California Chrome

[goatchaser]

Didn't get to watch it live as I worked Sat. But saw the race last night and it was kind of impressive. Great Article in the LA times today about the owners as well. Two owners....still work their reg Jobs. Bought a mare for 8,000 for breeding purposes. Some guy who found out what they did said anybody who buys that mare are Dumb Ass People. So their stable is called DAP stables. Waitress picked the name out of a hat for them at a Restaurant. It goes on and On. Seem like good down to earth people with a good sense of humor.

[lamboguy]

Didn't get to watch it live as I worked Sat. But saw the race last night and it was kind of impressive. Great Article in the LA times today about the owners as well. Two owners....still work their reg Jobs. Bought a mare for 8,000 for breeding purposes. Some guy who found out what they did said anybody who buys that mare are Dumb Ass People. So their stable is called DAP stables. Waitress picked the name out of a hat for them at a Restaurant. It goes on and On. Seem like good down to earth people with a good sense of humor.great story, i hope the horse wins the big dance.

[greengorilla]

It sure is and interesting story, but my common sense tells me he's got no shot in the derby. There are know real 3yr old racehorses in california anymore. The fields he's run against were cream puffed by the track, and the way the announcers have spun it is he's the great california hope, kind of similar to the great white hope in boxing. Unfortunately there connections will most likely need a telescope in the derby to find him down the lane.

[horses4courses]

It sure is and interesting story, but my common sense tells me he's got no shot in the derby. There are know real 3yr old racehorses in california anymore. The fields he's run against were cream puffed by the track, and the way the announcers have spun it is he's the great california hope, kind of similar to the great white hope in boxing. Unfortunately there connections will most likely need a telescope in the derby to find him down the lane.

Great to hear that type of thinking.
Everyone east of the Mississippi should listen to you.
No doubt, a good portion will, and bet against him.

That's right - no good horses ever come out of California.
Keep his odds high......please!!!

Let the East/West mud slinging begin!

[greengorilla]

Great to hear that type of thinking.
Everyone east of the Mississippi should listen to you.
No doubt, a good portion will, and bet against him.

That's right - no good horses ever come out of California.
Keep his odds high......please!!!

Let the East/West mud slinging begin!

Couldn't win a state bred stakes back in november, and ran against no real proven runners in his last 4 starts. All horses in both open stakes san felipe and santa anita derby were in house horses. There in house 3 yrolds are rats there. If he beat a real racehorse I could see him being a contender. and as someone eluded to in and other post, Santa anita had the track fast as lighting through the meet holding front speed bias. Which definitely contributed to his recent success. The party will soon be over when he faces the real monsters back east.

[picojim]

the real monsters back east.
Like who for example

[Leparoux]

"No shot in the Derby" :D :D :D

[horses4courses]

Couldn't win a state bred stakes back in november, and ran against no real proven runners in his last 4 starts. All horses in both open stakes san felipe and santa anita derby were in house horses. There in house 3 yrolds are rats there. If he beat a real racehorse I could see him being a contender. and as someone eluded to in and other post, Santa anita had the track fast as lighting through the meet holding front speed bias. Which definitely contributed to his recent success. The party will soon be over when he faces the real monsters back east.

Didn't Hoppertunity win the Rebel?
Tapiture is a pretty nice horse.

Real rats, alright.... :rolleyes:

Keep taking those tablets, okay?

[greengorilla]

Didn't Hoppertunity win the Rebel?
Tapiture is a pretty nice horse.

Real rats, alright.... :rolleyes:

Keep taking those tablets, okay?


Did you fail to understand the front speed bias comment?

[horses4courses]

Did you fail to understand the front speed bias comment?

He's up near the lead because he's a fast horse.
Does he need the lead to win races?
I very much doubt it.

[horses4courses]

great story, i hope the horse wins the big dance.

I'm with you, lambo

Probably won't have a red cent on him come Derby Day,
but I will be rooting for him.

Heard some good stories on futures bets in these woods on CC.
Valet attendant at local casino got a tip from one of the owners and decided to stick $100 on him @ 250-1.
A 90-something year old avid horse player I've known for years has $10 on him @ 100-1. I really hope they cash.
Wish I had gotten some of that myself!

He's a very nice horse - but we all know that doesn't get you the roses.

[taxicab]

I like the way the connections aren't afraid to run their horse.
He's been racing for close to a year now without a break.
He ran his first race in April.
He broke his Maiden in May.
CC won a stake back in July.
In that stakes race he beat a double bias that DMR had for the first 7 weeks of the meet.
Very few horses closed in the middle of DMR main track to win a race for all of July-Aug.
That might of been the tip off that CC was the goods.
He has 5 Stakes wins.
10 races under his belt.
In an era when barns are afraid to run their 3yo's, they race this guy every chance they get.
I think his heavy workload has given CC an edge on most other 3yo's.
When CC won the San Felipe it was the second fastest running in the 77 year history of the race.......and Espinoza wrapped him up after the 1/16th Pole.
And here's one I like:
When Affirmed won the SA Derby by 8 lengths he went 1:48 flat.
When Sunday Silence won the SA Derby by 11 he went 1:47.3.
CC won the SA Derby in 1:47.2(geared down).
Of course this horse can get beat in the Derby.
He can draw the rail.
The track could come up muddy.
He could get wiped out on the first turn.
But to proclaim he has no shot is foolish.

[elhelmete]

I like the way the connections aren't afraid to run their horse.
He's been racing for close to a year now without a break.
He ran his first race in April.
He broke his Maiden in May.
CC won a stake back in July.
In that stakes race he beat a double bias that DMR had for the first 7 weeks of the meet.
Very few horses closed in the middle of DMR main track to win a race for all of July-Aug.
That might of been the tip off that CC was the goods.
He has 5 Stakes wins.
10 races under his belt.
In an era when barns are afraid to run their 3yo's, they race this guy every chance they get.
I think his heavy work load has given CC an edge on most other 3yo's.
When CC won the San Felipe it was the second fastest running in the 77 year history of the race.......and Espinoza wrapped him up after the 1/16th Pole.
And here's one I like:
When Affirmed won the SA Derby by 8 lengths he went 1:48 flat.
When Sunday Silence won the SA Derby by 11 he went 1:47.3.
CC won the SA Derby in 1:47.2(geared down).
Of course this horse can get beat in the Derby.
He can draw the rail.
The track could come up muddy.
He could get wiped out on the first turn.
But to proclaim he has no shot is foolish.

Excellent summary. This guy built a pretty darn good foundation at 2.

[horses4courses]

I like the way the connections aren't afraid to run their horse.
He's been racing for close to a year now without a break.
He ran his first race in April.
He broke his Maiden in May.
CC won a stake back in July.
In that stakes race he beat a double bias that DMR had for the first 7 weeks of the meet.
Very few horses closed in the middle of DMR main track to win a race for all of July-Aug.
That might of been the tip off that CC was the goods.
He has 5 Stakes wins.
10 races under his belt.
In an era when barns are afraid to run their 3yo's, they race this guy every chance they get.
I think his heavy work load has given CC an edge on most other 3yo's.
When CC won the San Felipe it was the second fastest running in the 77 year history of the race.......and Espinoza wrapped him up after the 1/16th Pole.
And here's one I like:
When Affirmed won the SA Derby by 8 lengths he went 1:48 flat.
When Sunday Silence won the SA Derby by 11 he went 1:47.3.
CC won the SA Derby in 1:47.2(geared down).
Of course this horse can get beat in the Derby.
He can draw the rail.
The track could come up muddy.
He could get wiped out on the first turn.
But to proclaim he has no shot is foolish.

Well said.
This is a nice horse - there's no doubting that.

Two small asides.
(1) He didn't have to run in the SA Derby to make the gate at Churchill.

(2) You mentioned Sunday Silence. The horses he beat in the SA Derby?
Music Merci and Houston. I'm not sure they would have been within 6
lengths of CC on Saturday, either.

[greengorilla]

I like the way the connections aren't afraid to run their horse.
He's been racing for close to a year now without a break.
He ran his first race in April.
He broke his Maiden in May.
CC won a stake back in July.
In that stakes race he beat a double bias that DMR had for the first 7 weeks of the meet.
Very few horses closed in the middle of DMR main track to win a race for all of July-Aug.
That might of been the tip off that CC was the goods.
He has 5 Stakes wins.
10 races under his belt.
In an era when barns are afraid to run their 3yo's, they race this guy every chance they get.



I think his heavy workload has given CC an edge on most other 3yo's.
When CC won the San Felipe it was the second fastest running in the 77 year history of the race.......and Espinoza wrapped him up after the 1/16th Pole.
And here's one I like:
When Affirmed won the SA Derby by 8 lengths he went 1:48 flat.
When Sunday Silence won the SA Derby by 11 he went 1:47.3.
CC won the SA Derby in 1:47.2(geared down).
Of course this horse can get beat in the Derby.
He can draw the rail.
The track could come up muddy.
He could get wiped out on the first turn.
But to proclaim he has no shot is foolish.

I guess you don't comprehend that the track was lightning fast. In regard to the times you posted. Race 2 was won gate to wire by Storm Fighter, in a State bred nw1x 20000 optional and they went in 22.67 45.77 1.09.67 1.22.42 1.35.67. Thats smoking for that state bred condition. If that doesn't tell you the track was like concrete, and hence increased the speed number falsley, not to mention make it nearly impossible to close on the track.

[Stillriledup]

I guess you don't comprehend that the track was lightning fast. In regard to the times you posted. Race 2 was won gate to wire by Storm Fighter, in a State bred nw1x 20000 optional and they went in 22.67 45.77 1.09.67 1.22.42 1.35.67. Thats smoking for that state bred condition. If that doesn't tell you the track was like concrete, and hence increased the speed number falsley, not to mention make it nearly impossible to close on the track.

Before i hold a 'bias' against anyone, the question i ask myself is this. What horse on the card would have won and what horse would have lost if the track was "Fair' and not biased towards speed.

If Cal Chrome was a speed horse with no real quality, he wouldnt have won, he would have gotten run off his feet....horses don't win that easily and by that large of a margin just on a bias, you have to be pretty good to pull that off. And this bias wasnt as strong as the bias we saw on BC Friday last year.

[PaceAdvantage]

I guess you don't comprehend that the track was lightning fast. In regard to the times you posted. Race 2 was won gate to wire by Storm Fighter, in a State bred nw1x 20000 optional and they went in 22.67 45.77 1.09.67 1.22.42 1.35.67. Thats smoking for that state bred condition. If that doesn't tell you the track was like concrete, and hence increased the speed number falsley, not to mention make it nearly impossible to close on the track.A "concrete" racetrack will be reflected in any and all properly constructed speed figs.

[comet52]

Couldn't win a state bred stakes back in november, and ran against no real proven runners in his last 4 starts. All horses in both open stakes san felipe and santa anita derby were in house horses. There in house 3 yrolds are rats there. If he beat a real racehorse I could see him being a contender. and as someone eluded to in and other post, Santa anita had the track fast as lighting through the meet holding front speed bias. Which definitely contributed to his recent success. The party will soon be over when he faces the real monsters back east.

alluded

[clocker7]

A "concrete" racetrack will be reflected in any and all properly constructed speed figs.
I respectfully dispute that. It has long been a contention of mine that superfast tracks distort things too much when constructing figs and applying them to longer distances.

Now, as long as their usage are restricted to the very shortest races, then the impact is not as noticeable, and not a problem. But they tend to exaggerate the abilities of horses facing longer tests and mask the weakness of those who tend to fade more by essentially "clipping off" the most challenging portion of a race when energy reserve is a premium.

It's much, much easier to toss and move on than to finagle an untrustworthy number for. Who needs to rely upon a controversial fig, anyway? There's always another race to bet right around the corner.

[cj]

I respectfully dispute that. It has long been a contention of mine that superfast tracks distort things too much when constructing figs and applying them to longer distances.

Now, as long as their usage are restricted to the very shortest races, then the impact is not as noticeable, and not a problem. But they tend to exaggerate the abilities of horses facing longer tests and mask the weakness of those who tend to fade more by essentially "clipping off" the most challenging portion of a race when energy reserve is a premium.

It's much, much easier to toss and move on than to finagle an untrustworthy number for. Who needs to rely upon a controversial fig, anyway? There's always another race to bet right around the corner.

I don't think it can be argued much that super fast race tracks distort things a little. If it takes less time to run a race, less stamina is required. However, this amount of distortion is very small in my opinion, even at longer distances. Not only that, it can be incorporated into figures pretty easily.

[mountainman]

I've seen lots of super-fast surfaces that weren't speed-biased. It depends on the track in question. And while I would assume there's a general correlation between running times and speed-proficiency, I'd love to see statistical proof. Even then, a distinction would be needed between intrinsically quick surfaces and those playing faster than par.

[clocker7]

I don't think it can be argued much that super fast race tracks distort things a little. If it takes less time to run a race, less stamina is required. However, this amount of distortion is very small in my opinion, even at longer distances. Not only that, it can be incorporated into figures pretty easily.
I'm not sure how you have been able to calculate such a compensation factor for a variant (generally based upon a sample of sprint races, and extrapolated for longer distances), but I'd like to read how. Imo, when it comes to those circumstances, art takes over from science when it comes to fig providers struggling with a difficult race. I've never had much confidence in those results.

In races of 10f or longer, I think that a super fast track changes the nature of the running so much that variants become buggy; and that any claim of accuracy is suspect; and that it almost becomes a significant-figure situation. :)

[cj]

I'm not sure how you have been able to calculate such a compensation factor for a variant (generally based upon a sample of sprint races, and extrapolated for longer distances), but I'd like to read how. Imo, when it comes to those circumstances, art takes over from science when it comes to fig providers struggling with a difficult race. I've never had much confidence in those results.

In races of 10f or longer, I think that a super fast track changes the nature of the running so much that variants become buggy; and that any claim of accuracy is suspect; and that it almost becomes a significant-figure situation. :)

I'm not going to get into too deep here, but with the use of computers, it isn't that hard. This wouldn't have been practical 20 years ago. Instead of using speed charts for each distance, how about a new one for each final time? If a 10f race takes 2 minutes to complete, it isn't too hard to program it to use different values than a race that takes 2:06 to complete. Getting beat 10 lengths in the first race is more significant than getting beat 10 lengths in the second race.

Comparing races at different distances this way gets a little trickier, but it is possible. If a group of horses sprints a race in 1:10, and a similar group ability wise runs 10 furlongs in 2:00 later in the day, is it possible to project what the latter group would run 10f in if the first group sprinted in 1:12 next time?

So to keep it simple, you have to have variable values between distances, and also for beaten lengths based on the speed of the racetrack. In other words, on a "fast" track, maybe the difference in like performances at 6f and 7f is 12 seconds. In an average track it could be 12.5, and on a slow track 13. It does help make better variants. Is it worth it? That is up to the figure maker.

[big frank]

what kind of numbers did saturday's race have Cj ?? thanks

[Exotic1]

I like the way the connections aren't afraid to run their horse.
He's been racing for close to a year now without a break.
He ran his first race in April.
He broke his Maiden in May.
CC won a stake back in July.
In that stakes race he beat a double bias that DMR had for the first 7 weeks of the meet.
Very few horses closed in the middle of DMR main track to win a race for all of July-Aug.
That might of been the tip off that CC was the goods.
He has 5 Stakes wins.
10 races under his belt.
In an era when barns are afraid to run their 3yo's, they race this guy every chance they get.
I think his heavy workload has given CC an edge on most other 3yo's.
When CC won the San Felipe it was the second fastest running in the 77 year history of the race.......and Espinoza wrapped him up after the 1/16th Pole.
And here's one I like:
When Affirmed won the SA Derby by 8 lengths he went 1:48 flat.
When Sunday Silence won the SA Derby by 11 he went 1:47.3.
CC won the SA Derby in 1:47.2(geared down).
Of course this horse can get beat in the Derby.
He can draw the rail.
The track could come up muddy.
He could get wiped out on the first turn.
But to proclaim he has no shot is foolish.

Good presentation of the facts. Also as you finished with, "Prior Results do not guarantee a similar outcome", especially when there are 19 horses coming at you from all sides. It does seem however like we haven't seen too many (any?) horses overcome adversity such as post position, going really wide, pace pressure, maneuver from between horses, get knocked around a bit and still close strongly. It "seems" (no quantification available) that many of the top 3yo races were won with horses getting good trips. No knocks on CC at all, you can't blame him or downgrade him for beating up his competition. Good horses make it appear that everything went their way when they demolish their competition.

Other than a time based metric, did any horse really impress you to say this horse can overcome most of what they throw at him and still run his race? I don' know, maybe I'm looking for a superstar that can do everything.

[cj]

what kind of numbers did saturday's race have Cj ?? thanks

113 for the winner, slightly lower than the 117 in the Wood. I've had the NY horses faster all year, and while there is no guarantee one horse can verify anything, Kristo sure didn't hurt that premise.

[Smarty Cide]

There is absolutely nothing more to say about this horse that I haven’t already said over the past two months. He is simply one of the most special young horses I’ve seen in years, and if the Triple Crown drought is ever to end, this is the kind of horse who will end it. Yes, I’m getting way ahead of myself, but I cannot remember the last time I’ve seen a horse as close to perfection as this guy. For a horse to keep piling up these freakish performances for a so long is a rarity in racing today and he actually keeps getting better. My apologies for a little horn tooting, but I have a reason for doing so. Back on Feb. 3 after his Cal Cup Derby victory, I wrote, Cal-bred or no Cal-bred, this was the most impressive 3-year-old in the country, saying, “This horse has such a long fluid stride and levels off so beautifully he’s a joy to watch…you can’t ask a horse to run any straighter down the stretch. He accelerates on his own at the right time, and for a long-striding horse his lead changes are so smooth you can barely see him do it…this horse has absolutely no flaws.” Two months later and nothing has changed. He has run one monster Thoro-Graph number after another without regressing; he has run the best 3-year-olds in California into the ground at the exact same spot each time and with the same push-button burst of speed; he wins under no urging at all; his works are spectacular while under wraps; he’s now won at 4 1/2 furlongs, 5 1/2 furlongs, 7 furlongs, 1 1/16 miles, and 1 1/8 miles and has been racing steadily for an entire year; he’s brilliantly fast, but has a tremendous mind and knows how to harness his speed and when to use it; and his pedigree is inundated with classic winners at 1 1/2 miles from Europe and the U.S. All this adds up to a “freak.” Can a horse possibly keep up this remarkable pace heading into the Derby? In the words of Al Jolson, we ain’t seen nuthin’ yet. Come to think of it, I take back my apology.

Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2014/04/07/derby-dozen-april-7-2014-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx#ixzz2yFJvXKSN

[horses4courses]

Way too early to pronounce him the "Chosen One".
The test he will get at Churchill will be like nothing he's attempted before.

He sure appears to have greatness.
Appearances have deceived us for many years now, though.

Although I will be rooting for him,
I'm waiting for his next race before I jump on the bandwagon.

Here's hoping he's a true champion - the sport could sure use one. :ThmbUp:

[Rex Phinney]

Here come the California haters...

I'll just say as someone who has spoken to the owners of this horse ans been live to his last two races, there is nothing in our 50 united states right now that they are afraid of with this horse, and having watched the other preps they have nothing to be afraid of.

Hope the NY runners end up with lots of runners in the Derby, THEY ARE GOING TO NEED ALOT OF BULLETS TO SHOOT HIM DOWN.

[depalma113]

I guess you don't comprehend that the track was lightning fast. In regard to the times you posted. Race 2 was won gate to wire by Storm Fighter, in a State bred nw1x 20000 optional and they went in 22.67 45.77 1.09.67 1.22.42 1.35.67. Thats smoking for that state bred condition. If that doesn't tell you the track was like concrete, and hence increased the speed number falsley, not to mention make it nearly impossible to close on the track.

When is Churchill Downs NOT lightning fast on Derby Day?

[Hank]

Mr. Gorilla's criticism of CC is inherently flawed in that it is based upon attacking his competitors and the track surface.Not a peep about what he did or how he did it. After Usain Bolt electrified the world shattering the world 100m record with ease in the 2008 Olympics, Mr.Gorilla was undoubtedly talking about the also rans and the track surface.

[ArlJim78]

Like many I'm the type who is normally full of doubts about the annointed derby favorite, but that appears not to be the case this year. At this point the horse looks like a standout and has derby winner written all over him. Not making a final call just yet, but I was impressed with what I saw Saturday.

[bgbootha]

Mr. Gorilla's criticism of CC is inherently flawed in that it is based upon attacking his competitors and the track surface.Not a peep about what he did or how he did it. After Usain Bolt electrified the world shattering the world 100m record with ease in the 2008 Olympics, Mr.Gorilla was undoubtedly talking about the also rans and the track surface.

I have been trying to find a reason to go against CC on Derby Day, and there isn't one. I see where Gorilla is coming from, as those two things are the only two things you can pull from.

You can point to the SA track, but lets not pretend that the track is a 5 length advantage.

The idea that his competition was weak a valid, only because the Santa Anita Derby set up perfectly for CC. He had no one to press the pace, Hoppertunity had no chance there with the way that pace set up.

[bks]

113 for the winner, slightly lower than the 117 in the Wood. I've had the NY horses faster all year, and while there is no guarantee one horse can verify anything, Kristo sure didn't hurt that premise.

Out of curiosity cj, how did you have Bodemeister and I'll Have Another rated going into the 2012 Derby vis-a-vis their East Coast competitors?

[taxicab]

Good presentation of the facts. Also as you finished with, "Prior Results do not guarantee a similar outcome", especially when there are 19 horses coming at you from all sides. It does seem however like we haven't seen too many (any?) horses overcome adversity such as post position, going really wide, pace pressure, maneuver from between horses, get knocked around a bit and still close strongly. It "seems" (no quantification available) that many of the top 3yo races were won with horses getting good trips. No knocks on CC at all, you can't blame him or downgrade him for beating up his competition. Good horses make it appear that everything went their way when they demolish their competition.

Other than a time based metric, did any horse really impress you to say this horse can overcome most of what they throw at him and still run his race? I don' know, maybe I'm looking for a superstar that can do everything.


Well put Robert.
Really like the line featured in Bold print.......very true.

[cj]

Out of curiosity cj, how did you have Bodemeister and I'll Have Another rated going into the 2012 Derby vis-a-vis their East Coast competitors?

I know Bodemeister was rated fastest in the field going into the Derby. He was also rated fastest coming out, but I did predict I'll Have Another would beat him in the Preakness despite his pace adjusted faster number.

[Saratoga_Mike]

CC is the Mister Frisky of this yr's Derby. Of course me saying that almost ensures a win for him, but I will absolutely not use him in the top spot in the Derby.

[Rex Phinney]

CC is the Mister Frisky of this yr's Derby. Of course me saying that almost ensures a win for him, but I will absolutely not use him in the top spot in the Derby.

You should keep a shredder on hand for all your losing tickets.

The only thing that can beat this horse is the trip (which of course is possible) but any talk that he isn't good enough is ridiculous. He is winning races in ways that only superstars can, doing it for fun and last time with the jockey easing him up.

[Saratoga_Mike]

You should keep a shredder on hand for all your losing tickets.

The only thing that can beat this horse is the trip (which of course is possible) but any talk that he isn't good enough is ridiculous. He is winning races in ways that only superstars can, doing it for fun and last time with the jockey easing him up.

I'd be shocked if he wins - he just doesn't fit the profile of modern (last 20 yrs) Derby winners. Just in case, I do own a shredder.

[Rex Phinney]

I'd be shocked if he wins - he just doesn't fit the profile of modern (last 20 yrs) Derby winners. Just in case, I do own a shredder.

Do you mean the way he runs or his size? What about him "doesn't fit"?

I think you mean that his best races have been from close to the front, and I think that's a valid concern for the Derby. I think he is good enough to win the Derby if he gets a spot anywhere from half a length to 2 lengths behind the leader. I believe there will be horses coming for him from further back than that, I just don't think they will be able to catch him.

I think of the way Big Brown won.

[cj]

If horses like Holy Bull and Point Given can miss hitting the board in the Derby, California Chrome certainly can too.

[PhantomOnTour]

If horses like Holy Bull and Point Given can miss hitting the board in the Derby, California Chrome certainly can too.
And I don't think he's a Holy Bull or a Point Given

[Rex Phinney]

If horses like Holy Bull and Point Given can miss hitting the board in the Derby, California Chrome certainly can too.

Holy Bull and Point Given aren't racing this year.

Tell us all then who from NY is going to beat him? You just had a horse win the Wood basically because no one else up there can make it 9 furlongs. You would need an hourglass to figure out the time of the last 3 furlongs in the Wood.

What exactly are you using Kristo as comparison for? He hasn't won anything but an allowance race? Midnight Hawk beat him. What else is there to say.

[nijinski]

CC may bring some credibility to Los Al as a training center . Who new?

[cj]

Holy Bull and Point Given aren't racing this year.

Tell us all then who from NY is going to beat him? You just had a horse win the Wood basically because no one else up there can make it 9 furlongs. You would need an hourglass to figure out the time of the last 3 furlongs in the Wood.

What exactly are you using Kristo as comparison for? He hasn't won anything but an allowance race? Midnight Hawk beat him. What else is there to say.

I personally had the NY horses faster going in, and faster coming out. We'll see. California Chrome is certainly a very good horse. I've never said he wasn't. But wow, the hype has kicked into overdrive. There are threads proclaiming him a lock triple crown winner already.

I personally think his running style will put him in trouble. He doesn't need to lead, but he'll be close, and I don't see any way the pace won't be extremely fast. With his running style, if he draws inside he'll get shuffled back, but if he draws outside, he'll lose a lot of ground while running fast around the first turn. Neither are very good options in my opinion.

Here is my recap on the races: http://t.co/KLLnAo2kdo

[BettinBilly]

I personally had the NY horses faster going in, and faster coming out. We'll see. California Chrome is certainly a very good horse. I've never said he wasn't. But wow, the hype has kicked into overdrive. There are threads proclaiming him a lock triple crown winner already.

I personally think his running style will put him in trouble. He doesn't need to lead, but he'll be close, and I don't see any way the pace won't be extremely fast. With his running style, if he draws inside he'll get shuffled back, but if he draws outside, he'll lose a lot of ground while running fast around the first turn. Neither are very good options in my opinion.

Here is my recap on the races: http://t.co/KLLnAo2kdo

I've had my reservations but could not quantify it. Thanks CJ. Very insightful.

[classhandicapper]

I personally had the NY horses faster going in, and faster coming out. We'll see. California Chrome is certainly a very good horse. I've never said he wasn't. But wow, the hype has kicked into overdrive. There are threads proclaiming him a lock triple crown winner already.

I personally think his running style will put him in trouble. He doesn't need to lead, but he'll be close, and I don't see any way the pace won't be extremely fast. With his running style, if he draws inside he'll get shuffled back, but if he draws outside, he'll lose a lot of ground while running fast around the first turn. Neither are very good options in my opinion.

Here is my recap on the races: http://t.co/KLLnAo2kdo

I agree with what he said. :ThmbUp:

In the San Felipe CC got to the lead and the rail on a day when I made the inside path better.

In the SA Derby he stalked a weaker quality speed and took over easily.

Don't get me wrong. I'm convinced he's very good. Very good horses sometimes get soft trips.

I just don't want to bet on him as the favorite when with his style he may get a much more demanding trip than he's had recently. I don't hate him enough to "key" against him in exotics, but I don't see myself with a win bet on him.

[BettinBilly]

I agree with what he said. :ThmbUp:

In the San Felipe CC got to the lead and the rail on a day when I made the inside path better.

In the SA Derby he stalked a weaker quality speed and took over easily.

Don't get me wrong. I'm convinced he's very good. Very good horses sometimes get soft trips.

I just don't want to bet on him as the favorite when with his style he may get a much more demanding trip than he's had recently. I don't hate him enough to "key" against him in exotics, but I don't see myself with a win bet on him.

My thoughts exactly, Class. I'm on the same program.

[Cratos]

The Kentucky Derby is an odd race on the American turf in that it is scheduled to have 20 entrants to run 1-1/4 miles and none of them typically have ever run farther than 1-11/8 miles.

Therefore it is difficult to make a good assessment of a probable winner until after all of the Derby preps are run.

California Chrome might look like a winner today, but post position, track condition, and the number of starters in the Derby could dramatically change that outlook.

[Rex Phinney]

I personally had the NY horses faster going in, and faster coming out. We'll see. California Chrome is certainly a very good horse. I've never said he wasn't. But wow, the hype has kicked into overdrive. There are threads proclaiming him a lock triple crown winner already.

I personally think his running style will put him in trouble. He doesn't need to lead, but he'll be close, and I don't see any way the pace won't be extremely fast. With his running style, if he draws inside he'll get shuffled back, but if he draws outside, he'll lose a lot of ground while running fast around the first turn. Neither are very good options in my opinion.

Here is my recap on the races: http://t.co/KLLnAo2kdo

I notice you don't get into the hard time numbers in there. Maybe you could share with the group how the last 3 furlongs of the Wood went time wise?

If you think California Chrome will have a bad trip in the Derby, that's fine, and I certainly think it is dumb to even mention the triple crown at this point. So none of those "lock" threads have my endorsement. But calling the NY runners "faster" at this point is odd to me.

Wicked Strong looked good becasue he was passing horses who want no part of going even 9 furlongs, forget about 10. Look at the times, I wouldn't consider any of the other horses in the Wood to play in the Derby, They all slowed down way too much in the last 3 furlongs.

California Chrome pressed the lead, had no target to run at, noone to compete with and was under wraps the last 75 yards and still went the last 3 furlongs faster than Wicked Strong.

I know the trip is always a wildcard in the Derby, but if California Chrome gets a trip that puts him within 5 lengths of the lead and in the front half of the field, this race is his to lose.

[SecretAgentMan]

The Kentucky Derby is an odd race on the American turf in that it is scheduled to have 20 entrants to run 1-1/4 miles and none of them typically have ever run farther than 1-11/8 miles.

Therefore it is difficult to make a good assessment of a probable winner until after all of the Derby preps are run.

California Chrome might look like a winner today, but post position, track condition, and the number of starters in the Derby could dramatically change that outlook.


I don't think a sloppy track will bother Chrome at all.......as for post positions, as long as he doesn't draw the 1 or 2 hole, he will be fine.

[cj]

I notice you don't get into the hard time numbers in there. Maybe you could share with the group how the last 3 furlongs of the Wood went time wise?

If you think California Chrome will have a bad trip in the Derby, that's fine, and I certainly think it is dumb to even mention the triple crown at this point. So none of those "lock" threads have my endorsement. But calling the NY runners "faster" at this point is odd to me.

Wicked Strong looked good becasue he was passing horses who want no part of going even 9 furlongs, forget about 10. Look at the times, I wouldn't consider any of the other horses in the Wood to play in the Derby, They all slowed down way too much in the last 3 furlongs.

California Chrome pressed the lead, had no target to run at, noone to compete with and was under wraps the last 75 yards and still went the last 3 furlongs faster than Wicked Strong.

I know the trip is always a wildcard in the Derby, but if California Chrome gets a trip that puts him within 5 lengths of the lead and in the front half of the field, this race is his to lose.

What are "hard time numbers"? If you mean raw times, you will never hear me mention them. I learned long time ago that considering them with no regard to the track they were run on is pure folly. The Santa Anita racetrack was MUCH faster on Saturday than was Aqueduct.

[Curlin]

Absolutely love him dominating the santa anita derby. Makes better odds for the kentucky derby winner. Now just have to figure out who it is.

[cj]

What are "hard time numbers"? If you mean raw times, you will never hear me mention them. I learned long time ago that considering them with no regard to the track they were run on is pure folly. The Santa Anita racetrack was MUCH faster on Saturday than was Aqueduct.

To belabor my point, you never hear anybody say "Wicked Strong could only get 9f in 1:49.31, while California Chrome ran the same time in 1:47.52. He is clearly 11 lengths slower." So why do people think comparing unadjusted fractions is the way to go? It makes no sense.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Do you mean the way he runs or his size? What about him "doesn't fit"?

I think you mean that his best races have been from close to the front, and I think that's a valid concern for the Derby. I think he is good enough to win the Derby if he gets a spot anywhere from half a length to 2 lengths behind the leader. I believe there will be horses coming for him from further back than that, I just don't think they will be able to catch him.

I think of the way Big Brown won.

No, modern-day Derby winners don't make their first start as a 2-yr-old in April. You may say, "that's a stupid objection." But I think there's something to it (i.e., relates to a weaker bred and when horses need to peak).

[cj]

Here is what I have for the last three furlongs from Saturday when adjusted for track speed:

Wicked Strong 24.00, 12.38, final 3f in 36.38
California Chrome 24.03, 12.51, final 3f in 36.54

Don't take this wrong, I would never advocate basing anything on 1/3 of the entire race. A race should be looked at as a complete entity. But if you are going to look at race segments, at least consider the track it was done on.

[Saratoga_Mike]

CJ is the voice of reason in this thread. As he said, of course CC could win (I don't like him personally), but the hype is a little over the top.

[Rex Phinney]

Here is what I have for the last three furlongs from Saturday when adjusted for track speed:

Wicked Strong 24.00, 12.38, final 3f in 36.38
California Chrome 24.03, 12.51, final 3f in 36.54

Don't take this wrong, I would never advocate basing anything on 1/3 of the entire race. It should be looked at as a complete entity. But if you are going to look at race segments, at least consider the track it was done on.

Sounds like one of those cool deals where you take what you actually SAW and throw it out the window.

The time to 6 furlongs of the two races was within .4 of each other, in the Santa Anita Derby California Chrome was right on top of that pace, after which he ran the last 3 furlongs 2 seconds faster (again with little urging and nothing to run down) than Wicked Strong did in the Wood.

Hey I get it, you don't want to post the ACTUAL times from the races because it makes the timeform numbers look way out of whack, that's cool, but what your doing is calling the NY horses "faster" and discounting California Chrome for no reason, he has ran better more times than anyone else going to the Derby, no other horse has shown the ability to hold their form.

FWIW BRIS and Beyer both have California Chrome 3 points higher than Wicked Strong. So Mike let's save the "voice of reason" comments.

We've got people calling the California horses rats and guys calling the NY horses faster even though not a single one of them has won two races worth any points in succession.

What I saw in the Wood was a good horse beating others who were standing up and quitting after a mile. I don't need a track speed interpreter to tell me what I saw.

Again I'm not saying California Chrome is going to win the Triple Crown or anything dumb like that, I'm just taking up a little bit for the California circuit.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Sounds like one of those cool deals where you take what you actually SAW and throw it out the window.

The time to 6 furlongs of the two races was within .4 of each other, in the Santa Anita Derby California Chrome was right on top of that pace, after which he ran the last 3 furlongs 2 seconds faster (again with little urging and nothing to run down) than Wicked Strong did in the Wood.



.

When Groovy ran his huge Beyer (what was it 125?), was the rider whipping and slashing or did it look like there was a lot left in the tank? It was the latter, yet he never topped that effort. Of course, I'm stealing this example from "Beyer on Speed," where Beyer explains a horse "under wraps" wouldn't have necessarily gone a lot faster under vigorous urging.

[cj]

Hey I get it, you don't want to post the ACTUAL times from the races because it makes the timeform numbers look way out of whack, that's cool, but what your doing is calling the NY horses "faster" and discounting California Chrome for no reason, he has ran better more times than anyone else going to the Derby, no other horse has shown the ability to hold their form.

FWIW BRIS and Beyer both have California Chrome 3 points higher than Wicked Strong. So Mike let's save the "voice of reason" comments.


You just can't have debate without people making it personal these days. Why is that? Why can't we just disagree without it having to be about TimeformUS?

I've been posting on here LONG before TimeformUS even existed. A lot of people laughed off my praise of War Emblem even before the Illinois Derby. I'm certainly not always right, not even close. But I also don't deserve to be treated like I'm trying to be a shill. Am I not allowed to express an opinion any longer because I do this for a job?

As for the TimeformUS numbers being out of whack, they are based on nearly a decade and a half of data. They aren't random and certainly aren't designed to favor one state or circuit over another. Like I already mentioned when somebody asked, Bodemeister and Goldencents have been rated fastest on preps the last two years, so I'm certainly no California basher.

[BettinBilly]

I respect your opinion verymuch, CJ. The greatest barrier to learning is what you think you already know. To that end, I am humble on Forums, because you never know when you may gain knowledge and an edge in our sport. I can separate the Wheat from the Chaff fairly quickly, and you provide great insight.

Thank you.

[cj]

When Groovy ran his huge Beyer (what was it 125?), was the rider whipping and slashing or did it look like there was a lot left in the tank? It was the latter, yet he never topped that effort. Of course, I'm stealing this example from "Beyer on Speed," where Beyer explains a horse "under wraps" wouldn't have necessarily gone a lot faster under vigorous urging.

Some people don't get this. Of course, Groovy probably could have run faster that day, just as California Chrome probably could have run faster on Saturday. But, in no way does that mean they can run even faster in a different race on a different day. It almost never works out that way.

[Rex Phinney]

No, modern-day Derby winners don't make their first start as a 2-yr-old in April. You may say, "that's a stupid objection." But I think there's something to it (i.e., relates to a weaker bred and when horses need to peak).

I see where you are coming from, I'm not sure it's a viable knock on this horse though, seeing as you couldn't ask for him to be "peaking" at a better time. I think all horses are different, this one seems to have toiled around in mediocrity for a while before coming into his own, so maybe the early start did him good. This may very go against the modern day norm of horses running fewer and fewer races before the derby.

I for one think this is a product of modern day trainers, very seldom do they take a good horse and make it great, or a bad horse and make them decent. They pretty much just run them thru the workouts put them out there and what you get is what you get, this seems to be even more popular with guys like Pletcher and Baffert, they will give the horse a few months works and a couple races and if the horse doesn't show them something they move on to the next one. It's a pure numbers (quantity) game for them.

[Rex Phinney]

You just can't have debate without people making it personal these days. Why is that? Why can't we just disagree without it having to be about TimeformUS?

I've been posting on here LONG before TimeformUS even existed. A lot of people laughed off my praise of War Emblem even before the Illinois Derby. I'm certainly not always right, not even close. But I also don't deserve to be treated like I'm trying to be a shill. Am I not allowed to express an opinion any longer because I do this for a job?

As for the TimeformUS numbers being out of whack, they are based on nearly a decade and a half of data. They aren't random and certainly aren't designed to favor one state or circuit over another. Like I already mentioned when somebody asked, Bodemeister and Goldencents have been rated fastest on preps the last two years, so I'm certainly no California basher.

I did not intend to turn anything into a personal issue, and have no reason to, sorry if you took it that way.

I surely understand that Santa Anita plays maybe faster than any track in the country right now, and though it is my home track I keep that in mind. That's why I pointed out the times to 6 furlongs in the two races, they weren't as different as I first thought they would be. That being said, I start every day of handicapping at Santa Anita assuming closers will have no chance, I have to see someone win from off the pace before I start betting that way. So I know California Chrome has an uphill battle in the derby if he ends up running like he has in his last two races.

I'm also a big believer that some horses run the same with or without urging. I think probably we have seen California Chrome all out even if the jockey hasn't had to get it out of him. I'm reminded of Rachel Alexandra, she ran the same speed no matter the circumstance, so it's hard to assume horses have another gear just because the jockey makes it seem they are cruising, many times, they are already going their fastest.

I don't want you to think I'm an internet bully or anything like that, I'm not, I don't think this horse is the second coming or that he is a lock to win the triple crown.

I just think he is the best 3YO in the country right now, and resent when people call the horses in California "rats".

[Smarty Cide]

dont matter if that horse is from California, Kalamazoo, or China he is the best 3YO prospect since Big Brown.... and Big Brown was one bad mother ****er

[Hank]

I personally had the NY horses faster going in, and faster coming out. We'll see. California Chrome is certainly a very good horse. I've never said he wasn't. But wow, the hype has kicked into overdrive. There are threads proclaiming him a lock triple crown winner already.

I personally think his running style will put him in trouble. He doesn't need to lead, but he'll be close, and I don't see any way the pace won't be extremely fast. With his running style, if he draws inside he'll get shuffled back, but if he draws outside, he'll lose a lot of ground while running fast around the first turn. Neither are very good options in my opinion.

Here is my recap on the races: http://t.co/KLLnAo2kdo

Fascinating.Having great tactical speed but not being a need to lead speed ball is generally considered the best "style" an american dirt racer can possess.Why are these qualities suddenly problematic?And your outcome scenarios with respect to pp draw are very very iffy without knowledge of were the other speeds draw.Will he win the Derby... who knows but your "case" against CC here is not a strong one IMHO.

[cj]

Fascinating.Having great tactical speed but not being a need to lead speed ball is generally considered the best "style" an american dirt racer can possess.Why are these qualities suddenly problematic?And your outcome scenarios with respect to pp draw are very very iffy without knowledge of were the other speeds draw.Will he win the Derby... who knows but your "case" against CC here is not a strong one IMHO.

I generally agree with the above, but we only see 20 horse fields once a year. It isn't like any other race with regard to pace and ground loss.

[Cratos]

dont matter if that horse is from California, Kalamazoo, or China he is the best 3YO prospect since Big Brown.... and Big Brown was one bad mother ****er

Please elaborate and put your response in a historical perspective because as stated I am not buying "the best 3yo prospect since Big Brown."

[SharpCat]

When Groovy ran his huge Beyer (what was it 125?), was the rider whipping and slashing or did it look like there was a lot left in the tank? It was the latter, yet he never topped that effort. Of course, I'm stealing this example from "Beyer on Speed," where Beyer explains a horse "under wraps" wouldn't have necessarily gone a lot faster under vigorous urging.


Groovy ran a 133 Beyer in the Roseben Handicap and followed it with a 132 Beyer in the True North Handicap in his first 2 starts of 1987.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Groovy ran a 133 Beyer in the Roseben Handicap and followed it with a 132 Beyer in the True North Handicap in his first 2 starts of 1987.

You have a great memory - was it the True North where it looked like he could have gone 2 seconds faster??? thx

[Saratoga_Mike]

I see where you are coming from, I'm not sure it's a viable knock on this horse though, seeing as you couldn't ask for him to be "peaking" at a better time. I think all horses are different, this one seems to have toiled around in mediocrity for a while before coming into his own, so maybe the early start did him good. This may very go against the modern day norm of horses running fewer and fewer races before the derby.

I for one think this is a product of modern day trainers, very seldom do they take a good horse and make it great, or a bad horse and make them decent. They pretty much just run them thru the workouts put them out there and what you get is what you get, this seems to be even more popular with guys like Pletcher and Baffert, they will give the horse a few months works and a couple races and if the horse doesn't show them something they move on to the next one. It's a pure numbers (quantity) game for them.

All good observations, imo. I'm going to stick with the "he started too early as a 2-yr-old" rule, though. On the upside (for you and CC), I don't think I've had a Derby winner since Winning Colors.

[rastajenk]

I don't think I've ever heard of the "too early" 2yo rule. Seems like that would help to build the "foundation" that late starters are accused of not having.

[Tom]

Groovy raced at Finger Lakes and set a track record for 6.
He ran so fast, we had to water the track after the race because the dirt was smoldering. He ran so fast he was entered in the 8th race and won the 7th.

[GaryG]

I don't think I've ever heard of the "too early" 2yo rule. Seems like that would help to build the "foundation" that late starters are accused of not having.Can't be too early, but also can't be unraced as a 2yo. There is no other race where you here this stuff. I think it started with the dosage eliminations. If the pace is extremely fast, as is usually the case, I see CC rating off the pace the way Big Brown did in both the Derby and Preakness.

[classhandicapper]

Fascinating.Having great tactical speed but not being a need to lead speed ball is generally considered the best "style" an american dirt racer can possess.Why are these qualities suddenly problematic?

It's the 10F distance combined with the field size and the propensity for the Derby to have extreme paces.

Typically, having enough the speed to stay close without getting involved in a duel is a good thing, but in the Derby that sometimes means you are still too close and wind up making a premature move to the lead.

[SecretAgentMan]

Horses that come to mind that were close to the pace in the derby & won it:

Silver Charm
Funny Cide
Smarty Jones
Barbaro
Big Brown

If you look at all these horse & their previous races yo the derby, they raced exactly like Chrome does. Doesn't mean Chrome will win......just comparing horses & methods of racing.

We've had 5 straight years of closers & that might change.

[classhandicapper]

Horses that come to mind that were close to the pace in the derby & won it:

Silver Charm
Funny Cide
Smarty Jones
Barbaro
Big Brown

If you look at all these horse & their previous races yo the derby, they raced exactly like Chrome does. Doesn't mean Chrome will win......just comparing horses & methods of racing.

We've had 5 straight years of closers & that might change.

When we see the final field and the post positions it will give us a better idea about the probable pace.

[Cratos]

Horses that come to mind that were close to the pace in the derby & won it:

Silver Charm
Funny Cide
Smarty Jones
Barbaro
Big Brown

If you look at all these horse & their previous races yo the derby, they raced exactly like Chrome does. Doesn't mean Chrome will win......just comparing horses & methods of racing.

We've had 5 straight years of closers & that might change.

I am not sure how you are defining closer, but Super Saver was a mere ½ length behind Noble’s Promise at the mile marker in the 2010 Derby and I’ll Have Another was just 3 lengths off of the leader, Bodemeister in the 2012 Derby at the mile marker.

[SecretAgentMan]

I am not sure how you are defining closer, but Super Saver was a mere ½ length behind Noble’s Promise at the mile marker in the 2010 Derby and I’ll Have Another was just 3 lengths off of the leader, Bodemeister in the 2012 Derby at the mile marker.


Super Saver was 4th by 7 lengths at the 1st quarter mile & I'll Have Another was 7th by 8 lengths off the leader at the 1st quarter.

The horses I mentioned above in my list were less than 4 lengths off the leader. Yes, IHA was a stalker horse going into the derby & he's not considered a deep closer but the past 5 derby's didn't show me that the winners had good tactical speed like Big Brown, Silver Charm, etc......that's something Chrome has.

Chrome broke bad in Santa Anita derby & was pinched back & bumped like a pinball & with his tactical speed, got up fast enough to get behind the leader. That's the horse I want in a field of 20 unless you can pick a Monarchos in this field which I'm 100% sure there isn't one this year.

Whether Borel used a buzzer to get Super Saver up close is another discussion, although I bet SS in 2010, Pletcher was due & SS gave him the best chance that year.

[Cratos]

Super Saver was 4th by 7 lengths at the 1st quarter mile & I'll Have Another was 7th by 8 lengths off the leader at the 1st quarter.

The horses I mentioned above in my list were less than 4 lengths off the leader. Yes, IHA was a stalker horse going into the derby & he's not considered a deep closer but the past 5 derby's didn't show me that the winners had good tactical speed like Big Brown, Silver Charm, etc......that's something Chrome has.

Chrome broke bad in Santa Anita derby & was pinched back & bumped like a pinball & with his tactical speed, got up fast enough to get behind the leader. That's the horse I want in a field of 20 unless you can pick a Monarchos in this field which I'm 100% sure there isn't one this year.

Whether Borel used a buzzer to get Super Saver up close is another discussion, although I bet SS in 2010, Pletcher was due & SS gave him the best chance that year.

This year will be my 36th consecutive Derby in attendance. This doesn’t make me an expert on Derby history, but I do follow it closely and Super Saver was not 7 lengths behind at the ¼ mile in the 2010 Derby, he was 5 ½ lengths behind (see attached chart).

The 1 mile marker is at the end of the far turn entering the Churchill Downs stretch and if a horse is within ½ lengths of the lead at that point (where Super Saver was) and wins he is not a “closer” in my book.

In the 2012 Derby, I’ll Have Another was not 8 lengths off of the lead at the ¼ mile marker; he was 4 lengths off (see attached chart) and at the 1 mile marker he was 3 lengths off of the lead which is shown in the chart. Again, I wouldn’t consider that a “closer” effort because he had to make up only 3 lengths with a quarter mile to run.

I don’t know anything about Calvin Borel having a buzzer and like you said, that is another discussion.

Preferred running styles are usually determined by the “shape” of the race and at this point with this year’s Derby field yet to be declared I don’t have an opinion on what running style I would prefer.

Matter of fact, I have yet to decide on what horse I will bet and will not make that decision until I see the Derby entries.

[SecretAgentMan]

For Chrome to win the derby, he's gotta sit 3 to 4 lengths off the pace. Now we gotta wait for the entire field to enter & then post position draw to make an accurate assumption.

There should be several horses gunning for the lead, at least 4 to 5 that I'm aware of. Its fun trying g to figure out the derby winner early & then when the PP draw is final, our minds tend to change.

[classhandicapper]

Super Saver was 4th by 7 lengths at the 1st quarter mile & I'll Have Another was 7th by 8 lengths off the leader at the 1st quarter.

The horses I mentioned above in my list were less than 4 lengths off the leader. Yes, IHA was a stalker horse going into the derby & he's not considered a deep closer but the past 5 derby's didn't show me that the winners had good tactical speed like Big Brown, Silver Charm, etc......that's something Chrome has.

Chrome broke bad in Santa Anita derby & was pinched back & bumped like a pinball & with his tactical speed, got up fast enough to get behind the leader. That's the horse I want in a field of 20 unless you can pick a Monarchos in this field which I'm 100% sure there isn't one this year.

Whether Borel used a buzzer to get Super Saver up close is another discussion, although I bet SS in 2010, Pletcher was due & SS gave him the best chance that year.

Both those horses were closer early, but dropped further back after 4F. You were probably looking at the wrong point of call. No big deal.

[Rex Phinney]

I think you guys are giving the horses and jocks too much credit in their planning. Alot of it is dumb luck, in a field of 20 horses there are times when you take what comes to you, not everything is so tactical.

Every year we analyze the pace scenarios and what horses are going to go and which ones will find the perfect spot to stalk or close. I think it's better to find a horse that can adapt to what comes to him.

Some of those speed horses you think are going to push the pace will get shuffled back, some of the horses will get wound up in front of 150,000 people and miss the break or be way to keen to run.

It's not as simple as saying these 5 horses will go to the lead and these 5 will stalk and those 5 will close. It never develops that way.

Perfect example is Palice Malice, noone had him going out like he did, nor did anyone think he was even capable of going that fast. As soon as he did it, all the other speed in the race is out of their game. Fact is of 20 horses some of them have very little chance, so they are going to do things noone will expect, they are going to push the lead at extreme speed, they are going to lay 25 lengths off the leader.

[SecretAgentMan]

I think you guys are giving the horses and jocks too much credit in their planning. Alot of it is dumb luck, in a field of 20 horses there are times when you take what comes to you, not everything is so tactical.

Every year we analyze the pace scenarios and what horses are going to go and which ones will find the perfect spot to stalk or close. I think it's better to find a horse that can adapt to what comes to him.

Some of those speed horses you think are going to push the pace will get shuffled back, some of the horses will get wound up in front of 150,000 people and miss the break or be way to keen to run.

It's not as simple as saying these 5 horses will go to the lead and these 5 will stalk and those 5 will close. It never develops that way.

Perfect example is Palice Malice, no one had him going out like he did, nor did anyone think he was even capable of going that fast. As soon as he did it, all the other speed in the race is out of their game. Fact is of 20 horses some of them have very little chance, so they are going to do things noone will expect, they are going to push the lead at extreme speed, they are going to lay 25 lengths off the leader.


Several things to look at with Palice Malice. Of course no one seen that coming with him taking the lead right away but you have to consider who the trainer was.......Pletcher had 5 horses I believe last year & he needed a rabbit out there to try & set up for one of his other horses.

Indian Charlie was sent out to press the pace in 1997 setting up Real Quiet.

Frankel sent out Peace Rules trying to set up a win for Empire Maker.

You gotta look at all the possibilities that may happen in a race & what kind a game plan the trainers will try to unfold on derby day.

Pletcher has a possible 4 running & Baffert also a possible 4 entered. Both those trainers combined have almost half the field

We just gotta wait for the PP to try & figure out the different possible scenarios.

[depalma113]

Peace Rules was not a rabbit for Empire Maker.

[SecretAgentMan]

Peace Rules was not a rabbit for Empire Maker.


Brancusi had the lead half way thru but Peace Rules pressed him the whole way.......PR was in there to kill the pace up front & you got the results of FC & EM for the exacta.

Whether people want to believe that Frankel had 2 shots to win the derby or there was a plan of attack like I mentioned above is up to the individual.

[Hank]

Brancusi had the lead half way thru but Peace Rules pressed him the whole way.......PR was in there to kill the pace up front & you got the results of FC & EM for the exacta.

Whether people want to believe that Frankel had 2 shots to win the derby or there was a plan of attack like I mentioned above is up to the individual.

Your assertion that a colt the quality of Peace rules was a "rabbit" in the 2003 Derby is complete NONSENSE.He was the second betting choice behind EM he entered the Derby off wins in the G2 La derby and the G1 Blue Grass.His owner was NOT Juddmonte.He finished 3rd beaten a HD by Empire Maker on the line.Rabbits do NOT persevere all out to the line.You are mistaken or misinformed here.PEACE.

[SecretAgentMan]

IMO, when capping the derby, you gotta read between the lines. Whether PR was by the same owner or not makes no difference in my capping. Frankel knew PR had no shot at winning the derby, hence the result.

I know he only lost by 1 3/4 lengths coming in 3rd but a loss is a loss.

Funny Cide was the best horse going into the derby after watching the Wood.

[Hank]

IMO, when capping the derby, you gotta read between the lines. Whether PR was by the same owner or not makes no difference in my capping. Frankel knew PR had no shot at winning the derby, hence the result.

I know he only lost by 1 3/4 lengths coming in 3rd but a loss is a loss.

Funny Cide was the best horse going into the derby after watching the Wood.

Alrighty then. You've convinced me, PR was indeed a rabbit for IM, what was I thinking.Silly me.

[cj]

IMO, when capping the derby, you gotta read between the lines. Whether PR was by the same owner or not makes no difference in my capping. Frankel knew PR had no shot at winning the derby, hence the result.

I know he only lost by 1 3/4 lengths coming in 3rd but a loss is a loss.

Funny Cide was the best horse going into the derby after watching the Wood.

Is it April 1st again?

[SecretAgentMan]

Is it April 1st again?



Let's agree to disagree..........

[depalma113]

Brancusi had the lead half way thru but Peace Rules pressed him the whole way.......PR was in there to kill the pace up front & you got the results of FC & EM for the exacta.

Whether people want to believe that Frankel had 2 shots to win the derby or there was a plan of attack like I mentioned above is up to the individual.

You obviously have no clue concerning the relationship between Frankel and Gann.

[nijinski]

Several things to look at with Palice Malice. Of course no one seen that coming with him taking the lead right away but you have to consider who the trainer was.......Pletcher had 5 horses I believe last year & he needed a rabbit out there to try & set up for one of his other horses.

Indian Charlie was sent out to press the pace in 1997 setting up Real Quiet.

Frankel sent out Peace Rules trying to set up a win for Empire Maker.

You gotta look at all the possibilities that may happen in a race & what kind a game plan the trainers will try to unfold on derby day.

Pletcher has a possible 4 running & Baffert also a possible 4 entered. Both those trainers combined have almost half the field

We just gotta wait for the PP to try & figure out the different possible scenarios.

Pletcher put blinkers on Palace Malice who was working very well for the race . I don't think he was intentionally entered as the rabbit .

[mountainman]

Aside from the year when dire predictions of a killing pace had a counter-effect enabling War Emblem to wire, brutal fractions that obliterate anything near the front seem the derby standard. I'm not a guy who maintains laborious profiles of ky derby winners (nor a guy who can name the top 3 finishers from every running since Aristides)-it's a horserace to me, best handicapped without stars in my eyes, over-attentiveness to media buzz or preconceived notions. But I have found the best mindset is to target a live rallier at underbet odds and take your shot. Of course, analysts will caution against risking traffic issues in a big field-and rough trips WILL hinder some closers- but the winner is usually an off-pace type that gets a good voyage.

[horses4courses]

For the first time, I'm beginning to think that CC may be 5-2, or less.

[SecretAgentMan]

For the first time, I'm beginning to think that CC may be 5-2, or less.


2-1 or 5-2 should be the closing line

[menifee]

He will be 2-1. He might even be even money. This horse is clearly the best horse (especially after this weekend's preps).

I don't know how you can bet him at these odds. Even if you think he's much the best (as I do) and 5-10 lengths better than these horses (as I do), the variables in the Derby make betting any horse (no matter how talented) at these odds a bad play.

I'm concerned about the pace scenario in this race. I look at the 86 Derby as to what could happen. Snow Chief was the best horse (even money) Even though he was a stalker and stalked in that race - they went 22 and 45 to the half - he was absolutely cooked. Afleet Alex is another example of a supremely talented horse that stalked a very fast pace and was cooked in the lane.

[SecretAgentMan]

Sometimes you just gotta bet the favorite & in no way will he be even money. This is s 20 horse field.......Point Given was 9-5 in the derby & deservingly so. 2001 had some really good horses as well.

This year, there isn't much competition just like in 2004 with Smarty Jones, it was a terrible line up racing against the best 3 year old going into the derby (my biggest derby score) & a favorite at 4-1, I couldn't believe my eyes every time I looked at the odds on the TV........Smarty was the best in 2004, Big Brown was the best in 2008 & Chrome is the best in 2014.

You couldn't say that about Orb last year going in. Chrome wins the Derby & Preakness (will be 2-5, so bet him in derby)

[SecretAgentMan]

He will be 2-1. He might even be even money. This horse is clearly the best horse (especially after this weekend's preps).

I don't know how you can bet him at these odds. Even if you think he's much the best (as I do) and 5-10 lengths better than these horses (as I do), the variables in the Derby make betting any horse (no matter how talented) at these odds a bad play.

I'm concerned about the pace scenario in this race. I look at the 86 Derby as to what could happen. Snow Chief was the best horse (even money) Even though he was a stalker and stalked in that race - they went 22 and 45 to the half - he was absolutely cooked. Afleet Alex is another example of a supremely talented horse that stalked a very fast pace and was cooked in the lane.


Remember the Monarchos derby? 21 & 44 were some fast quarters & Monarchos tied Secretariats record for the final time in the derby & Monarchos never won another race in his career......

[Vinnie]

With Monarchos's running style that was the Best Setup (A dream set up) that he could have ever received as a horse. That's why he was passing horses late in the race like "nuns sitting at a bus stop". It was something else! :)

[letswastemoney]

Aside from the year when dire predictions of a killing pace had a counter-effect enabling War Emblem to wire, brutal fractions that obliterate anything near the front seem the derby standard. I'm not a guy who maintains laborious profiles of ky derby winners (nor a guy who can name the top 3 finishers from every running since Aristides)-it's a horserace to me, best handicapped without stars in my eyes, over-attentiveness to media buzz or preconceived notions. But I have found the best mindset is to target a live rallier at underbet odds and take your shot. Of course, analysts will caution against risking traffic issues in a big field-and rough trips WILL hinder some closers- but the winner is usually an off-pace type that gets a good voyage.
You don't know which speed horses will be on the lead and which ones will not. Horses that like to race on or near the lead sometimes find themselves in 5th, 6th, 7th early.

It's better to pick a talented horse and let the chips fall where they may.

[depalma113]

Aside from the year when dire predictions of a killing pace had a counter-effect enabling War Emblem to wire, brutal fractions that obliterate anything near the front seem the derby standard.

The scratch of Budha changed that pace of that Derby dramatically.

[Cratos]

Remember the Monarchos derby? 21 & 44 were some fast quarters & Monarchos tied Secretariats record for the final time in the derby & Monarchos never won another race in his career......

Monarchos did not tie Secretariat’s Ky Derby final time record.

Monarchos – 2001 Ky Derby Final Time
: 22.25, :44.86, 1:09.25, 1:35.00, 1:59.97

Secretariat – 1973 Ky Derby Final Time
:23 2/5, :47 2/5, 1:11 4/5, 1:36 1/5, 1:59 2/5

Yes, I understand that Monarchos time is stated in digital time fractions and Secretariat’s time is stated in common time fractions, but officially Secretariat’s time is held to be the fastest.

[SecretAgentMan]

Does anyone have the updated past performances with the top 20 to 25 conteders? Brisnet is still stuck with April 8th

[PhantomOnTour]

Does anyone have the updated past performances with the top 20 to 25 conteders? Brisnet is still stuck with April 8th
No they are not...just as I did the other day....I went the BRIS site and did this:

hit SELECTIONS, PROGRAMS AND PP'S
then hit PAST PERFORMANCES
then hit ULTIMATE PP'S W/ COMMENTS

then choose the very first thing listed which is
KENTUCKT DERBY-FREE (3)

[SecretAgentMan]

No they are not...just as I did the other day....I went the BRIS site and did this:

hit SELECTIONS, PROGRAMS AND PP'S
then hit PAST PERFORMANCES
then hit ULTIMATE PP'S W/ COMMENTS

then choose the very first thing listed which is
KENTUCKT DERBY-FREE (3)


Thanks a lot bro........

[SecretAgentMan]

We all know Chrome is a very impressive horse & received a 107 beyer......why did Hoppertunity only receive a 98?

I mean, I know Chrome could have won by 10 in that race but I'm thinking Hoppertunity wasn't fully cranked up & Smith never went to the whip on him & also, he didn't force the horse to close on Chrome.

I can't wait until the post draw, gotta see what all these horses start from.

[onefast99]

Does anyone have the updated past performances with the top 20 to 25 conteders? Brisnet is still stuck with April 8th
Go to the kentucky derby site www.kentuckyderby.com (http://www.kentuckyderby.com) and look up "contenders" it has the up to the minute info on all the top 27.

[Valuist]

I don't think California Chrome is a lock, by any means. That was a soft pace in the SA Derby. The field was all bunched up within several lengths, then he extended the margin late. Horses off this kind of trip end up severely overbet at CD, with a much likely different pace scenario.

[SecretAgentMan]

I don't think California Chrome is a lock, by any means. That was a soft pace in the SA Derby. The field was all bunched up within several lengths, then he extended the margin late. Horses off this kind of trip end up severely overbet at CD, with a much likely different pace scenario.


I understand where you're coming from but who did Smarty Jones be at going into the derby? How about Big Brown or War Emblem.....I can go on & on.

Is Chrome a lick? Absolutely not but he looks very impressive once the saddle goes on. Someone was quoted as saying, "I walked by Cali Chrome & he looked like an ordinary horse & when I saw him saddled up & in the post parade, he looked like he got bigger, like he flexes his muscles"......

Very few horses know why & what they are running & what they are there to do.......Chrome is all business & Art Sherman got this horse ready at the right time.......this horse showed tons of potential, I just wish they would have ran him longer distances from the beginning .........IMO, I just don't see any horses in his league.

Don't compare horses like Gemologist, etc to this horse......Gemologist had terrible fractions in his races going into the derby.

Only horse that may have a shot IMO is Hoppertunity because Baffert didn't have him cranked to race to his potential, then again, he hasn't raced as a 2 year old & maybe with all the hype on Chrome, Hoppy breaks that trend since 1882 & no one sees it coming, possibility?

Then we have the PETA distraction & Rasmussen get his named pulled from the HOF ballot......horse racing getting a black eye & some people wanting thevfeds to get involved, the best thing we could have is a triple crown winner to over shadow the bs from PETA......

And what better story then Art Sherman & Cali Chrome to do it.

[Valuist]

I understand where you're coming from but who did Smarty Jones be at going into the derby? How about Big Brown or War Emblem.....I can go on & on.

Is Chrome a lick? Absolutely not but he looks very impressive once the saddle goes on. Someone was quoted as saying, "I walked by Cali Chrome & he looked like an ordinary horse & when I saw him saddled up & in the post parade, he looked like he got bigger, like he flexes his muscles"......

Very few horses know why & what they are running & what they are there to do.......Chrome is all business & Art Sherman got this horse ready at the right time.......this horse showed tons of potential, I just wish they would have ran him longer distances from the beginning .........IMO, I just don't see any horses in his league.

Don't compare horses like Gemologist, etc to this horse......Gemologist had terrible fractions in his races going into the derby.

Only horse that may have a shot IMO is Hoppertunity because Baffert didn't have him cranked to race to his potential, then again, he hasn't raced as a 2 year old & maybe with all the hype on Chrome, Hoppy breaks that trend since 1882 & no one sees it coming, possibility?

Then we have the PETA distraction & Rasmussen get his named pulled from the HOF ballot......horse racing getting a black eye & some people wanting thevfeds to get involved, the best thing we could have is a triple crown winner to over shadow the bs from PETA......

And what better story then Art Sherman & Cali Chrome to do it.

I think Hopportunity was cranked. The race dynamics were not in his favor. A bunched field over that surface gives a horse like Hopportunity almost no chance to win back on April 5 at SA.

I've been betting the Derby for about 30 years and have seen a lot of heavily bet horses with big figs earned in front running fashion over the SA surface, the Gulfstream surface, and the old Keeneland dirt surface, and they tend to be overbet in Louisville. Often strongly overbet. Maybe he will beat me, but I consider him a go-against. Pace will be much stronger in the bigger, and better field.

[SecretAgentMan]

I think Hopportunity was cranked. The race dynamics were not in his favor. A bunched field over that surface gives a horse like Hopportunity almost no chance to win back on April 5 at SA.

I've been betting the Derby for about 30 years and have seen a lot of heavily bet horses with big figs earned in front running fashion over the SA surface, the Gulfstream surface, and the old Keeneland dirt surface, and they tend to be overbet in Louisville. Often strongly overbet. Maybe he will beat me, but I consider him a go-against. Pace will be much stronger in the bigger, and better field.


Did you say the same thing about Big Brown & Smarty Jones? They gotta beat you because they are favs? Or how about Orb last year or Street Sense? All if these favs ......I donlike Cali Chrome because he's gonna be the favorite, I like him for several reason, one being that I dont see anyone closing on him down the stretch when he rumbles like he has nitrous.........nothing is a guarantee but I will wait & make my final pick after the post draw.

[Valuist]

Did you say the same thing about Big Brown & Smarty Jones? They gotta beat you because they are favs? Or how about Orb last year or Street Sense? All if these favs ......I donlike Cali Chrome because he's gonna be the favorite, I like him for several reason, one being that I dont see anyone closing on him down the stretch when he rumbles like he has nitrous.........nothing is a guarantee but I will wait & make my final pick after the post draw.

Orb and Street Sense were not front running GP winners. Smarty Jones came from OP. I tried to beat Big Brown and lost. I thought he couldn't overcome the 20 post. Street Sense was a deserving favorite. I used Orb in some gimmicks but didn't have Golden Soul.

But I also tried to beat Point Given and nailed that tri. I didn't cash last year but was also against Verrazano, coming off several good trips.

You point out some favorites that won but there was a real, real long streak of favorites that lost. I believe it was 1980-2004 until Smarty Jones finally won as a favorite.

The race just is very chaotic and horses that haven't had to overcome adversity find themselves in a much different position than what they have been used to.

[SecretAgentMan]

F Pegasus in 2000 broke the favorite trend. As for horses not having adversity in their faces, Chrome has raced plenty of races going into the derby. He also broke awkward, was pinched back & still had the tactical speed to get up behind the front runner.

Very few horses can do what he did going into the 1st turn after the problems he incurred at the break. i actually would like to see Chrome work over churchill but then again, not because anyone betting him may get better odds than initially thought since he didnt work over churchill.

[Cratos]

F Pegasus in 2000 broke the favorite trend. As for horses not having adversity in their faces, Chrome has raced plenty of races going into the derby. He also broke awkward, was pinched back & still had the tactical speed to get up behind the front runner.

Very few horses can do what he did going into the 1st turn after the problems he incurred at the break. i actually would like to see Chrome work over churchill but then again, not because anyone betting him may get better odds than initially thought since he didnt work over churchill.

But he didn't do it in a field of 20 horses with a 100K+ racing fans making more noise than a rock concert and adding to that dilemma is a race track which have small turns that produces a very strong side force which doesn't bode well for front-runners.

[Skanoochies]

And none of the others have done it in a 20 horse field with 100k also, so why is it so difficult for him and not the others? :confused: :confused:

[SecretAgentMan]

And none of the others have done it in a 20 horse field with 100k also, so why is it so difficult for him and not the others? :confused: :confused:



Bingo! Exactly, I don't understand why people are using the excuse of there's 20 horses & 100k fans screaming, I don't remember any other horse racing in a 20 horse field this year either......really? Every derby winner went through the same thing, what's the difference.

People will use any excuse when they are trying to beat a horse & sometimes the obvious horse wins. There are no guarantees but people shouldn't make outlandish excuses.

[burnsy]

Bingo! Exactly, I don't understand why people are using the excuse of there's 20 horses & 100k fans screaming, I don't remember any other horse racing in a 20 horse field this year either......really? Every derby winner went through the same thing, what's the difference.

People will use any excuse when they are trying to beat a horse & sometimes the obvious horse wins. There are no guarantees but people shouldn't make outlandish excuses.

That's a no brainer if you have been have been betting horses for a while......Because the results in this race are often more random. That's why. Its hard for any horse to win. 20 horse field for the first and probably only time. First time going 10 furlongs. The race is often run in a fast pace, rough, scrambling manner. The random affect of the big crowd.....you don't know which horses won't acclimate. The favorite often goes multiple years without winning and look up how many horses never win again. Its an excuse for every horse in the field not only the favorite.......so the lower odds you take, the worst bet you are getting because All of these horses are against something they have never done and history smacks you in the face with a large sample, full of strange outcomes due to the circumstances of this race. This is more true with the more recent fields of 18-20 horses. You may use the favorite but if you are putting all your eggs in that basket.............don't go crying to mamma when the horse gets snubbed at the start or on a turn. Its not outlandish, its facts....so if you are just betting the lowest price horse.....you are pretty much taking the worst of it. If you look closely, you gotta come up with a list of a few viable contenders or you won't cash many tickets on the derby. Forget about the derby and understand how odds work in a horse race.

[SecretAgentMan]

Umm....I've had several derby longshot winners that I've bet in the past. I don't bet favorites because they are favs. I bet a fav in the derby because I think there is no way this horse can lose, at least that's what I think.

I rather have a short priced derby winner where I collect money than a long shot loser throwing away money thinking I can beat the best horse in the race.

As far as Chrome being pinched back & bumped around, go back & watch his last race.......this horse has serious tactical speed, something most horses this year don't have.

I don't have to make a list of possible winners when I know the rest are garbage this year. This isn't 2001, where several horses looked super solid going into that derbybvs the best horse, Point Given.

The favorite has won the derby 4 times past 13 years........sure I would love to bet a long shot that pays $30, but that won't happen this year.

Good luck trying to beat the best horse..........

[The WindfallAngler]

CC is the Mister Frisky of this yr's Derby. Of course me saying that almost ensures a win for him, but I will absolutely not use him in the top spot in the Derby.

Inasmuch as no reason exists to suspect in California Chrome the presence of a life-threatening (and incontrovertibly career-altering) esophageal abscess (heaven forbid!), your comparison to the unfortunate Mister Frisky is without merit.

[Relwob Owner]

Bingo! Exactly, I don't understand why people are using the excuse of there's 20 horses & 100k fans screaming, I don't remember any other horse racing in a 20 horse field this year either......really? Every derby winner went through the same thing, what's the difference.

People will use any excuse when they are trying to beat a horse & sometimes the obvious horse wins. There are no guarantees but people shouldn't make outlandish excuses.


Using the big field as a reason to think CC may not win isn't an "outlandish excuse". It is pretty simple logic. Bigger field means more things can happen resulting in the best horse not winning. Thats a fact, not an excuse IMO.

[bgbootha]

Using the big field as a reason to think CC may not win isn't an "outlandish excuse". It is pretty simple logic. Bigger field means more things can happen resulting in the best horse not winning. Thats a fact, not an excuse IMO.

The idea of using a Big Field as an knock is a little ludacris on the simple terms that every horse that runs in that race will have the same disadvantage of running in a big field.

[Relwob Owner]

The idea of using a Big Field as an knock is a little ludacris on the simple terms that every horse that runs in that race will have the same disadvantage of running in a big field.


If one said that California Chrome was more likely to be hurt by a big field, that would be knock and would be ludicrous because as you say, every horse that runs has that same disadvantage. That is not what I, and others are saying. What we are saying is that the best horse can potentially not win the race because of the big field and greater potential of traffic resulting in the best horse not winning.

[SecretAgentMan]

If one said that California Chrome was more likely to be hurt by a big field, that would be knock and would be ludicrous because as you say, every horse that runs has that same disadvantage. That is not what I, and others are saying. What we are saying is that the best horse can potentially not win the race because of the big field and greater potential of traffic resulting in the best horse not winning.


I agree with your statements.......the advantage Chrome has over others in the derby is he excellent tactical speed & that comes to be tested in a big field as we all saw it with Big Brown from the 20th hole.

I do not want to see Chrome come out of posts 1 or 2, & 17 to 20......posy 3 to 16 is better for this type of horse.

I do like Chrome as of now but will make my final decision after I see the post positions.

Do I think Chrome can lose? Absolutely bit with this years crop of 3 year olds, I like my chances backing him.

[Speed Figure]

Hope he didn't peak too soon!

[SecretAgentMan]

Hope he didn't peak too soon!


How do you come to the conclusion that a horse has peaked before entering the derby?

[Speed Figure]

How do you come to the conclusion that a horse has peaked before entering the derby?
I'm not saying he did, I'm saying I hope he didn't. Looking at my numbers it was his best race. He didn't make that big of a jump which is great, but with 20 horses in field I'm hoping he get's a good post and can handle the track.

[classhandicapper]

I don't think the 20 horse field hurts CA Chrome. It's that a 20 horse field like the Derby generally contains a lot speed and presser types that make it more likely the pace will be faster than average. Given that CA Chrome has been racing close to the pace lately, it's easy to envision a scenario where he would be drawn into the action early and be disadvantaged by that pace. That's not what you are looking for when you are considering betting the likely post time favorite.

[Fager Fan]

If one said that California Chrome was more likely to be hurt by a big field, that would be knock and would be ludicrous because as you say, every horse that runs has that same disadvantage. That is not what I, and others are saying. What we are saying is that the best horse can potentially not win the race because of the big field and greater potential of traffic resulting in the best horse not winning.

Yes, but whatever longshot you pick is going to have the same disadvantage. I'd trust the most experienced and professional in the field to handle the people and horse crowds, and that's Cali Chrome.

The money to be made in this race is in the exotics, and you have to hit the winner. This horse in his last 2 races has looked like a man among boys, and I don't see any other men out there.

[luisbe]

"Very few horses can do what he did going into the 1st turn after the problems he incurred at the break."
"I think there is no way this horse can lose, at least that's what I think."

Get pinched in the Derby and you're cooked.

[Relwob Owner]

Yes, but whatever longshot you pick is going to have the same disadvantage. I'd trust the most experienced and professional in the field to handle the people and horse crowds, and that's Cali Chrome.

The money to be made in this race is in the exotics, and you have to hit the winner. This horse in his last 2 races has looked like a man among boys, and I don't see any other men out there.


Read the second line of my post that you responded to....you are countering my post but you repeated exactly what I said.

My posts and others are responses to those that seem to think that CC is unbeatable. I am simply saying, if you read my posts, that in a 20 horse field, the best horse doesn't always win and that is my counter to those that say he isn't going to lose because he is the best,


Every year, whether it be before the Derby, Preakness or Belmont, people pop off about horses that are going to win, that are going to win the Triple Crown, etc. Every year they get proven wrong due to the size of the challenge involved.

[Rex Phinney]

I think we have some serious California Chrome haters in here.

Most of you guys need to learn that in racing there is somewhere between pronouncing a triple crown winner in April and turning into a total hater against the favorite.

I'm not seeing many guys who are having fun with it in the middle ground, every one thinks he will win his next 10 races, or that he is a rat.

[SecretAgentMan]

I think we have some serious California Chrome haters in here.

Most of you guys need to learn that in racing there is somewhere between pronouncing a triple crown winner in April and turning into a total hater against the favorite.

I'm not seeing many guys who are having fun with it in the middle ground, every one thinks he will win his next 10 races, or that he is a rat.


Plenty of Chrome haters & I understand why, there's 19 other horses that he's gotta beat & other obstacles in the race.

Since 1997, we've had 8 horses trying to win the triple crown & the closest we came was Real Quiet by a nose loss.

Yes it would be nice to get a triple crown horse this year but the only horse I can see having the ability to perform this task is Cali Chrome. Only time will tell.........

[cj]

Not sure I remember a race where so many are so anxious to anoint the favorite a cinch. He could win, but will he be a good bet? I don't see it.

[SecretAgentMan]

Dance With Fate will enter the derby, as it was announced today......if you guys want to play a long shot, here he is st 50-1

[Leparoux]

Dance With Fate will enter the derby, as it was announced today......if you guys want to play a long shot, here he is st 50-1
I do not see him being 50-1 at all

[SecretAgentMan]

I do not see him being 50-1 at all


Neither do I........I can see him going off at 20-1

I was looking at updated lines, they had Chrome at 3-1, Wicked Strong 6-1..... . I don't understand how Medal Count was 40-1 & Dance Fate beat him & was 50-1

[Relwob Owner]

I agree with your statements.......the advantage Chrome has over others in the derby is he excellent tactical speed & that comes to be tested in a big field as we all saw it with Big Brown from the 20th hole.

I do not want to see Chrome come out of posts 1 or 2, & 17 to 20......posy 3 to 16 is better for this type of horse.

I do like Chrome as of now but will make my final decision after I see the post positions.

Do I think Chrome can lose? Absolutely bit with this years crop of 3 year olds, I like my chances backing him.


Good points. Best of luck to you in the race

[porchy44]

Last time a Cal-bred won the Kentucky Derby, gas was 25 cents a gallon.

Quote from Jay Hovdey

[SecretAgentMan]

Cali Chrome had a nice & easy workout this morning.......47.8

[SecretAgentMan]

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/apr/20/california-chrome-kentucky-derby-favourite


“We almost had a disaster yesterday,” says Art Sherman, trainer of the current favourite for this year’s Kentucky Derby, California Chrome.

The near-disaster concerned two riderless horses who ran amok on Los Alamitos racecourse the morning before, while California Chrome was out for his routine exercise. In a move right out of the Red Adair handbook, one of the loose horses made a beeline for California Chrome, avoiding him by inches as he whizzed past on his flight back to his stable.

“He missed him by that much,” says Sherman, illustrating with his hands a moderate-sized fish. “It looked like Chrome had a target on his back.”

But it’s the morning after the morning before, and now, as Sherman stands at the rail to watch California Chrome go through his daily paces once again, any fears of a double lightening-strike have been all but banished. That’s because this morning, and every morning until horse, trainer and their media shadow head east to Churchill Downs for the big race on 3 May, for about 20 minutes the track is a no-go zone for everyone but California Chrome and his rider.

“I spoke to the doc [Dr Ed Allred, who owns Los Alamitos racecourse] on the phone last night,” says Sherman. “He said to me: ‘I can’t let anything happen to this horse.’ So, they took the decision to close the track when Chrome trains.

[cj]

Obviously no horse has run back from the Santa Anita Derby, but the San Felipe is another story. It certainly wasn't a very strong field at all as indicated every time one of the others runs back.

[SecretAgentMan]

Obviously no horse has run back from the Santa Anita Derby, but the San Felipe is another story. It certainly wasn't a very strong field at all as indicated every time one of the others runs back.


Pro Prado ran 3rd to Smarty Jones 3 straight races before finishing 13th by 20 lengths in the derby.

Borrego was 2nd to Smarty in one race before finishing 10th by 16.5 lengths in the derby........

You can't blame a good gorse for running against bad horses. Good horses usually beat any horse you put in the field against him/her. ......

Eight Belles finished 2nd to Big Brown in the 2008 derby.....there's a reason why the trainer stuck a filly in with the boys & the best 3 year old Big Brown.

I'm not saying its not good to cap a race on what the horses behind Chrome have done......I use that logic in smaller tracks. I don't think that logic works well in the triple crown races.

[cj]

Pro Prado ran 3rd to Smarty Jones 3 straight races before finishing 13th by 20 lengths in the derby.

Borrego was 2nd to Smarty in one race before finishing 10th by 16.5 lengths in the derby........

You can't blame a good gorse for running against bad horses. Good horses usually beat any horse you put in the field against him/her. ......

Eight Belles finished 2nd to Big Brown in the 2008 derby.....there's a reason why the trainer stuck a filly in with the boys & the best 3 year old Big Brown.

I'm not saying its not good to cap a race on what the horses behind Chrome have done......I use that logic in smaller tracks. I don't think that logic works well in the triple crown races.

I don't think that is a very good comparison. The horses from the race I noted have not run back in Triple Crown races, not even close. They have underperformed in lesser races for the most part, save Kristo.

[SecretAgentMan]

I don't think that is a very good comparison. The horses from the race I noted have not run back in Triple Crown races, not even close. They have underperformed in lesser races for the most part, save Kristo.


Cj, I'm assuming you're trying to find any or as many negative things against Chrome to go against him?

I'm waiting for the post position draw but as of right now, I don't see any horse in the field beating Chrome.......now I may change my mind after seeing all the workouts but Chrome worked great in his workout, so we shall see.......

[cj]

Cj, I'm assuming you're trying to find any or as many negative things against Chrome to go against him?

I'm waiting for the post position draw but as of right now, I don't see any horse in the field beating Chrome.......now I may change my mind after seeing all the workouts but Chrome worked great in his workout, so we shall see.......

Of course not...had I looked up the chart and horses from that race were running great I would have posted as much too. But, it hasn't happened, not even close. Like you said, he won those races easily, so it may not mean much, but it is worth noting he hasn't exactly been challenged yet.

[Racey]

have been that way all along no need to even think about it ,,,, no brainer they got lucky

[SecretAgentMan]

An article on Chrome & his owners.......


Yes, his speed and overall brilliance has been established, but his mind plays a huge part in his success. He has a wonderful relationship with people and knows exactly what he has to do, whether racing or training.

Part of that is due to the amount of contact he had with people as a foal. His dam had a difficult time foaling him, suffering lacerations, and she and her foal had to remain in confinement for an extended period of time until she recovered, and he got to interact a great deal with people, while developing quite a personality and becoming very independent.

Because he wasn’t able to socialize with the other foals in the beginning, he became more focused on people than he was on horses. To this day, he still has maintained those close ties to people. In his early days on the track at the farm he loved to go out and train every day and always enjoyed what he was doing and learned his lessons like a pro. And he was never sick a day while he was there; not even as much as a slight fever. The quote of the week goes to co-owner Steve Coburn, who had turned down a reported $6 million for the horse before the Santa Anita Derby.

When a significantly higher offer came in after the Santa Anita Derby, Coburn’s reply was, “My answer last week was “no” and my answer now is “hell, no.” Some dreams are priceless.

[mostpost]

I don't think that is a very good comparison. The horses from the race I noted have not run back in Triple Crown races, not even close. They have underperformed in lesser races for the most part, save Kristo.
You're supposed to be this great horse racing expert. From that post, I don't see it. After the San Felipe Midnight Hawk finished second in the Sunland Derby and the Illinois Derby. Those may have been lesser races but I would not call that under performing. There was one horse who performed very well after his race in the San Felipe. That would be California Chrome who beat much better horses in the Santa Anita Derby.

Where is it written that the only way you can evaluate the horses in a race is by looking at their future races? Why are the previous races not equally indicative? Hoppurtunity beat Tapiture and Ride On Curlin in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes in his race prior to the Santa Anita Derby. Candy Boy won a Grade 2 and finished 2nd in a Grade 1 prior to being easily handled by CC in the SAD.

You are part of a group that seems to go out of its way to knock California Chrome. He hasn't beaten anybody; except everyone he has raced against.
He's taking advantage of a track bias, but the horses running in the Florida Derby weren't taking advantage of an equally biased track.
He'll never go the distance; yet his final 3/8 in the mile and one eighth Santa Anita Derby was only 1/5 slower than his final 3/8 in the seven furlong King Glorious.
You know for a certainty that in the Kentucky Derby, California Chrome is going to get left in the gate, blocked on the inside, carried wide or some such even though the race won't be run for almost two weeks. And none of those disasters is going to happen to any of the other competitors.

[cj]

You're supposed to be this great horse racing expert. From that post, I don't see it. After the San Felipe Midnight Hawk finished second in the Sunland Derby and the Illinois Derby. Those may have been lesser races but I would not call that under performing. There was one horse who performed very well after his race in the San Felipe. That would be California Chrome who beat much better horses in the Santa Anita Derby.

Where is it written that the only way you can evaluate the horses in a race is by looking at their future races? Why are the previous races not equally indicative? Hoppurtunity beat Tapiture and Ride On Curlin in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes in his race prior to the Santa Anita Derby. Candy Boy won a Grade 2 and finished 2nd in a Grade 1 prior to being easily handled by CC in the SAD.

You are part of a group that seems to go out of its way to knock California Chrome. He hasn't beaten anybody; except everyone he has raced against.
He's taking advantage of a track bias, but the horses running in the Florida Derby weren't taking advantage of an equally biased track.
He'll never go the distance; yet his final 3/8 in the mile and one eighth Santa Anita Derby was only 1/5 slower than his final 3/8 in the seven furlong King Glorious.
You know for a certainty that in the Kentucky Derby, California Chrome is going to get left in the gate, blocked on the inside, carried wide or some such even though the race won't be run for almost two weeks. And none of those disasters is going to happen to any of the other competitors.

Nice way to start a post. What did you accomplish with your first sentence? What did that add to the post? Doesn't really inspire me to respond, but I will any way. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you weren't intentionally being an ass.

Midnight Hawk was what, 2 to 5 in the Illinois Derby? He lost to a horse that took six starts to break his maiden and was still eligible for a NW1 allowance. In my book, that is under performing. He also ran slower than he had in the past on my figures. He was 2 to 5 because of the speed he ran in California for the most part, and he didn't back it up when shipping east. That is worth noting in my opinion.

As far as what the horses going in had done, you are right, that is part of it. But these are three year olds that change rapidly, so I tend to look the future more than the past. That said, I was never impressed with the Oaklawn crew and have said so a few times here. They didn't run particularly fast and were all dusted by Danza. Danza ran very well, but he was huge odds for a reason going in.

You haven't seen me touting the front running winners from Florida, I know that. I think Social Inclusion ran well and fast, and he backed it up in New York with a very good race. But Wildcat Red, General a Rod, Constitution...never said much good about any of them.

As for the SA Derby, saying he beat much better horses is debatable. A little better, maybe. But I didn't have Hoppertunity and Candy Boy any better than Midnight Hawk. If you're going to start talking raw fractions, sorry, you are talking to the wrong guy. I find them worthless. I also wouldn't put much stock in a frontrunner running fast late when he wins easily. You may feel differently, that is fine.

I'm a bettor. I will always look for potential flaws in the favorite, particularly in a 20 horse field with the biggest pools we'll ever see in this country available. I certainly don't know what kind of trip he'll get, as I don't with any of the other horses. But I know a tough trip is the most likely outcome for every horse, so I'm not taking a short price.

[Fager Fan]

Of course not...had I looked up the chart and horses from that race were running great I would have posted as much too. But, it hasn't happened, not even close. Like you said, he won those races easily, so it may not mean much, but it is worth noting he hasn't exactly been challenged yet.

Isn't this a case of saying the field wasn't much coming out of the race rather than going in? People thought that Baffert's horse and Candy Boy were "worthy" competitors until they were whipped by CC. Now the field was supposedly weak. Maybe it should be looked at the opposite - that CC made them look weak.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you weren't intentionally being an ass.Sainthood looks to be in your future...

[Robert Fischer]

CJ is right(as usual), IMHO.
I'm a bettor. I will always look for potential flaws in the favorite, particularly in a 20 horse field with the biggest pools we'll ever see in this country available. I certainly don't know what kind of trip he'll get, as I don't with any of the other horses. But I know a tough trip is the most likely outcome for every horse, so I'm not taking a short price.

The way that California Chrome runs, and particularly if you look back to some of the races where he faced adversity, like the Golden State Juvenile on 11/01/13, it's not 1000% certain that he is willing to relax, behind horses, in the 2nd group.

If I was owning/training/betting him, I'd want to see him on the lead, or near the lead in the clear and running freely. However, it can take a lot of horse to establish that trip in the Kentucky Derby.

[Bettowin]

An article on Chrome & his owners.......


Yes, his speed and overall brilliance has been established, but his mind plays a huge part in his success. He has a wonderful relationship with people and knows exactly what he has to do, whether racing or training.

Part of that is due to the amount of contact he had with people as a foal. His dam had a difficult time foaling him, suffering lacerations, and she and her foal had to remain in confinement for an extended period of time until she recovered, and he got to interact a great deal with people, while developing quite a personality and becoming very independent.

Because he wasn’t able to socialize with the other foals in the beginning, he became more focused on people than he was on horses. To this day, he still has maintained those close ties to people. In his early days on the track at the farm he loved to go out and train every day and always enjoyed what he was doing and learned his lessons like a pro. And he was never sick a day while he was there; not even as much as a slight fever. The quote of the week goes to co-owner Steve Coburn, who had turned down a reported $6 million for the horse before the Santa Anita Derby.

When a significantly higher offer came in after the Santa Anita Derby, Coburn’s reply was, “My answer last week was “no” and my answer now is “hell, no.” Some dreams are priceless.

Smarty Jones had a similar situation when he cracked his face in the starting gate when he was young.

[raybo]

Isn't this a case of saying the field wasn't much coming out of the race rather than going in? People thought that Baffert's horse and Candy Boy were "worthy" competitors until they were whipped by CC. Now the field was supposedly weak. Maybe it should be looked at the opposite - that CC made them look weak.

Probably depends on how you are assessing the quality of the field in the first place, and what actually happened, or didn't happen, to each entrant during the running of the race.

[cj]

Isn't this a case of saying the field wasn't much coming out of the race rather than going in? People thought that Baffert's horse and Candy Boy were "worthy" competitors until they were whipped by CC. Now the field was supposedly weak. Maybe it should be looked at the opposite - that CC made them look weak.

He did make them look weak. I'm just pointing out that they haven't looked strong going forward either.

This is what horses have done after the San Felipe:

California Chrome, won the G1 SA Derby
Midnight Hawk, ok second in Sunland Derby, bad second in Illinois Derby
Kristo, well beaten 7th in the Wood, though the Wood was a really good race
Schoolofhardrocks, last in SA Derby
Unstoppable Colby, bad 8th in the undgraded Northern Spur at OP
Recanted, beat 2 of 10 opponents in a 25k claimer

[SecretAgentMan]

He did make them look weak. I'm just pointing out that they haven't looked strong going forward either.

This is what horses have done after the San Felipe:

California Chrome, won the G1 SA Derby
Midnight Hawk, ok second in Sunland Derby, bad second in Illinois Derby
Kristo, well beaten 7th in the Wood, though the Wood was a really good race
Schoolofhardrocks, last in SA Derby
Unstoppable Colby, bad 8th in the undgraded Northern Spur at OP
Recanted, beat 2 of 10 opponents in a 25k claimer


Cj, going forward, if Chrome wins the derby, will you say he beat a weak field? Then, if say he also wins the Preakness & has a chance at the triple crown, will people say it was a weak field or that Chrome was just tons better than any other 3 year old, only time will tell......come on derby day!

[PaceAdvantage]

The ultimate (and many) examples of flattery, that I can remember in the past 20 years, are all the horses Holy Bull beat in 1994 that came back to win a graded stakes race in their next start.

There were a LOT of them...

[SecretAgentMan]

The ultimate (and many) examples of flattery, that I can remember in the past 20 years, are all the horses Holy Bull beat in 1994 that came back to win a graded stakes race in their next start.

There were a LOT of them...


Holy Bull finished 12th by 18.5 lengths behind Go for Gin in the 1994 KD & Bull was a wire to wire horse with his winning races but Gin wired the field that day.......yes, there were a lot of good horses that year, but none the less, he couldn't win the roses.

[SecretAgentMan]

One question that I keep asking myself, does Chrome need to improve to win the derby? IMO, no.......he's just that good & if he races to the potential he's raced in his last 2 races, he will win.

[cj]

Cj, going forward, if Chrome wins the derby, will you say he beat a weak field? Then, if say he also wins the Preakness & has a chance at the triple crown, will people say it was a weak field or that Chrome was just tons better than any other 3 year old, only time will tell......come on derby day!

Yeah, that is what I'll say! Get real man, is this handicapping or cheerleading for the favorite? He is a horse. I don't dislike him or anything. I'm just looking at it from a betting standpoint. You want 5-2 in a 20 horse field, have at it. I don't.

[PaceAdvantage]

Holy Bull finished 12th by 18.5 lengths behind Go for Gin in the 1994 KD & Bull was a wire to wire horse with his winning races but Gin wired the field that day.......yes, there were a lot of good horses that year, but none the less, he couldn't win the roses.I don't understand the response.

Are you trying to say GFG was the better horse? The faster horse early?

History has proven you wrong on both counts.

Are you trying to say Holy Bull needed the lead to win?

History has proven you wrong more than once on that.

I was merely providing an extreme example of what cj was saying when applied to a star 3yo of the past.

Croll said "somebody got to Holy Bull" prior to the Derby. Based on his performance that day combined with the rest of his career (his only other flop was due to a flipped palate, and that was corrected surgically), I'm inclined to agree with his trainer's assessment on that one.

Especially when you read about ol' Doc Harthill:

"When the favorite Holy Bull ran the worst race of his brilliant career in the 1994 Derby, his trainer Jimmy Croll held Harthill responsible. Although never publicly accusing him, Croll went to his grave believing Harthill gave the Bull a dose of Halcion, a strong sedative prescribed for heart patients. His contention became public knowledge when the United States Drug Enforcement Administration eventually filed charges against Harthill for illegally possessing large quantities of prescription drugs, among them 4,000 Halcion tablets."

http://therail.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/30/the-docs-legacy-at-the-derby/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0

And for the record, Holy Bull was NEVER TESTED POST-RACE after finishing up the track as the Derby favorite...can you believe that? When questioned, the stewards basically said "ooops..."

When some say racing today is cleaner than it was in year's past, this is a case they can point to that bolsters their claim.

[Grits]

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/marylandgq/From_Springtime_Sensation_to_Derby_Disappointment_ It_Could_Happen_123#

[SecretAgentMan]

Yeah, that is what I'll say! Get real man, is this handicapping or cheerleading for the favorite? He is a horse. I don't dislike him or anything. I'm just looking at it from a betting standpoint. You want 5-2 in a 20 horse field, have at it. I don't.


I've only bet 2 favorites in my betting horses career since 1994, Smarty Jones & Big Brown......I don't bet favorites when I see other potential in the field & this year we have a very weak field.

[PhantomOnTour]

Here's my concern with Cali Chrome:

his merits are obvious - he has a big move that blows races open - and he runs good final times seemingly in a canter

My issue is pace. By my humble numbers, he will need to go faster than he has ever gone before for the first 6f if he wants to be right up on the pace (like his last 2 running lines). Samraat, to name one, is simply a quicker horse than him....not to mention a few runners from Fla who seem hell bent on the lead.
A pace bomb could explode in the Derby and take many runners out, one of which could be the favorite.

Then again, CC may just sit off a possible war and roll on by to victory.
Post position could dictate tactics, so we have to wait for the draw.

Those who are looking to play against CC aren't doing it because they think he's no good, or a sham ;) ...I think we are doing it because of circumstance and value.

[SecretAgentMan]

I don't understand the response.

Are you trying to say GFG was the better horse? The faster horse early?

History has proven you wrong on both counts.

Are you trying to say Holy Bull needed the lead to win?

History has proven you wrong more than once on that.

I was merely providing an extreme example of what cj was saying when applied to a star 3yo of the past.

Croll said "somebody got to Holy Bull" prior to the Derby. Based on his performance that day combined with the rest of his career (his only other flop was due to a flipped palate, and that was corrected surgically), I'm inclined to agree with his trainer's assessment on that one.

Especially when you read about ol' Doc Harthill:

"When the favorite Holy Bull ran the worst race of his brilliant career in the 1994 Derby, his trainer Jimmy Croll held Harthill responsible. Although never publicly accusing him, Croll went to his grave believing Harthill gave the Bull a dose of Halcion, a strong sedative prescribed for heart patients. His contention became public knowledge when the United States Drug Enforcement Administration eventually filed charges against Harthill for illegally possessing large quantities of prescription drugs, among them 4,000 Halcion tablets."

http://therail.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/30/the-docs-legacy-at-the-derby/?_php=true&_type=blogs&_r=0

And for the record, Holy Bull was NEVER TESTED POST-RACE after finishing up the track as the Derby favorite...can you believe that? When questioned, the stewards basically said "ooops..."

When some say racing today is cleaner than it was in year's past, this is a case they can point to that bolsters their claim.


Horse racing will always be shady in the sense of horses being shot up with drugs, jockeys doing crooked things, etc......bottom line is people that want to fill their pockets with money.

I myself handicap the derby differently than the Preakness & Belmont stakes. The Kentucky derby as we all know is a completely different race than any other that we handicap.

Besides the 20 horse field, there are so many other things to look at. I personally do not look at what the horses have done the race after losing to Chrome because I've studied these situations & going into the derby, they don't have much bearing in the big race.

[raybo]

You know, we hear this every year it seems, the crop is weak. There also seems to be a horse who appears to have an advantage over the "weak field", and yet they hardly ever win the Derby. So, is it because the field suddenly got stronger, or the fact that it's a 20 horse field, usually at a track that few, if any, have raced on before, a huge crowd and much for these young horses to get "weird" about, a longer distance than they have previously run, many more speed horses than normal, shipping in from all over the place, etc., etc., etc..

The fact is, California Chrome may "appear" to be the best 3yo going into the Derby, but if recent history holds, he probably won't be the best coming out of it.

[SecretAgentMan]

3 of the past 7 derby's were won by the favorite.......also, in 2006, I believe Barbaro was the ML favorite but SweetNorthernSaint went off the fav. Some Greek guy dropped couple hundred thousand on him.

[PaceAdvantage]

Besides the 20 horse field, there are so many other things to look at. I personally do not look at what the horses have done the race after losing to Chrome because I've studied these situations & going into the derby, they don't have much bearing in the big race.Well, logically, horses usually go on to flatter or not flatter the horses who have beaten them, by either doing well against fields without said horse (in this case, CC), or not doing well against fields without said horse.

It's but one tool in the toolbox to judge the quality of the competition faced by CC.

Speed figures are not earned in a vacuum. It's quite easy to run big numbers against inferior competition and illegitimate pace pressure.

[raybo]

If memory serves, in the last 33 or so Derbies, only 5 favorites have won (15%).

[SecretAgentMan]

Just read that Chitu won't be running in the derby......one less speed & possibly pace setter.

[SecretAgentMan]

If memory serves, in the last 33 or so Derbies, only 5 favorites have won (15%).

LoL........you did say recent history, no?

[Tall One]

Holy Bull finished 12th by 18.5 lengths behind Go for Gin in the 1994 KD & Bull was a wire to wire horse with his winning races but Gin wired the field that day.......yes, there were a lot of good horses that year, but none the less, he couldn't win the roses.



Holy Bull caught a sloppy/muddy track that Saturday which he obviously hated. Post race, Smith said HB was basically ice skating out there. We're going back 20 years but, iirc, his workouts leading up to the KD were less than stellar.

Bottom line is nobody went with McCarron. He was allowed to get GFG out in front on an easy lead, and they won for fun.

[mostpost]

Nice way to start a post. What did you accomplish with your first sentence? What did that add to the post? Doesn't really inspire me to respond, but I will any way. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you weren't intentionally being an ass.
All I said was that particular post did not inspire any confidence on my part. I could have called you an ass, but I didn't.

Midnight Hawk was what, 2 to 5 in the Illinois Derby? He lost to a horse that took six starts to break his maiden and was still eligible for a NW1 allowance. In my book, that is under performing. He also ran slower than he had in the past on my figures. He was 2 to 5 because of the speed he ran in California for the most part, and he didn't back it up when shipping east. That is worth noting in my opinion.
Midnight Hawk finished third to a highly regarded Candy Boy and Chitu in the Robert B. Lewis; second to California Chrome in the San Felipe and second to Chitu in the Sunland Derby in which he acquired a (Brisnet) speed figure of 100. He may very well have tailed off in the Illinois Derby, but that is relevant only to now and the future. The San Felipe was right in the middle of a series of strong races.

As far as what the horses going in had done, you are right, that is part of it. But these are three year olds that change rapidly, so I tend to look the future more than the past. That said, I was never impressed with the Oaklawn crew and have said so a few times here. They didn't run particularly fast and were all dusted by Danza. Danza ran very well, but he was huge odds for a reason going in.
I feel pretty much the same on Danza.

You haven't seen me touting the front running winners from Florida, I know that. I think Social Inclusion ran well and fast, and he backed it up in New York with a very good race. But Wildcat Red, General a Rod, Constitution...never said much good about any of them.

As for the SA Derby, saying he beat much better horses is debatable. A little better, maybe. But I didn't have Hoppertunity and Candy Boy any better than Midnight Hawk. If you're going to start talking raw fractions, sorry, you are talking to the wrong guy. I find them worthless. I also wouldn't put much stock in a frontrunner running fast late when he wins easily. You may feel differently, that is fine.
I disagree with you on Social Inclusion, particularly if you compare him with California Chrome. Social Inclusion won two races at Gulfstream in which he pretty much had everything his own way. Like you said below, "I also wouldn't put much stock in a frontrunner running fast late when he wins easily." Not only was Social Inclusion a frontrunner who one easily, he was running against maidens and allowance horses.

In the Wood he again had an unchallenged lead and did not finish all that well-he lost five lengths to Wicked Strong and a length and a half to Samraat in the final furlong.

You think the Wood was a stronger race than the Santa Anita Derby. I think the opposite. At worst they were similar in strength. You have expressed a disdain for raw fractions so we won't use them. What I have are the Brisnet Pace numbers. Here is what they tell us about the two races.
Early Pace (E1): Wood = 103; Santa Anita Derby = 103. No Difference
Middle (E2): Wood = 114; Santa Anita Derby = 110. Advantage Wood
Late Pace (LP) Wood = 86; Santa Anita Derby = 97. Bigger advantage SAD.
Brisnet Speed Figures: Wood-103; Santa Anita Derby = 106.

I know you make your own figures which people can access through TimeformUS. I know your speed figures for these two races are different from Brisnet's. I have not seen your Pace figures. Maybe Brisnet is right; maybe you are right. We shall see.

I'm a bettor. I will always look for potential flaws in the favorite, particularly in a 20 horse field with the biggest pools we'll ever see in this country available. I certainly don't know what kind of trip he'll get, as I don't with any of the other horses. But I know a tough trip is the most likely outcome for every horse, so I'm not taking a short price.
I understand wanting to get the best value, but is it not possible that in doing so, you are overemphasizing the flaws of the favorites and overvaluing the virtues of the underdogs. Value is fine but there is no value in a losing horse.

[PaceAdvantage]

mostpost, when you write replies like that, nobody can easily quote the bulk of your comments. Is that by design?

[mostpost]

Sainthood looks to be in your future...
Because a big part of sainthood is taking offense to imaginary wrongs.

[PaceAdvantage]

All I said was that particular post did not inspire any confidence on my part. I could have called you an ass, but I didn't.Is that all you did? And WHY IN THE WORLD WOULD YOU CALL HIM AN ASS (like you say you COULD)? What possible reason could you have for that?

You're supposed to be this great horse racing expert. From that post, I don't see it.What kind of response is this? cj doesn't hail himself as a great horse racing expert. cj has been NOTHING BUT GRACIOUS here with his TIME and his KNOWLEDGE. He freely gives plenty of his own opinions and data, especially when ASKED. He goes out of his way to answer questions with thoughtful replies. He puts up figures by request.

And you start out your reply like that to him? That's why he commented to you as he did. As if you need me to spell this all out for you.

Oh, and by the way? cj NEVER ventures into off-topic, as you know already. He doesn't think very highly of it... :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

Because a big part of sainthood is taking offense to imaginary wrongs.Imaginary it was not. Your response was completely uncalled for.

[dannyhill]

Did i read correctly that he said Social Inclusion had an unchallenged lead in the Wood. If so why respond at all to him?

[mostpost]

CJ is right(as usual), IMHO.


The way that California Chrome runs, and particularly if you look back to some of the races where he faced adversity, like the Golden State Juvenile on 11/01/13, it's not 1000% certain that he is willing to relax, behind horses, in the 2nd group.

If I was owning/training/betting him, I'd want to see him on the lead, or near the lead in the clear and running freely. However, it can take a lot of horse to establish that trip in the Kentucky Derby.
I don't think anyone would disagree that California Chrome is a completely different horse today than he was early in his career. How he is handling things at present is very different from how he is handling them now. I think it is a mistake to use a race that far back and extrapolate to the present.

[Clocker]

mostpost, when you write replies like that, nobody can easily quote the bulk of your comments. Is that by design?

If you quote another post, if that post included a quote, that previous quote (and any comments added to it inside the quote brackets) does not appear in your post. Only the text outside the quote brackets appears in the quote in the new post.

[SecretAgentMan]

Chrome has already shown he can rate......I am not one bit worried about it. The horses people should worry about are the deep closers that will incur traffic problems.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Chrome has already shown he can rate......I am not one bit worried about it. The horses people should worry about are the deep closers that will incur traffic problems.

I thought it was the cheap speed that caused traffic problems after a mile of running?

[mostpost]

mostpost, when you write replies like that, nobody can easily quote the bulk of your comments. Is that by design?
I do that when responding to a post with several different ideas so that it is clear which idea I am responding to. Could you suggest a better way to do this?

[PaceAdvantage]

Break the quote up, like I and others often do.

[mostpost]

Nice way to start a post. What did you accomplish with your first sentence? What did that add to the post? Doesn't really inspire me to respond, but I will any way. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you weren't intentionally being an ass.

Midnight Hawk was what, 2 to 5 in the Illinois Derby? He lost to a horse that took six starts to break his maiden and was still eligible for a NW1 allowance. In my book, that is under performing. He also ran slower than he had in the past on my figures. He was 2 to 5 because of the speed he ran in California for the most part, and he didn't back it up when shipping east. That is worth noting in my opinion.

As far as what the horses going in had done, you are right, that is part of it. But these are three year olds that change rapidly, so I tend to look the future more than the past. That said, I was never impressed with the Oaklawn crew and have said so a few times here. They didn't run particularly fast and were all dusted by Danza. Danza ran very well, but he was huge odds for a reason going in.

You haven't seen me touting the front running winners from Florida, I know that. I think Social Inclusion ran well and fast, and he backed it up in New York with a very good race. But Wildcat Red, General a Rod, Constitution...never said much good about any of them.

As for the SA Derby, saying he beat much better horses is debatable. A little better, maybe. But I didn't have Hoppertunity and Candy Boy any better than Midnight Hawk. If you're going to start talking raw fractions, sorry, you are talking to the wrong guy. I find them worthless. I also wouldn't put much stock in a frontrunner running fast late when he wins easily. You may feel differently, that is fine.

I'm a bettor. I will always look for potential flaws in the favorite, particularly in a 20 horse field with the biggest pools we'll ever see in this country available. I certainly don't know what kind of trip he'll get, as I don't with any of the other horses. But I know a tough trip is the most likely outcome for every horse, so I'm not taking a short price.
My response in #174 reposted in hopefully a more pleasing format.

All I said was that particular post did not inspire any confidence on my part. I could have called you an ass, but I didn't.

Midnight Hawk finished third to a highly regarded Candy Boy and Chitu in the Robert B. Lewis; second to California Chrome in the San Felipe and second to Chitu in the Sunland Derby in which he acquired a (Brisnet) speed figure of 100. He may very well have tailed off in the Illinois Derby, but that is relevant only to now and the future. The San Felipe was right in the middle of a series of strong races.

I disagree with you on Social Inclusion, particularly if you compare him with California Chrome. Social Inclusion won two races at Gulfstream in which he pretty much had everything his own way. Like you said below, "I also wouldn't put much stock in a frontrunner running fast late when he wins easily." Not only was Social Inclusion a frontrunner who one easily, he was running against maidens and allowance horses.

In the Wood he again had an unchallenged lead and did not finish all that well-he lost five lengths to Wicked Strong and a length and a half to Samraat in the final furlong.

You think the Wood was a stronger race than the Santa Anita Derby. I think the opposite. At worst they were similar in strength. You have expressed a disdain for raw fractions so we won't use them. What I have are the Brisnet Pace numbers. Here is what they tell us about the two races.
Early Pace (E1): Wood = 103; Santa Anita Derby = 103. No Difference
Middle (E2): Wood = 114; Santa Anita Derby = 110. Advantage Wood
Late Pace (LP) Wood = 86; Santa Anita Derby = 97. Bigger advantage SAD.
Brisnet Speed Figures: Wood-103; Santa Anita Derby = 106.

I know you make your own figures which people can access through TimeformUS. I know your speed figures for these two races are different from Brisnet's. I have not seen your Pace figures. Maybe Brisnet is right; maybe you are right. We shall see.

I understand wanting to get the best value, but is it not possible that in doing so, you are overemphasizing the flaws of the favorites and overvaluing the virtues of the underdogs. Value is fine but there is no value in a losing horse.

[SecretAgentMan]

IMO, Santa Anita derby was a better & tougher race than the Wood.. . ..I see a lot of people saying & touting Wicked Strong is a good horse, we shall see in the derby but I don't think he hits the board.

[mostpost]

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/marylandgq/From_Springtime_Sensation_to_Derby_Disappointment_ It_Could_Happen_123#

I think the history of horse racing is fascinating. But as they say "past results are not necessarily indicative of future outcomes." Understand, I do not mean that a particular horse's past performances are not vital in determining what he might do in today's race. I mean what Bodemeister or Ballamy Road or Curlin did years ago has no effect on what California Chrome might do on the first Saturday in May 2014.

California Chrome's "romp" in the Santa Anita Derby was the most recent of four improving races-all stakes races. Was that true of any of the horses listed in your link? I tried to find out, but could not.

I do know that Bodemeister had finished second in the San Felipe prior to the Arkansas Derby. And I know that Bellamy Road's race previous to the Wood was at Gulfstream Park on Mar. 5, 2005. I don't recall that Bellamy Road was considered an outstanding colt prior to the Wood. He was 5/2 against an undistinguished field.

[SecretAgentMan]

Bellamy Road won his last 2 races before the derby, one by 15 3/4 lengths receiving a 96 beyer in an Allowance race X2 at Gulfstream at 1 mile & then won a G1 race by 17 1/2 lengths in the Wood getting a 120 beyer. He also switched trainers before winning those 2 races after finishing 7th by 12 lengths in a G1 race at Keenland as a 2 year old. I personally didn't like him at all & thought he was a phony pre-derby & I was right.

Bodemeister was a good horse that needed more foundation. Then again, both of these horses love being on the front end.

Bode & Curlin never raced as a 2 year old as well.......Street Sense was a seasoned horse & loved Churchill, as he had won by 10 lengths there before the derby.

Curlin was a nice horse as well but its difficult to win the derby on a lighly raced horse, with exception to Big Brown who was a man amongst boys entertrring the derby & as we all saw, the competition was weak as the filly Eight Belles finished 2nd.

[Tom]

In the Wood he again had an unchallenged lead and did not finish all that well-he lost five lengths to Wicked Strong and a length and a half to Samraat in the final furlong.

I don't think that truly describes his trip in the Wood at all.

[cj]

Did i read correctly that he said Social Inclusion had an unchallenged lead in the Wood. If so why respond at all to him?

I did find that rather funny to be honest.

[mostpost]

I did find that rather funny to be honest.
Upon further review. That will teach me to not rely on memory and review the video before posting. It is true that Schiaverellli was running with Social Inclusion through the first half to three quarters. SI did kick away rather comfortably on the turn. He did not give Wicked Strong much of a battle in the stretch.

[SecretAgentMan]

Possible rain for the 140th derby.........as we get closer to derby day & post draw, I want to watch & see what the owners & trainer says about Chrome running in the slop, that's if it does rain hard.

[ten2oneormore]

Sorry man but I have bitten my tongue quite a few times during your posting binge the last few weeks.You went from this

If I'm.not mistaken, doesn't Chrome have better times in his last 2 races than Smarty Jones did in any of his races or Big Brown?


Saying Smarty Jones and Big Brown beat no one,were just peaking at the right time , and lucky.To now using them as a template for what a good horse is and the only 2 favorites you ever bet.




Pro Prado ran 3rd to Smarty Jones 3 straight races before finishing 13th by 20 lengths in the derby.

Borrego was 2nd to Smarty in one race before finishing 10th by 16.5 lengths in the derby........

You can't blame a good gorse for running against bad horses. Good horses usually beat any horse you put in the field against him/her. ......

Eight Belles finished 2nd to Big Brown in the 2008 derby.....there's a reason why the trainer stuck a filly in with the boys & the best 3 year old Big Brown.

I'm not saying its not good to cap a race on what the horses behind Chrome have done......I use that logic in smaller tracks. I don't think that logic works well in the triple crown races.

This is the most knowledgeable horse racing forum on the internet.It's pretty obvious who is knowledgeable and who just uses the resources at their fingertips.Like raw times making California Chrome better than Big Brown or Smarty Jones.


with exception to Big Brown who was a man amongst boys entertrring the derby

This is kind of exactly what I said to which you said he beat no one,was peaking,and lucky.
Then CJ showed you his figures and the 180 began.

I'm not trying to start an argument because you are just excited as many are this time of year.You can learn a great deal from many people here instead of just spewing the first thought that comes to your head or facts you looked up.

[SecretAgentMan]

Sorry man but I have bitten my tongue quite a few times during your posting binge the last few weeks.You went from this



Saying Smarty Jones and Big Brown beat no one,were just peaking at the right time , and lucky.To now using them as a template for what a good horse is and the only 2 favorites you ever bet.






This is the most knowledgeable horse racing forum on the internet.It's pretty obvious who is knowledgeable and who just uses the resources at their fingertips.Like raw times making California Chrome better than Big Brown or Smarty Jones.




This is kind of exactly what I said to which you said he beat no one,was peaking,and lucky.
Then CJ showed you his figures and the 180 began.

I'm not trying to start an argument because you are just excited as many are this time of year.You can learn a great deal from many people here instead of just spewing the first thought that comes to your head or facts you looked up.


I could care less what others think of me.......I cap the way I do while others cap the way they do. If I said Smarty & Brown got lucky to win, I must have been drink because those horses were really good. I also believe those 2 Yeats had weak fields like I do this year as well. That's why I said there was no one good to beat.

You want to talk a good field, 1997 had great horses, 1998 had decent ones......2001 had really good ones.

Also, I cap with raw times & it hasn't failed me yet......everyone else can use calculus & any other math equations to figure out the times.......I will use what hasn't failed me yet.

You don't have to bite your tongue, speak your mind, its a forum. Just because we don't agree on things doesn't mean we can't have a civilized discussion.

Also, what figures did Cj show me, only figures I look at are beyer speed figures & the drf past performances. I also look st Brisnet but I hate using their speed figs.

[cj]

Upon further review. That will teach me to not rely on memory and review the video before posting. It is true that Schiaverellli was running with Social Inclusion through the first half to three quarters. SI did kick away rather comfortably on the turn. He did not give Wicked Strong much of a battle in the stretch.

We can't remember everything, no biggie. He also was pretty wide through the first turn, which in my opinion was the hottest part of the race. That is why I feel it was a really good effort.

[Cratos]

I could care less what others think of me.......I cap the way I do while others cap the way they do. If I said Smarty & Brown got lucky to win, I must have been drink because those horses were really good. I also believe those 2 Yeats had weak fields like I do this year as well. That's why I said there was no one good to beat.

You want to talk a good field, 1997 had great horses, 1998 had decent ones......2001 had really good ones.

Also, I cap with raw times & it hasn't failed me yet......everyone else can use calculus & any other math equations to figure out the times.......I will use what hasn't failed me yet.

You don't have to bite your tongue, speak your mind, its a forum. Just because we don't agree on things doesn't mean we can't have a civilized discussion.

Also, what figures did Cj show me, only figures I look at are beyer speed figures & the drf past performances. I also look st Brisnet but I hate using their speed figs.


You have convinced me that you are an ardent California Chrome fan and I admire your enthusiasm, but your understanding of the Kentucky Derby history is suspect at best; at least to me.

For instance, you stated that I'll Have Another and Super Saver were closers in their respective Derby winning efforts, but the official charts show them as “pressers.” A small oversight, but you published another incorrect item when you stated that Monarchos broke Secretariat’s 1973 Derby record for the 1 ¼ mile distance. Maybe you were confused by the common fraction timing of the Derby in 1973 and the decimal fraction timing of the Derby in 2001.

Therefore I believe your exuberance for California Chrome has you looking through “rose-colored glasses.”

I should know because in 1978 I was a die-heart Alydar fan and did not believe he could/would lose to Affirmed, but he did; 3 times in a row.

[lamboguy]

You have convinced me that you are an ardent California Chrome fan and I admire your enthusiasm, but your understanding of the Kentucky Derby history is suspect at best; at least to me.

For instance, you stated that I'll Have Another and Super Saver were closers in their respective Derby winning efforts, but the official charts show them as “pressers.” A small oversight, but you published another incorrect item when you stated that Monarchos broke Secretariat’s 1973 Derby record for the 1 ¼ mile distance. Maybe you were confused by the common fraction timing of the Derby in 1973 and the decimal fraction timing of the Derby in 2001.

Therefore I believe your exuberance for California Chrome has you looking through “rose-colored glasses.”

I should know because in 1978 I was a die-heart Alydar fan and did not believe he could/would lose to Affirmed, but he did; 3 times in a row.
i was right there with you on ALYDAR. i loved him so much for years and couldn't believe to this day he lost all 3 races.

I got my money back about 9 years, i was buying horses by WHEATON that turned out to be a pretty decent offspring of his.

[SecretAgentMan]

You have convinced me that you are an ardent California Chrome fan and I admire your enthusiasm, but your understanding of the Kentucky Derby history is suspect at best; at least to me.

For instance, you stated that I'll Have Another and Super Saver were closers in their respective Derby winning efforts, but the official charts show them as “pressers.” A small oversight, but you published another incorrect item when you stated that Monarchos broke Secretariat’s 1973 Derby record for the 1 ¼ mile distance. Maybe you were confused by the common fraction timing of the Derby in 1973 and the decimal fraction timing of the Derby in 2001.

Therefore I believe your exuberance for California Chrome has you looking through “rose-colored glasses.”

I should know because in 1978 I was a die-heart Alydar fan and did not believe he could/would lose to Affirmed, but he did; 3 times in a row.


I said Monarchos had tied the record but yes, I am wrong......Secretariats time was 1:59.40 & Monarchos was 1:59.97.........

I do love Chrome a lot but I still want to see the post positions. I see a lot of hype on TVG about Wicked Strong & I don't buy it.

[clocker7]

I would never get too exercised about this race. The way it is presently run makes it more of a crapshoot than ever. It always challenged prognosticators throughout its history and now it is tougher than ever. Besides the standard problem of predicting how 9 furlong youngsters will respond to 10f early in the season, and the present-day 20-horse traffic jams, the race is fuller of those whose breeding will defeat them. It's guesswork that doesn't resemble any other type of handicapping that bettors normally involve themselves with.

Sure, there will be lucky gamblers or those who bet 1/3 of the field in gimmicks. So what? The next four years, they will be conquered by another set of dart throwers that will wear the genius crown for 12 months.

Seattle Slew nearly was beaten by a split second of bad luck in a field 4-5 horses smaller than what runs now, getting out of jail by possessing elite early speed and a bulldog disposition. So lay your money on California Chrome accordingly. I like him a lot. But only as something to watch and enjoy.

[ultracapper]

I would never get too exercised about this race. The way it is presently run makes it more of a crapshoot than ever. It always challenged prognosticators throughout its history and now it is tougher than ever. Besides the standard problem of predicting how 9 furlong youngsters will respond to 10f early in the season, and the present-day 20-horse traffic jams, the race is fuller of those whose breeding will defeat them. It's guesswork that doesn't resemble any other type of handicapping that bettors normally involve themselves with.

Sure, there will be lucky gamblers or those who bet 1/3 of the field in gimmicks. So what? The next four years, they will be conquered by another set of dart throwers that will wear the genius crown for 12 months.

Seattle Slew nearly was beaten by a split second of bad luck in a field 4-5 horses smaller than what runs now, getting out of jail by possessing elite early speed and a bulldog disposition. So lay your money on California Chrome accordingly. I like him a lot. But only as something to watch and enjoy.

For about 25 years I have played $100 on the KD, every year. I play a $2 5 horse xbox and $1 tribox with the same horses. Hit it 3 times. Unbridled/Summer Squall, Funny Cide and the Frankels, and I'll Have Another/Bode. Total crap shoot. Has been my entire handicapping life.

[ultracapper]

BTW, I will have CC on my ticket this year. I don't think I've ever tossed the SAD winner, the Wood winner, or the FLAD winner.

[ultracapper]

And my favorite post in this whole thread..............

Peace Rules was a hired rabbit. LOVE IT!!!

[ten2oneormore]

I could care less what others think of me.......I cap the way I do while others cap the way they do. If I said Smarty & Brown got lucky to win, I must have been drink because those horses were really good. I also believe those 2 Yeats had weak fields like I do this year as well. That's why I said there was no one good to beat.

You want to talk a good field, 1997 had great horses, 1998 had decent ones......2001 had really good ones.

Also, I cap with raw times & it hasn't failed me yet......everyone else can use calculus & any other math equations to figure out the times.......I will use what hasn't failed me yet.

You don't have to bite your tongue, speak your mind, its a forum. Just because we don't agree on things doesn't mean we can't have a civilized discussion.

Also, what figures did Cj show me, only figures I look at are beyer speed figures & the drf past performances. I also look st Brisnet but I hate using their speed figs.



I bit my tongue because arguing on message boards about matters of opinion is redundant.It struck a nerve though when you were first saying "IMO, Chrome is better than Big Brown going into this derby....".I thought that was ridiculous and said so which lead to you questioning my understanding of the game.Followed by you using raw times across different tracks and decades as evidence.Then this gem

Smarty's 1st q mile in Ark derby was :46, Big Browns was :45, definitely faster paces up front than Chromes 1st q mile but the final time of Chrome was better. IMO, if Espinoza doesn't slow Chrome down in the stretch, the final time IMO is 1:45.......

Then CJ posted his figs for the races leading up to the derby and


gotta love those 120's in Smarty Jones & Big Brown.

180
Now they are your poster horses for what a great horse is.

It's not whether or not you care what people think of you.It's about not watering down the board with useless drivel.I would imagine many here like to read thoughtful discussion as I do.

You will gain a lot more from listening what some of the posters here say rather than just firing back with the help of google or equibase.

For instance raw times.You are 100% wrong.The make up of every single track is different and even the make up of the same track changes from day to day and sometimes race to race.Would you compare horse A who ran a mile on the beach to horse B who ran a mile on the asphalt?If it hasn't failed you yet then you haven't been doing it that long.

[SecretAgentMan]

^^^^^


Yes, you're right & I'm wrong.......time to move on & find your horse for the derby with your calculated times & algorithms.

I will just throw darts at a board, its done me well do far :)

The derby is a completely different animal than any other horse race you will ever bet on, so don't treat it like any other race.

[onefast99]

I disagree with you on Social Inclusion, particularly if you compare him with California Chrome. Social Inclusion won two races at Gulfstream in which he pretty much had everything his own way. Like you said below, "I also wouldn't put much stock in a frontrunner running fast late when he wins easily." Not only was Social Inclusion a frontrunner who one easily, he was running against maidens and allowance horses.

Honor Code is an allowance horse a pretty decent one also, look at castellano he was all over Honor Code as SI just widened the gap between them. Take another look at the Wood and let me know how SI really ran!

[onefast99]

We can't remember everything, no biggie. He also was pretty wide through the first turn, which in my opinion was the hottest part of the race. That is why I feel it was a really good effort.
I agree with you 100% SI was tested the entire trip while Wicked Strong sat in a great spot saving ground the entire way before coming down the middle of the track that wasn't half as deep as the rail!

[ultracapper]

FWIW, I thought Smarty Jones was the most deserving of all the "almost did it" Belmont losers. I thought he ran a bang up Belmont. Followed closely by, of course, Real Quiet, and then Afleet Alex. His Derby run was a shame.

If CC pulls off the Derby, I'll be rooting like hell for him to do it. Art Sherman is a cool guy and he's really put this horse on display. No cauddling, just got him ready last spring and let him grow into a hell of a nice race horse.

The thing about Real Quiet is that Stevens rode the Derby favorite for Baffert, then beats him in the Belmont. Horse racing.....GOTTA LOVE IT.

[SecretAgentMan]

The thing about Real Quiet is that Stevens rode the Derby favorite for Baffert, then beats him in the Belmont. Horse racing.....GOTTA LOVE IT.


Man do I remember that race..... I was at my sisters house for a cookout & I had bet Victory Gallop the night before at the OTB. Reason why I liked him so much was Stevens got on him & I figured if Stevens was denied the triple crown the year before, he would try his hardest not yo let the "kid" win it on Real Quiet.

I didn't expect a race like that tho, I really thought Real Quiet had won being up several lengths by the time VG reached the wire & both were nose for nose, my head was spinning.

What a dramatic finish & the sad part was they might have taken Real Quiet down for bumping & coming over into VG. VG going off at 9-2 & winning by a nose was awesome, then again, that's the closest we have gotten to the triple crown since the 70's.

Horse racing needs a triple crown winner & whether it will be Chrome remains to be seen.

[BettinBilly]

My unknown here with Chrome is that the horse has never shipped.

Longest he has traveled to date is a few hours over the road in his home state.

I would be curious to know from anyone with Training experience if there should even be a concern with Chrome long-haul air shipping for the first time.

[SecretAgentMan]

My unknown here with Chrome is that the horse has never shipped.

Longest he has traveled to date is a few hours over the road in his home state.

I would be curious to know from anyone with Training experience if there should even be a concern with Chrome long-haul air shipping for the first time.

Watch to see what the trainers & everyone else says about how Chrome looks at Churchill & how he's galloping, it should give you a bit knowing of how he handled the transfer.

[raybo]

My main concern, with CC and several others, if not all, is how they will handle the huge crowd and 19 other starters, and the "assumed" hot pace up front, with all the accompanying traffic problems of the closers, to say nothing of the possibility of a wet/off track. But then, that's the beauty of the Derby, and the reason one can "get lucky(?)" and make a big score!

[BettinBilly]

I hear that Raybo. I have never made a "Big" score at the Derby. Largest was just over $500. Looking to change that this year for sure.

Thanks for the advice S.A.M. I was watching an interview with his Trainer today on "Pursuit of the Crown" and he is not going to work him much at C.D.
In fact, Chrome is not even there yet. He said just a few 2 mile gallops and that's all. He wants Chrome to relax an just "Be a Horse". :) Well, if he Wins the Derby, he won't "Just be a Horse".

[SecretAgentMan]

My main concern, with CC and several others, if not all, is how they will handle the huge crowd and 19 other starters, and the "assumed" hot pace up front, with all the accompanying traffic problems of the closers, to say nothing of the possibility of a wet/off track. But then, that's the beauty of the Derby, and the reason one can "get lucky(?)" and make a big score!


Chrome is used to being around horses, that won't be a problem at all. Sherman said when Chrome works out alone now because of an incident, he stands there & looks around like, where's everyone at, lol.

As for the pace, IMO, Espinoza is a good jockey & knows exactly what to do in the derby. He's been there before & has won.

Will Espinoza move Chrome too early because of the pace pressure? It all remains to be seen but I do know that Chrome has push button acceleration, something most in the race do not.

[Bullet Plane]

Chrome is used to being around horses, that won't be a problem at all. Sherman said when Chrome works out alone now because of an incident, he stands there & looks around like, where's everyone at, lol.

As for the pace, IMO, Espinoza is a good jockey & knows exactly what to do in the derby. He's been there before & has won.

Will Espinoza move Chrome too early because of the pace pressure? It all remains to be seen but I do know that Chrome has push button acceleration, something most in the race do not.


Pound that chalk!

You ever heard of the term "underlay"?

[SecretAgentMan]

Pound that chalk!

You ever heard of the term "underlay"?


Yes.......but I rather cash a winning ticket thinking no one can beat the best rather than throw away a ticket trying to beat the favorite just because people think there's no value in cashing a ticket when a favorite wins, especially the best horse in the race.

When looking for the derby horse, I look for the horse that will give me the best possible chance of winning, whether he/she is 5-2 or 30-1.

In 2001, did the fav Point Given look good on paper? Yes he did but I tossed him out of all my exotics because he had peaked way too soon IMO & I played Monarchos because he looked like the horse that was ready to pop a big win. Although Point Given went on to win the Preakness & Belmont in super fashion, Monarchos never won another race.

Did Chrome peak too soon? Heck no, he's just getting started, watch the videos of the exercise rider & Espinoza talk about him.

4 of the past 10 derby's were won by favs & Barbaro was the ML fav.........its about cashing tickets, not throwing away your money because a person always trying to beat the favorite is like a person always betting the favorite.

Go look at how much the supers paid with Smarty Jones & Big Brown........look at last years exacta with the fav Orb winning........

[onefast99]

I'm sure cc will do well in one of the three TC races but I don't think it will be the Derby. I also gave you the winner of the Preakness, it will be Social Inclusion, mark it down.

[SecretAgentMan]

I'm sure cc will do well in one of the three TC races but I don't think it will be the Derby. I also gave you the winner of the Preakness, it will be Social Inclusion, mark it down.



Since 1980, the horse that ran in the Santa Anita derby with a finishing time of less than 1:48 has gone on to win the KD 5 of the 7 times in this scenario & 4 of these horses have gone on to win the Preakness (Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Real Quiet, I'll Have Another)

I will tell you one thing, there will be a lot of speed in the Preakness!

[BettinBilly]

.....but I rather cash a winning ticket thinking no one can beat the best rather than throw away a ticket trying to beat the favorite just because people think there's no value in cashing a ticket when a favorite wins, especially the best horse in the race.....


That's fairly profound, S.A.M.

I like it. I may stash that one in the vernacular library to pull out some time when my buddies at the track razz me for betting a fave once in a while.

[Tall One]

Did Chrome peak too soon? Heck no


I'm not sure we know this yet..

He hasn't raced against the other, what...15, 16, 17 other east coast interests? Lot of unknowns here, SAM. Just saying.


Also, the 1980 thing? We're talking 34 years..

[SecretAgentMan]

I'm not sure we know this yet..

He hasn't raced against the other, what...15, 16, 17 other east coast interests? Lot of unknowns here, SAM. Just saying.


Also, the 1980 thing? We're talking 34 years..


There is always a lot of unknowns before the derby, hence the price you will receive on the winning derby horse but mainly because of the huge pool.

Silver Charm 1997, RQ in 1998 & IHA in 2012 so its not too old :)



Hey, I know this race is as much fun to try & find the winner as it is to cash the ticket. With a 20 horse field, there are tons of possibilities & anything & everything can go wrong. I'm just glad Chrome has really good tactical speed which helps in the derby.

There are several big trends against Chrome, one being no cal bred has won the derby in 52 years.

[Tall One]

I had RQ in '98, and SC in '97...I LOVED Silver Charm. He is behind Alysheba and Easy Goer on my top-5 all time I've seen in person..AP Indy, and Zenyata my other two.

Man, it's anybody's race. We got the weather, let alone that little draw they got this week...The opinions and every other angle we all share on here make this board the best... :cool:

[breezing]

we may get some rain tonight and he's scheduled to work in the morning. i'm going to assume he'll hit the track after reno like last week at about 8:00 am. the dirt at los al feels like it contains a slightly higher percent of silt and clay than SA. will be interesting to see how it feels tomorrow if we do get some significant precipitation and how he handles it.

[TMQ]

There is always a lot of unknowns before the derby, hence the price you will receive on the winning derby horse but mainly because of the huge pool.

Silver Charm 1997, RQ in 1998 & IHA in 2012 so its not too old :)



Hey, I know this race is as much fun to try & find the winner as it is to cash the ticket. With a 20 horse field, there are tons of possibilities & anything & everything can go wrong. I'm just glad Chrome has really good tactical speed which helps in the derby.

There are several big trends against Chrome, one being no cal bred has won the derby in 52 years.
I get so tired of the "no California horse has won in 52 years" I have a question........ How many California breds have ran in the derby the past 52 years?

[SecretAgentMan]

I get so tired of the "no California horse has won in 52 years" I have a question........ How many California breds have ran in the derby the past 52 years?


Not many......just like the media hyped up Funny Cide being from NY........its all hype & I typed it that way but I know Chrome is such a good horse, that he can break any small or big trend .

[clocker7]

In 2001, did the fav Point Given look good on paper? Yes he did but I tossed him out of all my exotics because he had peaked way too soon IMO .....
I'm not too sure how you arrived at that pre-race, and would like to hear more.

What I still recall (and I doubt that it is false memory) from the broadcast was Point Given acting up badly while in the process of being brought over. I can still picture--via a telephoto shot--of him rearing more than once, even before he stepped onto the track. Again, I am open to correction, but I think I'm right here. He was my choice, until I saw that. Instead, I passed altogether.

His subsequent smashers would lead me to use him as an example of an excitable horse not handling the Derby scene well, rather than one that had the wrong timing.

[breezing]

Beautiful morning, lots of folks out to see him work.

[SecretAgentMan]

I started watching the derby in 1991 & betting it in 1994 & always made my picks by the past performances & just started to watch the workouts in 2003 to toss horses on how they look after a friend of mine who is a trainer in a small track told me about what to look for........

Back in the mid to late 90's it was so easy to pick the winner.......just bet the top trainers. As for Point Given, you made great points o how he looked but I wasn't looking into those situations yet until 2003.

For me, the racing form had me studying & hoping to get lucky enough to figure out who was ready to pop a big race. Monarcho's stalked & closed on Congaree the whole way around track in the Wood & was closing on him but wasn't gonna waste his energy to catch him, it was primarily a workout getting ready for the derby.

Point Given had just won 3 races & was on fire & imo, peaked before the big race.......then again, maybe the jockey held him back? I don't know, but he won the Preakness & Belmont impressively.

[SecretAgentMan]

Beautiful morning, lots of folks out to see him work.


Are you actually at Los Al?

[breezing]

Are you actually at Los Al?
Yes.

[SecretAgentMan]

How does Chrome look out there? I bet he's all business when the jockey gets on him.......

[breezing]

He looks good, very professional. To be honest I have not seen victor really get on him during workouts.

[SecretAgentMan]

I keep seeing people saying there are uncertainties about Chrome, how he will handle dirt kicked in his face, etc.......his connections & trainer are confident enough to know what they have & capable of doing things we only can guess at.

These questions always are asked before the derby until the horse proves everyone asking those questions wrong.......it happened with Real Quiet, Thunder Gulch, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, etc......

There are horses like Gemologist that are terrible undefeated horses.......he had some of the worst times at the distances he raced. He was an easy toss for me.

Is the 2014 crop weak? Besides Chrome getting better with every race & coming into his own, we have a few horses that were good from the get go.

Wild Card Red is on of the best 3 year olds from the start of his career up to his last prep race but I think he peaked too soon but I still believe if he gets a decent post in the derby, he will fight & grind it out to the wire.

Will this be another 2004 result, Lion Heart (WildCardRed) go out & set the pace & Smarty Jones (Chrome) catches the pace setter & wins?

[SecretAgentMan]

He looks good, very professional. To be honest I have not seen victor really get on him during workouts.

Yeah, I meant to type exercise rider but typed jockey, lol.

The connections & trainer & everyone that has talked about Chrome says what you say, he's very professional & I love hearing that.......

[lamboguy]

the work looked great on television. not that i should ever doubt a 77 year old trainer, but i like his shipping plans. i am happy he is waiting until monday to ship.

the next steps are going to be how he arrives and goes over the track, what post position he draws and how he reacts to the large crowd next saturday. he was great for the Santa Anita derby.

as bettors we all tend to go against horses like this and try to find excuses. so far there are no excuses that warrant a go against. 8/5 might be a bargain on him.

[depalma113]

That work pretty much sealed it. They rest are running for second.

[Rex Phinney]

That work pretty much sealed it. They rest are running for second.

Are you being sarcastic?

You guys have way overblown this horse, I am a huge supporter of the horse.

I've watched him run live several times and don't think I can bet against him in the derby but Jesus Christ some of you guys are too much. You are disrespecting the fact that it's a 20 horse field over a track this horse has never been on.

Some of the derby week bandwagon talk is getting steep. Makes me want to just get on with the race already.

[raybo]

I'm with you Rex, the horse definitely looks best on paper, but this is the Derby we're talking about, not the Preakness. There are some very talented horses going to the post next Saturday, CC is just one of them.

[SecretAgentMan]

Are you being sarcastic?

You guys have way overblown this horse, I am a huge supporter of the horse.

I've watched him run live several times and don't think I can bet against him in the derby but Jesus Christ some of you guys are too much. You are disrespecting the fact that it's a 20 horse field over a track this horse has never been on.

Some of the derby week bandwagon talk is getting steep. Makes me want to just get on with the race already.


So what you're really saying is you're laying 5k across the board on Chrome? :)

[Will Power]

I've seen a lot of requests for information on how Cal Bred horses have done in the Kentucky Derby. Here is 16 years worth of data.

http://www.derbyanalysis.com/Admin/MySiteImages/WhereBred.PNG

[nijinski]

The work
http://youtu.be/XMThhGAd6Mc

[ArlJim78]

Are you being sarcastic?

You guys have way overblown this horse, I am a huge supporter of the horse.

I've watched him run live several times and don't think I can bet against him in the derby but Jesus Christ some of you guys are too much. You are disrespecting the fact that it's a 20 horse field over a track this horse has never been on.

Some of the derby week bandwagon talk is getting steep. Makes me want to just get on with the race already.
he said the rest are running for second, you said that you don't think you can bet against him. how is that any different?

[Hoofless_Wonder]

The work
http://youtu.be/XMThhGAd6Mc

I'm not an professional workout analyzer, nor do I play one on TV, but I did not find that work super impressive.

CC showed the quickness of a waterbug when darting away from the lead pony, and he was never asked to run, but he doesn't seem to have the longer, fluid stride I like to see in routers. He does, however, seem to have a very efficient action, and he certainly has the muscles.

I've bet one of the top 2 choices in 10 out of the last 28 Derbies, but CC won't get any love from me, unless speed is holding up very, very well next Sat at CD.

[Smarty Cide]

I'm not an professional workout analyzer, nor do I play one on TV, but I did not find that work super impressive.

CC showed the quickness of a waterbug when darting away from the lead pony, and he was never asked to run, but he doesn't seem to have the longer, fluid stride I like to see in routers. He does, however, seem to have a very efficient action, and he certainly has the muscles.

I've bet one of the top 2 choices in 10 out of the last 28 Derbies, but CC won't get any love from me, unless speed is holding up very, very well next Sat at CD.

thanks in advance for the money man



i wonder how a lot of you guys going against california chrome bet the 2008 derby with big brown? think its pretty similar... 1 horse far better then the rest and it obvious.. the trip is the only thing that can stop him... not the pace, and not getting outrun by any of these horses... hes far and away better

[TMQ]

thanks in advance for the money man



i wonder how a lot of you guys going against california chrome bet the 2008 derby with big brown? think its pretty similar... 1 horse far better then the rest and it obvious.. the trip is the only thing that can stop him... not the pace, and not getting outrun by any of these horses... hes far and away better
You cant honestly be comparing Big Brown to California chrome..... Big Brown had never lost a race going into the derby. He showed true class in the Florida Derby, winning easily in a tough group. Chromeo has never left California. On top of that he has never ran at a track that was not blistering fast. Big Brown was an epic horse, California Chrome needs to show me he can win somewhere besides Santa Anita before I take him seriously...

[BettinBilly]

I'm still concerned about a few issues with Chrome. One of them being this is his first Air-Ship. May not be a big deal, but I want to see how he looks after arriving - how he handles his minor workouts (as his Trainer put it) after arriving - and how he appears on Derby Day.

Also concerned a bit about his routing ability - as Hoofless put it. Not a huge deal, but it's in the back of my mind.

I'm not against betting him, but as of today, I'm hedging.

I probably won't know until Derby Day.

[SecretAgentMan]

You cant honestly be comparing Big Brown to California chrome..... Big Brown had never lost a race going into the derby. He showed true class in the Florida Derby, winning easily in a tough group. Chromeo has never left California. On top of that he has never ran at a track that was not blistering fast. Big Brown was an epic horse, California Chrome needs to show me he can win somewhere besides Santa Anita before I take him seriously...


You will take him seriously after he wins the derby as well as everyone else & he's 4-5 in the Preakness..........

Silver Charm (I had him) never left California & neither did Giacomo (I didn't have him).......Real Quiet ran his first 2 races at Churchill & came in 7th & 3rd & went back to Cali to race until going to the derby.

Cali horses & their trainers seem to like staying in Cali until derby time, I would never hold that against a solid horse like Chrome.

[Rex Phinney]

You will take him seriously after he wins the derby as well as everyone else & he's 4-5 in the Preakness..........

See this is exactly the kind of propaganda I'm talking about, I will be betting on him but I don't need to compare him to big brown or tell everyone how low his odds will be in the Preakness.

It's all the big talk and hype that leads "I told you so" and excuses after the race. He is a good horse and a great story just let it be and leave the hype at the door.

Some of you guys crack me up, you are pounding your chest and setting yourself up to have the derby winner, problem is he is going to be the heaviest favorite in years, so it's not like you've cracked some tough race. We are all on the ride together quit making yourself out to be a handicapping genius because you had the 3-1 favorite

[SecretAgentMan]

Rex, you don't know any of us......you act like we bet favorites every year. If I'm not mistaken, this is a racing forum, hence the talk about who we like & are betting & I'm not pounding my chest, lol!

I'm just as comfortable as the owners of this horse & they guaranteed a derby win :)

[raybo]

Rex, you don't know any of us......you act like we bet favorites every year. If I'm not mistaken, this is a racing forum, hence the talk about who we like & are betting & I'm not pounding my chest, lol!

I'm just as comfortable as the owners of this horse & they guaranteed a derby win :)

Are you guaranteeing a Derby win? I don't remember the connections guaranteeing a Derby win, either.