The Wait Is Over....

[Smarty Cide]

California Chrome will win the Triple Crown

[picojim]

jinx

[Smarty Cide]

how much would this derby bet cost assuming a 20 horse field?

1$ tri cal chrome w/all w/all

[iceknight]

how much would this derby bet cost assuming a 20 horse field?

1$ tri cal chrome w/all w/all 1 x 19 x 18, lot of calculators available online.... but you won't get more than 50 bux as the payout unless a massive longshot comes 2nd...

[Smarty Cide]

really you dont think 50 bucks? derby tris always pay well... Big Brown was 2-1 and it paid 1700

[OntheRail]

how much would this derby bet cost assuming a 20 horse field?

1$ tri cal chrome w/all w/all

Did this in your other thread...
$1 Trifecta: 1 / 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20 / 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20
Bets: 342 Total: $342

[pele polo]

Right now I'm loving California Chrome, but remember there were two maidens in that field. SoCal always been so isolated, the horses tend to look better than they actually were. I do believe hoes the favorite though.

[Robert Fischer]

Was a grade 1 effort today.

[TMQ]

is Bayern still on schedule for the Ark Derby?

[Smarty Cide]

yes he is.... interesting horse

[luvalab]

how much would this derby bet cost assuming a 20 horse field?

1$ tri cal chrome w/all w/all

20 Horse Field $1 - A / All / All - Cost: $342

Kentucky Derby Trifecta payouts based on a $1 bet over past 20 years, Low: $102.70 Avg: $6281.58 High: $66,567.40

[Rex Phinney]

#1 rule in horse racing:

You never mention the words "Triple Crown" until the third Saturday in May, not the first.

I was there today and the horse looked really good, but one step at a time please

[Vinnie]

Rex:

You are totally correct. As awesome as this horse is doing right now about a half of a million things could happen between now and the Derby heaven forbid. Never mind all of the rest. However, the prospect of what might be to come is "pretty darned exciting". :) I get excited every year about the TC season, but, I must admit I haven't been as stoked in some time as I am this year.

[Valuist]

Don't we get one of these threads every year? Remember a couple years ago somebody said Gemologist would win the Triple Crown. Did he ever win another race after the Wood?

[Smarty Cide]

20 Horse Field $1 - A / All / All - Cost: $342

Kentucky Derby Trifecta payouts based on a $1 bet over past 20 years, Low: $102.70 Avg: $6281.58 High: $66,567.40


what year was the low payout?

[luvalab]

what year was the low payout?

1997 - Silver Charm, Captain Bodgit, Free House

Last 20 years, Kentucky Derby Trifecta's that paid under $1000 for a $1 bet:
2007 - Street Sense, Hard Spun, Curlin - $220.00
2004 - Smarty Jones, Lion Heart, Imperialism - $493.80
2003 - Funny Cide, Empire Maker, Peace Rules - $332.40
2000 - Fusaichi Pegasus, Aptitude, Impeachment - $217.50
1998 - Real Quiet, Victory Gallop, Indian Charlie - $610.50
1997 - Silver Charm, Captain Bodgit, Free House - $102.70
1996 - Grindstone, Cavonnier, Prince of Thieves - $300.30

[pele polo]

1997 there was a 13 horse field (12 betting interests) with several big priced toss outs.

1996 there were 19 horses however, there were only 12 betting interests. Four coupled entries and "the field"

[Smarty Cide]

1997 there was a 13 horse field (12 betting interests) with several big priced toss outs.

1996 there were 19 horses however, there were only 12 betting interests. Four coupled entries and "the field"


what what what? the field? in the derby? hows that work?

[cj]

what what what? the field? in the derby? hows that work?

There was a time the tote couldn't handle 20 separate betting interests. So, the track handicapper would lump the least likely winners together as one mutuel field. If you bet the field, you got them all.

[Thebigguy]

Wicked Strong is a MUCH more likely Triple Crown winner. Ill be using the runner up to CC yesterday in the Derby, but not CC.

[Thebigguy]

20 Horse Field $1 - A / All / All - Cost: $342

Kentucky Derby Trifecta payouts based on a $1 bet over past 20 years, Low: $102.70 Avg: $6281.58 High: $66,567.40


Did you have this info already in your stat guide thing?

[mostpost]

Wicked Strong is a MUCH more likely Triple Crown winner. Ill be using the runner up to CC yesterday in the Derby, but not CC.
Then you will be holding a losing ticket. At this point in time, California Chrome is the best chance we have had for a Triple Crown winner since Seattle Slew.

Unlike many in previous years he is a colt with plenty of foundation. Each successive race this year has been against better competition than the one before. And each time his performance has been better than the previous.

He has accomplished more than any other three year old and done so without using his maximum effort. California Chrome ran his final eighth yesterday two fifths faster than Wicked Strong ran his final eighth and he did it while being eased in the final hundred yards.

I know a lot of things can happen in the Kentucky Derby, but no horse in this years three year old crop is better equipped to deal with those problems than California Chrome.

[luvalab]

Did you have this info already in your stat guide thing?

Yes, it list the low, avg and high payouts for win, exacta, trifecta and superfecta bets. But it is based on $2 in the guide.

[Thebigguy]

Then you will be holding a losing ticket. At this point in time, California Chrome is the best chance we have had for a Triple Crown winner since Seattle Slew.

Unlike many in previous years he is a colt with plenty of foundation. Each successive race this year has been against better competition than the one before. And each time his performance has been better than the previous.

He has accomplished more than any other three year old and done so without using his maximum effort. California Chrome ran his final eighth yesterday two fifths faster than Wicked Strong ran his final eighth and he did it while being eased in the final hundred yards.

I know a lot of things can happen in the Kentucky Derby, but no horse in this years three year old crop is better equipped to deal with those problems than California Chrome.

California Chrome wont hit the board in the Derby.

[PaceAdvantage]

California Chrome wont hit the board in the Derby.You sound like the same guy who was touting Gemologist a few years back...

[raybo]

CC looks good, but let's not crown him "King" just yet. He still hasn't entered the gate in the Derby yet. :bang:

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Then you will be holding a losing ticket. At this point in time, California Chrome is the best chance we have had for a Triple Crown winner since Seattle Slew.

Unlike many in previous years he is a colt with plenty of foundation. Each successive race this year has been against better competition than the one before. And each time his performance has been better than the previous.

He has accomplished more than any other three year old and done so without using his maximum effort. California Chrome ran his final eighth yesterday two fifths faster than Wicked Strong ran his final eighth and he did it while being eased in the final hundred yards.

I know a lot of things can happen in the Kentucky Derby, but no horse in this years three year old crop is better equipped to deal with those problems than California Chrome.

These comments remind me of similar this time last year about a horse named Orb...

[Thebigguy]

You sound like the same guy who was touting Gemologist a few years back...


Nope, not me. Ill give you a hint though, I went to the Doug Salvatore school of handicapping. The guy is a genius, people should really pay attention to what he has to say.

[tanner12oz]

these payouts gets slightly distorted by appearance of .50 trifectas a few years back

[rastajenk]

California Chrome ran his final eighth yesterday two fifths faster than Wicked Strong ran his final eighth and he did it while being eased in the final hundred yards.
Jerry Baily said this too after the race, and it's something of a pet peeve of mine, or at least a contrarian opinion. I saw no evidence that he was being "eased," nor does any other easy Derby prep winner in any given year try to save something for later. Can anyone name a Derby winner that was able to use some of that saved gas from its previous easy win to prevail in a close call? I know I can't.

[RacingFan1992]

California Chrome won't win the Triple Crown. All of the past horses have been southern bred. Kentucky, Virginia, and Texas. There are always room for exceptions. 26 days and counting till the Derby. 41 days from now when the Preakness is done and the crown is not on the line, we will be talking about future things like "Zenyatta's colt winning the Triple Crown." :rolleyes: Time will tell in all of these matters.

[luvalab]

these payouts gets slightly distorted by appearance of .50 trifectas a few years back

Do you know what year they started offering $.50 Trifecta's? If so, I might be able to come up with a comparison.

[PaceAdvantage]

Nope, not me. Ill give you a hint though, I went to the Doug Salvatore school of handicapping. The guy is a genius, people should really pay attention to what he has to say.No argument from me on Doug's handicapping acumen...

[MNslappy]

guy who was touting Gemologist a few years back...

I'll never forget that guy. Or the Casino Drive guy.

Oh it's the MOST wonder-ful time......of the year!

It's like an annual sign that spring is here. First robin in your yard. Tulips coming up. Trees starting to bud. And one hit wonders logging in to P.A. to give us 50 over-the-top, hyperbole filled, increasingly psychotic posts about "the next triple crown" winner before they finally flame out and never come back after their horse doesn't sniff the board.

Pass the popcorn!

http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-basic/popcorn.gif

[precocity]

:lol: THINK HE HITS THE BOARD BUT ITS GOING TO BE A LOT OF SPEED UP FRONT KINDA LIKE Tapiture GUT FEELING! JUST SAYING.

[ArlJim78]

I'll never forget that guy. Or the Casino Drive guy.

Oh it's the MOST wonder-ful time......of the year!

It's like an annual sign that spring is here. First robin in your yard. Tulips coming up. Trees starting to bud. And one hit wonders logging in to P.A. to give us 50 over-the-top, hyperbole filled, increasingly psychotic posts about "the next triple crown" winner before they finally flame out and never come back after their horse doesn't sniff the board.

Pass the popcorn!

http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-basic/popcorn.gif
Yep, it's now officially "silly season" on horse racing forums. Google searches on "derby winner Apollo" spike during this month.

[depalma113]

. I saw no evidence that he was being "eased," .

He was absolutely being eased. Do you ride horses?

[raybo]

He was absolutely being eased. Do you ride horses?

I agree, "eased" means the jockey is not urging the horse in any way, he is not applying any pressure to keep the horse running hard. In the jockey's estimation the race is already over for his horse. He was definitely "eased" well before the wire.

"Eased" does not mean that the jockey is restraining the horse or trying to slow the horse down. It simply means that the horse is "on its own", and in most instances that means the horse begins decelerating, to some degree, because it has already run its race and has already expended most of its energy reserves.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I agree, "eased" means the jockey is not urging the horse in any way, he is not applying any pressure to keep the horse running hard. In the jockey's estimation the race is already over for his horse. He was definitely "eased" well before the wire.

"Eased" does not mean that the jockey is restraining the horse or trying to slow the horse down. It simply means that the horse is "on its own", and in most instances that means the horse begins decelerating, to some degree, because it has already run its race and has already expended most of its energy reserves.

DRF's definition:

EASED- Chart caller's assessment of a horse that is being deliberately slowed by the jockey to prevent injury or harm to the horse.

[raybo]

DRF's definition:

EASED- Chart caller's assessment of a horse that is being deliberately slowed by the jockey to prevent injury or harm to the horse.

Totally different scenario, yes, "eased" in the normal context of a race caller's opinion, does not apply in this case. But, people using the word "eased" in relation to this horse, in this race, is appropriate. What other single word would you use to describe what the jockey did? If you have a better word than "eased" then we can substitute it for "eased", I wouldn't mind, but the same thing happened, the horse was allowed to slow of its own volition, much as what happens after a horse crosses the wire. How often do you see horses who accelerate after the wire?

In the normal context, of a race caller's opinion, "eased" should probably be changed to "pulled up", as the jockey is actually "applying the brakes", not simply easing the horse.

[rastajenk]

He went the final eighth in 12 1/2 seconds, and the second place horse was not gaining on him. If he was eased, how quickly might he have finished if he wasn't? He was cruising efficiently the whole way; why would Espinoza keep banging on him? If anyone wants to think he saved something for the next one, go ahead; I'm not buying it.

[raybo]

He went the final eighth in 12 1/2 seconds, and the second place horse was not gaining on him. If he was eased, how quickly might he have finished if he wasn't? He was cruising efficiently the whole way; why would Espinoza keep banging on him? If anyone wants to think he saved something for the next one, go ahead; I'm not buying it.

Then don't buy it, it's that simple.

The fact is that the jockey was not asking the horse for more at that point, he allowed the horse to do what it wanted. Whether or not the horse decided to keeping running at the same speed is beside the point. The fact is that the horse dominated well before the wire, and had the jockey kept urging the horse he would likely have finished in a better time, expending more energy in so doing. That wasn't necessary, as he already had the race won, so in affect, the jockey did save some of the horse's remaining energy.

[ArlJim78]

Espinoza did cease doing any kind of urging in the final moments. "Wrapped up" is probably the more appropriate term. What that doesn't mean is that the horse could have finished much faster had he been urged all the way to the wire.

[PhantomOnTour]

I think Hoppertunity will finish ahead of CaliChrome in the Derby

[rastajenk]

... the jockey did save some of the horse's remaining energy.My only point is that that energy isn't bottled up and made available in a race a month later.

[raybo]

My only point is that that energy isn't bottled up and made available in a race a month later.

Understand, and that wasn't my meaning, I only meant that there was no need to further tire the horse, he will recover from the effort more quickly, and come out of the race better, if he does not expend all of his available energy.

[mostpost]

My only point is that that energy isn't bottled up and made available in a race a month later.
We agree. Obviously this is not Off Topic. :lol: