samraat @ 17-1 who lost....I just don't see who is going to take any money from him...Tapiture was 15-1 in the futures if he runs lights out in ARK maybe he can be 2nd in the betting???

[Greyfox]

If you multiply 3 starters every 10 years then you get only 15 starters that were Cal breds in the last 50 years.

How many starters were Cal Breds? Not too many. How many Cal bred starters were bonafide contenders? My guess-- not too many.

I am not saying that California Chrome is definitely going to win the Derby but I would not consider the fact that he is a Cal Bred to be held against him. Good horses can come from anywhere.

Yes. Good horses can come from anywhere, but history has suggested that they don't.
How many were bred in Alaska or Idaho that won??
Northern Dancer was bred in Canada.
But I can't recall any others off the top of my head from there though since he won the Derby.

That fact is even if there were 15 starters from California over the last 50 years, none of them won.
Historically, California, for whatever reason, has not produced the best horses.
Maybe California Chrome will turn that around and give a huge boost to that State's encouragement of breeding.
But we're talking odds at the gate here.
When the public lays down their money, I don't think that they will make a Cal bred favorite in the Derby at odds lower than 5/2.

[sbcaris]

Greyfox: I think your right regarding the odds on California Chrome. Bodemeister in 2012 had the highest last out Beyer fig in the field with a 108. The next highest was Daddys nose Best with a 100 Beyer fig in his last. Despite the big difference, Bodemeister, who looked dominant went off as the 4-1 favorite. In recent times the favorite goes off at around 5-1 in the Derby.

[Greyfox]

Greyfox: I think your right regarding the odds on California Chrome. Bodemeister in 2012 had the highest last out Beyer fig in the field with a 108. The next highest was Daddys nose Best with a 100 Beyer fig in his last. Despite the big difference, Bodemeister, who looked dominant went off as the 4-1 favorite. In recent times the favorite goes off at around 5-1 in the Derby.

We agree on that.
California Chrome has looked very very impressive in his races and undoubtedly he is a good horse. No question about that.
However, with respect to odds, my guess is that he will be higher than 5/2 and maybe in the 3-1 to 4-1 range as the favorite.

[Smarty Cide]

if i can get 3-1 or greater he gets my 250 dollar win bet... the only thing thats stops him would be a bad trip

[fmolf]

if i can get 3-1 or greater he gets my 250 dollar win bet... the only thing thats stops him would be a bad trip
or the fact that he won't be running on the tarmac at Santa Anita!

[Smarty Cide]

dont be a hater... the sport needs a super star... he has that potential

[lamboguy]

if i can get 3-1 or greater he gets my 250 dollar win bet... the only thing thats stops him would be a bad tripwhat makes you think you will get 3-1 on that horse?

[horses4courses]

what makes you think you will get 3-1 on that horse?

I'd say he's very likely to get it.
He may be lower if the clockers drop their jaws at Churchill,
but they've been doing that about this colt for some time now.

Several UK bookmakers have him at 4-1 right now -
but you lose your bet if he scratches.

I just don't see east coasters rushing to bet him,
especially now since the Wood speed figure is higher than the SA Derby.

Don't forget, also, that if a horse wins one of the remaining trials with ease,
that particular horse will take money in the Derby.
People have short memories.

All things considered, California Chrome is unlikely to go off below 3-1.

[magwell]

Does anybody really care 4 weeks before this race if he will be 2-1 or 3-1 ? if you like him then bet him, if not dont, unbelievable :rolleyes:

[horses4courses]

Does anybody really care 4 weeks before this race if he will be 2-1 or 3-1 ? if you like him then bet him, if not dont, unbelievable :rolleyes:

Odds always intrigue me.
It's just a hypothetical exercise.

It means a lot more to Mike Battaglia.

[TMQ]

If Bayern runs the Ark Derby and wins he will take a lot of money away from California Chrome. I think people will be cautious on CC because he has only raced in Cali. Churchill has been anything but a speed track the last ten years, and I believe he needs a FAST track to run his best race.

[luisbe]

I'd say he's very likely to get it.
He may be lower if the clockers drop their jaws at Churchill,
but they've been doing that about this colt for some time now.

Several UK bookmakers have him at 4-1 right now -
but you lose your bet if he scratches.

I just don't see east coasters rushing to bet him,
especially now since the Wood speed figure is higher than the SA Derby.

Don't forget, also, that if a horse wins one of the remaining trials with ease,
that particular horse will take money in the Derby.
People have short memories.

All things considered, California Chrome is unlikely to go off below 3-1.
The clockers won't drop their jaws, he won't have a work on the track.
The Wood figure is lower than the SA Derby: 104-107
This horse will be THE story on NBC.
My feeling is the odds are going to be exactly like Big Brown.

[HuggingTheRail]

In my mind, the over/under is about 3.... I am going over at 3.3-1

[bks]

If Bayern runs the Ark Derby and wins he will take a lot of money away from California Chrome. I think people will be cautious on CC because he has only raced in Cali.

Maybe so. I sure hope so. Above 3-1 and it's empty-out time.

[SecretAgentMan]

Unless Bayern or Tapiture pull a 105 beyer &/or win by 5 to 10 lengths, Chrome will be between 2-1 & 5-2 as the closing derby favorite. I will be shocked if he's 4-1 or higher.

[horses4courses]

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/2014/04/12/chrome-still-appears-likely-kentucky-derby-favorite/7662599/

Judging by his comments in this article, the M/L on California Chrome should be higher than 3-1.
Mike Battaglia rates him as high as a 4, or 5-1 chance right now.

Can't say I disagree, because there are plenty of question marks.
I'm not sure, though, where he is coming from with his talk about training at CD up to the race.

True, there is always a steam horse coming from the clockers as they watch the works leading up to the race.
Some horses appear to like the track more than others during their works over the surface.
CC is not going to have a serious work there - just a leg stretch and a gallop or two.

Therefore, it's hard to assess his affinity for the CD surface - we won't really know until during the race.
If he looks bad galloping, then something else could be wrong - it's hardly the track.

The comment about another horse possibly being the favorite is a joke.
There's no way in hell that could be the case,
even if "that other horse" has a jet engine strapped to him during his works. ;)

[FrankieFigs]

I think he will be around 4/1 or 9/2. Too many people lately have been overbetting the longest shots on the board looking for the next Mine That Bird or Giacomo, making the odds on the favorite a little higher than in the past.

[BettinBilly]

I give him the Odds On Favorite. However, I believe we may be in for a surprise at the wire. Can't wait. Should be a great Derby Day!

[SecretAgentMan]

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/2014/04/12/chrome-still-appears-likely-kentucky-derby-favorite/7662599/

Judging by his comments in this article, the M/L on California Chrome should be higher than 3-1.
Mike Battaglia rates him as high as a 4, or 5-1 chance right now.

Can't say I disagree, because there are plenty of question marks.
I'm not sure, though, where he is coming from with his talk about training at CD up to the race.

True, there is always a steam horse coming from the clockers as they watch the works leading up to the race.
Some horses appear to like the track more than others during their works over the surface.
CC is not going to have a serious work there - just a leg stretch and a gallop or two.

Therefore, it's hard to assess his affinity for the CD surface - we won't really know until during the race.
If he looks bad galloping, then something else could be wrong - it's hardly the track.

The comment about another horse possibly being the favorite is a joke.
There's no way in hell that could be the case,
even if "that other horse" has a jet engine strapped to him during his works. ;)


If this holds true, I will love to get 4-1 or higher on Chrome, goodness sakes! Smarty Jones money all over again......

[Cratos]

If this holds true, I will love to get 4-1 or higher on Chrome, goodness sakes! Smarty Jones money all over again......

Why are you so excited? The median odds for Kentucky Derby winners for the last 66 years are nearly 9-2.

[TMQ]

The odds that have been released today have...
California Chrome 3-1
Wicked Strong 6-1
Cairo Prince 12-1
Hoppertunity 15-1
Samraat 16-1
Danza 18-1
Ride on Curlin 18-1

I see no way anyone gets above 3-1 on CC. :bang:

[redshift1]

The odds that have been released today have...
California Chrome 3-1
Wicked Strong 6-1
Cairo Prince 12-1
Hoppertunity 15-1
Samraat 16-1
Danza 18-1
Ride on Curlin 18-1

I see no way anyone gets above 3-1 on CC. :bang:


Post position one might do it.

[SecretAgentMan]

The odds that have been released today have...
California Chrome 3-1
Wicked Strong 6-1
Cairo Prince 12-1
Hoppertunity 15-1
Samraat 16-1
Danza 18-1
Ride on Curlin 18-1

I see no way anyone gets above 3-1 on CC. :bang:


If Chrome gets post 1 or 2, he will go off 4-1 or 9-2

[bgbootha]

Many tend to forget that we are dealing with a fair odds line that incorporates 20 horses.

I would like to see CC get pounded, while I think he is the best, its the freaking derby adn I won't bet on anyone under 3-1. Once you get 20 horses involved, who knows what.

But lets wait until post draw...lets see how the media handles the fact that he isn't going to workout at CD. Lets see how well others workout at CD and get some media boost.

I think we are likely looking at something rigth around 7/2 come post time.